college plays for week #8....

[AR182]

went 10-7 last week to bring my record for the year to...61-42...

i wanted to post the following play now because i saw that some of the books are dropping the line....

memphis+10 (120)....

i may have a more extensive writeup on this game later in the week.
i had louisville last week & felt that i was lucky to get the cover. i was impressed with the way memphis played & liked their qb. e. carolina is not as good as everybody thought & feel that the last team with the ball will win...so 10 points imo is a gift.

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ecu) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in conference games.

since 1992 the ats record is......37-12.........75.5%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....4-0


good luck

 

[Irish]

Bang AR, nice job so far brother. Keep up the good work.

Good luck this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish...

adding...

miss.+14(120)...

i wanted to post this also because i have started to see 13 at a few books..

we all know how great bama has looked this year, & think they are worthy of being in the top 5 in the polls...i only saw miss. play one game this year & that was against wake & came away impressed wwith their balanced offense..they average 4.6 ypr & 8.3 ypa which both is very good...i also like that they give up about 3 ypr on defense...so i think they will be able to hold their own on line play & stay within 2 scores of bama...

play against - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (bama) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is....36-10......78.3%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....12-4....80%


good luck

 

[Hooks]

Very nice job Al, proud of you, Bro. :toast:

 

[Lucena]

keep up

keep up

the good vibes going

with these solid picks


oh yeah ...


:clap: :clap:

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this week Al

thanks for all the great stats every week!

 

[Freddog5]

AR,
Keep up the good work. Love your write ups and always check in with your thread.

Any thoughts or leans on FSU for Thursday?
Also Miami and Houston games?

Love Mem +pts! well done at 10:00hour

Thanks.
FD

 

[hawkeye]

Always enjoy your write ups-GL

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it...

adding....

ark.+10...

i got this play at 11(120), but i will list it at 10 because 9.5-10 is what most of the books have....

i think last week's game against auburn showed that ark. is starting to catch on to petrino's system....they outgained auburn 416-193 in total yards & outrushed them 188-56....& eventhough ark is a young team, they do have a veteran qb to keep things together.

on the other hand kentucky's record is a little misleading. of their 4 wins, 2 of them came against div. 1-aa teams. every time they have played div 1a teams, ku has struggled. they beat louisville 27-2 earlier this year, but only gained 210 total yards. they also didn't do much against middle tenn. st & beat them 20-14....& eventhough ku lost to bama 17-14, i think they got bama at the right time coming off their big win over georgia...& against so. carolina last week , kentucky only gained 214 total yards.

ark. pass defense is vulnerable but i don't think ku has the weapons to take advantage of this & dd is pretty inviting against a team who always manages to play tight games. also kentucky plays florida next week.

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (kentucky) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/game), after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.

the ats record since 1992 is......48-18.......72.7%


good luck

 

[AR182]

i usually don't have best bets & when i do it's usually on the day of the game....but there is a game that i really like saturday & will make a big bet on this team.....

n.ill.-7(120).....

this sets up as a good situational spot for an under-rated n.ill team...they are coming off of an unimpressive win over miami-ohio, while toledo is coming off the shocking upset of michigan as a 17 point dog....after the win, toledo's coach said, "this one is special....it was a great, great win". it was the first time in 24 games that a mac team beat michigan. but eventhough mich. is in a transisition year & are having all sorts of problems learning rodriguez's schemes, they still have an aura about them & tends to make the team that beat them feel good about themselves. but teams that have beaten mich. this year haven't done too well the next game...utah beat mich. but then failed to cover in a win against unlv...nd beat mich. & then lost big to mich. st....ill. beat mich. & then lost as a double digit favorite to minn. the next week.

n. ill. qb, harnish came back last week in the 2nd half after missing 3 weeks with an injury. he provides a solid balance to the offense with me'co brown at running back.on the other side of the ball, n.ill has been playing solid defense this season......they have allowed only 1 offensive td in their last 17 quarters played.

finally i think n. ill. will be out for revenge since toledo has won 8 of the 9 games that they have played...including last year when they absolutely destroyed an injury riddled n. ill. team....70-21...

play against - road underdogs (toledo) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 31 or more points/game, after a win by 6 or less points.

since 1992 the ats record is.....89-32.....73.5%

if anybody follows me on this play...please don't go overboard...


good luck

 

[AR182]

i guess toledo did a lot of celebrating....one of the guys moore caught 20 passes against mich...that has to hurt toledo's offense...

2 Toledo players arrested

Moore, Alexandre charged in fight

By MAUREEN FULTON
BLADE SPORTS WRITER

Two University of Toledo football players were arrested early Sunday morning following the team's 13-10 victory over the University of Michigan.

