college plays for week #7....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
adding....
af-9(120)....
got this at 9.5 & bought .5 point..last time i checked, olympic had the line at 10, which is still a good number imo.
sdst. starting qb, freshman ryan lindley was hurt in last week's game & is very doubtful for saturday's game. his backup, wrestling was 6-17 for 61 yards in relief last week following lindley's injury. even with lindley at qb, sdst ranked 118th in total offense nationwide & dead last in time of possession......mainly because of their lack of running game.
af specializes in playing keep away because of their ability in running the ball & averages 325 rushing yards per game at 4.9 ypr...the sdst defense allows 245 yds. per game on the ground at 5.15 ypr....& other than tcu, the teams sdst faced couldn't come close in matching af on the ground....sdst allowed cal-poly to rush for 260 yards,san jose ran for 293 & tcu ran for over 380 yds.
in case anybody is thinking that af may be a little flat after playing navy...af hasn't shown that to be the case since they are 5-1 ats in the last 6 in the game after playing navy.
af is 9-0 ats when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons.
af is 9-1 ats against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
good luck
af-9(120)....
got this at 9.5 & bought .5 point..last time i checked, olympic had the line at 10, which is still a good number imo.
sdst. starting qb, freshman ryan lindley was hurt in last week's game & is very doubtful for saturday's game. his backup, wrestling was 6-17 for 61 yards in relief last week following lindley's injury. even with lindley at qb, sdst ranked 118th in total offense nationwide & dead last in time of possession......mainly because of their lack of running game.
af specializes in playing keep away because of their ability in running the ball & averages 325 rushing yards per game at 4.9 ypr...the sdst defense allows 245 yds. per game on the ground at 5.15 ypr....& other than tcu, the teams sdst faced couldn't come close in matching af on the ground....sdst allowed cal-poly to rush for 260 yards,san jose ran for 293 & tcu ran for over 380 yds.
in case anybody is thinking that af may be a little flat after playing navy...af hasn't shown that to be the case since they are 5-1 ats in the last 6 in the game after playing navy.
af is 9-0 ats when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 2 seasons.
af is 9-1 ats against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
good luck
AR,
After looking at the San Jose State and UTST game and the trends and stats of both teams the under seem like the only logical play. Both QB's in the game Reed and Borel are middle of the pack QB's that should not put up lights out numbers. Ut State is going to have to go to the air to stay in the game since San Jose is solid at stuffing the run (100 yards per game), and that really has not been their strong suit. San Jose likes to dink and dunk when they have the ball, as Reed is highly accurate (73% completion rate), but most passes are the 5 yard variety. Over the years, I have tried to shy away from playing overs in the WAC just due to the wide open style, and it looks like the value of the under has dropped by a full point. If I play this game it will be on the under, but more than likely a pass for me.
Whats your thoughts on Southern Miss this week catching nearly 2 tds against Boise? I dont believe that Boise has played a "Spread Offense" team this season, as I d not consider La Tech a spread offense (I consider thier offense pathetic).
After looking at the San Jose State and UTST game and the trends and stats of both teams the under seem like the only logical play. Both QB's in the game Reed and Borel are middle of the pack QB's that should not put up lights out numbers. Ut State is going to have to go to the air to stay in the game since San Jose is solid at stuffing the run (100 yards per game), and that really has not been their strong suit. San Jose likes to dink and dunk when they have the ball, as Reed is highly accurate (73% completion rate), but most passes are the 5 yard variety. Over the years, I have tried to shy away from playing overs in the WAC just due to the wide open style, and it looks like the value of the under has dropped by a full point. If I play this game it will be on the under, but more than likely a pass for me.
