nfl plays week #1...

[AR182]

adding....

det.-3....

this game is between 2 teams headed in opposite directions.

after their 4-0 preseason, i think detroit is a confident team that is on the rise. getting rid of mike martz as off. coordinator was a very big plus....his offensive philosophy did not fit with the type of players the lions have...& with both their offensive & defensive lines being upgraded, i think det. can challenge for the playoffs this year. in addition detroit has started the seasons pretty fast since martinelli has been there as coach.

on the other hand atl. is a team in the rebuilding stages....new coach with new systems on both sides of the football, & a rookie qb making his nfl debut.

a system supporting this play....

play on - favorites (detroit) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ats losses.

since 1983 the ats record is........29-8.....78.4%

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is....9-3....75%


good luck

 

[Morris]

GL this season AR !!

 

[AR182]

thanks morris...appreciate it...

adding....


n.o.-3......

i expect n.o. to bounce back from an off year last season. they have a very well balanced offense led by one of the top qbs in the league.on defense i think their front 7 is improved from last year, but are still vulnerable in the 2ndary, but don't see tb capitalizing on this much.

tb is banged up on offense....garcia & galloway have been injured during much of training camp & played very little during the preseason....in addition their best running back, cadillac williams will be out the first 6 games this season & they have also lost one of their top offensive lineman ( joseph) for the season. their defense seems to still be good, but i see them wearing down as the game goes on because i don't see the tb offense doing too much.

a few things supporting this play....

in week 1, home favorites that had a worse su record than their opponent the prior year are 22-7 ats since 1997......75.8%

play on n.o.

play against - any team (tb) - solid team from last season - outgained their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is........36-12.......75%


good luck

 

[Senor Capper]

Here's another System Play...


Play the UNDER in Week 1 if an AWAY FAVORITE won 11 or more games Last Year.

1990-2007 22-8 73%

DALLAS GAME UNDER and JACKSONVILLE GAME UNDER

I played the JAGS but don't have the nads to take the Cowboy game.

 

[Hooks]

Al, likin the Saints also GL

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

everything is just great right now, thx for ask.... all the best this year AR......... looking forward for ur plays !!


vicc

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

as always, i love reading your posts, not going to wager this year but in my online contest i will select whatever plays you have mr al, best of luck to you this year, hope you and the mrs are well.

bon chance mon ami

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.

dr. love..as i tell others you follow me at your own risk....


adding...

cin.-1(120)....

cin. was without much of their top 4 receivers for the preseason, but all of them are scheduled to play sunday. balt. is in worse shape....they are scheduled to start their rookie qb, behind a bad offensive line & with their top runner hurting with a knee injury that has kept him out of much of their training camp. on defense balt. may be also without their star safety reed....& while balt. still has a good defense, palmer has proven that he can pass on them by averaging about 260 ypg (67% completion) with a 12-4 ratio & with cin. being 6-1 su / ats with an average score of cin.24....balt.17 in their last 7 games against balt.

a couple of systems....

in game 1, play on a non-monday road favorite of less than 3 points before a non-monday contest in its next game vs. an oponent not playing a division home game in its next contest.....

since 1980 the ats record is......10-0

in game 1, play on a afc road favorite of 3 points or less with a total of 38+ points.....

since 2001 the ats record is......8-0.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

denver-2.5 (125).....

denver spent the offseason improving their defensive front & will win this game comfortably if they will be able to contain the raiders rushing attack..

also from 1980-1987 mnf division home dogs were 19-4 ats...but since then they are 16-27 ats....

one of the systems that applied to cin. also applies for denver..

in game 1, play on a afc road favorite of 3 points or less with a total of 38+ points.....

since 2001 the ats record is......8-0.



good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

miami+3....

i am playing this because a respected capper on another forum wrote the following....

there have been 7 teams that have gone 1-15 over the period of a full NFL 16-game season. They are:

'89...Dallas
'90...New England
'91...Indy
'96...Jets
'00...San Diego
'01...Carolina
& '07...Miami

Here are the results of their 1st game (Week 1) of the following season:

Dallas won s/u 17-14 as a +3 dog at home...going 7-9 for the year, 5-3 s/u at home....

New England won s/u 16-7 as a +9 dog on the road...going 6-10 for the year, 4-4 s/u at home......

Indy won s/u 14-3 as a +5 dog at home...going 9-7 for the year, 4-4 s/u at home.....

Jets won s/u 41-3 as a +6 dog on the road...going 9-7 for the year, 5-3 s/u at home.....

San Diego won s/u 30-3 as a -2' fav at home...going 5-11 for the year, 4-4 s/u at home ....

Carolina won s/u 10-7 as a +2 dog at home...going 7-9 for the year, 4-4 s/u at home....

& now Miami...

6 for 6 s/u and ats is pretty damn good if you ask me. 5 of the games went Under while the other (41-3) was a push.

also...

Since '89, Week 1 Home Dogs on Sunday vs a Conference Opponent and a Total of <=39pts., and the team has a Non-Conf. Opp. next week are:

4-2 s/u & 6-0 ats....

if their Opp. in Week 1 is a Divisional Opp.

3-0 s/u by 17.0ppg & 3-0 ats (of course)

i'll follow him & take miami....

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding.....

under 41 det. / atl.....

atl. will start 1st round draft choice qb matt ryan.....they also have a new coach & a revised off. line which imo will cause growing pains and an offense that will struggle to start the season & one that will rely on their runners turner & norwood.

det. is also changing their off. philosophy to primarily a more conservative offense which will be going against a falcon defense that ranked #27 against the run last year.

some trends....

these 2 teams have combined for a 7-1 under record in game 1 of the season over the last 4 years......

i read somewhere that week 1 dome games have produced a perfect under record going 9-0 under the last 9 times.

good luck

 

[Cie]

i read somewhere that week 1 dome games have produced a perfect under record going 9-0 under the last 9 times.

good luck

Very interesting. GL today

 

[trolln4walii]

GL today AR and all the best for a great '08

With you on the Lions and Saints

 

[gardenweasel]

thanks morris...appreciate it...

adding....


n.o.-3......

i expect n.o. to bounce back from an off year last season. they have a very well balanced offense led by one of the top qbs in the league.on defense i think their front 7 is improved from last year, but are still vulnerable in the 2ndary, but don't see tb capitalizing on this much.

tb is banged up on offense....garcia & galloway have been injured during much of training camp & played very little during the preseason....in addition their best running back, cadillac williams will be out the first 6 games this season & they have also lost one of their top offensive lineman ( joseph) for the season. their defense seems to still be good, but i see them wearing down as the game goes on because i don't see the tb offense doing too much.

a few things supporting this play....

in week 1, home favorites that had a worse su record than their opponent the prior year are 22-7 ats since 1997......75.8%

play on n.o.

play against - any team (tb) - solid team from last season - outgained their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is........36-12.......75%


good luck

i added n.o. myself....thinking that shockey adds a real dangerous dimension to that offense..

looking very hard at buying the brownies up to 7 and taking a whack...

g.l.

 

[Senor Capper]

good luck this season my Arizona Amigo :00hour

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Great angles, AR!

Nice write ups and excellent information.....love that stuff, especially that 'teams who were 1-15 LY' angle.....i remember that '01 minny/carolina game as a serious suicide pool blood letting, so thanks for the memories! :mj07:

Good luck today and this whole season. :toast: