game #1
Lester@Lackey
bosox 56%(+110)+8
over8.5 58%(+100)+8
Slight edge given to 'Sox SP and slight edge given to Angels pen; virtually even on the pitching overall (minimal edge 'Sox). 'Sox with the edge at the plate, especially considering recent offensive performances, though the 'Sox much prefer hitting at home. Total is impossible to call as Lackey has been quite inconsistent for the past 6 weeks.
Lester was hit pretty hard by the Halos,at home, back on April 23rd; this was at the tail-end of a four-game stretch where he was pretty bad--probably his worst stretch of the season and, obviously, getting it out of the way early. He's 1-1 in 4 career starts vs with a ginormous 7.78 era and and a mammoth .393 BAA. On the road this year he was 5-5 with a 4.09 era (compare to 11-1, 2.49 at home). Only Figgins and Anderson didn't hit him in their '08 encounter. For all 4 meetings, Anderson, Aybar, Guerrero, Hunter, Izturis, Matthews and Willits all hit Lester well, leaving only Texeira with an 0-for-3 lifetime. Five of his last six starts have been rock-solid (including on road to Yanks). Mind you, 2 of his last 3 road starts (and 3 of last 5) have been sub-par.
Lackey was 2-0 vs Boston this season with a 2.81 era. He tossed a CG 2-hitter at Fenway on July 29th (when he took a no-hitter into the 9th). This came 11 days after beating the 'Sox 11-3, at home, on July 18th. The 'Sox did hit 3 homers off him in those 16 innings. For his career, Lackey is 3-6 with a 5.54 era vs in 13 games, all starts. 2-4 at Fenway with a 6.34 and 1-2 at home vs with, obviously, a lower era. Only Pedroia (3-for-6) and Youkilis (2-for-7) had hits off him this season. Career-wise, Drew, Ortiz, Perdoia and Youkilis have hit him well; Crisp, Ellsbury, Lowell and Varitek have struggled vs. Four of Lackey's last five starts have been quite bad so it is difficult expect domination from him in this outting.
I like the 'Sox edge at the plate as well as the Angels current need for dismissing the complacency that they've had over the latter course of the season. Lester has been the better SP in recent weeks as well. This game could go either way but I think I'll ride the 'Sox current playoff unbeaten streak for this one. For total calls, I like to see a 65 or higher--certainly at least a 60--so I'm going to wait to see if we get a McLelland (ov) type ump for this game or an Eddings (un).
I also like the Bosox for the series; Santana may cause problems but I think that the 'Sox will handle either of Saunders and/or Weaver.
series bosox +111 2/2.22
g#1 bosox +110 1/1.1
GL
Lester@Lackey
bosox 56%(+110)+8
over8.5 58%(+100)+8
Slight edge given to 'Sox SP and slight edge given to Angels pen; virtually even on the pitching overall (minimal edge 'Sox). 'Sox with the edge at the plate, especially considering recent offensive performances, though the 'Sox much prefer hitting at home. Total is impossible to call as Lackey has been quite inconsistent for the past 6 weeks.
Lester was hit pretty hard by the Halos,at home, back on April 23rd; this was at the tail-end of a four-game stretch where he was pretty bad--probably his worst stretch of the season and, obviously, getting it out of the way early. He's 1-1 in 4 career starts vs with a ginormous 7.78 era and and a mammoth .393 BAA. On the road this year he was 5-5 with a 4.09 era (compare to 11-1, 2.49 at home). Only Figgins and Anderson didn't hit him in their '08 encounter. For all 4 meetings, Anderson, Aybar, Guerrero, Hunter, Izturis, Matthews and Willits all hit Lester well, leaving only Texeira with an 0-for-3 lifetime. Five of his last six starts have been rock-solid (including on road to Yanks). Mind you, 2 of his last 3 road starts (and 3 of last 5) have been sub-par.
Lackey was 2-0 vs Boston this season with a 2.81 era. He tossed a CG 2-hitter at Fenway on July 29th (when he took a no-hitter into the 9th). This came 11 days after beating the 'Sox 11-3, at home, on July 18th. The 'Sox did hit 3 homers off him in those 16 innings. For his career, Lackey is 3-6 with a 5.54 era vs in 13 games, all starts. 2-4 at Fenway with a 6.34 and 1-2 at home vs with, obviously, a lower era. Only Pedroia (3-for-6) and Youkilis (2-for-7) had hits off him this season. Career-wise, Drew, Ortiz, Perdoia and Youkilis have hit him well; Crisp, Ellsbury, Lowell and Varitek have struggled vs. Four of Lackey's last five starts have been quite bad so it is difficult expect domination from him in this outting.
I like the 'Sox edge at the plate as well as the Angels current need for dismissing the complacency that they've had over the latter course of the season. Lester has been the better SP in recent weeks as well. This game could go either way but I think I'll ride the 'Sox current playoff unbeaten streak for this one. For total calls, I like to see a 65 or higher--certainly at least a 60--so I'm going to wait to see if we get a McLelland (ov) type ump for this game or an Eddings (un).
I also like the Bosox for the series; Santana may cause problems but I think that the 'Sox will handle either of Saunders and/or Weaver.
series bosox +111 2/2.22
g#1 bosox +110 1/1.1
GL
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