Rockets wide receiver Nick Moore of Westerville, Ohio, was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct intoxication, a minor misdemeanor, outside of Ryno's Bar & Grill on 2633 West Bancroft. UT defensive end Albertson Alexandre was charged with obstructing official business, a second-degree misdemeanor.

Moore, a senior and team captain, and Jason Link of Columbus were involved in a fistfight at 2:30 a.m. Sunday in the establishment's parking lot, according to police. Link was also charged with disorderly conduct intoxication. Moore and Link were intoxicated and showed signs of being so, the report said.

According to the police report, when police arrived, they deployed mace to disperse a crowd of 30-40 people.

Alexandre, a junior from Miami, repeatedly approached the officers, ignoring numerous commands to leave the area, according to the report. After approaching an officer and tapping his firearm while trying to get his attention, Alexandre was taken into custody, according to police.

UT coach Tom Amstutz declined to comment yesterday through a university spokesman. In a statement, UT athletic director Mike O'Brien said, "We are still gathering information about the incident. We will not make any further comment on this situation until we are satisfied that we have all the pertinent facts."

If Alexandre, 22, is convicted, he faces a maximum of 90 days in jail and up to a $750 fine. Moore, 22, and Link, 27, each face a maximum of a $100 fine if convicted. The three men are scheduled to appear this morning in Toledo Municipal Court.

Both players started for the Rockets in Saturday's win. Moore had a school-record 20 catches for 162 receiving yards. Alexandre had five tackles, including a two-yard tackle for loss.

 

[AR182]

adding...

tcu+1.....

it's pretty simple....

i think football games are won & lost with line play...& i think tcu has an advantage over byu when it comes to this. on offense, tcu averages close to 5 ypr, while byu allows about 4 ypr on defense. i also believe that tcu will be able to slow the high octane byu offense. tcu's defense is ranked #1 total defense in the nation, allowing about 208 ypg, rushing defense, allowing .09 ypr, & the fewest 1st downs in 10 pg & allow about 48% completion rate in pass defense.

also looking at the line.....we have the #9 ranked team in byu, winners of 16 straight games playing against a team with a banged up qb, who probably won't play....& according to a site that i use as reference, 84% of 10,500 bets are coming in on byu...yet the line has gone down from the opening of byu -2 to now pick-em at most places......

a small trend....

tcu is 9-1 as a home dog (6-0 vs .900 or better opposition)


good luck

 

[freelancc]

keep up the great work...

 

[captmorgan34]

thanks for the picks lets get this done:

:0corn :toast:

313 (NCAA FB) Memphis PS +9 (-110)
335 (NCAA FB) Mississippi PS +13 (-110)
369 (NCAA FB) Arkansas PS +9? (-110)
358 (NCAA FB) Northern Illinois PS -7? (-110)
304 (NCAA FB) Texas Christian PS PK (-110)
331 (NCAA FB) Nebraska PS -6? (-110)
Total for this Ticket: Risk:2 Win: 81

 

[Theboundbook]

adding...

tcu+1.....

it's pretty simple....

i think football games are won & lost with line play...& i think tcu has an advantage over byu when it comes to this. on offense, tcu averages close to 5 ypr, while byu allows about 4 ypr on defense. i also believe that tcu will be able to slow the high octane byu offense. tcu's defense is ranked #1 total defense in the nation, allowing about 208 ypg, rushing defense, allowing .09 ypr, & the fewest 1st downs in 10 pg & allow about 48% completion rate in pass defense.

also looking at the line.....we have the #9 ranked team in byu, winners of 16 straight games playing against a team with a banged up qb, who probably won't play....& according to a site that i use as reference, 84% of 10,500 bets are coming in on byu...yet the line has gone down from the opening of byu -2 to now pick-em at most places......

a small trend....

tcu is 9-1 as a home dog (6-0 vs .900 or better opposition)


good luck

This is EXACTLY why my P.O.Y. was gonna be BYU until I saw the line, the amount of money pouring in and then the books moving the line from -1.5 to a pk em.... And I Know most people are on BYU.... Gonna go with TCU if anything...

 

[blaster]

AR,
GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR CARD THIS WEEK.
HOPE WE MATCH UP ON A FEW. WHEN WE DO THEY USUALLY CASH.

GL, BLASTER

 

[AR182]

thanks blaster...


adding....

over 44(120) purdue / nw....

very rare over play for me...because i usually don't hit them...but just think that after playing penn st & ohio st, a frustrated joe tiller will open up his offense & take more shots downfield...& nw's offense is always good for a few turnovers...since i capped this game to be in the high 40's-low 50's..i'll take a shot with the over....


good luck

 

[tulah]

I got BYU as a big play. I hate when we bump heads .

GL this week AR.

 

[DeadPrez]

good luck on TCU AR...

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

GL this week bud :toast: