Week # 5 Anti Public Line Movement "System"

[Theboundbook]

I know that if you used this system this week, you absolutely crushed it. We will see if this stands the test of time. I will post the opening lines I get and then on Friday night (hopefully if I have time again) or Sat morn. I will see what comes up.

I would appreciate anybody's help on this with ANY team or side. I know I am going to miss some of these or not know that the line moved because of a sickness or lineup change that may not be stated on every site. (Or poss. even weather).

Good luck you guys this week and see you at the cashier's window.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Danny Sheridan shows the line movement pretty well.

 

[Theboundbook]

Tulane up to -18.5 since yesterday from 17.5.... Looking like SMU may be the first play of the week. I will wait till right before game time to decide what up. USC still at -25; what it opened at for me yesterday.

Louisville has gone up .5 pts from 3 to 3.5 so far.... Definately watching these weeknight plays for this system has been perfect so far and 2 of 3 last week's dogs won SU!!!!

 

[Master Capper]

How far does the line have to move in your system for you to consider a play anti public? I would not consider a line move of .5 to be a huge public move on a play. In my opinion, the early line moves are from books being hit by sharps and the books are adjusting the lines, and the very late line moves are usually also from sharps. I think it is also possible for a well known shark to force a line move with a large bet. Would this theory work better using the % system of which side is being hit hardest? This would more than likely give a true reading of which way the public is going.

 

[Master Capper]

Just to follow up, but using your anti-public theory and taking it a step further then Tulane would fall into a public play. The line came out at 16.5 and was hit early and adjusted to 17.5, but today the line went to 18. Also, according to tracking sites, Tulane has been played 73% of the time when this game has been bet. Now, basing your theory on the anti public play plus % overload of a side, then the five games that had a similiar % on one side and line movement over 2 points resulted in the public play going 0-4-1. Thus, according to this theory then SMU would be a large play

 

[Trizzle]

early move vs. late move theory

early move vs. late move theory

Years ago, I religiously tracked the early week line moves with the thought being that the Monday and Tuesday line moves were because of "wise guy" money. (The Friday and Saturday line moves being more public money). Overall I came out about 50-50 so it wasn't worth the effort. The only exception being a huge move, 4.5 or more points. On a "huge" move, especially with a 3 or 4 point move early (mon, tues, wed) I hit about 70%. Obviously things have changed because in the days I was tracking there was no online wagering.

I still think the huge line move, which happens very rarely, exposes a poor number posted by the linesmakers. The only example I can think of off the top of my head this year is the Florida-Hawaii game in week 1. The line opened at 27 and quickly went to 32, 33, and eventually went to 37 or more in some places. I felt the early week move was smart money or syndicate money and they turned out to be right - easy winner. Looking at the usual websites, only 57% of the bettors had Florida; not near enough to account for this astronomical move.

All that being said, I don't think the "public" bets Saturday games on Monday. Just my opinion. On a 5 or 6 point move, my money is playing "with" the move.

 

[spang]

I don't think the "public" bets Saturday games on Monday.

BINGO !!

 

[Theboundbook]

Just to follow up, but using your anti-public theory and taking it a step further then Tulane would fall into a public play. The line came out at 16.5 and was hit early and adjusted to 17.5, but today the line went to 18. Also, according to tracking sites, Tulane has been played 73% of the time when this game has been bet. Now, basing your theory on the anti public play plus % overload of a side, then the five games that had a similiar % on one side and line movement over 2 points resulted in the public play going 0-4-1. Thus, according to this theory then SMU would be a large play

Yes it is definately shaping up for SMU bet from me. I saw (at my book) 17.5 yesterday and now it is at 18.5. Need another point (maybe a half for a smaller bet.)

One more thing I am doing to tweak my system some is that I am going to wait till the last 30 min. (before other people start hammering bets the way I do (similar thinking :shrug: )) and then make the decision. So if it hits -19.5 tomorrow and come Thurs its at 18, then no bet. If it stays at 19.5 or 19 then definately a bet.... Does that make sense?

