Oh dear...
...on an 0-10 streak...haven't had a winning week in a month!! :sadwave:
Worst of all went -4 in H-K... kurby
43-41-2 (-0.79)
Well, onwards at least...upwards, who the hell knows! :shrug:
Tampa @ Detroit over 41.5
No trends, just figure there'll be some points!
Tampa moving the ball well, 9th in total yards, 3rd in TOP...but continue to stumble in the red zone.
Bucs, meet the Detroit Lions! Tied for the most TD's allowed (36) and giving up TD's about 70% of all scores. (Just 16 FG's) (Second only to Cleveland.)
Lions clearly look more threatening offensively with Culpepper onboard, 22 @ Carolina last week was solid.
Detroit have gone over this number in all but 2 games this season...both Orlovski's.
Cleveland v. Houston over 50
League: 11-2 over (Av. total 39.7...av. score 49.8) any away dog, off a SU loss but ats win as away 7+ dog, with <26 mins TOP. [Houst]
6-0 (Av. score 60.7!) if total is >40. (inc. Seattle 34-13 SF @ 41 this season)
Houston can move the ball. 27 points last week with just 25:45 TOP, now go up against a Brownie's team giving up 32.6 in their last 3 games, and are worst in the league at giving up TD's.
Rosenfels is throwing at over 8.1 ypp!
As I said in another thread, the Texan's D is awful, allowing 28.7 (3rd worst), and that includes a 6 from the terrible Cinci (last in scoring).
Cleveland have turned it around, av'ing over 27 ppg in their last 4, Quinn has stepped in nicely, and even with a slight injury concern I think this one has some points in it.
Miami v. NE over 42 &
Atlanta v. Carolina over 42.5 (1.97)
League: 12-0 over (Av. total 43.7...av. score 54.5) at home, inside Div, at any line better than +6, off a 7+ ats loss as home fav, if they had 30+ mins TOP, the total is 40.5+ and opp is off an ats loss. [Miami AND Atlanta]
Looks long-winded but really it isn't. Basically it's a story of defenses. Both Miami and Atlanta controlled the clock, but allowed enough points in a short time to lose ats.
Both Carolina and NE lost ats by allowing big points to teams that haven't been big scorers.
Atlanta av. over 29 ppg at home this season, Panthers have given up 20+ in 3 of 4 on the road, and Oakland are awful!
Delhomme has been struggling, but the run game has come on strong, and should have another big day against a Falcon's team allowing 4.9 ypc, and as mentioned, gave up 24 points in just 26 mins last week.
You have to think NE will be guarding the ground game @ Miami, so there should be more than usual balls in the air this week...esp. with Miami's run D allowing just 3.7 ypc.
Dolphins have given up late TD's to 2 terrible offenses in the last couple of weeks, so NE will always be in the game.
Plenty of passing, and enough scoring for at least a 23-20 game I reckon! kurby
Denver v. Oakland under 43 (1.97)
League: 1-7-2 under (1-9 this no...av. total 43.9...av. score 38.1) 7+ dog, off an ats win as a dog, if opp is off an upset SU win with <30 mins TOP, and total is 40+ [Oak]
0-7-1 (Av. score 35.2) if they were away...Team av's 8.1 ppg!
Not much else to say really! Oakland just don't score enough to deserve a total this high.
They've scored a total of 50 points in their last 6 games, going 1-5 under, and haven't had a game top 40.
Both teams have poor run D's which will see plenty of long, time consuming drives (Denver av. 4.5ypc, but have had just TWO over 20 yards!!:scared )...
...there's always the chance that Denver smack them ala week 1, but I'll take the chance of a 30-10 scoreline.
Buffalo @ KC under 43.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 37.7...av. score 33.2) on the road off an upset SU loss with 30+ mins TOP, if opp lost ats as a home dog. [Buff]
0-7 under (Av. score 29.1) if they are road favs.
Buffalo have hit the skids in the last month. Scored 27 last week, but with a KO return, 10, 17, 16 before that...
...have topped 20 on the road just once all season, which was a 31 @ SL, but had just 277 total offensive yards in that game!!
KC have been blown out late in some games giving up large running plays, but I don't think Buffalo can take advantage, with ther 24th ranked run game (3.8 ypc)
On the surface, Thigpen has had a flying start, but big games v. Jets, NO and SD...ranked 26, 28 and 32 for pass yards allowed...
...Buff are 13th, allowing just on 200 ypg. (@ 6.7)
I won't at all be surprised to see the Ciefs win this game SU, but either way, I don't think the winner will top 20. :shrug:
(Not 2 minutes after I placed this bet, the total dropped to 42.5, and now is 42 and falling even! Still no idea why...just good timing I guess.)
Jets @ Tenn under 40
No trends again, just 2 solid run D's going head to head.
