Updated 2008 Record:
21W-14L +$21,900 = 60% winners
Hi everyone,
I'll get right to the point - if you are only playing 1 play on Sunday - play the New England Patriots. Seriously - don't overthink this one - keep it simple - in my opinion the Patriots is the best play offered on Sunday. There is value in this play. Let me explain.
I suggest locking into this line as soon as you can - and preferrably get in at -3 or less...I was able to get it at -2.5 by paying an extra 10% (-120 instead of -110)...I did choose to pay the extra, as if they win by 3, i want a win instead of a push - I would still play this at -3.5 or -4...in fact I'd lay up to 6 on this play - I don't see this line getting anywhere close to that...but I am just letting you know my thoughts in case it does go to -4 or -5 or something.
Ok - let's rewind back nearly a year ago - we were seeing weekly lines of Pats -15.5 on Oct. 7th of last year at home vs. the Browns, and on Oct. 21st we saw Pats -15.5 on the road against Miami...they covered both those spreads by the way - winning on the road at Miami by 21...now fast forward to tomorrow - about a year later - what has change - well duh - Tom Brady is out for the season - yes this is a hit to the team and a big loss - however just as late last season Pats got so overrvalued that they all of a sudden could not cover anymore - I feel as of this moment right now we are seeing alot of signs that the public perception of the Pats is quite low. Remember this is a TEAM game - and the Pats have always won as a TEAM...they still have a solid defense, and offensive playmakers in Moss, Welker, and some very solid running backs...
Ok so New England now is coming off of a bye - so an extra week for Belicheck (say what you want about him being a cheater - the guy can flat out outcoach others - and has a solid coaching staff that works very hard to win weekly)...So do you remember what happened last time you saw the Pats play? Well i do - and so does the general public - they got spanked at home vs. the lowly Miami Dolphins (besides GB my other favorite team) - by 25 points! All of a sudden the Pats are terrible, Matt Cassell sucks, Welker is overrated, Moss is going to quit on team - wow how fast things change!
So we have Pats at San Francisco tomorrow - I'm sorry but is anyone really buying into the 49ers hype? They beat the Lions (Seriously - who hasn't
) and they did beat Seattle by 3...but they lost by 14 to New Orleans, and to 10 by Arizona - and those clubs have defensive issues...so you have a well coached Pats team, extra week to prepare and make some adjustments to work to Cassell's strengths...and "the man" has made the Pats just a -3 point favorite? Coming off of a 25 point route is exactly when you want to make a play on a team - especially one as solid as New England...If this was 2007 & they still had brady - this line would be -13 minimum in my opinion...
Ok - so i think you get my point - well in my power rating numbers I have New England at least 10 points better than SF taking into consideration playing on the road...I'm seeing value in this play..as always - I put my money where my mouth is...I locked in at the -2.5 spread - i paid the extra 10% because I just thought this was best...
Of course I never guarantee anything - no play is ever a guarantee - any play can win or lose, just giving you my thoughts as to what I have as my highest rated play to play on Sunday...
I'll be at Lambeau Sunday (season ticket holder for the Pack) trying my best to root on Matt Flynn (i just know he's going to start - Rodgers I don't think plays from what I'm hearing locally) - I'm locked into this one play for Sunday - and I hope to cash it when all said and done...Pats bounce back in a big way against the 49ers...gl if you play it...
THE PLAY:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -2.5 (-120)
Risking $4,800 to win $4,000
21W-14L +$21,900 = 60% winners
Hi everyone,
I'll get right to the point - if you are only playing 1 play on Sunday - play the New England Patriots. Seriously - don't overthink this one - keep it simple - in my opinion the Patriots is the best play offered on Sunday. There is value in this play. Let me explain.
I suggest locking into this line as soon as you can - and preferrably get in at -3 or less...I was able to get it at -2.5 by paying an extra 10% (-120 instead of -110)...I did choose to pay the extra, as if they win by 3, i want a win instead of a push - I would still play this at -3.5 or -4...in fact I'd lay up to 6 on this play - I don't see this line getting anywhere close to that...but I am just letting you know my thoughts in case it does go to -4 or -5 or something.
Ok - let's rewind back nearly a year ago - we were seeing weekly lines of Pats -15.5 on Oct. 7th of last year at home vs. the Browns, and on Oct. 21st we saw Pats -15.5 on the road against Miami...they covered both those spreads by the way - winning on the road at Miami by 21...now fast forward to tomorrow - about a year later - what has change - well duh - Tom Brady is out for the season - yes this is a hit to the team and a big loss - however just as late last season Pats got so overrvalued that they all of a sudden could not cover anymore - I feel as of this moment right now we are seeing alot of signs that the public perception of the Pats is quite low. Remember this is a TEAM game - and the Pats have always won as a TEAM...they still have a solid defense, and offensive playmakers in Moss, Welker, and some very solid running backs...
Ok so New England now is coming off of a bye - so an extra week for Belicheck (say what you want about him being a cheater - the guy can flat out outcoach others - and has a solid coaching staff that works very hard to win weekly)...So do you remember what happened last time you saw the Pats play? Well i do - and so does the general public - they got spanked at home vs. the lowly Miami Dolphins (besides GB my other favorite team) - by 25 points! All of a sudden the Pats are terrible, Matt Cassell sucks, Welker is overrated, Moss is going to quit on team - wow how fast things change!
So we have Pats at San Francisco tomorrow - I'm sorry but is anyone really buying into the 49ers hype? They beat the Lions (Seriously - who hasn't
) and they did beat Seattle by 3...but they lost by 14 to New Orleans, and to 10 by Arizona - and those clubs have defensive issues...so you have a well coached Pats team, extra week to prepare and make some adjustments to work to Cassell's strengths...and "the man" has made the Pats just a -3 point favorite? Coming off of a 25 point route is exactly when you want to make a play on a team - especially one as solid as New England...If this was 2007 & they still had brady - this line would be -13 minimum in my opinion...Ok - so i think you get my point - well in my power rating numbers I have New England at least 10 points better than SF taking into consideration playing on the road...I'm seeing value in this play..as always - I put my money where my mouth is...I locked in at the -2.5 spread - i paid the extra 10% because I just thought this was best...
Of course I never guarantee anything - no play is ever a guarantee - any play can win or lose, just giving you my thoughts as to what I have as my highest rated play to play on Sunday...
I'll be at Lambeau Sunday (season ticket holder for the Pack) trying my best to root on Matt Flynn (i just know he's going to start - Rodgers I don't think plays from what I'm hearing locally) - I'm locked into this one play for Sunday - and I hope to cash it when all said and done...Pats bounce back in a big way against the 49ers...gl if you play it...
THE PLAY:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -2.5 (-120)
Risking $4,800 to win $4,000
