college plays for week #8....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks guys...appreciate the well wishes...
adding.....
nevada-20 (120)......
nev. is averaging about 309 yds. per game on the ground at 6.6 ypr.(2nd in the nation)......on the other hand utah st. is very weak in stopping the run...they allow about 5.6 ypr on defense....& rank #105 in the nation in total defense...allowing 430 yd. per game.
if you look at nevada's defensive stats, you will notice that they are very good at stopping the run, but have done poorly defending the pass. but nev. has faced some very potent passing teams such as tex. tech, missouri, & new mexico st...those 3 are ranked 1,3, & 5 in passing offense.....utah st.is nowhere near thos 3 teams in passing efficiency..they average just 112 yds. per game through the air with a 6/5 td/to ratio.
nev. is coming off a rare upset loss at home last week to n. mex. st...so i think that they will be focused against utah st.....
play on - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (nevada) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......28-6.......82.4%
good luck
adding.....
nevada-20 (120)......
nev. is averaging about 309 yds. per game on the ground at 6.6 ypr.(2nd in the nation)......on the other hand utah st. is very weak in stopping the run...they allow about 5.6 ypr on defense....& rank #105 in the nation in total defense...allowing 430 yd. per game.
if you look at nevada's defensive stats, you will notice that they are very good at stopping the run, but have done poorly defending the pass. but nev. has faced some very potent passing teams such as tex. tech, missouri, & new mexico st...those 3 are ranked 1,3, & 5 in passing offense.....utah st.is nowhere near thos 3 teams in passing efficiency..they average just 112 yds. per game through the air with a 6/5 td/to ratio.
nev. is coming off a rare upset loss at home last week to n. mex. st...so i think that they will be focused against utah st.....
play on - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (nevada) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games.
over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......28-6.......82.4%
good luck
Great info as always. I like some of those, particularly TCU. 60% winners on over 100 plays is strong. Keep it rolling :toast:
adding...
troy-7 (130)....
troy is playing only their 2nd home game this year..while this is fiu's 3rd road trip in 4 games....also last week was fiu's 1st time in 24 games that they out-gained an opponent.
here is a system that goes against fiu.....
college football teams playing in a combination of their 5th road game in game 7 of the season & allow 21.5 or more points per game on the season are 8-26 ats (23.5%) against an opponent off a win.....but if this traveler is taking on an opponent that allows 25 or fewer points per game (troy allows 23.4 ppg)...the ats record is....2-19 ats....9.5%...play against fla. int'l.
good luck
troy-7 (130)....
troy is playing only their 2nd home game this year..while this is fiu's 3rd road trip in 4 games....also last week was fiu's 1st time in 24 games that they out-gained an opponent.
here is a system that goes against fiu.....
college football teams playing in a combination of their 5th road game in game 7 of the season & allow 21.5 or more points per game on the season are 8-26 ats (23.5%) against an opponent off a win.....but if this traveler is taking on an opponent that allows 25 or fewer points per game (troy allows 23.4 ppg)...the ats record is....2-19 ats....9.5%...play against fla. int'l.
good luck
adding.....
n. mexico-14 (120)......
sdst is severely limited by injuries this year....16 players missed last weeks game & 7 others are out for the year, including 5 defensive linemen.
todays local paper states that the the sdst head coach announced on tues. that they are switching to a 3-4 defense after its defense has been wracked by injuries and burning through redshirt freshman. injuries to their linebackers have now left them only one deep at some lb positions, which is now forcing them to play safeties at the lb position. the latest hit to their d is the starting de, who suffered a concussion last week. if this starting lineman is not able to play, & the team uses the 3-4, the starting de's will be a redshirt freshman and a sophmore.....a sophomore back up lb would be the 4th linebacker. and because of all of the injuries, sdst has given up more than 450 total yards in 5 of its 6 games, including 473 in last weeks 35-10 home loss to af.....on the year they have given up an avg of 437 yards a game, which is 10th worst in the nation. on offense, sdst has also been hit with injuries...& last week against af, their 3rd string qb was 18-35 for 128 yards & 2 ints & the team was outgained 473-165 in total yards....& for the last 2 games with this qb, sdst has averaged 114 yds. with him being sacked a total of 9 times.it has been reported that the original starting qb, after suffering an ac sprain and a slight seperation of his throwing shoulder a week earlier, threw on tuesday's workout....& it will be a game time decision whether he plays or not, but i think his arm strength will be an issue as well as rust if he does play.
on the year, sdst ranks last in the country in rushing d, last in rushing offense (47.3 ypg) and time of possession (23:42)....all total sdst ranks 100th or worse in 11 categories including 3rd down conversions (117th); first downs (tied 114th); opponents' first downs (113th); total offense (112th); total defense (109th).
nm has beaten sdst 7 straight times (11-2 ats in last 13)....they feature a rushing attack, with 2 backs that averages about 195 yds. per game.....& if you take away games against the good defenses of byu & tcu, nm averages a little over 26 points per game......
normally i wouldn't play this game because there is no way of knowing how seriously nm would take sdst. but in last week's game against byu, nm felt that they were robbed of a td late in the game that would have brought them within 4 points of byu, but instead they were stopped on downs & lost the game 21-3. after the game, the nm coach stated that..."the call took the game away from our players". so i think because of this call & because they only scored 3 points & because they need a win towards becoming bowl eligible, nm will be properly focused for sdst. also nm is 6-1 ats the game after playing byu...
good luck
n. mexico-14 (120)......
sdst is severely limited by injuries this year....16 players missed last weeks game & 7 others are out for the year, including 5 defensive linemen.
todays local paper states that the the sdst head coach announced on tues. that they are switching to a 3-4 defense after its defense has been wracked by injuries and burning through redshirt freshman. injuries to their linebackers have now left them only one deep at some lb positions, which is now forcing them to play safeties at the lb position. the latest hit to their d is the starting de, who suffered a concussion last week. if this starting lineman is not able to play, & the team uses the 3-4, the starting de's will be a redshirt freshman and a sophmore.....a sophomore back up lb would be the 4th linebacker. and because of all of the injuries, sdst has given up more than 450 total yards in 5 of its 6 games, including 473 in last weeks 35-10 home loss to af.....on the year they have given up an avg of 437 yards a game, which is 10th worst in the nation. on offense, sdst has also been hit with injuries...& last week against af, their 3rd string qb was 18-35 for 128 yards & 2 ints & the team was outgained 473-165 in total yards....& for the last 2 games with this qb, sdst has averaged 114 yds. with him being sacked a total of 9 times.it has been reported that the original starting qb, after suffering an ac sprain and a slight seperation of his throwing shoulder a week earlier, threw on tuesday's workout....& it will be a game time decision whether he plays or not, but i think his arm strength will be an issue as well as rust if he does play.
on the year, sdst ranks last in the country in rushing d, last in rushing offense (47.3 ypg) and time of possession (23:42)....all total sdst ranks 100th or worse in 11 categories including 3rd down conversions (117th); first downs (tied 114th); opponents' first downs (113th); total offense (112th); total defense (109th).
nm has beaten sdst 7 straight times (11-2 ats in last 13)....they feature a rushing attack, with 2 backs that averages about 195 yds. per game.....& if you take away games against the good defenses of byu & tcu, nm averages a little over 26 points per game......
normally i wouldn't play this game because there is no way of knowing how seriously nm would take sdst. but in last week's game against byu, nm felt that they were robbed of a td late in the game that would have brought them within 4 points of byu, but instead they were stopped on downs & lost the game 21-3. after the game, the nm coach stated that..."the call took the game away from our players". so i think because of this call & because they only scored 3 points & because they need a win towards becoming bowl eligible, nm will be properly focused for sdst. also nm is 6-1 ats the game after playing byu...
good luck
adding...
gt..ml...
i snoozed on this line....but since i thought that gt would win su, i decided to play them anyway on the moneyline...
gt comes into this game with a 5-1 record.....but most recently gt is coming off of a 10-7 win at home over gardner-webb as a 50 point favorite. in that game, gt started their #3 qb..& decided to rest their top 2 qb's who had minor injuries.......the atlanta journal constitution reports that both quarterbacks #1 nesbitt & #2 shaw have been practicing and cleared to play....
gt is the 53rd ranked offense in the nation...& is ranked 11th in the nation in passing & 8th ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 255 ypg at about 5 ypr....
we all know about how clemson has underachieved this year..& that they not only fired bowden, they also let go their off. coordinator. but they will also will be starting a red shirt freshmen at qb named korn and will bench the long time starter, named harper....but i wouldn't be surprised if harper plays sometime on saturday.in addition to all of the above changes, clemson will also be dealing with injuries to the already weak offensive line...last week 2 off. linemen went down with injuries & this is with only 1 starter from last years team returning....in addition one of their top runners, spillner will not play due to injury.... so now clemson will have a make shift group on the line with a new signal caller to face off with a strong, tenacious gt defensive line.....i also read that clemson will be trying new blocking schemes to help out this new qb....clemson is presently ranked 73rd in total offense but that was before all of the changes....on defense, cu is ranked 42nd in total defense, but were dominated by bama for 239 yards rushing and 419 yards of total offense earlier this season..
i think this game will be won by the gt defense which ranks#6 in total defense in the nation allowing 255 ypg.....they are 4th in scoring defense...& 3rd in pass defense & allow 10 ppg....the defense also ranks 1st in the nation in tackles for loss and 7th in the nation in qb sacks.
play on - road favorites vs. the money line (gt) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters.
over the last 10 seasons the record is.....27-2......93.1%
over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....8-0
play on - a road team vs. the money line (gt) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points.
over the last 10 seasons the record is.....24-3......88.9%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....11-2
good luck
gt..ml...
i snoozed on this line....but since i thought that gt would win su, i decided to play them anyway on the moneyline...
gt comes into this game with a 5-1 record.....but most recently gt is coming off of a 10-7 win at home over gardner-webb as a 50 point favorite. in that game, gt started their #3 qb..& decided to rest their top 2 qb's who had minor injuries.......the atlanta journal constitution reports that both quarterbacks #1 nesbitt & #2 shaw have been practicing and cleared to play....
gt is the 53rd ranked offense in the nation...& is ranked 11th in the nation in passing & 8th ranked rushing offense in the nation, averaging 255 ypg at about 5 ypr....
we all know about how clemson has underachieved this year..& that they not only fired bowden, they also let go their off. coordinator. but they will also will be starting a red shirt freshmen at qb named korn and will bench the long time starter, named harper....but i wouldn't be surprised if harper plays sometime on saturday.in addition to all of the above changes, clemson will also be dealing with injuries to the already weak offensive line...last week 2 off. linemen went down with injuries & this is with only 1 starter from last years team returning....in addition one of their top runners, spillner will not play due to injury.... so now clemson will have a make shift group on the line with a new signal caller to face off with a strong, tenacious gt defensive line.....i also read that clemson will be trying new blocking schemes to help out this new qb....clemson is presently ranked 73rd in total offense but that was before all of the changes....on defense, cu is ranked 42nd in total defense, but were dominated by bama for 239 yards rushing and 419 yards of total offense earlier this season..
i think this game will be won by the gt defense which ranks#6 in total defense in the nation allowing 255 ypg.....they are 4th in scoring defense...& 3rd in pass defense & allow 10 ppg....the defense also ranks 1st in the nation in tackles for loss and 7th in the nation in qb sacks.
play on - road favorites vs. the money line (gt) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters.
over the last 10 seasons the record is.....27-2......93.1%
over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....8-0
play on - a road team vs. the money line (gt) - after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games against opponent after a loss by 6 or less points.
over the last 10 seasons the record is.....24-3......88.9%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....11-2
good luck
adding....
kansas +21.5 (130)....
got this last night at 20.5 & bought a point....
imo this line is crazy...& i may be a sucker for playing into it...but i can't help myself....lol.
okla. must be devastated after losing to their biggest rival & losing their #1 ranking...but maybe the okla. defense, which feasted on cupcakes, was exposed by texas...who threw for 277 yards & scored 45 points. imo kansas's passing attack is just as good as texas...their qb reesing has completed 70% of his passes for close to 2,000 yards.
here is a convoluted angle that i read....
play against any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater off its 1st loss, covered the spread in the game before the loss, & allows more than 16 points per game on the season.....
since 1980 the ats record is....26-4....87%
play against...okla. & so. fla...
good luck
kansas +21.5 (130)....
got this last night at 20.5 & bought a point....
imo this line is crazy...& i may be a sucker for playing into it...but i can't help myself....lol.
okla. must be devastated after losing to their biggest rival & losing their #1 ranking...but maybe the okla. defense, which feasted on cupcakes, was exposed by texas...who threw for 277 yards & scored 45 points. imo kansas's passing attack is just as good as texas...their qb reesing has completed 70% of his passes for close to 2,000 yards.
here is a convoluted angle that i read....
play against any college favorite who was 5-0 or greater off its 1st loss, covered the spread in the game before the loss, & allows more than 16 points per game on the season.....
since 1980 the ats record is....26-4....87%
play against...okla. & so. fla...
good luck
AR, thanks for the great write ups !!!
