Sec Plays 10-11-08

[RollTide72]

Now we are talking. No out of conference games this week. While Alabama and Ole Miss enjoy their bye week, the other 10 teams square off against one another.

Really looking forward to the battle in Gainesville between the Bayou Bengals and the Reptiles. Hopefully I will still be sober by 8 PM so I can enjoy it!

3-4 last weekend and 22-12-2 for the year.

South Carolina (4-2) at Kentucky (4-1)
The Gamecocks come to Lexington riding high after winning at Ole Miss last weekend. The Mildcats are still dreaming of what could have been after their close loss at Alabama. In my opinion this is the 2nd best game of the day in the SEC. A UK win keeps alive their chances of winning the Eastern division. A USC-East loss will give the 'Cocks their third conference loss and make it difficult to make a bowl game.

UK doesn't catch a break on offense as they go up against a very talented and stingy 'Cocks "D". USC-East is only allowing 245 yards of total offense per game. WR Dicky Lyons and QB Mike Hartline have hooked up several times this year and make a good combination. RB Derrick Locke has not had any breakout games this season, but he has still been very solid in the backfield.

'Cocks QB Chris Smelley completed 22-of-32 passes for a career-high 327 yards and three TDs in USC-East's 31-24 win at Ole Miss last weekend. He ranks 2nd in the SEC with a 61% completion rate. The passing offense of the 'Cocks definitely gets the nod over the Mildcats.

UK's Jeremy Jarmon leads the team and is tied for sixth in the SEC in tackles for loss this season with 5.5. Jarmon has 15 career sacks. Trevard Lindley, who holds the school record for career pass breakups (29), leads the SEC and ranks 13th in the nation in passes defended.

USC-East's Emanuel Cook finished the Ole Miss game with a career-high 14 tackles, eclipsing his previous career mark of 11 set last season against both LSU and Vanderbilt. He collected his first career fumble recovery in the third quarter.

Both teams have excellent defenses and this should be a low scoring affair. USC-East is 7-3 in Lexington and have won 8 straight in this series. I just don't see the 'Cocks winning a second straight conference road game though. I believe that UK is pissed after letting Alabama off of the hook and they want to prove that they belong with the big boys of the SEC. I also think that they have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage and that my friends is the difference in this match-up. ON, ON, U of K!

My prediction is Kentucky 20-10

My bet is Mildcats +2.5

 

[RollTide72]

Vandy at Mississippi State
The season's biggest surprise goes on the road to Starkville, Mississippi this weekend for a matchup against one of the season's biggest disappointments. Undefeated and #13 Vanderbilt attempts to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1982. Meanwhile, MSU attempts to avoid a 1-5 start to the season. You gotta love college football!

At first glance, you look at Vandy and wonder, "How are you 5-0?" The offense is not very good, but has found a way to come out on top every game this season. They have the SEC?s worst offense, ranked 116th in passing. BUT, for the second straight week, Mackenzi Adams guided the 'Dores to an SEC victory after entering in a relief role at QB. Meanwhile, MSU's offense isn't going anywhere fast. For the Bulldogs to have a chance, they need to hang onto the football and control the line of scrimmage.

I posted the following earlier this week and don't see any reason to write anything else:

in all honesty a Vandy win by 3 TDs wouldn't surprise, nor would a SU win by the Bulldogs. I've watched four of their games this season (LA Tech, Auburn, GA Tech and LSU).

I'm a huge Sly Croom fan and for the life of me can not figure out what is happening in Starkville this season. They certainly showed some life against LSU in their last game out, but part of me believes that was a look ahead game for the Bayou Bengals.

In the season opener against LA Tech 5 turnovers and 10 penalties are what beat them in that game.

They beat D1-AA Southeastern Louisiana 34-10 but still had 2 turnovers.

The Auburn game set offensive football back 100 years in the SEC. Auburn's offense SUCKS and still gained 300+ yards won 3-2. MSU only turned the ball over once.

MSU went to Atlanta and laid a real egg against GA Tech, or so it would seem. Although they gave up 500 yards in offense (435 was rushing though), the Bulldogs had just over 400 total yards. 4 turnovers and 7 penalties took them out of that game.

The LSU game in Baton Rouge was the first game all season that the Bulldogs did not turn the ball over. The game was never in doubt for LSU but it was not the blowout it's been the past 6 years.

True, Vandy has been doing it with smoke and mirrors, but once you've done it for 5 games, I don't know. They've won games this year that in the past they would have given away. Maybe they have turned the corner.... I really don't know. Their offense isn't going to put any scoreboards on TILT anytime soon, but they just find a way to win. I like their scrapiness. Nothing fazes this team. It's a great story.

What's the one constant in all of these games? The Bulldogs inability to hang on to the pigskin. 12 turnovers in their first 5 games. Vandy has forced 15 turnovers and leads the nation in turnover margin. That's the "X" factor if you will. If the Bulldogs handle the football, this will be a close game. If not, Vandy will win by at least two touchdowns.

3 points seems like they are begging for us to take the 'Dores. The Bulldogs are coming off of a bye week. I don't think their defense is any better than Auburn's or South Carolina's. The backup QB for Vandy proved he can step up under pressure, so that doesn't concern me. Vandy has handled their new national attention very well so far. I think that Bobby Johnson has his team focused and believing. Starkville is not exactly a difficult place to play, unless every Bulldog fan is allowed to bring in a cowbell. I think that Vandy goes to Starkville and wins by 10-14 points. SHOW YOUR GOLD!!!

My prediction is Vandy 23-13

My bet is the 'Dores -2.5

 

[HUDSON]

Nice write ups.....I took MISS ST +3.5. I could see Vandy winning by a FG late or the dogs winning this SU! Hope you like Georgia...I really like them this week!

 

[RollTide72]

UcheaT at Jawga
At the beginning of the season, this was one of those big SEC games that everyone circled on the calendar. Now, who cares? Can't believe that CBS even picked this game up. The Viles already have one foot in the grave and I would imagine after a bye week to stew over the asskicking they received in Athens that the 'Dawgs are more than ready. Not only are the 'Dawgs rested and pissed, they remember last year's embarrassing 21 point loss in ObKnoxville. The Viles are fighting (maybe) to save Phat Phil's job. Jawga needs a win to keep pace with.... VANDERBILT in the SEC East.

Let's face it, UcheaT's offense SUCKS. The Viles have averaged 10.3 points over their last three games, with SEC losses to Florida and Awbarn before a lackluster 13-9 home win over Northern Illinois last week.. Nick Stephens will remain the starting QB after completing 10 of 17 passes for 152 yards and a score last weekend. About the only thing positive for the Viles' offense is their running game, but UGA will stop any attempts with their dominant D-Line. But, UGA can give up some pass plays, so I guess UcheaT has that going for them.

Knowshon Moreno. Will he play? If he does, that's a big headache for the Viles' defense. UGA has won nine of its last 10 games when coming off an open week and QB Matthew Stafford is 21-5 as the starter. I don't think that UcheaT will have an answer for the 'Dawgs offense and will be playing catch up all day long.

There will be another funeral this week "between the hedges", but this time it will be for the visitors. Phat Phil better get his Realtor on the line because his already hot seat in ObKnoxville is getting ready to become blistering hot. I see UGA jumping on the Viles early and not looking back. HUNKER DOWN YOU HAIRY DAWGS!

My prediction is UGA 30-14.

My bet is the 'Dawgs -12.5

 

[HUDSON]

UcheaT at Jawga
At the beginning of the season, this was one of those big SEC games that everyone circled on the calendar. Now, who cares? Can't believe that CBS even picked this game up. The Viles already have one foot in the grave and I would imagine after a bye week to stew over the asskicking they received in Athens that the 'Dawgs are more than ready. Not only are the 'Dawgs rested and pissed, they remember last year's embarrassing 21 point loss in ObKnoxville. The Viles are fighting (maybe) to save Phat Phil's job. Jawga needs a win to keep pace with.... VANDERBILT in the SEC East.

Let's face it, UcheaT's offense SUCKS. The Viles have averaged 10.3 points over their last three games, with SEC losses to Florida and Awbarn before a lackluster 13-9 home win over Northern Illinois last week.. Nick Stephens will remain the starting QB after completing 10 of 17 passes for 152 yards and a score last weekend. About the only thing positive for the Viles' offense is their running game, but UGA will stop any attempts with their dominant D-Line. But, UGA can give up some pass plays, so I guess UcheaT has that going for them.

Knowshon Moreno. Will he play? If he does, that's a big headache for the Viles' defense. UGA has won nine of its last 10 games when coming off an open week and QB Matthew Stafford is 21-5 as the starter. I don't think that UcheaT will have an answer for the 'Dawgs offense and will be playing catch up all day long.

There will be another funeral this week "between the hedges", but this time it will be for the visitors. Phat Phil better get his Realtor on the line because his already hot seat in ObKnoxville is getting ready to become blistering hot. I see UGA jumping on the Viles early and not looking back.

My prediction is UGA 30-14.

My bet is the 'Dawgs -12.5

There ya go!! Thanks!! GO DOGS!!!!!

 

[RollTide72]

Arkansas at Awbarn
It's been a very quiet week in the loveliest village on the plains.... NOT! "As Lee County Turns" could be the name of this soap opera trainwreck. One day after giving a ringing endorsement of embattled OC Tony Franklin, HC Tommy Tubberville fired him on the spot. Meanwhile, the man who tried to sneak in and take Tubbs job several years ago comes to town this weekend, but Bobby Petrino maintains that he and Tubbs are friendly. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. This game is so bad that it didn't even merit thet Raycom 11:30 AM game of the week.

