college plays for week #12....

[AR182]

i had my 2nd losing week of the season last week by going 6-10...which brings my record to 98-73 for the season...

the first game that i am playing this week is...

col. st...p....

will have a writeup later in the week on this play...


good luck

 

[Irish]

AR,
deep knee bends my friend. I have been writing and looking in your threads for about three years. One thing I know is even if the ball bounces the other way on the play, you do your homework and that makes your threads a must view in my book. You will turn it around or it's you and me outside after school for a donnybrook.
Hang in their brother... if you want a laugh look at my NFL thread from sunday... the 0-fer on the day and look how... turnover city by the QB Big Ben, Gus in minny and the Buffalo wonder boy.

Good luck thid weekend
Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

thanks irish...appreciate it...

made this play yesterday...

miami fla.-4.....

should have a writeup later in the week...


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

af+4..

should have some kind of writeup later in the week...


good luck

 

[arrow]

hey ar

hey ar

i have been looking at air force too! home dog, rushing, lots of positives i feel right now.

 

[AR182]

adding.....

under 27.5 bsu / miami-o 1st half.....

if you look at the 1st half numbers for these 2 teams this year you will see that.....

bsu scores on an average of 13.7 points in the 1st half on the road this year...while allowing an average of 7.5 points per game in the 1st half road games.....adding the totals together the score is 21.2 points per game in bsu 1st half road games.....

miami-o scores an average of 6.7 points per game in the 1st half of home games....while allowing an average of 21.2 per game in the 1st half of home games.....adding the totals together the score is 27.9 points per game in the 1st half of miami home games.....

adding both totals 21.2 & 27.9 = 49.1...& then dividing by 2....i get the 1st half total tonight to be 24.55.....so there is about a 3 point differential between the half time total tonight & my number...

also there may be rain for tonight's game....

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recre...opnav_outdoors

i think it's worth a shot...


good luck

 

[Phenom]

adding.....

under 27.5 bsu / miami-o 1st half.....

if you look at the 1st half numbers for these 2 teams this year you will see that.....

bsu scores on an average of 13.7 points in the 1st half on the road this year...while allowing an average of 7.5 points per game in the 1st half road games.....adding the totals together the score is 21.2 points per game in bsu 1st half road games.....

miami-o scores an average of 6.7 points per game in the 1st half of home games....while allowing an average of 21.2 per game in the 1st half of home games.....adding the totals together the score is 27.9 points per game in the 1st half of miami home games.....

adding both totals 21.2 & 27.9 = 49.1...& then dividing by 2....i get the 1st half total tonight to be 24.55.....so there is about a 3 point differential between the half time total tonight & my number...

also there may be rain for tonight's game....

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recre...opnav_outdoors

i think it's worth a shot...


good luck

:box2: I like it, may throw a little coin on it, GL!

 

[AR182]

i posted miami-4 earlier this week....here is a quick writeup....

miami-4....

this is a good situation for miami where they are coming coming off a bye week while vt is coming off a dominant win last thursday over maryland where the hokies had a huge day on the ground....miami has won 4 straight games & their defensive numbers are among the best in the acc, allowing just 283.7 yards per game....the miami defense is holding teams to 2.9 ypc at home this year & i look for them to stack the line & force vt to throw the ball where the passing game results have not been positive for the hokies this season (an average of 140 ypg through the air with a % completion rate of 54% on the road this year)....i look for miami to win this game by passing....on the road this year vt allows teams to complete 60% with a poor 8.4 pya.....

vt crushed miami last season 44-14....but while vt has been a strong home team this season, they have not had great success on the road....their defense allows 26.5 ppg on the road compared to 20 ppg at home...

play against - road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (vt) - off a win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is..............39-13......75%

the situation's record this season is........................1-0

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is.....14-1......93%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....20-5......80%


good luck

 

[Irish]

AR
Don't tell anyone but I like Miami too. One thing Maryland did not do..... BLITZ GLENNON. One of the poorest QB's under pressure with a bum ankle and they did not send the house. I think with Miami's speed he sees the turf a lot more.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

good to hear irish...

earlier this week i posted air force +4....here are some comments...

af+4....

this line has gone up to 5/5.5..don't know why....

byu has played some mediocre offensive teams this year...& those teams & even the awful offensive teams were able to score against the byu defense....wash. scored 27 points, tcu 32,unlv 35, & col. st 42....for the year byu allows 28.7 ppg on the road...while af scores a little over 30 ppg at home for the year...on offense byu scores 28 ppg for the year on the road, while af allows a little over 19 ppg at home for the year...

for the year af is 7-2 ats...while byu is 2-7 ats for the year & 0-6 ats after the first month of this season.....

af is 12-2 ats against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons....

af is 6-0 ats after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.....

af is 8-2 su & 9-1 ats as conference home dogs of 2 or more points....

i'll take the rushing dog who averages about 250 yards at home on the ground this year ( byu allows about 158 rushing yds.on the road this year)....& who has the better defense....& btw byu has a big game next week against utah....


good luck....

 

[big papi]

I know Byu is bad on defense. But isn't their run defense decent and their pass d terrible?

 

[AR182]

I know Byu is bad on defense. But isn't their run defense decent and their pass d terrible?

big papi...

they allow an average of 158 yds. rushing yds. on the road this year....i wouldn't call that being decent...

 

[AR182]

i posted col. st..p earlier this week....here is a brief writeup...

col.st..p...

this is new mexico's final game for the season....& also it's their 12th consecutive game without a bye week......& after qualifying for bowl games for the past 2 years, nm this year is they play for nothing.....they have 4 wins and are playing for a 5 win season.....no bowl game this year & no shot at the conf title.....col.st. on the other hand has 4 wins & have 2 remaining games with a good chance to go bowling (they play wyoming next).....col.st. has played well this year at home...they beat houston at home & lost by 6 points to tcu & 3 points to byu....for the year they are 4-0 ats at home....

with this being a revenge spot for csu (nm won 38-17) as well as post season hopes on the line.....i'll take the motivated home team....


good luck...

 

[AR182]

adding....

af+4..

should have some kind of writeup later in the week...


good luck

i just checked a site that i use for line movement & saw that 65% of a liitle over 14,700 bets are on vt.....yet the line has not gone down...it has gone up from the opening number of 3 to 4.5...interesting...

 

[spang]

Like Col St as well. They have very quietly improved and its a very nice spot for them.

 

[hawkeye]

GL--AF is very good at home--will surprise you with the pass. BYU has had their number lately-maybe this is the year--I bet BYU when it was 4--too hi now you have to bet AF CSU--has good coach--they are getting better- can they stop the run? I think N Mex has cashed it in--Rocky might be on his way out.

 

[Cie]

GL sir:toast:

 

[Blackman]

Best of luck this week AR

 

[LDB]

GL THIS WEEK AR:toast:

 

[Master Capper]

good luck AR