I agree on most of the plays, and let's have a great weekend !!! :toast:
I agree on most of the plays, and let's have a great weekend !!! :toast:
Great season and analysis as usual AR. Happy to see you on the Rebels and Razorbacks this week. Also like my alma matre NIU Huskies getting the job done :00hour GL on another successful week :thumb:
thanks guys....
adding....
navy+4(120)...
i got this yesterday at 3.5 but i saw that the line is now down to 3..still like them at this number.....
navy is ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing offense by averaging 311 ypg....while pitt. is giving up 5.1 ypc.
pitt is 0-4 ats as a favorite this year....& are 4-11 ats after beating a previously undefeated opponent (2-11-1 ats if favored) & 0-6 since 2000.
navy is 11-3 ats in their last 14 coming off a bye...
good luck
adding....
navy+4(120)...
i got this yesterday at 3.5 but i saw that the line is now down to 3..still like them at this number.....
navy is ranked 3rd in the nation in rushing offense by averaging 311 ypg....while pitt. is giving up 5.1 ypc.
pitt is 0-4 ats as a favorite this year....& are 4-11 ats after beating a previously undefeated opponent (2-11-1 ats if favored) & 0-6 since 2000.
navy is 11-3 ats in their last 14 coming off a bye...
good luck
LIKE THIS NAVY PLAY AR.
THOUGH THEY HAD A WEEK OFF IN BETWEEN, THIS WILL BE PITTS 3RD STRAIGHT ROADY.
GL, BLAST
THOUGH THEY HAD A WEEK OFF IN BETWEEN, THIS WILL BE PITTS 3RD STRAIGHT ROADY.
GL, BLAST
here is some info that some might find useful....
Teams with look ahead potential:
Florida State - Host ACC champ VT next week after travelling to NC State.
Miami - Host Wake Forest after travelling to Duke this weekend.
Oklahoma State - Off huge Mizzou win and Texas on the horizon, must face Baylor first.
Texas Tech - Kansas on deck but first must travel to Texas A&M.
Louisville - South Florida next week but first face OOC foe MTSU.
South Florida - Travel to Louisville next week but first must deal with bottom feeder Syracuse.
Penn State - Despite 8 straight losses to Michigan, Big 10 title could be on line at Ohio State next week.
USC - No matter who was next week (Arizona) the Trojans could be looking ahead of Wash. St.
Georgia - Travel to LSU next week following this week's home game with Vandy.
Florida Atlantic - Western Ky game does not count for Sun Belt standings this week.
Teams coming off a big win or disappointing loss:
Clemson - Loss at Wake dents chances of elusive ACC Title and prompted ousting of head coach Bowden.
UAB - Led 20-3 at halftime before giving up 42 unanswered points in loss.
Texas - Huge win over Oklahoma in Red River shootout moves the Longhorns to #1.
Oklahoma - Beaten in key game vs rival Texas dampening title hopes.
Toledo - Upset in the Big House helps put positive spin on disappointing season.
Michigan - Miserable season continues after home loss to Toledo.
Illinois - Must recover from disappointing blowout home loss to Minnesota.
Vanderbilt - Suffered first loss of the season last week at Miss St.
Nebraska - Took Texas Tech to the brink with 4th qtr comeback before falling in OT.
Buffalo - Blew 15 point 4th qtr lead before falling in OT to WMU.
Western Michigan - Win streak continues after 4th qtr comeback and OT victory at Buffalo.
New Mexico State - 19 point underdogs won shootout 48-45 at Nevada.
Stanford - TD plunge with 25 seconds left beat Arizona 24-23.
Arkansas - 25-22 win on the road at Auburn provides traction for the Petrino era.
Auburn - Upset at home by Arkansas continues difficult and awkward season for Tuberville.
Penn State - Questions beginning to be answered after 48-7 blowout win at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin - Difficult Big 10 season got worse with embarrassing 48-7 loss at home to Penn St.
Oklahoma State - Statement win for the Cowboys winning on the road at Mizzou.
Missouri - Season goals took a step back with home loss to Oklahoma State.
Teams coming off BYE week:
Boston College
Maryland
NC State
Florida State
Duke
Virginia Tech
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Marshall
Rice
Navy
UNLV
California
Washington
Alabama
Ole Miss
Teams with look ahead potential:
Florida State - Host ACC champ VT next week after travelling to NC State.
Miami - Host Wake Forest after travelling to Duke this weekend.
Oklahoma State - Off huge Mizzou win and Texas on the horizon, must face Baylor first.
Texas Tech - Kansas on deck but first must travel to Texas A&M.
Louisville - South Florida next week but first face OOC foe MTSU.
South Florida - Travel to Louisville next week but first must deal with bottom feeder Syracuse.
Penn State - Despite 8 straight losses to Michigan, Big 10 title could be on line at Ohio State next week.
USC - No matter who was next week (Arizona) the Trojans could be looking ahead of Wash. St.
Georgia - Travel to LSU next week following this week's home game with Vandy.
Florida Atlantic - Western Ky game does not count for Sun Belt standings this week.
Teams coming off a big win or disappointing loss:
Clemson - Loss at Wake dents chances of elusive ACC Title and prompted ousting of head coach Bowden.
UAB - Led 20-3 at halftime before giving up 42 unanswered points in loss.
Texas - Huge win over Oklahoma in Red River shootout moves the Longhorns to #1.
Oklahoma - Beaten in key game vs rival Texas dampening title hopes.
Toledo - Upset in the Big House helps put positive spin on disappointing season.
Michigan - Miserable season continues after home loss to Toledo.
Illinois - Must recover from disappointing blowout home loss to Minnesota.
Vanderbilt - Suffered first loss of the season last week at Miss St.
Nebraska - Took Texas Tech to the brink with 4th qtr comeback before falling in OT.
Buffalo - Blew 15 point 4th qtr lead before falling in OT to WMU.
Western Michigan - Win streak continues after 4th qtr comeback and OT victory at Buffalo.
New Mexico State - 19 point underdogs won shootout 48-45 at Nevada.
Stanford - TD plunge with 25 seconds left beat Arizona 24-23.
Arkansas - 25-22 win on the road at Auburn provides traction for the Petrino era.
Auburn - Upset at home by Arkansas continues difficult and awkward season for Tuberville.
Penn State - Questions beginning to be answered after 48-7 blowout win at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin - Difficult Big 10 season got worse with embarrassing 48-7 loss at home to Penn St.
Oklahoma State - Statement win for the Cowboys winning on the road at Mizzou.
Missouri - Season goals took a step back with home loss to Oklahoma State.
Teams coming off BYE week:
Boston College
Maryland
NC State
Florida State
Duke
Virginia Tech
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Marshall
Rice
Navy
UNLV
California
Washington
Alabama
Ole Miss
adding....
under 45 (120) miami / duke....
play under - any team against the total (duke) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.
since 1992 the ats record is.......36-11......76.6%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....24-5.....82.7%
also playing....
army+12....
last week buffalo absolutely fell apart in the 4th quarter, giving up 22 points before eventually losing in ot to w. mich....& after the emotional let down, buffalo may have trouble getting prepared for the difficult option attack that army is now running very effectively.....averaging close to 300 ypg rushing the past 3 weeks, with army running back, mooney gaining 416 yds. the past 2 weeks....
ot losers this year are 1-8 ats their next game (thanks morris)....& home favorites off an ot loss as a favorite are 27-49-2 ats (35.5%) since the inception of ot games....
good luck
under 45 (120) miami / duke....
play under - any team against the total (duke) - after gaining 150 or less total yards in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game.
since 1992 the ats record is.......36-11......76.6%
over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....24-5.....82.7%
also playing....
army+12....
last week buffalo absolutely fell apart in the 4th quarter, giving up 22 points before eventually losing in ot to w. mich....& after the emotional let down, buffalo may have trouble getting prepared for the difficult option attack that army is now running very effectively.....averaging close to 300 ypg rushing the past 3 weeks, with army running back, mooney gaining 416 yds. the past 2 weeks....
ot losers this year are 1-8 ats their next game (thanks morris)....& home favorites off an ot loss as a favorite are 27-49-2 ats (35.5%) since the inception of ot games....
good luck
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Good call on TCU. Frankly I should have known better, I talked all week that the line was fishy, and bet into it anyway. Someday I'll learn, hopefully.
Best of luck this weekend AR.
Best of luck this weekend AR.
- Sep 29, 2007
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thanks guys...
watching the tcu game last night, i kept thinking how flat their offense looked last week against col.st...& then i started thinking about my n. mexico play against an injury riddled san diego st team..& that maybe nm will be flat on sat.also like tcu was the week before their big game, because in 5 days they have an important game against air force...so i bought back my bet on nm...
n.mex.-14
sdst+15(120)
good luck
watching the tcu game last night, i kept thinking how flat their offense looked last week against col.st...& then i started thinking about my n. mexico play against an injury riddled san diego st team..& that maybe nm will be flat on sat.also like tcu was the week before their big game, because in 5 days they have an important game against air force...so i bought back my bet on nm...
n.mex.-14
sdst+15(120)
good luck