The Hogs are on a three-game losing streak, and to put it nicely have struggled, losing to Alabama, Texas and Florida by a combined score of 149 to 31. They did show some signs of life staying with the Reptiles for about 40 minutes last week, but nobody cares about moral victories. This is a bad game for the Hogs. The O-line is the worst in America in pass protection and they can't seem to hang onto the pigskin.

Meanwhile, Awbarn is ranked 104th nationally in total offense. They have fired the OC, but are keeping his offense. Don't really see the reasoning behind that, but I'm sure that Tubbs knows what he is doing. The two options, passer Chris Todd and runner Kodi Burns, are getting equal practice reps, and each will be expected to see time. Todd is currently the No. 1 guy, but that could quickly change. Te Barn is continuing its tradition of producing high-caliber running backs, with two backs on the squad that have over 1,500 career rushing yards. Junior Ben Tate leads the team with 501 yards rushing and ranks 16th in Awbarn history with 1,796 career yards. Senior Brad Lester had 186 yards this season and has pushed his career total to 1,586, which ranks 21st.

On defense, War Eagle has some injury problems. DTe Sen'Derrick Marks (ankle) and CB Jerraud Powers (hamstring) are both listed as day-to-day.
Awbarn's defense has kept the team competitive, allowing 11.1 points a contest. Their defense is great at getting into the backfield, while the emerging secondary has the potential to come up with at least three INTs from Hog QB Casey Dick.

I think it's very simple this week... actually I'm thinking that's what Tubbs has told his team: KISS Keep It Simple Stupid. There is no need to do anything special against the Hogs. They are not a good team and after three straight beatdowns should not put up much of a fight. Arkansas always finds the endzone though at least once a game and I don't know if Awbarn can score more than 4 TDs. While War Eagle wins, they don't cover. WOO PIG SOOIE!

My prediction is Awbarn 20-7

My bet is Woo Pig Sooie +17

 

[RollTide72]

LSwho at Florida
Let's get ready to rummmmmbleeeeeeeeee! This should be an awesome matchup between the last two BCS National Champions. Will the Reptiles be ready for the Bayou Bengals and the Mad Hatter? A Florida loss will end any hopes of a shot at the national championship. Hopefully the LSwho fans haven't chewed their fingernails all the way down, because this is going to be a nailbiter in the Swamp.

LSwho has already gone into hostile territory and come out with a hard fought win at Awbarn. The Reptiles have lost at home to Ole Miss and have not faced anyone to date with the talent of the Bayou Bengals. Forget all of this bulletin board material crap from earlier this week. Both teams are ready to rip each other's heads off!

Bayou Bengal's RB Charles Scott continues to lead the SEC with 133.8 yards rushing per game. In four games, Scott has rushed for 535 yards and six TDs. QB Jarrett Lee is second to Tim Tebow in the league in pass efficiency with a 146.5 rating. Lee has connected on 45 of 77 passes for 643 yards, six touchdowns and just three interceptions. His top target has been that of Brandon LaFell, who leads the SEC in yards per game with 87 and he's third in the league with 5.5 catches per game. RB Charles Scott cracked the 100-yard mark for the fourth consecutive game two weeks ago against MSU.

In two games against LSwho, Reptile QB Tim Tebow is 14-of-28 passing for 194 yards and four touchdowns. He has run 25 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns. However, Tebow has yet to be the Tebow of '07 and Percy Harvin hasn?t been 100%. Florida fans hope that changes this weekend.

Defensively for Florida, Brandon Spikes leads the SEC in tackles per game this year and tied for 17th nationally with 10.25. He is also tied for sixth in the league in tackles for loss per game (1.13). Spikes has led the Reptiles in tackles in eight of the last nine games he has played in. In addition, he has recorded 10-or-more tackles in five of his last six outings.

LSwho is fifth in the SEC in total defense (260.8 ypg) and sixth in scoring defense (15.2 ppg). The Bayou Bengals are allowing 191.8 yards passing per game and just 69.0 yards rushing per game. Darry Beckwith is expected to return to action this week after missing games against Awbarn and MSU. Charles Alexander and Ricky Jean-Francois as well as linebacker Kelvin Sheppard are all expected back after missing practice time last week.

When I saw this line at Florida -6 I immediately knew I was all over LSwho. It's hard to imagine Florida losing consecutive games at the Swamp, but the Reptiles will fall to LSwho and the Bayou Bengals' bye week will play a big role in their success. The week off gave LSwho time to get key contributors healthy. Secondly, Lee has had two weeks to prepare for Florida's secondary. While I do give Florida the QB advantage, the LSwho lines will control the game just enough to allow the Bayou Bengals to pull off yet another heart-stopping win in the Les Miles era. The Hat plus points equals a winner for the Stud! HOLD THAT TIGER!