If SMU wins S.U. I am gonna chit my pants (if they end up being a 19.5 pt dog)....

Again, I have tracked neither of the teams. read nothing on any of the sports site's writeups. I am just using line movements. We'll see how I do this week. Especially on the weeknight games. Last week they were 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU ML winners!

 

[Theboundbook]

Years ago, I religiously tracked the early week line moves with the thought being that the Monday and Tuesday line moves were because of "wise guy" money. (The Friday and Saturday line moves being more public money). Overall I came out about 50-50 so it wasn't worth the effort. The only exception being a huge move, 4.5 or more points. On a "huge" move, especially with a 3 or 4 point move early (mon, tues, wed) I hit about 70%. Obviously things have changed because in the days I was tracking there was no online wagering.

I still think the huge line move, which happens very rarely, exposes a poor number posted by the linesmakers. The only example I can think of off the top of my head this year is the Florida-Hawaii game in week 1. The line opened at 27 and quickly went to 32, 33, and eventually went to 37 or more in some places. I felt the early week move was smart money or syndicate money and they turned out to be right - easy winner. Looking at the usual websites, only 57% of the bettors had Florida; not near enough to account for this astronomical move.

All that being said, I don't think the "public" bets Saturday games on Monday. Just my opinion. On a 5 or 6 point move, my money is playing "with" the move.

Completely agree. Again, I am just starting to seriously follow (and not just talk about it, but bet my money too) and I had the best week EVER in college foots and the best Saturday I have ever had in profits.

Please guys, DO NOT sink your house or anything into these picks I am coming up with no matter how excited I seem. I am very emotional (ups and downs) with games and I hope that this continues to work.... It has most of this season, but I really hadnt bet any of them till last week. (and that's when the posts came and luckily all those wins....) :00hour :00hour

 

[JBBrown2]

Okay,

I did some highlighting just a minute ago and found some interesting stuff on games played thus far.

Obviously these could be different on which site you use but I like this site for movements

Trend 1

Play on a fav in which the line as moved up 2 or more points from open in which the public % is very high on the fav.

basically i think these type games are ones in which the linesmakers can't put a line out that is high enough. Blowout games basically.

9-1 ATS
10-0 SU

ARI/TOL -22 TO -24 (W)
TEX TECH/NEV -9 TO -11 (W)
IOWA ST/KENT -7.5 TO -10 (W)
KAN/LA TECH -20.5 TO -22.5 (W)
BC/KENT -9 TO -11 (W)
KSU/NT -24.5 TO -28.5 (EASY W)
OKLS ST/WASH ST -5 TO -7.5 (W)
OHIO/WYO -10 TO -14 (L)
FLA/HAW -32.5 TO -36.5 (W)
SCAR/NCST -11.5 TO -14 (W)

Will see how it does this week. I am a dog player so would be very nervracking but might at least help not going against some of the bigger favs

Trend 2

Play against favs in which the line drops 1 point or more with public percentage on the fav

9-2 ATS
7 SU WINS!!!!!!!

WV/ECU -9 TO -7.5 (W SU)
OLEMISS/WAKE -8.5 TO -7 (W)
AKRON/SYR -5.5 TO -4 (W SU)
BYU/WASH -10 TO -8 (W)
MICH ST/EWASH -24 TO -21 (L)
MINN/BG -4.5 TO -3.5 (W SU)
MARY/MIDTENST -13.5 TO -12.5 (W SU) **** BIG ML
TEXAM/NEWMEX -3 TO -2 (L)
KENT/LOUI -5.5 TO -3.5 (W SU)
ALA/CLEM -6 TO -4.5 (W SU)
MISSST/LA TECH -9.5 TO -7 (W SU)
FLINT/KAN -38 TO -36.5 (W)

I LIKE THIS ONE ALOT MORE AND DOES MAKE SOME SINCE!

I'M STILL TRYING TO SEE HOW THE GAMES THIS PAST WEEK DID

I AM TIRED OF TYPING. YA'LL FIGURE OUT WHAT YOU WANNA DO BITCHES

GOOD LUCK
JB

 

[turksure]

Toledo -20 up from 17, looks to go higher

 

[Theboundbook]

I HAVE ONE TEAM that I ALWAYS GO with no matter what. That team is PENN ST.

