MNF - Denver & Over

[Save It]

UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
33W-23L-1P +$22,400= 59% winners

Hi everyone,

Looking to snap out of my NFL funk...last 3 plays I've made have not only went down - they have been DESTROYED! Can't remember a stretch where I've been so wrong about 3 straight games - all started back last SNF w/ Pats +7 (blown out - lost by 20 - missed by nearly 2 tds ATS), then came back w/ Giants -7 (blown out - beaten by 21 outright - off by 28 pts vs. spread!), and of course my beloved Packers much to my surprise routed Indy yesterday - another 20 pt blowout! Needless to say that was the most enjoyable $5.5K I ever lost - what a game yesterday - the GB area was full of smiles today - atmostphere was unreal - we've not had alot to cheer about at Lambeau recently, so that was a nice and shocking win...

So on a 3 game losing streak in NFL - been very strong in college - and still up $1,200 for the week - but it will be up to tonight to say if this is a winning or losing week.

I've been preaching about the Pats alot and how I thought there had been some line value w/ them - well now there seems to be alot of uncertainty with this team. I think even more concerning that Cassel's play has simply been the play of the defense and giving up the big plays. And then you have Denver who is giving up a lot of plays - and Jacksonville seemed to move the ball on the ground or through the air on them last outing.

I believe every game has gone over on MNF - maybe this is one of those games that ends up 17-13, but i don't see it - of course what looks up is really down in the NFL - anyways I like over the total in this one.

Also here is what I am doing tonight. I really think as far as who is going to win is almost a toss up, but the ability for Cutler to move the ball and put up points I think is a higher probability for this Denver offense than the New England offense. The magic number in this one for me is 23 - if Denver puts up 23 points, it puts us in a situation where we can't lose the side and the over. Now I went ahead and bought the hook in this one - I like taking +3.5 in this game - very well could end up decided by 3 points. If Denver scores 23, then New England would have to score 27 to beat me - but the game then goes over...

I see this game being played into the high 50's to low 60's as far as the score. A 35-27 type of game I believe is highly probable. Anyways my decison after some crunching my numbers and such, I find that taking Denver + the points, and over the total are the correct sides tonight.

Here are my plays:

Denver +3.5 (-120 bought the hook)
Risking $3,600 to win $3,000

Denver over 48
Risking $3,300 to win $3,000

GL to all - hope to get back on the winning end of things in the NFL here tonight. I'll be surprised if Denver can't put up 3 tds and a FG against this New England defense.

--SAVE IT

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

IMO, the key to over and unders are turnovers. Depending on where and when they happen they're HUGE in deciding whether or not a game goes over. I honestly don't see New England throwing the ball all over on Denver.

Everyone brings up KC, but they fail to realize that all that damage was done on the ground, not in the AIR. Denver has a great seconday. However, their rush defense is horendous. I expect Bellicheat to try and pound the ball and keep it close.

I took Denver, I like Denver to win something like 26-17

gl with your plays!

 

[Save It]

Wow - have I gone cold in the NFL fast - can't imagine a worse possible start to a half than NE up 20-0...Denver scoring 23 looks hard pressed - but that's why they play 60 minutes - who knows - maybe they turn it around - i can't believe you have Cutler banged up, 2 Andre Hall fumbles...and then Baily goes down - that's why NFL is so tough to handicap sometimes. Not over yet & i'm not giving up - but looking like an 0-2 night possibly - gl

 

[vinnie]

Wow - have I gone cold in the NFL fast

From what I see your plays have been public sides lately that's never a good thing :shrug:

 

[Save It]

UPDATED RECORD:
Updated 2008 Record:
33W-24L-2P +$18,800= 58% winners

Well 0-1-1 for the night dropping $3,600 - nice to push the total after the start...

As far as my last few plays being public plays - the under was the public play tonight...and % were about 58-42 in favor of Denver - that's pretty close...the thing w/ Public bets - they don't always lose - part of what people have to do is identify when it is correct to go w/ the public - after all they do win sometimes as well right?

It is true - I do take that into account and I do look to go against the public most of the time, but NOBODY is ever always with or against the public 100% of the time - NOBODY.

Last week when I took the Pats they were not the public team. Sure I took Indy this week - yes the public was on them - but wasn't the public on the Giants this week? And Tennessee? And Chicago? And Pittsburgh? They all covered. Not every one of my plays will be anti-public. This is a very good indicator MOST times - but you have to factor in a wide range of things when handicapping. I was wrong about Denver tonight, and will be wrong again on teams in the future.

I keep doing what I do - and that's pick winners best I can. In the near ten years I've been doing this seriously as an investing hobby, I've been extremely successful - I'm not going to win every game - but I've beaten this game long term and alot of people can't say that. And I'll continue to beat it. I'm a busy person and put what time I can into it to pick winners. I never let a few losses affect what I do.

Congrats to those on NE - they played well tonight. GL w/ your plays this coming week...I love the college schedule for this week - going to be a great week I just know it...

--SAVE IT