college plays for week #3....

[AR182]

14-8..

texas-23(120).....

i wanted to post this play because i saw that some books in vegas are up to 25....

i'll have a writeup when i get a chance..

good luck.

 

[Irish]

AR,
Like texas a lot..... a good home game for McCoy to air it out. Ark just is a bad team from top to bottom.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish....

i am holding off with doing a writeup on the texas play because i want to see what direction hurricane ike is heading.....i will bet arkansas if it looks like it will head to where the game is being played.....

adding....

so.fla...ml(160)....

first off this game has the #19 team favored over the #13 team.

i watched most of last week's kansas game vs. lou tech because i had kansas....& it appeared to me that this years kansas team is not as explosive as last year's version. when i compared results between last year's production at the beginning of the season (when bcs teams play weaker teams) to this year's, i noticed that kansas was scoring a little less than 20 ppg less than last year's team. the reason for this is because kansas is replacing 5 starters from last year's offensive team & it doesn't look like they have replaced their 1000 yard back (mcanderson) from last year. in total, kansas returns 15 starters with 9 on the defensive side of the ball where they were the #8 defense in the nation last season with a +21 turnover margin....but they faced the 100th toughest schedule in the country & are missing this year their top defensive player (corner aquib talib) who was responsible for 25% of the turnovers.

i like the way south florida plays ball & am a big fan of their coach, who i think is very under-rated....& i particularly like the way their defense flies around to the ball.last year sfla took on the #24th toughest schedule in the country & were pretty high up in the polls for most of the year until they lost a few games & was embarrassed in the bowl game...& eventually fell out of the final poll. this year sfla returns 17 starters including 10 on an offense that averaged 35 ppg last season. they have some good play makers in qb grothe & ford (who is listed as probable) at rb. on the defensive side of the ball their are several playmakers, but the one who stands out the most is their de selvie,who racked up 31.5 tackles for loss last season.....i think this guy has a combination of speed & power & should wreak havoc on a rather inexperienced kansas offensive line.

kansas is 2-9 in their last 11 road openers......while sfla is 50-11 at home.

a few systems supporting the moneyline play...

play on - a home team vs. the money line (s.fla) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the qb returning.

over the last 10 seasons the record is.......37-5......88.1%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......13-1


play on - home favorites vs. the money line (s. fla) - after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season.

over the last 10 seasons the record is......27-1........96.4%

the situation's record this season is......3-0

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......18-0

since 1992 the situation's record is......38-2


play on - home favorites vs. the money line (s. fla) - with 9 or more offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season.

over the last 5 seasons the record is.....51-4.......92.7%

the situation's record this season is......7-0

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......43-3


good luck

 

[Corley1011]

GL this week AR!! Im on Texas with ya... took Kansas +3.5... Hey if USF wins by 3 we both win!! :00hour

 

[Sun Tzu]

Probably announced tomorrow but I am hearing that the game will be postponed til Sept 27 based on the current Ike track...

 

[Toledo Prophet]

AR:

Interesting stuff on the KU-USF game. I keep going back and forth on this one as I enjoy the way they both play and how each has elevated their programs.

What I keep going back to is the fact that the summer line for this game was USF -6/6.5. Now, its -3/3.5. Nothing has really altered my preseason expectations of each team, so it looks like there's value on the USF side of the coin given how the line has moved.

Good stuff as always.....looking forward to see what other plays and angles you unearth for us this week!

 

[AR182]

Probably announced tomorrow but I am hearing that the game will be postponed til Sept 27 based on the current Ike track...

just in case they don't postpone the game i decided to get off of the tex play....there are just too many questions about the weather forecast for the austin area on sat. so my play looks like this....

tex.-23(120)
ark.+25 (130)

good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

iowa-13 (120)....

yeah i know about the rivalry & the closeness of their games....but i see iowa revenging last year's loss by 3 tds.

iowa lost last year in ugly fashion because they had some injurie & suspensions.....& iowa state,with its senior leadership that no longer exists took advantage in what was the first win for then first-season head coach chizik. now many of those injured players are back for iowa....& i think iowa as a team is back to where it was a few years ago....as they have shown that they have a balanced attack (back-to-back games of over 200 yards both running and passing) & it also seems that their defense has also improved from the past few years.....& although i like this iowa st coach (won my biggest bet of the year last week with them), they do have some weaknesses that i think will be exploited by iowa. eventhough state opened the season with 92 points on the scoreboard in two wins, they have yet to reach 400 yards in a game, taking advantage of 10 turnovers...& their defense that has allowed 423 yards rushing at 5.4 per carry.

a system that supports this play....

play on - home favorites (iowa) - after shutting out their last opponent against opponent after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

since 1992 the ats record is........22-4........84.6%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

baylor +3(125)......

i'm playing this because baylor is home & they have adapted better to their new coach & his system better than wash. st. has adapted to their new coach...also wash. st's qb is making his first start on the road.


marshall-3....

marshall has 17 starters back from last year's team & i have seen that they are on a few magazine's most improved list. memphis is just 2-8 ats in cusa road openers and 12-18 in cusa road games.,,,,also the home team has covered all 3 meetings.


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding.....

ark.st...ml (125)....

this game is a sandwhich game for so. miss...they played a tough game last week against auburn last week & next week they open league play against marshall.

ark. st.is not a typical sun belt stiff...they have a very good running back (arnold), a pretty good passing attack & lead the ncaa in the turnover margin....last year when they played, ark. st. outgained so. miss in losing 16-10.

a few systems supporting this moneyline play....

play on - home favorites vs. the money line (ark. st) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced qb, in the first month of the season.

over the last 10 seasons the record is.........25-1...........96.2%


play on - a home team vs. the money line (ark.st) - after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced qb vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season.

over the last 10 seasons the record is.......22-3...............88%


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

n.mex.+11.....

i admit that arizona is a better team than n. mex.& eventhough this is a revenge game for arizona, this is still a tough spot for them because they are coming off winning 2 routs at home & open up league play next week against ucla....& with az. having a young defense i think n. mex. can keep the score within single digits.......also a stat site that i get e-mails from project n. mex. outrushing arizona by about 20 yards....& fundamentally taking a dog who can outrush the favorite is a good play.

some trends....

arizona is 4-13 ats as an away favorites off a su win in their last game.

arizona is 6-19 ats as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

n. mex. is 7-3 ats in the last 10 games vs pac-10 schools.

new mexico is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) off a home loss since 1992.


a few systems....

play against - a road team (arizona) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning, in the first month of the season.

the ats record since 1992 is......25-5.........83.3%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......10-0

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is.....14-2


also college football teams playing their third consecutive home game to open the season are 25-11 ats in non-conference games when installed as a home dog, including 13-1 ats since 1992 if their opponent comes in off a win.



good luck

 

[Skipper]

AR - Liking the Iowa plays, that one screams of trap and I think ISU is getting some love. Before last week, I wouldn't have thought that Iowa could score 14, but I think they are much improved

Tailin you on this one!:00hour

Would love you to call in on my radio show if you are ever interested

 

[turksure]

Rolling with you on Ark St, S Miss was 1 of 14 on 3td down conversions last week. The Auburn score was mis-leading as several turnovers stopped deep scores drives. Look for a 7-14 point victory by ASU. GL

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding....

boise st.-16 (120).....

imo this is a very tough spot for bg & a very good spot for boise. for the past 2 weeks bg has been beaten up by 2 physical teams (pitt & minn) & i wonder how thrilled they are to go play on the blue carpet. meanwhile boise has been off a week (beat idaho st 49-7 & are 3-1 ats after a bye with this coach) & is probably eager to play a game.

also in their 2 games bg's rebuilding offensive line hasn't affored their qb enough time to find receivers down the field......while their defensive limitations should play into the explosive boise st hands....a team that is averaging 46 ppg in its last 11 games....

a few trends....

boise st is 20-6 ats in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992.

boise is 16-4 ats in home games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992.

boise is 40-16 ats in home games since 1992.

bg is 5-15 ats in their last 20 games when losing as a dog

here is something interesting that i read.....

over the years home college football teams in game 2 playing off a win with a week of rest & who won 10 or more games last year are 19-3 ats the next game.......3 teams this week apply to this system...boise st, lsu, & usc...


good luck

 

[spang]

Going to grab a small slice of S Fla with you. The home side looks mighty tasty to me

Best of luck this week

 

[AR182]

thanks spang...appreciate it...

adding.....

ill-24(120)...

this may be a sucker bet, but i have capped this game pretty extensively & i keep coming up with ill. winning this game by at least 4 tds...so if it is a sucker play then i am sucked in.

illinois next game is against penn.st but it is in 2 weeks..i wouldn't take ill. if the psu game was next week....so laf.is illinois only game game over a 3 week period...because of this i think zorn will keep his foot on the pedal....there is nothing like game action to keep the team focused. i read that the ill. coach is not happy with the way his defense has played for the 1st 2 games of the season...so this week he has really tried to tighten the defense by running tough scrimmages during the week.....& against a 1 dimensional attack like laf., i think illinois will pretty much contain their offense.

last year laf. was #119th in team defense & judging from the results in the game against so. miss, they haven't improved because they gave up over 600 total yards. with illinois offense spreading out the laf. defense, i can't see illinois not doing major damage...& because laf. is a poor throwing team i don't expect any back door cover.

a system supporting the play....

play on - favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (illinois) - after scoring 42 points or more last game against opponent after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

since 1992 the ats record is.......40-13.............75.5%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....19-4....82.6%

i read that ncaa teams coming into game #2 & playing off a loss with a week of rest are 25-41 (37.8%) ats if the game is on the road...play against lafayette..


good luck

 

[Lilbillshoops]

AR -

Where do you get all these great odds? What site do you use? It seems like all your games are (120) ...??


Also, the forecast is for some good rain in Iowa City, do you still see the hawks by more than 13??


Thanks a lot and keep up the good work!!

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl this week ar1 :toast:

 

[AR182]

AR -

Where do you get all these great odds? What site do you use? It seems like all your games are (120) ...??


Also, the forecast is for some good rain in Iowa City, do you still see the hawks by more than 13??


Thanks a lot and keep up the good work!!

i use the books that are sponsors here....when you see -120 it means that i bought a 1/2 point

 

[AR182]

thanks lmm...

i received a refund on my baylor play because the game is cancelled....