They go go go... And have covered easily the 1st 3 games.

 

[Hersh24]

Well I'm not a master of handicapping by any stretch of the imagination, but I've got a "theory" on this whole deal. When the line movement is minimal, and or opposite of where the public money is going, then I bet with the house. For instance, last week, the opening line in Indy/Jax was Indy -6, and by gametime most books had it at -4.5. However, according to sportsbook.com, 77% of the line money was on Indy, yet the line moved down. This is always a red flag for me that I've been following the past couple of years with success. I haven't found a website yet though that shows % for college only pros. Just my two cents but best of luck to all us cappers on MJ.

 

[Trizzle]

Hersh, i like your idea. Sort of the smart money vs. public money strategy. the problem is that the public money is ALWAYS on the favorite. ********* will give percentages on the college games. the problem is the same. High percentage always on the fav's.

 

[Theboundbook]

Well surprisingly the line for USC has gone from -25 to -24 at my book. I love and have already bet alot on USC.

Now, Tulane started at -17.5 at my book went to -18.5 and now has dropped back at -17.5. Square money moved it back down after early money came in pushing it up. I may have to tweak my system some and wait til night before or day of and then watch the lines because whoever said it above, "Squares or public money doesnt bet Sat's game on Monday." That is quite true and may fuyck my system up and give me false readings....

 

[jeff85eagles]

I have worked this system

I have worked this system

my friend the public can be just as much right in moving a line as wrong look at sandiego ny jets mon night over and under opened at 42 mon night it was 46.5 the game soared over your close on your system but you have to no which one to go against the public and the one to go with the public if you strictly go against the public when the line moves big you will get drilled been there done that, but like in the case of the toledo pick i think going against the public on that paticular pick and taking fla intl is correct but you will have to figur it out rememer every games is 50 50 deal if it was that easy the public would never win in which cas they would never gamble:mj07:

 

[Theboundbook]

my friend the public can be just as much right in moving a line as wrong look at sandiego ny jets mon night over and under opened at 42 mon night it was 46.5 the game soared over your close on your system but you have to no which one to go against the public and the one to go with the public if you strictly go against the public when the line moves big you will get drilled been there done that, but like in the case of the toledo pick i think going against the public on that paticular pick and taking fla intl is correct but you will have to figur it out rememer every games is 50 50 deal if it was that easy the public would never win in which cas they would never gamble:mj07:

You havent been around long enough to see shhheeeit on what you are saying... Come back with that crap in 8 more yrs of playing and a positive bankroll.

SD never made it to my system though they covered easily and public lost, again. The under didnt quite make it to the system qualification but I did take it and lo and behold I lost one. But, since you are someone who picks out the one loss I had out of 12 with the 'system' you go on an keep betting against me. I really dont appreciate the negativity at all. My system is still being tweaked and that NFL game I still went 1-1. System or no system.

I believe in what I am doing and I am STILL yet to get a job. 8 yrs strong.

 

[jeff85eagles]

youve got me wrong

youve got me wrong

I did not even know you bet the sandiego total you asked for input I told you mine from experience the mor power to you you havent worked in 8 years but im not working with a negative bankroll either I was just stating the public cab be as right in moving a line as they can be wrong and I can email you the data on that its not negative its factual oh well I still wish you the best on your system

 

[Theboundbook]

OK boys I have done some homework

OK boys I have done some homework

And I am betting pretty hard on some of these.

Now, the biggest line movement yet is Hou vs E. Carolina total. It started at 56.5 and is now at 61.5!!!!!! Taking a definate under on this one. 5 point difference and tomorrow it may go up more!

The next one is No. Ill vs Ea. Mich total going from 57 to 53. Taking the over there. And tied with that one is EVERYONE is pounding Ball State. From 17.5 to 21 and still going! Gonna wait on that one and go against.

Tenn and Auburn total has moved 3.5 points on the over to 41. Another under opp for me.

