college plays for week #13....

[AR182]

106-78...

eventhough my won/lost record was positive last week, i wound up losing money because my 3 best bets all lost....one day i'll learn to be a flat bettor in college...all the time....


arkansas...p..

this is a good situation for ark. because they have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game while miss.st. could be a little flat after playing a tough game against #1 bama last week (0-9 ats in their last 9 post bama games) & playing rival miss. next week.....also ark. has not lost ats since the beginning of oct., while msu is now 0-4 ats in their last 4 games......in addition ark. could actually be bowl eligible by winning the next 2 weeks, while msu has little to play for in this game....

ark. has scored at least 20 points in 5 straight games....& that's 5 points more than the average scored per game by msu....& as a matter of fact msu has been held to single digits in 4 of their 10 games this season...

msu is 8-24 ats in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.....

msu is 3-14 ats off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992....

croom is 0-7 ats in home games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of msu.....


ark. has faced one of the nation?s toughest schedules and it is paying off because they are improving each week....& i'll take the team that is on the rise than the team that is going nowhere....


good luck

 

[Hooks]

Super job this year Al, I wish you were with us ( kniefl, senor capper ) Sunday. Say hi to Ms.S

 

[AR182]

believe me dave...i wish i could be there with you...


adding....

ncst+11.5....

here is something that i read that i found interesting....28 of the 38 games played in the acc conference have been decided by 11 or fewer points.....if duke is eliminated from this equation, there have been a total of 6 acc games this entire season in which the final margin was by more than this pointspread....

i have been playing ncst for the past few weeks & am not ready to get off of them yet...n.car.basically fell out of the acc coastal division race with their loss last week at maryland...they now need to win out & have miami, virginia, & vt lose at least once...they have to be disappointed after losing a tough, physical game to the terps, while ncst, who is getting healthier won its 2nd straight game last week.....also is 5-0 ats in their last 5...

some trends favoring ncst....

ncst is 6-0 ats against conference opponents this season...

ncst is 9-2 ats after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons...

o'brien is 7-0 ats off 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of ncst...

o'brien is 6-0 ats after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of ncst....

o'brien is 10-1 ats after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers in all games he has coached since 1992..



good luck

 

[LA Burns]

AR -

Ark is one of the stronger plays I've seen this year - gl as I will need the Hogs myself

LA Burns

 

[BadAngel]

GL AR. I like the Hogs myself.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....

adding....

memphis-5....

earlier this year, memphis went through a bad stretch where they lost 3 qbs within a 3 week period & because of this they had to change from a spread offense to a power run offense....& as a result they have averaged about 296 yppg running the ball.....now they are coming off a bye week & have only played 1 game since 10/25...this extra rest has allowed memphis to get healthy & they expect their starting qb hall (225 yppg...59%...10/6 ratio) & starting dt mcdonald (7 sacks) to return to the line-up....mcdonald should start against cfla, but not sure about hall....

c. fla is coming off an upset win last week over marshall......but their offense ranks last in the nation in total offense by averaging 235 ypg....& are averaging about 17ppg, 3 ypr, & 43% completion rate...& eventhough their defense is playing better (10 ppg in the last 3), they are still allowing an average of 35 ppg for the season....


play against - road underdogs (ucf) - off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win against a conference rival.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......41-14.....74.5%

the situation's record this season is......3-1....

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......13-3......81%


i'll take the team that needs a win to be bowl eligible over the team that has nothing to play for.....& i expect memphis to eventually wear down the ucf defense & win by double digits.....


good luck

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on all of em al

 

[blaster]

AR,
WAS LOOKIN AT MEMPHIS AS WELL. THINK THE REST THIS LATE IN THE YEAR CAN ONLY HELP. GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR ACTION.

BLASTER

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...

adding a play for friday....


under 56 buffalo / bg.....

i have this game capped at 48-49 & think that the buffalo offense may be a little flat coming off a 4ot game last week.....although there are more trends
for the over than the under....i am still playing the under...


good luck

 

[AR182]

adding....

tulsa-28(120)......

i usually don't like laying these type of points in a game but feel that this is a big mis-match.

a few weeks ago tulsa had their bcs bubble burst by losing to ark...& they followed that up by being completely blown-out 70-30 to houston last week. they are now in a 3 way tie for 1st in the cusa west conference.

but those 2 losses happened on the road.....they are a completely different team at home where they have dominated teams this year....at home they have averaged 61 ppg, rushed for 6 ypc, & completed 65% of their passes....they are also 4-0 ats at home covering spreads like 16.5 (rice), 20(utep), & 23 (ucf).....& i think they will have no problem covering against a team that is at least comparable to the other teams that they faced at home.....

tulane is a team that has been hit hard by injuries on their offense & average 18.7 ppg on the season....but only 12.7 on the road...& during the last 3 weeks they have averaged only 265 ypg.....their defense allows 30 ppg & 5.5 ypc on the road this year...tulane is also1-6 ats as conference dogs of 14 or more points in their last 7...

play on - A home team (tulsa) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team (>=34 ppg) against a poor defensive team (28-34 ppg) after 7+ games.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.....25-6.....80.6%

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....16-2.......88.8%

the average line posted in these games was.....team favored by 20.7

the average score in these games was...team 48.3, opponent 17.3



good luck

 

[freelancc]

glad to see you having a good season

 

[AR182]

thanks lance...

adding....

ohio+3 (120).....

this is more a situational play than anything else. akron is coming off a loss in a 4 ot game that they wanted to win very badly because it was their final game played at the rubber bowl, their home for the last 68 years....while ohio is coming off a bye with this game being their final home game of the season.


play against - road favorites (akron) - a good offensive team (28-34 ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 ppg) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more last game.

the ats record since 1992 is....38-13.......74.5%


i read the following trend on another forum....

In games 2-11, play against a conference favorite of 1-21points with less than 13 days rest off an ot suloss vs. an opponent not off aconference road su loss of 14+ points........those teams are 0-16 ats.


good luck

 

[Morris]

Like that Ohio play on them too. What do you think about OK? 59-2 at home with Stoops.

 

[AR182]

Like that Ohio play on them too. What do you think about OK? 59-2 at home with Stoops.

morris..

the more i look at the game the more i like okla....but not sure yet...

 

[AR182]

adding 3 dogs.....

n.mexico st+7 (120).....

i usually don't like to play against a rushing team like lou tech....but feel this is a flat spot for them after just qualifying for a bowl game, & coming off 3 wins in a row & playing a big game at home against nevada next week....i also think that lou tech tends to give up a lot of points against teams that attack them aggressively.....as what happened last week against utah st where lou tech gave up an astounding 17 yards per completion....in addition lou tech is 4-19-1, including 1-2 this year, (17%) in games after scoring 35 or more points....think nms will have a good performance in their last home game of the year & the last home game of their popular qb, chase holbrook.....


stanford +10 (120).....

bought this play yesterday but noticed that the line is now 8.5...still like it but not as strong...

i think this line shows a misconception about these 2 teams....

calif. has regressed over the last 2 seasons, while stanford has steadily improved over the same time frame...& a good example of this is that stanford is averaging more points per game this year in pac-10 play than calif...30.1 to 29.7...& also over the last 18 games dating back to last season, calif. is 8-10 su, while stanford is 7-11 su.....in the last 9 visits to calif., stanford is 5-4 su & 7-2 ats...they are also 5-0 ats in the last 5 games after playing usc....while calif. is is 2-8 su/ats in their final 3 games of the season for the past 3 years....i look for stanford to fight hard to qualify for a bowl game...


uab+7(120)....

e. carolina has now lost 20 players to injury this season....the wr,rb,ol,lb, & cb are positions that have been hit by injury & its starting to show as the most points ecu has scored in the last 3 games was 19 (averaging 15 ppg in their last 3 games)...& they needed ot to get it....& because of the injuries, i think uab & their dual threat qb could cause ecu problems....also uab is 7-0 ats in their last 7 as conference home dogs against teams that are better than .500....

play on any college dog of more than 4 points in its last home game of the season if they have 17 or more starters from last years team & are playing with revenge..since 1990 the ats record is...35-11 (76%)

play on - a home team (uab) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a win by 17 or more points.

since 1992 the ats record is......27-7......79.4%

over the last 5 seasons the ats record is.....15-2.....88%



good luck

 

[hawkeye]

GL-I am big on Tulsa and N Mex St

 

[AR182]

GL-I am big on Tulsa and N Mex St

thanks hawk....you should post them it will make me feel better knowing that you are on the same sides...

 

[AR182]

adding...

penn st.-15(120)...

this game is the big 10 title elimination game...a win secures at least a share of the tiltle for msu while psu would get the outright title if they beat msu.

the problem that i see with msu is that they are too 1 dimensional offensivley to beat a good defense like psu...ringer has carried the ball over 350 times this season & has accounted accounted for almost 3x as many tds as anybody else on the team.....in other words if you stop ringer, you win because there is nobody else to carry the team & the msu passing game only completes an average of 51% of their passes....in msu's 2 losses to calif. & ohio st....msu rushed for a total of 133 yards....psu allows an average of 101 rushing yards per game at 3 ypc.....

on the other hand psu rushes for an average of 6.2 ypr at home....while msu allows an average of 5.1 ypr....through the air psu completes 60% of their passes, while msu allows 55.6% completion on defense....

play against - road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (msu) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games.

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is......27-6.......81.8%

psu's lowest margin of victory at home has been 14 points....they have won by 27, 29, 42, & 31 points....& i don't see why the game against msu would be any different....


good luck

 

[tulah]

Glad to see you on Stanford+10. I totally agree with your thoughts on the game.


GL this week:toast:

 

[loophole]

great season you're having my friend. having about forty head out to the country today for the state/carolina game and then oysters on the dock afterwards. as a resul, no real time for a writeup so i thought i would add a line or two about your plays on my local teams.

at this point in the season, skip holtz is doing it with smoke and mirrors at ecu, as they are absolutely gutted with injuries. besides, love betting against the pirates as road favs. regarding today's line, during holtz's tenure the pirates have played twenty road games and won three of them by a touchdown or more (and 0 for 19 the three previous years). pirates are also 0 for 10 s/u in the state of alabama.

gotta back the pack with the dd spread. carolina had their heart ripped out last week in maryland, losing a game they shoiuld have won that cost them a shot at the acc championship and a major bowl. hard to get up for a big rival after a weekendlike that. meanwhile, obrien has the pack steadily improving each week, and the defense is a different team with nate irving back on the field. gut tells pack stays in contact today.

wishing you continued success with today's card.