Polls--all tied
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
interesting that you chose that to express your feelings with the red faced guy (don't know what they are called...lol)...
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I'm not sure if I would go that far just yet. The scenario is essentially the same as it was in 2000 and 2004: the Republicans win both Ohio and Florida, they win the election. I can't see any possible scenario McCain wins if he doesn't carry both.
However, unlike 2004, there is one plausible (although not likely) scenario in which Obama could win the election despite losing both Ohio and Florida. I can't recall exactly how it worked out (I read it a month ago or so) but if Obama were to lose Florida and Ohio, but managed to flip three of the Bush '04 states (I think they were Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada), it would result in a tie. Which means Obama would win. Of course, Obama is likely to flip Colorado, so if he took all four, he would still win the general.
If my math is wrong, I apologize... going from memory.
No, I think that's a pretty good summary. You could probably exchange Ohio with Pennsylvania, but in general I think that it will come down to taking two of those three states.
You got the part about Iowa right; have no idea on the other states. But Iowa will be a landslide for Obama, just as the rest of the country will be, too.
That last bit was for my friend Ar182 who will be paying me 50 clams come Nov 5th...:mj07:
if you guys manage to blow this election...given that every bad thing that happens is blamed on bush(and by some ridiculous,incoherent proxy-association,mccain),then it`s time hang up your spikes...
seriously....you have a 72 year old "rino"(a lamb in lamb`s clothing..he`s totally afraid to take on obama) running vs the teflon coated media darling who nobody seems to care has zero experience,shaky friends and associates and his lone claim to fame is that he was chicago`s "al sharpton"........
you can`t mention his friends,his gaffs and flip-flops ,his lack of experience,his wife`s america hating comments,his whitey hating book or his ears......
or brilliant analysis like,
"While the Bush administration has tried to get allies to unite in applying pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program, Sen. Obama said he would bring change to American foreign policy by trying to get U.S. allies to unite in applying pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program."
it`s now or never,moonbats.....
seriously....you have a 72 year old "rino"(a lamb in lamb`s clothing..he`s totally afraid to take on obama) running vs the teflon coated media darling who nobody seems to care has zero experience,shaky friends and associates and his lone claim to fame is that he was chicago`s "al sharpton"........
you can`t mention his friends,his gaffs and flip-flops ,his lack of experience,his wife`s america hating comments,his whitey hating book or his ears......
or brilliant analysis like,
"While the Bush administration has tried to get allies to unite in applying pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program, Sen. Obama said he would bring change to American foreign policy by trying to get U.S. allies to unite in applying pressure on Iran to halt its nuclear program."
it`s now or never,moonbats.....
you know what cracks me up gw....
mccain has come out of the gate stumbling...& obama has gotten most of the coverage...people are fawning ver over the guy.....& it's tied....i am afraid what some of these poster's, like eddie & scott will do when mccain will become the next president.....
You see why polls are just that??? Now NYT has it Obama 50/41. I don't think any polls will matter till about Oct 30. You can use polls for a ra ra moment by playing, how they ask there question game. Thats why I Don't pay to much attention.
reds...
i have to know before it's too late...would you take the 50 in pennies ?....:mj07:
it was tied
from DTB's link
"Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.1% chance of winning the White House. "
adlock: Obama 320 McCain 204 Ties 14
:spotting:
Very surprised they have Indiana as a toss up. No surprise with that bastion of progressive thinking to my south. I wonder if there are any black elected officials anywhere in the commonwealth of Kentucky other than Louisville. Maybe not even there.
I doubt it.
Eddie
I doubt it.
Eddie
it was tied
from DTB's link
"Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 65.1% chance of winning the White House. "
Obama 320 McCain 204 Ties 14
:spotting:
If thats correct (65 %)I would think the +220 odds for GOP would be good wager--will wait for vp's.
Now if you want to see the "factual map" of votes last election take a look--not hard to tell what areas your strong in and would anticipate you certainly getting stronger there--its the others you need to be concerned about.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm
P.S. all those blue areas are Edward and Smurphs top vacation destination spots.
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If thats correct (65 %)I would think the +220 odds for GOP would be good wager--will wait for vp's.
Now if you want to see the "factual map" of votes last election take a look--not hard to tell what areas your strong in and would anticipate you certainly getting stronger there--its the others you need to be concerned about.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm
P.S. all those blue areas are Edward and Smurphs top vacation destination spots.
Whaddya think about -100 odds on the GOP :mj07: (jk AR). I'd take McCain at +220. His campaign will probably be as successful as the Royals are on the road on any given day.
We actually were talking about the 2008 election I thought
But here's 2004 if you don't count a 51% win in a county as red or blue, but a shade in between.
It's not surprising to me that the vote is looking like a tossup at the moment. There still remain a large number of people in this country that can somehow manage to make it to their voting booth and still think to themselves that Obama is a muslim, and of course he is black, so they can't vote for him.
It's also not surprising to me that things still remain close, considering Obama had a tough race against a very viable candidate until a short time ago, and McCain won out long ago against what would normally be considered a very weak field. Now that McCain will have to engage in public debates against someone who will be able to talk circles around him and we already know most of the arguable things about Obama, I don't hold out much hope of his support growing. Quite the opposite, IMO.
I've maintained all along that the V.P. selection is going to be extremely important in this race, and I still think that. But I don't underestimate how many people are really unhappy with the current status quo, whether polled or not. Unless things change with the economy, gas prices, food prices - everything, really, I think that will be the thing that will swing it, for any undecideds.
It's also not surprising to me that things still remain close, considering Obama had a tough race against a very viable candidate until a short time ago, and McCain won out long ago against what would normally be considered a very weak field. Now that McCain will have to engage in public debates against someone who will be able to talk circles around him and we already know most of the arguable things about Obama, I don't hold out much hope of his support growing. Quite the opposite, IMO.
I've maintained all along that the V.P. selection is going to be extremely important in this race, and I still think that. But I don't underestimate how many people are really unhappy with the current status quo, whether polled or not. Unless things change with the economy, gas prices, food prices - everything, really, I think that will be the thing that will swing it, for any undecideds.
P.S. all those blue areas are Edward and Smurphs top vacation destination spots.
No shit. In fact they are EVERYONE'S top vacation spots. Red counties are BORING, desolate places.
No shit. In fact they are EVERYONE'S top vacation spots. Red counties are BORING, desolate places.
I'll take a look for myself if I can get the handshakes and jargon mastered.
Whaddya think about -100 odds on the GOP :mj07: (jk AR). I'd take McCain at +220. His campaign will probably be as successful as the Royals are on the road on any given day.
We actually were talking about the 2008 election I thought
But here's 2004 if you don't count a 51% win in a county as red or blue, but a shade in between.
I like the more difinative map of cnn and usatoday myself Bobby--shows either yes or no--no maybes
on the wager wasn't kidding you look at these lines--
Aug 23 - 12:00 PM PARTY TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY
10001 REPUBLICAN PARTY +220
10002 DEMOCRATIC PARTY -270
10003 ANY OTHER PARTY +4000
--of course wager amount very limited--had to have some of that "unofficially" can hedge now for profit but will wait--and might keep it all--if Mac don't pick Jindal. Believe that would hurt on experience factor at his age.
Post the link if you can - this is the first one that came up and it had the same pollsters that you used in the original post, so I thought it would be useful.