Bowling Green total has gone from 41 to 44. You guys know what I like.

Ill Penn State line has gone from 57.5 and dropped to 54.5. Another 3 point move. Nice over there.

Mia Fla has dropped from 45 to 42.5. It fits the system.


Two points so far:

LSU is close, dropping from 41 to 39. That fits my system but with so many games I can pick those that have moved MORE than 2, but will be watching that one till game time. Navy o/u also dropped 2 on the total from 54 to 52. Will watch that too. So. Carolina is getting action pushing them from 24.5 opener to 26.5. Another 1/2 pt and Im against em.

So Here are my picks on a couple of these games. I put a LARGE BET on a two teamer with the two biggest moves, Houston total and E. Mich. total.

I also put a 10 teamer together with all the ones listed above for fun.

And then a 7 team 7 pt. teaser on all of those above except the 2 pt moves and the Mia Fla total is excluded. They look like this:


58843037-1 9/26/2008 11:56 PM Teaser 200.00 1,200.00 Football - 119 Virginia (Football)/Duke (Football) over 36? for Game
Football - 127 No Illinois (Football)/Eastern Michigan (Football) over 46 for Game
Football - 133 Houston U (Football)/East Carolina (Football) under 68? for Game
Football - 147 Tennessee U (Football)/Auburn (Football) under 48 for Game
Football - 155 Bowling Green (Football)/Wyoming (Football) under 51 for Game
Football - 165 Kent (Football) +28 for Game
Football - 173 Illinois (Football)/Penn State (Football) over 47?for Game

And the biggy:

58843058-1 9/26/2008 11:57 PM Parlay 300.00 780.00 Football - 127 No Illinois (Football)/Eastern Michigan (Football) over 53 -110 for Game
Football - 133 Houston U (Football)/East Carolina (Football) under 61? -110 for Game



And then the FANTASY PARLAY:

ager Type: Parlay (10 team)
Accepted By: Internet
Wager Status: Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: 25.00 / 4,250.00 (USD) Accepted 9/26/2008 11:50 PM - EST


Item #1
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Navy (Football)/Wake Forest (Football) 9/27/2008 3:45:01 PM - (EST)
Over 52 -110

Item #2
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Marshall (Football)/West Virginia (Football) 9/27/2008 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
Under 53? -110

Item #3
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
North Carolina (Football)/Miami Florida (Football) 9/27/2008 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
Over 42? -110

Item #4
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Mississippi State (Football)/LSU (Football) 9/27/2008 7:30:01 PM - (EST)
Under 41 -110
* Game Notes:
CORRELATED GAME.DENY SAME GAME ACTION

Item #5
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
No Illinois (Football)/Eastern Michigan (Football) 9/27/2008 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
Over 53 -110

Item #6
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Houston U (Football)/East Carolina (Football) 9/27/2008 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
Under 61? -110

Item #7
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Tennessee U (Football)/Auburn (Football) 9/27/2008 3:30:01 PM - (EST)
Under 41 -110

Item #8
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Bowling Green (Football)/Wyoming (Football) 9/27/2008 4:00:01 PM - (EST)
Under 44 -110

Item #9
Wager Type: Spread
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Kent (Football) 9/27/2008 12:00:01 PM - (EST)
+21 -110

Item #10
Wager Type: Total
Outcome: Pending
Sport / Period: NCAA Football / Game
Line:
Illinois (Football)/Penn State (Football) 9/27/2008 8:10:01 PM - (EST)
Over 54? -110


Please add stuff I have missed. Good luck to everyone and lets see how this chit goes. I will be up early tomorrow to see if any really go crazy with last minute squares chasing lines up and ANY that move 4 or more I am blindly hammering this weekend. I will be eating well on Sunday or eating the paper I have written on with all this work Ive done tracking this chit. Good luck to everyone!

 

[Blackman]

While I agree in principle with what you are saying, I'd be careful with totals. Weather factors can be just as influential to the number than the gate on one side.

I know you touched on this but I think it's a real consideration and something worth noting on a game by game basis.

Best of luck with your system.