Late game Discussion/Thoughts N Bets Pending (please read)

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Theboundbook

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I have these two pending:

Ticket # Accepted Type Risk To Win Short Description
55286836-1 7/13/2008 4:34 AM Parlay 290.00 1,372.37 Baseball - 916 New York Mets -165 for Game
Baseball - 927 Chicago White Sox/Texas Rangers over 10? -115 for Game
Baseball - 928 Texas Rangers -110 for Game


55286839-1 7/13/2008 4:37 AM Parlay 350.00 467.63 Baseball - 916 New York Mets -165 for Game
Baseball - 924 Boston Red Sox -220 for Game


With the NYM getting POUNDED all day by Joe Public the line has gone up to -220!!!!! (+180 on Col).

My dilemma is:

Should I take 724/640 Col ALT RL +1.5 to go to Double my profits while protecting my bet.


Possibility from Proposition 'A': I bet 724/640 Col +1.5.

Win $2480.00 if NYM WIN BY EXACTLY ONE


If Col wins out right, I break even and lose the chance of making money with both parlays falling.

If NYM win by TWO RUNS or more, I win $1200.00.

Possibility from Proposition 'B': I bet COL on ML at +180. 355.56/640

If Col wins I break even thats it.

If NYM win I win 1444.84 after parlays both hit and the hedge loses.

Possibility from Propositon 'C': I bet COL and risk 920/1652.00 (Half of the parlay win)

Col wins I win 1012.00 with hedge hitting and parlays losing.

NYM wins I win 920.00.

Possibility from Proposition 'D':

I leave it alone and lose 640.00 or win 1840.00. (Need NYM to win in that scenario, period).

I am EXTREMELY confident that COL will LOSE tonight; but, I have been doing this for a long time and when the WHOLE WORLD seems to be betting and pushing the line one way, extremely weird and horrible things happen to the public.


PLEASE give me your thought's:

If Col

Win
 
77sticks

77sticks

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TBB..

I just got on the comp so I havent even looked at the game tonight but I would def always guarantee profit.

I would go with C
 
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bej0101

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if you NEED to cover the 640 bet, use col ml for 350 and hope you lose the bet, so you win the mets parlays..no reason to get too fancy here..mets win easily tonite but why stress the 640 loss..:00hour
 
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mjalam

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Since this is your source of income, I say option C as well guarantee yourself some money and enjoy the last game before the All Star break :0corn
 
T

Theboundbook

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bej0101 said:
if you NEED to cover the 640 bet, use col ml for 350 and hope you lose the bet, so you win the mets parlays..no reason to get too fancy here..mets win easily tonite but why stress the 640 loss..:00hour
Click to expand...


Well I am GOING TO HEDGE. But do I want to do the COL +1.5 and go for the double hit or break even is soooooooo tempting.... Especially the way favorites are losing for me in the 9th or blowing the RL in the 9th. Col has won 3 of the 8 meetings. NYM have covered the RL in all but one of the 5 wins, BUT the game they won by only one, (2-1) Pelfrey wasnt pitching. He won earlier 3-1 against Reynolds.
 
T

Theboundbook

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TOTAL Talk

TOTAL Talk

The last 3 games have gone WAAAY UNDER. In fact, possibly the last 6 if the line was 9.5 or more at Col. So why the 9.5 tonight? Everything points NYM and Under on paper. Hands down easy. But nothing is easy.
Am I over analyzing?

Or, what?
 
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