Jets have haad a very soft defensive schedule, imho...the "best" team they've faced for y/play has been Buffalo (13th)...Titans are 2nd (4.4) and allow the least points (13.1)
Collins has shown he can throw it when he needs to, but they are still very much a run first team, and Jets allow just 3.4 ypr.
They did have a 30-17 game v. Minni which is a slight concern, but 13-10 @ Baltimore and 21-14 @ Chicago...they are the only 3 teams they've faced in the top 20 for rush D!
...which leads me to...
Chris Johnson under 78.5 yards rushing (1.87)
He's topped this number 4 times for the year...as I just said, all to teams ranked 20th or worse (actually 21st or worse in ypc).
17/61 v. Minni, 18/44 @ Balt, 14/8 (yep, that's the right way around! :scared ) @ Chicago...
...'only' 77 v. Indi (21st), 89 v. GB (28th) and 64 v. Jax (21st) in the last month.
Looks like another tough game for him here.
Cassel over 21 completions (1.95)
Low total based on the last meeting I suspect.
Cassel has gone under 21 just once in the last 7 games, that was a 18/24 game v. Denver which they won 41-7 and ran the ball 38 times!
He did have 19/31 in the first meeting v. Miami and spent the last series on the bench as O'Connell went 3/4.
Dolphins had the ball for over 32:30 minutes that game, which I doubt will happen here.
More pass attempts agaisnt a team that allowed over 21 (to both QB's) last game...and gave up 21 completions a couple of weeks ago to Seneca Wallace.
Enough said.
Indi @ SD over 49 (1.96)
League: 10-1 over (Av. total 46.1...av. score 53.1) non-Div dog, off an ats loss but SU win as a 7+ fav, with 32+ mins TOP, an total here is 42.5+ [Indi]
6-0 (Av. score 55.5) if total is 44.5+
Indi allowing nearly 140 ypg on the ground, Sanders likely out again, having given up 25/177 to Houston last week without him...only LT to stop this week! kurby
They've given up over 25 ppg on the road in 5 games, despite having played just one team (GB) in the top 10 for scoring. (SD are 7th)
SD dead last in pass yards per game, good news for Manning (6th in passing yards)...
...the only other teams they've (SD) faced in the top 10 are NO, gave up 37, and Denver, gave up 39!!
Right, I think that's it...couldn't go 0-20 could I?! :0corn
Good Luck all
...on an 0-10 streak...haven't had a winning week in a month!! :sadwave:
Worst of all went -4 in H-K... kurby
43-41-2 (-0.79)
Well, onwards at least...upwards, who the hell knows! :shrug:
Tampa @ Detroit over 41.5
No trends, just figure there'll be some points!
Tampa moving the ball well, 9th in total yards, 3rd in TOP...but continue to stumble in the red zone.
Bucs, meet the Detroit Lions! Tied for the most TD's allowed (36) and giving up TD's about 70% of all scores. (Just 16 FG's) (Second only to Cleveland.)
Lions clearly look more threatening offensively with Culpepper onboard, 22 @ Carolina last week was solid.
Detroit have gone over this number in all but 2 games this season...both Orlovski's.
Cleveland v. Houston over 50
League: 11-2 over (Av. total 39.7...av. score 49.8) any away dog, off a SU loss but ats win as away 7+ dog, with <26 mins TOP. [Houst]
6-0 (Av. score 60.7!) if total is >40. (inc. Seattle 34-13 SF @ 41 this season)
Houston can move the ball. 27 points last week with just 25:45 TOP, now go up against a Brownie's team giving up 32.6 in their last 3 games, and are worst in the league at giving up TD's.
Rosenfels is throwing at over 8.1 ypp!
As I said in another thread, the Texan's D is awful, allowing 28.7 (3rd worst), and that includes a 6 from the terrible Cinci (last in scoring).
Cleveland have turned it around, av'ing over 27 ppg in their last 4, Quinn has stepped in nicely, and even with a slight injury concern I think this one has some points in it.
Miami v. NE over 42 &
Atlanta v. Carolina over 42.5 (1.97)
League: 12-0 over (Av. total 43.7...av. score 54.5) at home, inside Div, at any line better than +6, off a 7+ ats loss as home fav, if they had 30+ mins TOP, the total is 40.5+ and opp is off an ats loss. [Miami AND Atlanta]
Looks long-winded but really it isn't. Basically it's a story of defenses. Both Miami and Atlanta controlled the clock, but allowed enough points in a short time to lose ats.
Both Carolina and NE lost ats by allowing big points to teams that haven't been big scorers.
Atlanta av. over 29 ppg at home this season, Panthers have given up 20+ in 3 of 4 on the road, and Oakland are awful!
Delhomme has been struggling, but the run game has come on strong, and should have another big day against a Falcon's team allowing 4.9 ypc, and as mentioned, gave up 24 points in just 26 mins last week.
You have to think NE will be guarding the ground game @ Miami, so there should be more than usual balls in the air this week...esp. with Miami's run D allowing just 3.7 ypc.
Dolphins have given up late TD's to 2 terrible offenses in the last couple of weeks, so NE will always be in the game.
Plenty of passing, and enough scoring for at least a 23-20 game I reckon! kurby
Denver v. Oakland under 43 (1.97)
League: 1-7-2 under (1-9 this no...av. total 43.9...av. score 38.1) 7+ dog, off an ats win as a dog, if opp is off an upset SU win with <30 mins TOP, and total is 40+ [Oak]
0-7-1 (Av. score 35.2) if they were away...Team av's 8.1 ppg!
Not much else to say really! Oakland just don't score enough to deserve a total this high.
They've scored a total of 50 points in their last 6 games, going 1-5 under, and haven't had a game top 40.
Both teams have poor run D's which will see plenty of long, time consuming drives (Denver av. 4.5ypc, but have had just TWO over 20 yards!!:scared )...
...there's always the chance that Denver smack them ala week 1, but I'll take the chance of a 30-10 scoreline.
Buffalo @ KC under 43.5
League: 2-10 under (Av. total 37.7...av. score 33.2) on the road off an upset SU loss with 30+ mins TOP, if opp lost ats as a home dog. [Buff]
0-7 under (Av. score 29.1) if they are road favs.
Buffalo have hit the skids in the last month. Scored 27 last week, but with a KO return, 10, 17, 16 before that...
...have topped 20 on the road just once all season, which was a 31 @ SL, but had just 277 total offensive yards in that game!!
KC have been blown out late in some games giving up large running plays, but I don't think Buffalo can take advantage, with ther 24th ranked run game (3.8 ypc)
On the surface, Thigpen has had a flying start, but big games v. Jets, NO and SD...ranked 26, 28 and 32 for pass yards allowed...
...Buff are 13th, allowing just on 200 ypg. (@ 6.7)
I won't at all be surprised to see the Ciefs win this game SU, but either way, I don't think the winner will top 20. :shrug:
(Not 2 minutes after I placed this bet, the total dropped to 42.5, and now is 42 and falling even! Still no idea why...just good timing I guess.)
Jets @ Tenn under 40
No trends again, just 2 solid run D's going head to head.
Jets have haad a very soft defensive schedule, imho...the "best" team they've faced for y/play has been Buffalo (13th)...Titans are 2nd (4.4) and allow the least points (13.1)
Collins has shown he can throw it when he needs to, but they are still very much a run first team, and Jets allow just 3.4 ypr.
They did have a 30-17 game v. Minni which is a slight concern, but 13-10 @ Baltimore and 21-14 @ Chicago...they are the only 3 teams they've faced in the top 20 for rush D!
...which leads me to...
Chris Johnson under 78.5 yards rushing (1.87)
He's topped this number 4 times for the year...as I just said, all to teams ranked 20th or worse (actually 21st or worse in ypc).
17/61 v. Minni, 18/44 @ Balt, 14/8 (yep, that's the right way around! :scared ) @ Chicago...
...'only' 77 v. Indi (21st), 89 v. GB (28th) and 64 v. Jax (21st) in the last month.
Looks like another tough game for him here.
Cassel over 21 completions (1.95)
Low total based on the last meeting I suspect.
Cassel has gone under 21 just once in the last 7 games, that was a 18/24 game v. Denver which they won 41-7 and ran the ball 38 times!
He did have 19/31 in the first meeting v. Miami and spent the last series on the bench as O'Connell went 3/4.
Dolphins had the ball for over 32:30 minutes that game, which I doubt will happen here.
More pass attempts agaisnt a team that allowed over 21 (to both QB's) last game...and gave up 21 completions a couple of weeks ago to Seneca Wallace.
Enough said.
Indi @ SD over 49 (1.96)
League: 10-1 over (Av. total 46.1...av. score 53.1) non-Div dog, off an ats loss but SU win as a 7+ fav, with 32+ mins TOP, an total here is 42.5+ [Indi]
6-0 (Av. score 55.5) if total is 44.5+
Indi allowing nearly 140 ypg on the ground, Sanders likely out again, having given up 25/177 to Houston last week without him...only LT to stop this week! kurby
They've given up over 25 ppg on the road in 5 games, despite having played just one team (GB) in the top 10 for scoring. (SD are 7th)
SD dead last in pass yards per game, good news for Manning (6th in passing yards)...
...the only other teams they've (SD) faced in the top 10 are NO, gave up 37, and Denver, gave up 39!!
Right, I think that's it...couldn't go 0-20 could I?! :0corn
Good Luck all
Last edited:
