Line movements for week #4....

[Theboundbook]

What do you guys think of posting games during the week that have moved 2 pts or more on public betting only and post em here.... Such as:

Utah started at -7 -115 and is now at -9. I got in at min 7.5 and now I am seriously thinking to go the other way....

Ark has dropped from +10.5 to +8.5....

These are two that have jumped out... Any others? (And be sure to state that if a line movement was because of an injury or lineup change and not public betting to post that reason)

 

[#cruncher]

Not a bad idea...I can just tell you that I never like to go against a line movement when it has moved at least 2.5 pts...Just a quirk of mine...:shrug:

 

[Steve's plays]

Utah is now -9.5!

 

[spang]

And just who exactly is the "public" ??

 

[IX_Bender]

And just who exactly is the "public" ??

You know, the average joe who puts hundreds/thousands down on Wednesday afternoon for a non televised Saturday game because he wants to get a good line.

 

[countinguy]

Personally I like to look at the open lines like at covers and then look at pinny line, gives a good idea what side u should be on, and look at the consensuss.

But before I do that I handicap the game, and use the above to take the bet or throw it out of my picks.

 

[Blackman]

Insane line movement in the UNC vs Va Tech game in my opinion.

Saw Va Tech -1 early Sunday night, and they are +3.5 in some spots now.

Steve -- where you see that 9.5 for Air Force. That rushing game catching ten would be really worth a shot.

 

[Blackman]

Just saw the 9.5 at 5Dimes. 10's are coming.

 

[spang]

You know, the average joe who puts hundreds/thousands down on Wednesday afternoon for a non televised Saturday game because he wants to get a good line.

Thats what I was thinking, I mean, after all, that all of us guys on this public forum could not be the public correct?? :shrug: We are all much smarter than that.

 

[el JB]

played 'em today @9 and will play 'em at 11

played 'em today @9 and will play 'em at 11

Utah (-7.5) at Air Force - 1:00pm Pacific - Game #341-342
"here is consensus opinion that Utah is talented enough to be a legitimate BCS party crasher. They are solid in all areas and have won 11 of their last 12 games with the only loss coming by a touchdown at BYU last season. There is little chance of losing focus vs Air Force this week as both teams come in undefeated, Utah hosts Weber State next week, and the Utes will be looking to avenge a home loss to Air Force last season in which their top QB, WR, and RB missed due to injury. Air Force returned just 8 starters from last year, a low number even for a service academy, and two of them are already out due to injury. The Falcons have gotten by with a lot of good fortune the last two weeks defeating a struggling Wyoming team with the help of +4 turnovers and then beating a badly distracted Houston team last week with the help of +2 turnovers. The Houston game was played off campus in Dallas in very wet and windy conditions which heavily favored Air Force's ground based offense and suspect pass defense. Houston also sat out two key defensive starters with injuries. The Falcons still gave up 534 yards and were outgained by 154 total yards. Air Force has completed just 3 of 11 passes in its two games vs 1-A opponents. That is not going to get it done this week. Utah will be better on both sides of the ball and will win this game convincingly. Utah has what it takes against an AF team in rebuilding mode"

 

[Theboundbook]

Thats what I was thinking, I mean, after all, that all of us guys on this public forum could not be the public correct?? :shrug: We are all much smarter than that.

We better be or we wont be lasting more than a season or two. (One if your married. Wife will block gambling right. I know mine would if it wasnt profitable.....)

 

[Theboundbook]

Any new big movements today that need to be looked at.

Well, guess what? Today's game Baylor vs UCONN) was at least a 2 pt movement (my book started at -11 and ended at -13), and again another winner ATS for the antipublic line movement.....

System (taking teams that have had the line move 2 or more pts on the day of the game in their favor:

3-0 ATS

2-1 Straight up dog ML plays.....

Col +3 n +130, Louisville +6 n +200, and Baylor +13 n they lost by only 3 :scared

Not sure if this is just a lucky coincidence this week since I started really watching and tracking it, or if I really am onto something here. :shrug: :shrug:

Feel free to post the teams, the original line and what its at at that time and any thoughts you have either way. Another thing I have noticed is when I see quotes like, "No way they dont cover this low line... They will win by 20+ above the spread." Those quotes (I have posted many that way over the years myself and gotten crushed) have been generally a non winner....

Please folks, help me out on this thread and together, maybe, just maybe, we can put together and actually hit a few 10 teamers this season.... :142smilie :shrug: :142smilie

Thanks in advance for anyone adding info to this thread!

 

[Theboundbook]

I think North Carolina has slowly worked up 4 pts.... I think they started as a DOG! And now they are at -3.5 and -4..... Am I right that this came out as a dog?

 

[Blackman]

I think North Carolina has slowly worked up 4 pts.... I think they started as a DOG! And now they are at -3.5 and -4..... Am I right that this came out as a dog?

Yes posted this earlier in the thread, they opened as a 1.5 point underdog.

I booked Va Tech at +3 thinking it wouldn't keep going, boy was I wrong.

 

[jdm_s2k]

i forgot...who is COL playin against?

 

[Theboundbook]

i forgot...who is COL playin against?

Col played Thurs. night against Ranked #21 opponent West Virginia. Col was +3 or +2 depending book and time. ML was +120 to +135 I saw. COL won by 3 in OT #1.....

 

[Blackman]

Both games with wild movement, Va Tech and Air Force, prove to be winners. Cut it close but where the right side.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

SJSU opened at +10 and now they're at +7. I got them at +8. FWIW, I wouldn't take Stanford if the line went all the way down to 5. :shrug:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Both games with wild movement, Va Tech and Air Force, prove to be winners. Cut it close but where the right side.

I don't know about the Va. Tech game, but every service on the face of the earth was on Utah today. Don't know if that caused a jump or not though...

 

[Theboundbook]

Looks like both Va Tech and AF both cover with all that money pouring in on their opponents the closing line were winners on the dogs... again.... and again Va Tech even won Straight up!!!!