'08 AFL Systems week #20

[PAWAQATSI]

Overall >> 20 - 12 @ 62.5%

Bankroll @ 94.71%


Last two system plays from the system.

Port Adelaide +29.5 versus North Melbourne

My Roos have only topped this number once in their last 10 games when we touched up the Blues two games back. Countering this, we are 5 from 5 at the MCG this season with 2 of those wins covering this number. We do need to win to hold on to 4th spot going into next weeks finals series. Here's hoping we trip over the line by a couple goals only!



Brisbane +15.5 versus Sydney

Sydney have won just 2 of their last 8 games (by 2 & 4pts) and are right out of form. Brisbane aren't exactly setting the world on fire with only 3 wins in their last 10 and are now out of finals contention. Though only 3 times in those 10 have they been beaten by more than 15pts.


Let's roll out these mofos for the last time in '08 ...... :burnout :burnout

 

[Jig-Jag]

I have know idea how Brisbane are going to play this saturday. They've pretty much been heart broken from there finals blow. In all honesty, they had that game themselves. They blew it against Carlton. Coming back and leading by 30+ then losing it in the 4th is pretty bad. They probably don't deserve to be in the finals.

I hope your system is right, because i have know idea how Brisbane are going to look at this game.

GL!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Port Adelaide 148 smashed North Melbourne 72


The saddest way to ever win money is when it involves the whipping of your own footy team and watching them throw away a double chance in the finals! :142squint



Come on Brisbane.....lift my spirits tonight!!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah thanks Brisbane. How bout kicking straight you freakin clowns!

Sydney 114 hammered Brisbane 53


Final Overall >> 21 - 13 @ 61.7%

Bankroll @ 91.5%

Very disapointing result given the incredible surge to pass 200% by week 6, off a 9-1 start. Meh....what can ya do!



Back again next season.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pawa:

You don't need to listen to me, but what is your betting strategy?

I'm not talking about your selection process. That seems solid!

Are you using the Kelly Criterion? Or some variant of it?

Just my opinion, but if you come in at close to 60%, you should be clearing some profit for your pocket. Are you sure you're not betting this too aggressively?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

G'day Chucky

Yeah I played these system picks at 15% of my bankroll this season. Too aggresive? Yeah probably guilty of that. I know it will hit 60% historically over the journey. I guess I'm just not satisfied with making a few grand a season and have aimed for the bigger payday, willing to risk a small loss if it turns pear-shaped like the second half of this season.

I'd rather have a crack at bringing home some serious dough when it has a good year like it has in the past. 300% in '06 and '03 (from memory), been a few 200+% years along the way. The odd stinker season (sub 100%) only costs me small so I'll wear those.

The "greed valve" can be hard to control when your a gambler brother!! :mj07:

Madjackers can play them however they want and I'm sure I've done more good than damage to the accounts of those that have stopped by to have a read.

I'll move on to NFL season and tail Christo & a couple of the other guns on here to get the bankroll healthy again for next years AFL assault.

:toast:

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fair enough, brother.

Good luck. I've studied the Kelly Criterion before. I know that progressive betting is a killer if you come in below expectation.

Like I said, you don't need to listen to me. You are right to believe in your system. And you've had very solid systems. So Good Luck down-under, mate.