Need help with a baseball future

[theDonkey]

I am trying to nail down a baseball prop bet with a friend. The question is whether, for fantasy baseball purposes, Yovani Gollardo will earn more than Fukodome for the 2009 season.

Opponent will take the Fukodome side if I give him +140. +140 seems insane, but I am strongly considering it at +120, maybe +130. Bet would be settled by reference to valuations in Baseball Prospectus, Rototimes, something similar.

Any thoughts?

 

[Mags]

I am trying to nail down a baseball prop bet with a friend. The question is whether, for fantasy baseball purposes, Yovani Gollardo will earn more than Fukodome for the 2009 season.

Opponent will take the Fukodome side if I give him +140. +140 seems insane, but I am strongly considering it at +120, maybe +130. Bet would be settled by reference to valuations in Baseball Prospectus, Rototimes, something similar.

Any thoughts?

Gallardo in a heartbeat. He should be -200 in my opinion. His Knee injury will not affect him next year. He, when healthy, is a top 20 starter in the NL. Look at his numbers (not W-L as he got no support) this year and last year.

Fuk is an overrated player - if he was American he probably wouldnt' even start. Fuk's upside is .280, 15 HR, 75 RBI and 10 SB.

Gallardo's upside? I could EASILY see him go 18-10, 3.30 ERA next year - IF the Crew pick up a #1 starter. If the Crew does not, and Gallardo gets matched against everyone's #1 - that will kill the wins, but won't affect anything else.

 

[marcb1oo5]

i agree mags, just think what he'll do if they keep sheets and sabathia and have gallardo as their #3

 

[Mags]

i agree mags, just think what he'll do if they keep sheets and sabathia and have gallardo as their #3

There is ZERO chance the Brewers keep Sabathia AND Sheets. And probably only a 5% chance they keep either.

They have both stated they are testing FA - and I don't see the Crew paying $20M a year to either pitcher. If they did, it would be CC - they won't pay Sheets that kind of money (which he WILL get from someone) due to his injury history.

 

[redsfann]

There is ZERO chance the Brewers keep Sabathia AND Sheets. And probably only a 5% chance they keep either.

They have both stated they are testing FA - and I don't see the Crew paying $20M a year to either pitcher. If they did, it would be CC - they won't pay Sheets that kind of money (which he WILL get from someone) due to his injury history.

well said. BOTH CC and Benny are injury prone and the Crew would be wise to pass on both for the kind of coin they will command in FA this offseason.
But if that defense behind the pitchers doesn't get much better(specifically referring to last night), you could have 4 Cy Young winners on that team and they won't win anything that matters...