Whats your thoughts on Southern Miss this week catching nearly 2 tds against Boise? I dont believe that Boise has played a "Spread Offense" team this season, as I d not consider La Tech a spread offense (I consider thier offense pathetic).
thanks guys...
have hit a few middles this year...so i will play a few more....
wf-1 (120)
clemson+4 (130)
kansas-13(130)
colorado+15(130)
good luck
have hit a few middles this year...so i will play a few more....
wf-1 (120)
clemson+4 (130)
kansas-13(130)
colorado+15(130)
good luck
thanks hawk....
adding....
under 48(130) utah st / san jose....
i am playing this based on consultation with hawkeye & on the conservative nature of the way san jose plays football.....which is shown in the following trends...
san jose st is 11-1 under when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons......the average score was sjst 27.8, opponent 17.2
sjst is 9-1 under vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was sjst 28.3, opp. 17.9
sjst is 11-0 under vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons....the average score was sjst 21.7, opp. 18.3
sjst is 8-0 under versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was sjst 22.6, opp. 18.0
good luck
adding....
under 48(130) utah st / san jose....
i am playing this based on consultation with hawkeye & on the conservative nature of the way san jose plays football.....which is shown in the following trends...
san jose st is 11-1 under when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons......the average score was sjst 27.8, opponent 17.2
sjst is 9-1 under vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was sjst 28.3, opp. 17.9
sjst is 11-0 under vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons....the average score was sjst 21.7, opp. 18.3
sjst is 8-0 under versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was sjst 22.6, opp. 18.0
good luck
adding....
under 47 (120) utah / wyom....
1st let me give you the weather report....
depending on the temp., there is a 70% chance of either rain or snow for this game.
utah has a pretty balanced offense & are going up against a defense that is better than the won-lost record of wyom. indicates. the cowboys are 43rd in the nation in total defense & allow on average 28 ppg.
wyom. problem this year has been on offense where they are 118th in the nation in total offense averaging 9 points per game. they have an average rushing attack, but are awful throwing the ball, while utah is 13th in total defense.
playing at home i think wyom. will be pretty inspired & with the type of weather that is forecasted, i think this game will feature the run more than usual & imo the under is worth a shot.
good luck
under 47 (120) utah / wyom....
1st let me give you the weather report....
depending on the temp., there is a 70% chance of either rain or snow for this game.
utah has a pretty balanced offense & are going up against a defense that is better than the won-lost record of wyom. indicates. the cowboys are 43rd in the nation in total defense & allow on average 28 ppg.
wyom. problem this year has been on offense where they are 118th in the nation in total offense averaging 9 points per game. they have an average rushing attack, but are awful throwing the ball, while utah is 13th in total defense.
playing at home i think wyom. will be pretty inspired & with the type of weather that is forecasted, i think this game will feature the run more than usual & imo the under is worth a shot.
good luck
thanks tw...
i came upon the following trend that is against bowling green & since i use trends in my capping, i decided to eat the juice & get off bg...
since 1998, teams coming off an upset loss as a 20 point favorite & are favored by 1-19.5 or at pick the next game are.....5-13 ats....27.8%
play against bowling green...
while i am at it..here are other trends that i came across....
since 1998, teams coming off an upset loss as a 20 point favorite & are a dog of 1-9.5 points in the next game are....5-9 ats....35.7%
play against tulane...
since 1998, teams coming off an upset win as a 20 point dog & are favored by 1-19.5 points or at pick the next game are....9-11....45%
play against army & hawaii....
good luck
i came upon the following trend that is against bowling green & since i use trends in my capping, i decided to eat the juice & get off bg...
since 1998, teams coming off an upset loss as a 20 point favorite & are favored by 1-19.5 or at pick the next game are.....5-13 ats....27.8%
play against bowling green...
while i am at it..here are other trends that i came across....
since 1998, teams coming off an upset loss as a 20 point favorite & are a dog of 1-9.5 points in the next game are....5-9 ats....35.7%
play against tulane...
since 1998, teams coming off an upset win as a 20 point dog & are favored by 1-19.5 points or at pick the next game are....9-11....45%
play against army & hawaii....
good luck
adding....
louisville-6 (120)...
i wasn't going to play this game but i started looking at the stats of these 2 teams & i couldn't help but notice that louisville is a much better team than memphis in most aspects of the game. and since they are coming off a bye, i thought that playing louisville was worth a shot.
louisville?s offense has started to play better over the last 3 games....they averaged 6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team.....& there should be no reason why they cannot continued perfroming well tonight against a terrible memphis defense, since they expect scott long (leading returning receiver) back after missing the last 4 games. memphis defense has given up 6.4 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. in addition memphis gives up about 5ypr on defense, while louisville averages 5 ypr on offense.
memphis has a pretty good offense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season gaining 6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl. but believe it or not, the cards are good defensively allowing 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. so imo memphis will probably not be able to put together too many long drives.
i think louisville will control the line of scrimmage, especially on offense & win this game by double digits.
good luck
louisville-6 (120)...
i wasn't going to play this game but i started looking at the stats of these 2 teams & i couldn't help but notice that louisville is a much better team than memphis in most aspects of the game. and since they are coming off a bye, i thought that playing louisville was worth a shot.
louisville?s offense has started to play better over the last 3 games....they averaged 6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team.....& there should be no reason why they cannot continued perfroming well tonight against a terrible memphis defense, since they expect scott long (leading returning receiver) back after missing the last 4 games. memphis defense has given up 6.4 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. in addition memphis gives up about 5ypr on defense, while louisville averages 5 ypr on offense.
memphis has a pretty good offense that has been 0.2 yppl better than average this season gaining 6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl. but believe it or not, the cards are good defensively allowing 4.5 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average defense. so imo memphis will probably not be able to put together too many long drives.
i think louisville will control the line of scrimmage, especially on offense & win this game by double digits.
good luck
I'm not as happy with my Mg St play now. But I can't change. So Good Luck to both of us (if). I don't like disagreeing with you and Thunder on these plays.
thanks guys...
adding....
texas tech -20 (120).......
after nebraska lost last week to missouri 52-17, the neb. coach apologized. but it wasn't solely his fault that the neb.defense isn't quick or fast enough to compete with high octane spread offenses such as missouri and now texas tech. he inherited some of the defensive players & there is nothing he can do until neb. gets faster players on defense.
i watched last week's tt game against kansas st & i was very impressed with both the offense & defense. tt has the nation's #2 offense averaging 583.3 yards per game, and the #1 passing attack. meanwhile nebraska allowed an average of 52.6 points in their last 4 road games & have allowed 47 points in their last eight conference games.
sure neb. will score some points, but i think the tt defense is under-rated & don't think neb.will be able to keep up with tex.tech since tt is always on the attack.
tt is 12-2 ats in home games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
neb. is 2-9 ats after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
play against - a road team (neb.) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.......30-8......78.9%
also playing....
under 52 ohio / kent st......
basically tailing hawkeye & spang...
also playing a middle.....
so. car...p
kentucky+4 (125)
good luck
adding....
texas tech -20 (120).......
after nebraska lost last week to missouri 52-17, the neb. coach apologized. but it wasn't solely his fault that the neb.defense isn't quick or fast enough to compete with high octane spread offenses such as missouri and now texas tech. he inherited some of the defensive players & there is nothing he can do until neb. gets faster players on defense.
i watched last week's tt game against kansas st & i was very impressed with both the offense & defense. tt has the nation's #2 offense averaging 583.3 yards per game, and the #1 passing attack. meanwhile nebraska allowed an average of 52.6 points in their last 4 road games & have allowed 47 points in their last eight conference games.
sure neb. will score some points, but i think the tt defense is under-rated & don't think neb.will be able to keep up with tex.tech since tt is always on the attack.
tt is 12-2 ats in home games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.
neb. is 2-9 ats after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.
play against - a road team (neb.) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.......30-8......78.9%
also playing....
under 52 ohio / kent st......
basically tailing hawkeye & spang...
also playing a middle.....
so. car...p
kentucky+4 (125)
good luck
If-If-If TCU does not worry about BYU next week- and they still play thier 2nd string QB because #1 is healing-they should still kick the shit out of CSU--weather not good for the Texans-but so much more skill players andn quickness. Go TCU:
I was considering TT also but I'm thinking the Huskers might have thought about last years whooping and maybe they show some pride.
Athough catching 20 is still not enough for me to put my $ on.
GL this week.
Athough catching 20 is still not enough for me to put my $ on.
GL this week.
luck is on your side this week with that Louisville cover, so hopefully your luck continues today
