SEC Plays 9/27

RollTide72

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Last week was some great football action as LSU/Auburn lived up to the hype and Vanderbilt (SHOW YOUR GOLD!) won on the road in Oxford to crack the Top 25 for the first time in a quarter century.

4-2 last week to improve to 11-2-1 for the year in SEC play. (6-0-1 on sides and 5-2 on totals). My leans were also 4-2 for the week which makes me 4-6 for the year.

Not a great week for match ups in my opinion with the exception of the Alabama/Jawga clash in Athens. Five of the seven games have spreads of 20 points or more. I might look into a few teasers as well.

Let's get to the action...

Alabama at Jawga
Few people outside of Tuscaloosa thought this game would garner national attention before the season started, but after the Tide's 4-0 start and quick ascent up the rankings, this is a MAJOR game for both programs. Is Alabama really back? Are the Dawgs ready to step up and claim a seat in the national championship game? Could this be the first of two meetings this season?

All Jawga has done is win, win, win and the results have been to drop in the polls from #1 to #3. The Dawgs went out west last week and smacked down the defending Pac-10 co-champs 27-10. It doesn't get any easier for Coach Mark Richt as the Crimson Tide comes to town this week with UcheaT, Vanderbilt, LSwho and Florida on the horizon. A home loss would not be good for the Dawgs and their NC hopes.

It's year two of the "process" in T-town and Coach Nick Saban is still preaching patience to his team and the kool-aid drinkers that are the Bama Nation. One of his postgame comments following the Tide's 49-14 win at Arkansas was "...you really don't have to be sick to get better. There's a lot of things we can improve on from this game." As a fan I love hearing that and I would think so do the players. In fact, the normal 24-hour "celebration" rule seemed to be non-existent in the Tide locker room last Saturday. The players were already turning their attention to the Dawgs with several asking if they could just fly to Georgia right now and play the game. They definitely are ready to erase last year's 26-23 OT loss from their memory.

In my opinion, UGA doesn?t have the type of high-octane offense that can come out and put a lot of points on the board even if Bama has a bad defensive day. I certainly don't think the Dawg lines aren?t going to dominate like they did last week against ASU either. Bama is certainly dominant on the offensive and defensive front and should be able to apply pressure to QB Matthew Stafford.

Speaking of QBs, I do like Stafford... he's calm under pressure and is not easily rattled. He's thrown 5 TDs this season and no INTs. He can manage a game as well as any at the college level and his arm strength and size are nothing to sneeze at either. It certainly doesn't hurt that he has freshman A.J. Green to catch everything thrown his way. Green is averaging almost 19 yards per catch and had a TD last week against ASU.

Alabama QB John Parker Wilson is the "x" factor if you will. I truly believe that if the O-Line protects JPW and gives him enough time that Alabama will win this game. That shouldn't be an issue as UGA has only 5.5 combined sacks through four games. TE Nick Walker has been a staple of OC Jim McElwain's new offense and freshman WR Julio Jones is living up to all the hype. If the Dawgs decide to blitz, the Tide should be able to "dink and dunk" the ball for some nice yards after catch. Of course the running game is Bama's bread and butter...

RB Glen Coffee has really stepped up this year for the Tide. Of course it helps when your O-Line averages 307 pounds a man! Coffee averages almost 9 yards a carry and when he needs a breather, say hello to Mark Ingram, Roy Upchurch and Terry Grant. Those three players have combined for 533 yards on 91 carries which compliment Coffee's 404 yards on 47 carries. But something has to give... Because UGA has the 3rd ranked rushing defense in the nation, only giving up 45.8 yards per game.

Seems like I've forgotten someone... oh yeah, the human highlight reel that is Knowshon Moreno. This guy is a STUD! He leads the SEC with 455 rushing yards and is third in the nation with 9 TDs. Again something has to give because Bama ranks 8th nationally against the run only allowing 55 yards per game.

I expect the Tide defense to be very aggressive and physical and look for UGA to throw more on first and second downs to keep Bama honest.

Special teams always seem to have something to say about a game's outcome and I give the nod to Alabama and kick returner Javier Arenas who is averaging 19 yards per punt return and 26 yards per kickoff return. He might break one but should be able to get the Tide good field position.

While there are plenty of offensive weapons, this is the SEC and I think that it will be a slug fest and while the Dawgs will have the early momentum thanks to the blackout and the great Larry Munson's retirement, I think that Alabama is ready to prove that next year is this year. The attitude of this year's team is vastly improved from last year's team and the Tide is improving week by week. This will definitely be a barn burner and I'm guaranteed to suffer a couple of heart attacks and consume a fifth of Crown Royal during just the first half!

The Tide's linemen own a clear advantage on both sides of the football. They also have the defensive blueprint provided by South Carolina, which held the Bulldogs to just 252 yards and 14 points two weeks ago.

On a personal note, I have always liked and respected UGA and am a big fan of Coach Mark Richt. This really is gonna be a great game. Again I don't bet Bama games because I bet with my heart and after doing my research and write-up, it's obvious I think the Tide is going to pull this one out. They may lose, but should cover. It's all about the Crown and Maker's Mark... right Jason? :mj06:

Georgia is 1-5 ATS at home after consecutive away games. :SIB

My prediction is Alabama 21-20

My lean is Alabama +7
 
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RollTide72

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UcheaT at Awbarn

It's panic time in Tennessee! Phat Phil is staring a 1-3 start right in the face and unlike last year's magical turn around, I don't see that happening this season. If they lose, the Viles will have their worst start in 14 years. UcheaT is having major trouble putting points on the board and that loss to UCLA gets uglier with every game the Bruins play (UCLA has been outscored 90-10 since playing the Viles).

Awbie on the other hand is licking their wounds from yet another tough tussle with LSwho. It looked like Tubbs had the game locked up with an 11 point half time lead but a last minute TD erased any hope. Sure, Awbie is banged up and disappointed, but, one of the bright spots was the improvement of the offense and the lack of penalties and turnovers. QB Chris Todd was able to get 250 yards through the air against LSwho and he lived to talk about it. He currently ranks 8th in the SEC passer ratings with 2 TDs and INTs each and should improve on that this week.

The Viles meanwhile took their annual flogging from the Reptiles of Florida. The natives are restless in ObKnoxville and it's not going to get better any time soon. UcheaT's passing offense is one of the least efficient in the SEC and QB Jonathon Crompton will continue to struggle against a stout Awbarn defense. He has thrown for less than 200 yards per game and has more INTs (4) than TDs (2). Anyone think it's a coincidence that with David Cutcliffe gone the Viles offense is struggling? :shrug:

UcheaT has run for 6 TDs so far this season but Awbarn is one of only five teams left in the nation yet to allow a rushing TD. Arian Foster was a no show last weekend against Florida only gaining 37 yards on 14 carries. I look for Brad Lester and Ben Tate to bounce back and have good games this week for Awbie.

Also of note, the Viles lead the SEC in penalties and have only 3 sacks to their credit in their first three games. Awbie has held their opposition to 7-of-60 third down conversions. UcheaT on the other hand is allowing third down conversions 46% of the time. Not good, not good at all.

Everything I read says this is a classic letdown game for the Barners and UcheaT has their back against the wall and will play their best game of the year. While this game might be close for the first 20 minutes or so, Awbarn will step it up in the 2nd half and pull away for a comfortable win.

My prediction is Awbie 27-10.

My bet is Awbarn -6
 
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RollTide72

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Ole Miss at Florida

The Rebs always play the Reptiles tough and have won two of the last three meetings (2002, 2003). Of course, back then, they had a QB named Eli Manning, now it's Jevan Snead and the Reptiles were coached by a man named Zook. Ole Miss is coming off a tough loss at home to Vandy 23-17 (6 turnovers will almost always beat ya) and Florida celebrated their annual rite of fall with a 24 point win at UcheaT.

The offense doesn't get more balanced than it does in Gainesville. The Reptiles average 164 yards rushing and 170 yards passing per game. Surprisingly QB Tim Tebow has not rushed for a TD this season. He did run for two against the Rebs last year on his way to a career high 166 yards rushing in the Reptiles 30-24 win. The Rebels are 9th in the nation in both sacks and tackles for a loss and it's gonna take a lot of those to keep this game close.

Florida is tied for second in the nation in turnover margin with nine takeaways and NO turnovers, the only team left in the country that can claim that. Conversely, Ole Miss is ranked 109th in turnover margin with 12 giveaways and only 7 takeaways. That to me is the major stat needed to take the Reptiles. If you want to know more, how about that Florida is the only defense in the SEC that does not have a senior starter but is 5th in the country allowing only 213 yards per game and only 6.3 points per game which is good for 2nd in the nation.

Can Ole Miss move the ball? Sure they can. They had 385 yards against Vandy but four interceptions and two fumbles negated any positives. QB Jevan Snead looked like a stud in his first few games, but has 6 INTs and NO TDs in his past two games against SAMFORD and Vanderbilt. This plays right into Florida's hand. Their point production is not matching their performance on the field. They are averaging 37 points per game while gaining only 332 yards per game, and that doesn't equate. They have done that largely because of a 10-1 edge in turnovers. As long as they can force a few turnovers, I like the Reptiles to cover.

Ole Miss has played two quality opponents and two crappy ones. They beat Memphis and Samford (the latter) and lost at Wake Forest and to Vandy at home (the former). On the road, at Florida, Gator Bait, Florida Field, ORANGE-BLUE... you get the picture, and it's not a pretty one.

My prediction is the Reptiles 42-14

My bet is Florida -22
 
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RollTide72

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Mississippi State at LSwho

Is it really necessary to play this game? I mean it's gonna be U-G-L-Y you ain't got no alibi UGLY. The Bulldogs have lost seven straight to the Bayou Bengals and the last 5 have been downright dreadful with LSwho winning by an average of 38.4 points!

The only way this game is remotely close is if the Bayou Bengals decide to look forward to their game at Florida which is two weeks away. Talk about the ultimate sandwich game. LSwho just knows how to win and the Mad Hatter will not allow that to happen. "We have to be ready to play," he said. "The key is that we have to be ready to improve. This team is in a good position. "We were better last week. Now, we have to do it for four quarters."

While I don't expect anything fancy from LSwho, they shouldn't need anything to win this game by at least 30 points. My only question is when do you have enough points and when do the scrubs get in the game?

LSwho RB Charles Scott ran for 132 yards last week against a decent Awbarn defense. Meanwhile in Atlanta, the Bulldogs gave up 438 yards and 4 rushing TDs to Georgia Tech. Oh yeah, the Tigers rank 2nd in the SEC with 220 yards rushing per game. MSU has committed 12 turnovers so far this season and only scored a TD against Georgia Tech late in the game against the 2nd team. Did someone mention UGLY?

I love Sly Croom and hate that he is struggling this season. It looks like last year might have been with smoke and mirrors. Can he turn it around in Starkpatch? No doubt... but it won't happen this week. LSwho B-I-G.

LSU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Mississippi State.
LSU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.


My prediction is LSwho 41-7


My bet is Bayou Bengals -24
 
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RollTide72

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Arkansas at Texas

Talk about going from the frying pan into the fire. Arkansas gets blown out at home against #9 Bama last weekend and has to travel to Austin, Texas for a meeting with the #7 Longhorns. Oh yeah, #4 Florida will be waiting on you the following week with #15 Awbarn two weeks after. F**K me! :scared

The Arkansas O-Line should be declared a federal disaster area. They have allowed 10 sacks and very little for the running game. UT gets into the backfield like I do my whisky, early and often. They have 9 sacks and 22 tackles for a loss so far. Major advantage Texas.

QB Colt McCoy (what a cool name) will write his name on the majority of the Texas passing records before his career is complete. He not only has completed 78% of his passes for 833 yards, he leads the team with 194 yards rushing. He also has 13 total TDs (11 passing and 2 rushing).

There just isn't much positive that I can write up about Arkansas except they have a winning record (2-1) and lead the SEC in passing and should be able to get a couple of deep passes on the UT secondary.

Texas has scored 52 (Rice), 52 (FAU) and 42 (UTEP) points so far this season and Arkansas has given up 49 (Alabama), 27 (LA-Monroe) and 24 (Western Illinois). When does Mack Brown take the starters out once this has gotten out of control? Will there be a backdoor cover? It's a lot of points to give up and Arkansas might put a few TDs on the board.

My prediction is Texas 45-14

My bet is Texas -27.5
 
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RollTide72

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Western Kentucky at Kentucky

The Hilltoppers from Bowling Green will travel up the Bluegrass Parkway and take on big old U of K Saturday night. The Mildcats have had two weeks to recover from the MTSU game that was a lot closer than anyone in Big Blue nation would have liked. WKU got healthy on Murray State but has been blown out by Indiana and Alabama respectively.

The UK "D" will be without two of its key players MLB Micah Johnson and DT Ricky Lumpkin. Each has a high-ankle sprain suffered against MTSU, and while they might not be needed this week, Johnson, the team?s leading tackler, has to be healthy once SEC play starts.

That leads me to this question... will the Mildcats be looking ahead to the SEC opener at Alabama next week, that will be broadcast nationally on CBS? They were certainly looking ahead to their bye week as 19.5 point favorites against MTSU and had to make a shoestring tackle on the games final play to avoid an embarrassing upset.

MTSU hails from the Sun Belt Conference and that's where WKU will call home starting next season. QB K.J. Black is expected back for Hilltoppers and Black, a sophomore from Louisville, can hardly wait for Western's first game against Kentucky. "A lot of us growing up across the state have watched Kentucky for years," Black said. "This is an opportunity for us to make history. I hope we get off on the right foot." The Wildcats, Black recalled, showed interest during his senior year at Fern Creek High School. Black missed Western's last two games with a separated shoulder, but was returned to his starting role following WKU's 50-9 victory over Murray State last week.

WKU runs the spread offense which is similar to what MTSU ran against UK two weeks ago. The Mildcats struggled against it then and I think the problems continue.

I thought UK was on to something when they beat Louisville to start the season, but as we have all seen, that game doesn't mean as much now. WKU has played at Indiana and at Alabama. Going into Commonwealth Stadium will not scare this team. I like the Hilltoppers to hang around for a while and cover.

My prediction is Kentucky 31-17

My bet is Western Kentucky +21.5
 
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RollTide72

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UAB at South Carolina

Talk about a stinking pile of s**t game, this is it. My only question is how can South Carolina be laying 26 points to anyone? The Cocks barely got by Wofford a week ago, needing a late TD to finally put the game out of reach. The Head Ball Coach (HBC) is in year 4 and the natives are restless. He was called out earlier this week in an editorial by the school's paper and me thinks that he is none to happy.

UAB QB Joe Webb leads the team with 401 yards rushing and has thrown two touchdown passes in three of the first four games. The only thing I don't like is that UAB is 1-9 their last 10 games. Also, the Cocks have the nation?s top-rated pass defense, allowing just 96 yards a game and a single touchdown pass in four games.

USC East showed last week that regardless of the opponent, it?s vulnerable when it can?t move the chains or punch in touchdowns. Wofford had no business being in that game in the fourth quarter, but it was, which gives hope to the Blazers. To make matters worse, the Cocks offense has only found the endzone four times in the last three games. This is also the game that the HBC decided would be good for starting TB Mike Davis to sit out for his one game suspension for missing class earlier this year. So far Davis has 54 carries and 254 yards on the season.

Will USC East win? Of course. Will they cover the spread? Not at all. I don't even know if they will score 26 points.

UAB is 5-2 ATS in last 7 vs. the SEC.
USC East is 2-6-1 ATS in last 9 games.


My prediction is South Carolina 24-6


My bet is UAB +26
 
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RollTide72

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And now onto the totals....

Alabama at Jawga... O/U 45

Unless one of these teams goes on a scoring binge, the game should go under.

My lean is UNDER 45

UcheaT at Awbarn...O/U 41

This was going to be a pass for me until the line moved from 37.5 to 41.
Under is 5-1 in UcheaT's last 6 conference games and 8-3 in Awbarn's last 11 conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Awbarn's last 6 home games.
Under is 8-2 in TENN last 10 games overall.

My bet is UNDER 41

Ole Miss at Florida...O/U 49

I think that a lot of points could be scored in the first half and Ole Miss is able to put enough points on the board in the 2nd to make the over good. My main reasoning is that I think the Reptiles blow out the Rebs.

My bet is OVER 49

Mississippi State at LSwho...O/U 39

I don't think this game has any trouble going over. LSwho should be able to score at will and if the Bulldogs do score, that is just gravy.

My bet is OVER 39

Arkansas at Texas

I'm thinking style points here. Doesn't matter who it is, if you can put up 40-50 points on any SEC team you gotta feel good about that. I definitely feel that UT can score that many. But it's a lotta points to root for. I'm gonna pass once again.
Over is 4-1 in Arkansas' last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Texas' last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.

My lean is OVER 59

Western Kentucky at Kentucky...O/U 44

My prediction has this game going over and I think that WKU will score enough points to make this hit. If this number goes up a couple points by the weekend, it will become a lean.

My bet is OVER 44

UAB at South Carolina...O/U 48

No way, no how this game goes over. In my opinion they could play 8 quarters and the under would still be good.
Under is 7-0 when UAB plays the SEC.
Under is 4-0 in Cocks' last 4 non-conference games.
Under is 4-1 in ****'s last 5 home games.

My bet is UNDER 48
 
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RollTide72

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Bama's O-line leads the way

Bama's O-line leads the way

From Chris Fowler and ESPN.com:

Five huge, strong, nasty and smart guys, all working together with exceptional chemistry. They smash and mash opponents, breaking down bodies and spirits. They impose their power early and only grow stronger as the fight unfolds. They feed off any weakness of will they sense in the men across the line.

They are the offensive line of the Alabama Crimson Tide. They represent both their team's best hope and Georgia's biggest challenge Saturday night (ESPN, 7:45 ET) between Athens' famous hedges.

By name, they are (left to right) Andre Smith, Mike Johnson, Antoine Caldwell, Marlon Davis and Drew Davis. That's this week's scheduled lineup anyway. In the past 17 games, Bama has used nine different O-line combos, mostly due to small injuries. So, add versatility to the list of superlatives above.

Left tackle Smith is a Playboy All-American and a certain future NFL stud. He is reserved and hardly quick to brag about his group's prowess. All-SEC senior center Caldwell shares no such shyness. Antoine is a talker, on and off the field. In fact, I have rarely spent time visiting on the phone with a college football player who expresses himself better than Mr. Caldwell. No. 59 has quickly become one of my favorites to watch and chat with.

Ringside in the opener against Clemson, I found myself focusing on the beating being dished out to Clemson's defense with each snap. Andre, Antoine and their buddies shocked the Tigers with raw power from the first few snaps. As Caldwell related, his guys could see the expressions on the Tigers' faces. They seemed to say, "Dang, we sure didn't practice or prepare to be hit this hard this frequently."

Few teams do. That's why it's often a jolt to step in against a line as beefy and nasty as the Tide's.

Big Antoine says it's a beautiful feeling for an offensive lineman, watching the desire drain from a defender. He says the focus is to become more effective as each quarter passes. "We take a lot of pride in making the other guys break down."

It happened again last week at Arkansas. The poor Hogs, now used to practicing against a finesse spread offense, had no answer whatsoever for the punishment dished out up front. Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram, a nice veteran/rookie tandem, had holes (make that canyons) to run through all day.

In just a few games, the Tide have sent strong messages to all corners of the conference, via the game videos. Any Alabama opponent must reckon with these guys before thinking about the ball carriers.

Caldwell told me the line's development began just two weeks after the bowl win over Colorado. In a meeting room, staring at a tape projected on a screen, the linemen began to study their mistakes and vowed to improve. It carried over into the weight room throughout the winter.

"We don't want to be a good offensive line. We want to be a great one," Caldwell says. "Coach Saban is always talking about each team having an 'identity'. As an offensive line, we want to represent that identity."

It is an identity that can be dramatically expanded at Georgia Saturday night. The Dawgs are not small up front. They feature three seniors and one junior starter, all stout enough to stand in there against most lines and allow speedy 'backers like Rennie Curran and Dannell Ellerbe to fly around and make plays.

It should be a great battle at the line of scrimmage and you can bet I'll have my attention focused right there when Bama has the ball. That's where it'll be decided.
 

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Rolltide, your write ups are great. I appreciate what you do. Gotta follow them SEC winners. Except Bama of course LOL just kidding.
 

RollTide72

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Weather forecasts....

Athens, GA
High: 80?F
Low: 59?F
Cloudy

Awbarn, Alabama
High: 80?F
Low: 61?F
Sunny

Columbia, South Carolina
High: 77?F
Low: 60?F
Clear

Austin, Texas
High: 88?F
Low: 58?F
Sunny

Baton Rouge, Louisiana
High: 86?F
Low: 58?F
Clear

Gainesville, Florida
High: 87?F
Low: 61?F
Sunny

Lexington, Kentucky
High: 77?F
Low: 59?F
Partly Cloudy
 

dawgball

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Damn, Brent. I lean against you on every game except Texas and UAB. :scared

Probably spells a great week for you!

Maker's sure will tast good!! :)

I think Florida and LSU are in for trap games to cover those big numbers.

UT somehow wins this game outright! :mj06:

And outside of Georgia/Alabama, I think Kentucky has the most to "prove" (every win for them is proof of something, right?) in these specific games.

Good luck to you. I didn't play many of these games, so I can pull for you in most of them... except ONE!

I'm so pumped for tomorrow night. Win or lose, I want a game that lives up to the excessive hype that it's getting. :00hour
 

RollTide72

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I hate to hear that we are on opposite sides of most games Jason. I certainly expected one though.

Most of the guys that have played the Florida and LSU games on here are taking the points. That concerns me somewhat as I would agree that both games are possible traps (more Florida than LSU). I'm more concerned about Florida than LSU covering. I just think that Miss. St. is that bad and it's a night game at Death Valley. I think the Bulldogs are marching into certain trouble.

I certainly wouldn't put anything past Phat Phil. Last year's miracle turn around proved that... but I don't think that happens this year. If this game was in ObKnoxville, I might think differently, but I haven't seen anything from UcheaT that makes me think they can stay within a TD of Awbie.

In regards to UK, who knows what will happen. They've had two weeks to get prepared, but are they really going to take WKU seriously with Alabama (and a nationally televised game) on the horizon? I think this is a trap game for them.

Like you I'm fired up for tomorrow night. I hope that it lives up to the hype as well. Nothing is more disappointing than a big game that turns into a big dud. It will be tough for my guys to get a win, but in this year of the unexpected, I gotta believe they find some way to pull it off.

Hope you have a great weekend and don't get too drunk this weekend.

I'll let you know Sunday where you can send the
crown_royal.jpg
 

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