My prediction is LSwho 24-23

Me bet is Bayou Bengals +6

 

[RollTide72]

Thanks Hudson... hopefully the Dawgs show up this weekend!

Good luck! :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

South Carolina at Kentucky
Defensive battle in the Bluegrass state. Lovin' the under here. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kentucky.

My bet is UNDER 38.5

Vandy at Mississippi State
This could easily be a 10-7 type of game, but I think for some crazy reason quite a few more will be scored. This one is too close for me to call. All trends post to an UNDER play. Under is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 home games. Under is 10-1-1 in Commodores last 12 conference games.

My lean is UNDER 38

UcheaT at Jawga
I think this game easily goes over. UGA could put 5 TDs on the board themselves. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Georgia. Under is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 games following a bye week. Call this one my anti-trend play.

My bet is OVER 42

Arkansas at Awbarn
First one to 14 wins this one. Just don't see Awbarn scoring more than 17-20 points and Arkansas' offense is not very good. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

My bet is UNDER 40.5

LSwho at Florida
Another one that is close to my predicted score. Not gonna touch it. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Florida. Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.

My lean is OVER 45.5

 

[RollTide72]

Friday SEC News and Notes

Friday SEC News and Notes

ALABAMA



ARKANSAS
Tigers provide chance for Arkansas SEC win
http://media.www.thetraveleronline.com/media/storage/paper688/news/2008/10/10/Sports/Tigers.Provide.Chance.For.Arkansas.Sec.Win-3480723.shtml

Just Plain Offensive
http://arkansas.scout.com/a.z?s=10&p=2&c=799391

Hogs' struggling offense hoping to turn corner
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469729

AUBURN
Auburn quarterback position up for grabs again
http://www.dothaneagle.com/dea/sports/college/auburn/article/auburn_quarterback_position_up_for_grabs_again/40418


FLORIDA
UF hopes to avenge 2007 loss
http://www.alligator.org/articles/2008/10/10/sports/football/081010_football.txt


GEORGIA
Richt tired of Bulldogs leading nation in penalties
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=468610

UGA's White expected to make first start at tight end
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469213

KENTUCKY
Kentucky LB Micah Johnson will play Saturday
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=468989

Wildcats need to be careful with football
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469549

Hey, who's in charge here? It's ongoing
http://www.thestate.com/gogamecocks/story/550152.html

L S U
Lee's emergence a timely one for No. 4 LSU
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469189

Coaches not afraid to gamble
http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/101008/col_342280662.shtml

OLE MISS



MISSISSIPPI STATE



SOUTH CAROLINA
Old ball coach goes for 16-0 vs. Kentucky
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469874

Gamecocks get stability at quarterback slot
http://www.upstatetoday.com/news/2008/oct/10/gamecocks-get-stability-quarterback-slot/

No QB news this time around
http://www.thestate.com/gogamecocks/story/550108.html

TENNESSEE
Blueprint in orange for UT to beat Georgia
http://www.govolsxtra.com/news/2008/oct/09/blueprint-in-orange-for-ut/

Vols finish work for Georgia; Fulmer names captains
http://www.wbir.com/sports/story.aspx?storyid=66157&catid=5

Inconsistent play plaguing Vols' veteran O-line
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=469688

VANDERBILT
Vandy rising
http://www.clarionledger.com/article/20081010/SPORTS030102/810100341/1079/SPORTS

 

[Punch23]

good luck bro-

I'm firing in a 3 game tease:

LSU +15.5
UGA -2
ARK +27.5


feel pretty good about it.


Wes

 

[Nosigar]

Great stuff.. as usual :toast:

Really like the Arky pick.

 

[RollTide72]

good luck bro-

I'm firing in a 3 game tease:

LSU +15.5
UGA -2
ARK +27.5


feel pretty good about it.


Wes

Yeah, that looks good man. Best of luck to you!

 

[RollTide72]

Great stuff.. as usual :toast:

Really like the Arky pick.

Thanks Nosigar, appreciate the comments.

I feel very confident about this one as well!

 

[RollTide72]

Weather Forecast

Weather Forecast

Lexington, KY
Sunshine and 76*

Starkville, MS
Sunshine and 81*

Athens, GA
Sunshine and 71*

Auburn, AL
Sunshine and 77*

Gainesville, FL
40% Chance of Thunderstorms at Kickoff

 

[Needy]

Great write ups Rolltide

 

[RollTide72]

Great write ups Rolltide

:toast: :toast: :toast:

Thanks and good luck today.

Off to the golf course. :mj06:

 

[rubiconed]

Great write ups, and GL this week !!! :toast: