nfl plays week #5....

[AR182]

11-8..

thought that some might find this interesting....i read that so far....

"favorites are 33-22 in the nfl (?pick ?em? games and pushes excluded). all the profit (actually, more than all the profit) is in small favorites, which are 16-3 against the spread so far this season, a stout 84.2%. the only segment that finds underdogs profitable are double digit dogs, which are 6-0 against the spread."


good luck

 

[AR182]

i am not sure but this may be my only play...

3*az. cards...ml.....

i think the bills record of 4-0 is more a reflection of their schedule than how good they are...& i think arizona will rebound from last weeks game where they allowed 56 points....plus this is the 2nd road game in a row for the bills...

play on - home teams vs. the money line (arizona) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored.

over the last 10 seasons the moneyline record is....24-2.....92%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....11-0.....100%


play on - home favorites vs. the money line (arizona) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game.

over the last 10 seasons the moneyline record is......30-2.....93.8%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....15-1.....93.7%


good luck

 

[MrChristo]

On it AR... :toast:

Add 'Zona had 7 TO's last week...madness...

...just worries me that everyone is on them, but if this line jumps out to 2 and beyond it's a winner...

...Look out world if it doesn't... kurby

 

[BadAngel]

I like this alot myself AR. Good luck to us.

 

[trolln4walii]

:director: Go Cards!!!!! GL this week AR

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

good luck mr al, hope you and mrs are ok!

 

[turksure]

I got 72% public on Buff, never trust those posted public numbers.

gl to us

 

[AR182]

On it AR... :toast:

Add 'Zona had 7 TO's last week...madness...

...just worries me that everyone is on them, but if this line jumps out to 2 and beyond it's a winner...

...Look out world if it doesn't... kurby

not true mr c...

a site that i use has..... out of 55284 bets.....64%
are on the bills.....& 36% are on the cards...

thanks guys..

 

[Smitty]

I got 72% public on Buff, never trust those posted public numbers.

gl to us

i think it's legit. i'm in a pool where you pick every game against the spread. 31 out of 41 are on the bills.

 

[Birdcage]

Seems to me that overall there are more "veteran"/"good" posters on the Cards and "others" on the obvious Bills, SI has 64% on the spread of the Bills. I like the play, GL everyone and thanks for posting AR.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m a little conflicted this week...and i`m not a big cardinal fan....

but you make a solid case...i may have to touch it meself....

break a leg today,brother...:toast:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

 

[AR182]

an update on the % of prople playing the cards...

out of 62426 bets.....64% are on the bills......&
36% are on the cards....


good luck

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck AR -- my sources are showing 69% Bills right now as well.

Like your side in this one.

 

[AR182]

thanks bm...good luck also...

 

[Senor Capper]

i am not sure but this may be my only play...

3*az. cards...ml.....

good luck homer LOL

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

BOL this week AR !!


vicc

 

[Morris]

Like that Ariz call. GL!!

 

[blaster]

AR,
LET'S CASH THIS THING!

GOOD LUCK TO US ALL, BLASTER