SEC Plays 11/15

[RollTide72]

45-31-3 overall record for SEC games this season.

Not a very strong lineup of games this week in the SEC, at least in my opinion.

Down on the Plains, Mark Richt and his Jawga Bulldawgs will try to put Wingnut Tuberville and his Awburn Tiggers on life support. This is a big rivalry game though and both teams were not impressive with wins last week.

Heading into Oxford is an upset minded LA-Monroe Warhawk team that almost exactly one year ago marched into Tuscaloosa and stunned the Crimson Tide 21-14. The Reverend Houston Nutt will not allow his Rebs to overlook the Sun Belt opponent.

The Head Ball Coach takes on the Head Football Coach in Ego Bowl 4. Steve Superior returns to the Swamp with his Gamecocks to try and derail the National Title hopes of Ego Meyer and the Reptiles of Florida. I see this as closer than expected.

Moving on to God's country, the Cowbells of Mississippi State invade Bryant-Denny Stadium and try to win their third game in a row over my beloved Crimson Tide of Alabama. Hard to believe that last offensive TD scored by 'Bama was in 2004. Something tells me that changes on Saturday.

The Bayou Bengals will attempt to right their ship when the Troy Trojans enter Red Stick city. The Mad Hatter is still licking his wounds from the near upset of Alabama last weekend, shouldn't have too much trouble with Troy... but with Jarrett Lee behind center, anything is possible.

Our last stop is Commonwealth Stadium where the Vanderbilt Commodores will once again attempt to win their 6th game and become bowl eligible. The Mildcats put up quite a fight in a home loss last weekend to UGA. UK is looking to win out to move to 8-4 and somewhere other than Nashville, TN for the holidays.

The picks will follow shortly... best of luck to everyone! :toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Jawga at Awbarn

If there is a more disappointing 8-2 team in America, please let me know who they are. UGA was everyone's pre-season #1 and a lock for the BCS Championship game. That all changed in Athens when the Tide came calling and thumped the Dawgs 41-30. They were put out of their misery a month later when the Reptiles exacted some revenge in Jacksonville 49-10.

Awbarn has continued to disappoint and upset their rabid fan base. With losses to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss it's been a long season on the Plains and it doesn't look to get much better with UGA and 'Bama on the horizon.

The Dawgs lead the SEC in total offense and are ranked second in scoring, but the defense has given up 38, 49 and 38 points in its last three games. Fortunately for them, the Awbarn offense is pathetic. The Tiggers are 1-4 in their last 5 games (thank you UT-Martin) and are going nowhere fast. They have beaten just one FBS team since September 27th (UcheaT), and Tommy Tuberville is being rumored to be in the mix for the Clemson job.

UGA starting right tackle Justin Anderson will miss the game with plantar fasciitis (foot) and he could be out for the rest of the season. Kiante Tripp and Josh Davis will combine at the spot. Also out is LB Darius Dewberry with a hip injury.

Awbarn DL Sen?Derrick Marks, DL Tez Doolittle and LB Antonio Coleman missed the UT Martin game but are expected to return against the Dawgs. They were taking the week off to heal up for the stretch run. RB Tristan Davis also sat out to let a hamstring problem heal up, while the line gets back center Jason Bosley from an ankle injury.

The Tiggers are only allowing 175 yards passing per game, but UT-Martin might have given UGA a perfect blueprint on how to move the ball by sticking with the short to midrange passing game dinking and dunking to death. Skyhawk QB Cade Thompson didn?t put up big numbers, but he completed 27-of-46 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. Cade Thompson isn?t Matthew Stafford.

Kodi Burns is the key to the game in my opinion. He had a good rushing game last week and that does not bode well for an average UGA defense. If Burns can keep from turning the ball over, Awbarn might just be able to pull off the upset.

Who am I kidding though. Awbarn is a sexy pick for the upset this week, but I'm not buying the kool-aid. Their offense is just not good and they allowed 20 points to UT-Martin. I'll take Stafford and Moreno over Burns and Tate any day of the week. HUNKER DOWN YOU HAIRY DAWGS!

Auburn 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games.

My bet is UGA -8

My prediction is Bulldawgs 34-17

 

[RollTide72]

Louisiana Monroe at Ole Miss

Reverend Houston Nutt will have his Rebels on upset alert as the Warhawks of LA-Monroe march into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium this Saturday. Last year at this time LAM was pulling off a major upset in Tuscaloosa beating the Crimson Tide 21-14. I'm sure that's been a common theme this week in Oxford.

Defense has been the LAM's weakness giving up more than 200 yards per game against both the run and the pass. With all the problems, the team has lost three games by three points or less. The team is slightly better than the 3-7 record.

Ole Miss has had some of its best practices this season during the bye week, according to the Reverend Nutt. The Rebs? ground game has increased its productivity in recent weeks while the passing game has struggled, and now the goal is to have everything come together against the Warhawks. A win this week would make the Rebs bowl-eligible for the first time since the 2003 season with a three-game winning streak going into the date at LSU.

Ole Miss DE Greg Hardy has been expected to play in the past two games but did not see time in either one. Hardy did not practice much during the bye week but he should play this week. At least that?s the expectation.

The Ole Miss offense, while explosive at times, is turnover prone. The Warhawks haven?t been able to stop anyone consistently and need to force QB Jevan Snead and RB Dexter McCluster into mistakes. Both are prone to turnovers. McCluster has been particularly careless with the ball while lining up in the Wild Rebel formation.

With a win on Saturday, Ole Miss will become bowl eligible with games against LSwho and MSU left on the slate. I look for the Rebs to win, but will not cover the spread. I think that ULM will score just enough to warrant taking the points, but not enough to bet. This is LAM's third trip to an SEC West stadium this season and they will leave with an L just as they did at Arkansas and Awbarn.

My lean is ULM +22.5

My prediction is Ole Miss 28-10

 

[RollTide72]

USC-East at Florida

The Cocks took care of business last week, knocking off Arkansas 34-21 in Columbia, for the team?s sixth win in seven games. This is head coach Steve Superior?s second trip back to Gainesville as the Cocks head coach. In his first trip, his team had a chance to win the game with a late field goal, but Florida?s Jarvis Green came up with the block that helped pave the way to the national title. The game marks the SEC finale for USC-East. After a bye week, they finish the regular season against intrastate rival Clemson.

The Reptiles clinched the SEC East title last week with a resounding 42-14 win at Vanderbilt. Ranked 4th in the BCS standings, they?re right back in the thick of things for the national title. If Florida wins out, including a win over Alabama in the SEC title game, it?ll almost certainly be playing for the national title. Venturing out-of-conference for their final two regular season games against The Citadel and Florida State, the Reptiles still have work to do before the big showdown.

Superior announced that Chris Smelley and Stephen Garcia will take snaps at QB this week, just as they did against Arkansas as they rotated throughout. FS Chris Culliver will be forced to sit out the first half after throwing a punch at an Arkansas player late in the Cocks? victory. Akeem Auguste, who backs up Culliver at free safety, is nursing a sprained ankle but should play.

Florida: OL Carl Johnson sprained his MCL against Vanderbilt but will play this week. Head coach Ego Meyer expects RB Emmanuel Moody to get more carries this week as he recovers from a lingering ankle injury. DT Omar Hunter has missed the last few games with a sprained ankle and is doubtful. Backup QB Cameron Newton suffered a minor neck injury in a car crash last week and his status is undetermined.

The Cocks bring the nation?s third best defense into The Swamp, giving up 256 yards per game. It?s strength-on-strength in this matchup, as the Reptiles boast the second-best offense in the SEC, averaging 407 yards per game. USC-East doesn?t have the firepower to come back if it gets down early, so the D has to shine from the start, and the O has to take advantage of every opportunity.

Florida has to ? run and hide. The Reptiles have made a habit over the last few weeks of jumping on their opponents early and never looking back. A big part of their success has been their defense, which is first in the conference in scoring, allowing 11.9 points per game, but jumping on the Cocks right away with the offense could put the game away before the first quarter is over. Florida hung 21 on Vandy in the first quarter last week and 28 on Kentucky three weeks ago.

Keep your eyes on Florida WR-RB Percy Harvin. Harvin has scored a touchdown in all eight games that he has played in this season. The junior has scored rushing and receiving touchdowns in the same game three times. He has only caught 16 passes over the last five games since catching 13 balls in the loss to Ole Miss, he he?s still a major factor in the offense as a runner and big-play weapon.

Since their 31-30 loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, the Reptiles have won their last five games by an average of 37.2 points - none were decided by fewer than 28. Tebow has passed for 11 TDs and run for eight scores during Florida's winning streak, and leads an offense that ranks seventh in the nation in scoring (42.8 points per game).

While I believe that UF is running on all cylinders, they have not faced as stout a defense as they will see in USC-East. I have no delusions that the Cocks will win, but I think this game is closer than many expect. Everyone seems to be on UF and the number has not really moved since it opened. I like USC-East to cover but it will be close... too close for me to bet... this one's a lean as well.

My lean is USC-East +22

My prediction is Reptiles 28-13

 

[RollTide72]

Mississippi State at Alabama

Join me if you will for a trip back into time, specifically 1980. Jimmy Carter had just lost the White House to Ronald Reagan and Alabama under Paul "Bear" Bryant was ranked #1 and looking to win their third straight national championship. The Tide was beating everyone with the Wishbone, but MSU coach Emory Bellard had invented that offense and knew exactly how to stop it. The rest is history. MSU beat Alabama 6-3 and the story goes that when the game was over, Bryant walked into the Bulldogs' locker room took off his Houndstooth hat, and with help from a state trooper, stepped up on a folding chair. To the players who had ended his hope of winning a third consecutive national title, he spoke. "You whipped us," he simply said, and that was the truth.

Why bring up ancient history you ask? Before last weekend, Alabama hadn't been No. 1 in the regular season since that day. 28 years later, top-ranked Alabama faces Mississippi State. Then, Alabama was a 20 point favorite with 28 consecutive wins. This time, it's a 22 point spread and 11 consecutive wins. Will history repeat itself?

The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare for their shot at knocking Alabama out of the national championship race, or at least shake up the BCS standings. The last time out, Mississippi State dropped 14-13 a heartbreaker to Kentucky, and now it?s looking to extend its winning streak over the Crimson Tide to three straight games. Winning this game is a must, as well as the final two games against Arkansas and Ole Miss, to get to a bowl game.

Alabama outdueled LSwho 27-21 in OT to clinch the SEC West title and keep its #1 ranking in the BCS standings. Even with the division wrapped up, the Tide isn?t turning its attention on the national championship; head coach Nick Saban isn?t letting anyone talk about anything more than the game ahead. Following this week?s matchup, the Tide has a bye week before hosting Awbarn in the Iron Bowl. The defense has been dominant and it came through when needed in overtime last week to beat LSwho. That was considered the big hurdle; now the final two games are at home.

Glen Coffee moved past the 1,000-yard total for rushing yards for the season against LSwho with 126 yards rushing on 26 carries, giving him 1,010 yards on 162 carries. Andre Smith is one of 12 semifinalists for the 2008 Rotary Lombardi Award. John Parker Wilson has completed 59.1 percent of his passes for 1,627 yards and eight touchdowns. Wilson is UA's all-time leader in completions, yards and touchdowns. Julio Jones leads the team in receptions (40), receiving yards (634 and 63.4 per game) and touchdowns (4).

Junior wide receiver Brandon McRae has hauled in a team-leading 43 passes on the season for 434 yards and three touchdowns. He ranks second in the SEC with a 4.8-catchper-game average. State is 9-3 when Anthony Dixon gets more than 20 carries and its record is 6-2 when he eclipses the 100-yard rushing mark. Dixon's three touchdowns against MTSU moved his career total to 29 rushing touchdowns and 31 overall scores, both new Mississippi State records.

Rashad Johnson tied an Alabama record with three interceptions and also had four tackles, including a half-TFL, to help lead Alabama to a 27-21 win at LSU. Johnson leads Alabama with 5 interceptions (2 returned for TDs) and is second on the team with 62 total tackles. Dont'a Hightower is third on the team in tackles with 53 stops - 21 solo - in 10 games (5.3 tackles per game). Hightower has also forced one fumble and recovered two more to rank tied for seventh in the SEC at .20 per game.

Dominic Douglas leads the Bulldogs with 73 total tackles, and ranks sixth in the SEC with an 8.11 tackle-per-game average. Against Kentucky, Douglas posted a career-best 15 tackles and picked off his first career interception. Derek Pegues holds the MSU school record with three interception returns for touchdowns, which is tied for second in the SEC. Also, his 11 total interceptions tie him for third in school history in that category and it is the highest active total in the conference. The Bulldogs are the second-best team in the nation in pass defense, allowing just 153 yards per game through the air. If there?s a weakness in Alabama?s game, it?s passing the ball. The Tide ranks 100th in the nation in passing offense, averaging 169 passing yards per game.

After listening to Saban's radio show last night, I'm ready to suit up and play for the Tide. "If our stadium on Saturday, I don't give a shit who we're playing, better be what it oughta be (slamming his fist) because of what these guys have done!!" he continued. "I'm just telling you! It oughta be that. You gotta do it for them. Don't wait for the next game, how bout right now? Our crowd should have an effect on this game for our players and our team for what they've done. Now, you want to know how I feel? That's how I feel about it!! How do you feel about it?!!" Consider me impressed... Tide is a rout, but I never bet them... rarely.

My lean is Alabama -22

My prediction is Crimson Tide 31-7

 

[ripken8]

thanks for the work tide. good luck this weekend...

 

[StuckinNJ]

First, let me qualify everything that follows with the statement that I do truly hate Auburn - their team and their fans (irrespective of the fact that I have 2 degrees from there, met my wife there, am a member of the alumni assoc and contribute to COSAM). With that done...

If there is one thing you can count on Tubby Tommerville to do (besides run between the tackles on 4th and 5, down 9 points on their own 25 yardline with 40 sec to go in the game with no timeouts), it is to win the Big Game when they appear to be completely outclassed. Especially when the game is in the Twin Cities. Any Florida fan can hold court on this for HOURS. I strongly suspect that Auburn WINS this game outright. How? I don't know - dark arts presumably. Is there any other way to explain 6 in a row?

In the great pantheon of hated teams, only Notre Dame, Auburn and Tennessee rate higher than UGAy. This week, however, I will be yelling for the dawgs, but there isnt a chance in this world that I would put any money on them, not even on the ML.

Auburn wins, Tubberville gets ANOTHER contract extension (just like they give him everytime he wins a Big Game).

 

[RollTide72]

Troy at LSwho

This game was originally scheduled for Sept. 6 but due to hurricane conditions in the Gulf, it was postponed and scheduled for this weekend.

With no shot at a conference or national championship, the Bayou Bengals can turn their attention to finishing the season strong, get to 9 wins and a possible New Year's Day bowl game. Win #7 should be easy as the Trojans of Troy come calling to Death Valley. LSwho?s season eases up in a big way down the stretch with Ole Miss and Arkansas to close out after this week?s date with the Trojans. They?ve won their other three non-conference games by a total score of 117 to 26.

Don't get me wrong... a win by Troy would be HUGE, but they are focused on winning the Sun Belt Championship and they have a showdown next week with UL-Lafayette... so whatever happens against LSwho really doesn't matter much. The idea this week is to play hard and get out of Red Stick City healthy.

Considering Jarrett Lee?s problems against Alabama last week, the health of Andrew Hatch is getting more scrutiny. Hatch is trying to get back from a leg problem, and while he was supposed to see a little bit of time over the last few weeks but has been out. He?s not expected to play this week. Starting free safety Curtis Taylor missed the Alabama game and will miss at least one more week.

Troy has to get into the backfield. The Trojans lead the nation in tackles for loss and have been ultra-aggressive at getting to the quarterback. Lee hasn?t shown much ability when under pressure on a regular basis, and while the LSwho line has generally been good in pass protection, it?ll be tested.

LSwho has to get Charles Scott rumbling. Now is the time to open things up for Lee to see if he can play. But LSwho obviously wants to win the game first. The running game has to do even more to take the pressure off Lee as Scott needs to be well over the 100-yard mark to give the Bayou Bengals control of the game from the start. Troy?s defense is fast and athletic, but it can be powered on.

Keep an eye on QB Jarrett Lee. It?s all about the redshirt freshman as he has thrown eight interceptions in the last three games including four against Alabama. His 13-of-34, 181-yard, one touchdown performance last week was coming on the heels of an 8-of-20 day against Tulane. LSwho has to quickly figure out if Lee is just young and needs work, or if the position needs an upgrade for the next few years.

Troy is 1-14 against ranked opponents since joining Division I-A in 2001. The lone victory came at home over then-No. 19 Missouri on Sept. 9, 2004. The Trojans have dropped seven straight such games since then, including a 28-10 defeat at then-No. 13 Ohio State on Sept. 20, and a 24-20 loss at then-No. 18 LSwho on Oct. 23, 2004 - the only previous meeting between the schools.

In my opinion Troy is the best non-conference team to face LSwho this season and I don't think 16.5 points is enough. The Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. SEC and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. LSwho did not cover the spread against Tulane or North Texas. Appy State is D1-AA and there was no line. I love the Trojans here.

My bet is Troy +16.5

My prediction is LSwho 27-13

 

[RollTide72]

Vanderbilt at Kentucky

The Commodores are like Charlie Brown. Every time they get to 5 wins, Lucy pulls the ball away at the last second and they never get to the promised land. She also kicks them in the nuts for good measure. Vandy needs a win over UK, UcheaT or Wake Forest to become bowl eligible. If they don't qualify this year, I don't think they ever will.

Vandy was handled easily getting blown away 42-14 by Florida last week. After starting the season 5-0 and being ranked in the top 15, they?ve dropped four straight and are in serious danger of not making a bowl game. The ?Dores host the hapless UcheaT Viles next weekend before closing the season at Wake Forest, but with the way the offense has been sputtering and struggling, getting over the hump as soon as possible is a must.

Kentucky dropped a 42-38 shootout last weekend to the visiting UGA Bulldawgs. Freshman QB Randall Cobb did it through the air and on the ground, throwing for 105 yards while running for 82 more in his second start, but he got picked off late in the shootout. The Mildcats are off next week, before traveling to UcheaT to finish up the regular season.

Vanderbilt QB Mackenzi Adams suffered a hip pointer in the second half against Florida and is questionable this week. If Adams can?t go, Chris Nickson, who started the year as the Commodores? No. 1 quarterback, will take the snaps. WR George Smith played through a hamstring injury against Florida. He will play this week but isn?t expected to be anywhere near 100 percent.

Kentucky WR Kyrus Lanxter injured his shoulder last week against UGA but should play against Vanderbilt. DT Myron Pryor is doubtful this week. The senior is nursing a sprained ankle and also caught a virus that has been going through the locker room. CB Trevard Lindley injured his knee in the third quarter against UGA and is questionable. WR/KR DeMoreo Ford has been forced to give up football after suffering numerous concussions.

Vanderbilt has to put pressure on the quarterback. The Commodores lead the conference with 26 sacks and will try to rattle Cobb. It won?t be easy because the Mildcats allowed just 10 sacks and have a mobile quarterback who has been able to avoid problems. The Vandy offense isn?t good enough to go on a scoring run, to the defense has to create chances and opportunities.

Kentucky has to pound the ball. Cobb and RB Tony Dixon lead a rushing attack that totaled 226 yards against UGA. The Commodores rank tenth in the conference in rushing defense, allowing a not-that-bad 140 yards per game, but the less Cobb has to do throwing the ball, and the more he can get on the move, the better it?ll be for the Mildcats.

Keep an eye on ? Vanderbilt DB Myron Lewis. The junior leads the Commodores with five sacks to go along with 55 tackles and three interceptions. Look for the ?Dores to bring pressure on Cobb from all directions; Lewis needs to make his presence felt early on.

UK has won 6 of the last 7 meetings but almost half of the 80 games played through the years have been decided by a TD or less.

I can't quite figure out Vandy, or UK for that matter. Four points doesn't seem like that much and UK played their asses off against UGA last weekend. I think karma will be in effect next weekend for Vandy as they will get win #6 against UcheaT. This week, the Mildcats win, by at least 10. ON, ON U of K!

My bet is Mildcats -4

My prediction is UK 27-7

 

[RollTide72]

Totals....

Jawga at Awbarn... O/U 48
I think UGA is good for 4 TDs and Awbarn for 2 TDs. Throw in a couple of FGs and this total just goes over. This game has easily gone OVER the past three seasons. Gonna be close I think.

My lean is OVER 48

LA-Monroe at Ole Miss... O/U 54
I don't think more than 5 TDs are scored here. I see this game going well UNDER.

My bet is UNDER 54

USC-East at Florida... O/U 47.5
Trends for both teams go to the OVER. I like the USC-East defense to keep the Reptiles close. Plus, with wet weather expected, I love the UNDER.

My bet is UNDER 47.5

Mississippi State at Alabama... O/U 41
MSU's offense is not very good... 'Bama's D is very good. That does not bode well for lots of points. I think 'Bama wins this game with ease and just stays UNDER which is 7-2 the last 9 meetings.

My lean is UNDER 41

Vanderbilt at Kentucky... O/U 38
I dont' think Vandy can score more than 10 points and UK can definitely put 4 TDs on the board. This one is too close to call.

My lean is OVER 38.

Troy at LSwho... O/U 54
Trends for both teams go towards the OVER. Call this my anti-trend play. I like the UNDER as LSwho still has Lee under center and is good for at least 2 INTs.

My bet is UNDER 54.

 

[RollTide72]

Weather...

Auburn, AL
Decreasing cloudiness and windy. High 58F. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 mph.

Oxford, MS
Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 46F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.

Gainesville, FL
Variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. High 79F. Winds SW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Tuscaloosa, AL
Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low 45F. Winds NW at 10 to 20 mph.

Lexington, KY
Periods of rain and snow. Low 36F. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precip 40%.

Baton Rouge, LA
A mostly clear sky. Low around 45F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.

 

[RollTide72]

From Covers.com

Key College Line Moves

Troy at LSU

Where the line opened: LSU -19

Where it stands now: -16

Where the wise action is: Troy (+19 and +18 1/2 mainly). Our players are all over the favorite (78 percent backing LSU).

Over/under movement: 54 1/2 to 54. Players are actually leaning towards under 54 (56 percent).

Injuries: LSU QB Andrew Hatch is doubtful due to leg injury.

 

[RollTide72]

USC-East at Florida

South Carolina is thin in the secondary. The Gamecocks will be without starting free safety Chris Culliver for the first half against Florida, and his backup, freshman Akeem Auguste, missed practice time this week with a hamstring injury.

Might rethink my Cocks play. :shrug:

 

[trolln4walii]

An excellent job as usual with your great info Roll Tide :mj06: Thanks for sharing and BOL with your plays today:toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Thanks Ripken and T4W for the comments.

Stuck.... normally I would agree with you, but the Awbarn defense is HORRIBLE. Just don't see how they stay within 2 TDs.

Best of luck to everyone!

 

[Morris]

Nice job RollTide. GL today!!

 

[RollTide72]

Thanks Morris. Getting ready to call the local and get the final lines.

Miserable weather day here in Central Indiana. Good day to curl up on the sofa and watch college football all day.

:toast:

 

[Morris]

Miserable weather day here in Central Indiana. Good day to curl up on the sofa and watch college football all day.

:toast:

That's my plan!:toast:

 

[RollTide72]

Final lines from my local

UGA -9.5
AUB 47.5

ULM 55.5
MISS -22.5

USC 48
FLA -21.5

MSU 41
ALA -22

VAN 37.5
KTY -4

TROY 54
LSU -16.5

 

[JonaPhan]

I like it! Alabama should run all over those guy, I do kinda like Florida to put up about 50 again this week though. I think Auburn may play up to UGA today and 9.5 is heavy for this supposed "rivalry". Besides they have to try to win one more, Iron Bowl next week doesn't look favorable for my Tigers. GL, keep the tide rolling!