NFL Week #16...The Winning Continues!! $$$

[FirstnGoal]

I've been on fire as of late!


:00hour


And I like this weeks card much better than last weeks.


:yup


I have One Play for now which will be the highest rated play for the week?hit it ASAP before the lines move!!

Medium Size 2 Unit Play:

2 game 6 point teaser:
Dallas Cowboys +2
over Ravens
&
Pittsburgh Steelers +7
Over Titans

Cowboys +2?The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 SU with their lone loss being to Pittsburgh the hottest teams in the league?this week they remain home to face a Ravens team that lost to the Steelers (as I expected) and is really banged up in their secondary?I pointed out last week that the Ravens banged up secondary could be the difference in their game with the Steelers because 2 starters (CB McAllister and SS Landry) were out?add Cb Fabian Washington to the injury list with a hamstring strain in which the chances of him being near 100% are slim and none?this doesn?t bode well for a Ravens team that will be facing a Cowboys passing attack that should excel in this matchup?I?m also going against rookie Joe Flacco once again on the road as he faces a Cowboys defense that was dominant last week?also keep in mind that the Ravens have been blown out twice on the road this season losing to the Giants 30-10 and to Indy 31-3?the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games?4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall?on the flips side the Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall?but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a road doggie of 3.5-10.0 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games?.The better and hotter team comes out on top on Saturday.
Dallas 27 Baltimore 17 LOSER!
What Happened to the 'Boys run defense? :shrug:

Pittsburgh +7?As I pointed out last week the Steelers are peaking as a team and are one of the hottest teams in the league at this time?this week they face a Titans team that is beginning to fade due to injuries and a lack of firepower on offense in the passing game?this week the Titans offense faces a Steelers defense that?s the #1 ranked pass defense, the #2 rushing defense and the #1 overall ranked defense in the entire league...on the flips side the Steelers are a balanced team that can hurt you on the ground behind the running of Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Gary Russell and through the air behind the passing of Ben Roethlisberger?this week they face a Titans defense that has been solid all season but will be without arguably two of their best defenders in DE Kyle Vandenbosch and DT Albert Haynesworth?overall I like the Steelers chances of putting points on the board better that I like the Titans chances this Sunday?Trends ? The Titans have several good trends pointing their way while the Steelers are an impressive 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 6-1 SU on the road this season?just a hunch that I won?t need the generous +7 that I have in this teaser .
Pittsburgh 20 Tennessee 16



I will definitely have a second play for the week which I?m working on at this time.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Overall 2008 Recap

Record:

27-17-4

Breakdown:

Teasers:
17-10-3

Sides:
10-7-1

Big 3 unit plays:
1-1

Medium 2 unit plays:
9-3

Small 1 unit plays:
10-7-1

Very Small 1/2 unit plays:
6-4-1

Very Very Small 1/4 Unit plays:
1-1

Total = +12.83 units @ $3000 a unit = +$38,490

Leans:
14-6-1

 

[el JB]

like pitts +7 but prefer ravens's +11.5

like pitts +7 but prefer ravens's +11.5

as known Raven's def has been succesfull and after a disheartening loss to pitts, i think they will give their biggest effort to this one.
anyway best of luck and thanks for previous input

 

[FirstnGoal]

as known Raven's def has been succesfull and after a disheartening loss to pitts, i think they will give their biggest effort to this one.
anyway best of luck and thanks for previous input

Best of Luck to you as Well!

:toast:

My gut tells me that the Ravens have a better chance of letting this one slip away than they do of beating the 'Boys SU in this one...thus the play with the 'Boys +2...when I broke this one down the one glaring mismatch is the Ravens banged up secondary versus the Cowboys passing attack...Fabian Washington is their 3rd corner and with him being hurt the Ravens will be forced to start career backup Frank Walker :scared opposite of Samari Rolle...but just as importantly their nickle and dime defense changes as well as Corey Ivy :scared becomes their nickle DB and Evan Oglesby :scared being their dime DB...you can best be sure (with the talent they have at the WR position) that the 'Boys will use plenty of 3 and 4 WR sets in this one to take advantage of the mismatch. :yup

 

[FirstnGoal]

I'm passing on tonight's game between the Colts and Jaguars...even though the Jags haven't lived up to expectations this year you can best be sure that they will be primed for tonight's game against their division rival the Colts...on the other hand the Colts have been hot as of late but are a banged up team at this time and they struggled to beat the Lions at home last week...I'll pass and watch.:0corn

 

[CartersCubs]

did you see the vikes stuggle against the lions 2 weeks ago? then they go to arizona and smash the cards. colts didnt stuggle against the lions as much as the vikes did so how can anyone possibly have a play to take the jags tonight?

 

[owtkast3]

I've been on fire as of late!


:00hour


And I like this weeks card much better than last weeks.


:yup


I have One Play for now which will be the highest rated play for the week?hit it ASAP before the lines move!!

Medium Size 2 Unit Play:

2 game 6 point teaser:
Dallas Cowboys +2
over Ravens
&
Pittsburgh Steelers +7
Over Titans

Cowboys +2?The Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 SU with their lone loss being to Pittsburgh the hottest teams in the league?this week they remain home to face a Ravens team that lost to the Steelers (as I expected) and is really banged up in their secondary?I pointed out last week that the Ravens banged up secondary could be the difference in their game with the Steelers because 2 starters (CB McAllister and SS Landry) were out?add Cb Fabian Washington to the injury list with a hamstring strain in which the chances of him being near 100% are slim and none?this doesn?t bode well for a Ravens team that will be facing a Cowboys passing attack that should excel in this matchup?I?m also going against rookie Joe Flacco once again on the road as he faces a Cowboys defense that was dominant last week?also keep in mind that the Ravens have been blown out twice on the road this season losing to the Giants 30-10 and to Indy 31-3?the Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games?4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall?on the flips side the Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall?but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a road doggie of 3.5-10.0 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games?.The better and hotter team comes out on top on Saturday.
Dallas 27 Baltimore 17

Pittsburgh +7?As I pointed out last week the Steelers are peaking as a team and are one of the hottest teams in the league at this time?this week they face a Titans team that is beginning to fade due to injuries and a lack of firepower on offense in the passing game?this week the Titans offense faces a Steelers defense that?s the #1 ranked pass defense, the #2 rushing defense and the #1 overall ranked defense in the entire league...on the flips side the Steelers are a balanced team that can hurt you on the ground behind the running of Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore and Gary Russell and through the air behind the passing of Ben Roethlisberger?this week they face a Titans defense that has been solid all season but will be without arguably two of their best defenders in DE Kyle Vandenbosch and DT Albert Haynesworth?overall I like the Steelers chances of putting points on the board better that I like the Titans chances this Sunday?Trends ? The Titans have several good trends pointing their way while the Steelers are an impressive 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 6-1 SU on the road this season?just a hunch that I won?t need the generous +7 that I have in this teaser .
Pittsburgh 20 Tennessee 16



I will definitely have a second play for the week which I?m working on at this time.

Just wondering where you got Pittsburgh +1 at??

 

[edludes]

Carters Cubs-The single biggest mistake people make in handicapping sports is overvaluing the last game.Teams play differently each week due to a variety of reasons,many of them related to how seriously they prepare,who are they playing next,did their star reciever cause a distraction by shooting himself in the leg.The vikings had two road games,one they knew they could toss their jocks out on the field and win,one where they were not expected to win.they saved the major psych job for the cards,to say they threw the same performance at detroit as they gave to Arizona would be a mistake,you have to anticipate if you are going to get level 1 2 or 3 effort and preparation from a team,this is a key component to handicapping.

 

[rubiconed]

GL this week First !!! :mj06:

 

[CartersCubs]

Carters Cubs-The single biggest mistake people make in handicapping sports is overvaluing the last game.Teams play differently each week due to a variety of reasons,many of them related to how seriously they prepare,who are they playing next,did their star reciever cause a distraction by shooting himself in the leg.The vikings had two road games,one they knew they could toss their jocks out on the field and win,one where they were not expected to win.they saved the major psych job for the cards,to say they threw the same performance at detroit as they gave to Arizona would be a mistake,you have to anticipate if you are going to get level 1 2 or 3 effort and preparation from a team,this is a key component to handicapping.

I couldn't agree more with your point. my point was exactly that. Most people on here are taking the jags tonight based on the fact that the lions played with the colts last week and now the colts wont be able to handle the jags due to last week.

 

[CartersCubs]

i was commenting on FirstNGoals post

 

[Old School]

Just wondering where you got Pittsburgh +1 at??

6 point teaser...

and a very generous local book


Tenn. opened at -1 and now Pitt sits at -2


Dallas opened -5 and now sits at -4

just checked several of the prefered books here and not much sway..




gl w/the tease

 

[FirstnGoal]

did you see the vikes stuggle against the lions 2 weeks ago? then they go to arizona and smash the cards. colts didnt stuggle against the lions as much as the vikes did so how can anyone possibly have a play to take the jags tonight?

That game played out exactly the way I figured it would...that was the Jags Super Bowl in a sense.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Just wondering where you got Pittsburgh +1 at??

Bet Jamaica
5 Dimes
Pinnacle
Bet Cris

I've been posting on Thursday or Friday for most of this season but posted the tease earlier this week and noted to hit it ASAP before the lines move. After breaking it down I had a hunch that the line might move quickly and boy did it ever.

 

[FirstnGoal]

GL this week First !!! :mj06:

:toast:

 

[FirstnGoal]

6 point teaser...

and a very generous local book


Tenn. opened at -1 and now Pitt sits at -2


Dallas opened -5 and now sits at -4

just checked several of the prefered books here and not much sway..




gl w/the tease

:toast:

 

[FirstnGoal]

Added this Very Small 1/2 Unit Play:

2 game 6.5 point teaser
Denver Broncos -0.5 over Bills
I liked the Bills +9 last week as my one and only leans but in my opinion the Bills left everything that they had physically and emotionally on the field last week in their loss to the Jets?they outplayed the Jets but came out on the losing end due to a huge play calling mistake by their coach Dick Jauron?their slim playoff chances have disappeared?the only reason that I?m hesitant to elevate this to a higher-rated play is because the Broncos will know their fate for the playoffs before they step on the field since the Chargers play the Bucs at 1:00 on Sunday?if the Lightning Bolts lose the Broncos could ease up on the peddle...either way?I feel that for all of the reasons I mentioned the Broncos will still come out on top this week.
Denver 27 Buffalo 19 LOSER

&

New England Patriots -2.5 over Cardinals
The Cardinals looked like a disinterested team last week at home versus the Vikings since the game meant nothing to the Birds?I expect a better effort this week by the Cards but the weather (temps in the mid 30?s, winds from 18 mph and a 70% chance of mixed precipitation) will hamper the Cardinals aerial attack and the fact that WR Anquan Boldin and HB/RS J.J. Arrington will be sidelined makes this a somewhat easy pick for me here?this game means everything to the Patriots who need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
New England 24 Arizona 16


And I added this Very Small 1/2 Unit Play:


3 game 10 point teaser
Detroit Lions +17 over Saints
The Saints playoff hopes faded in their loss to the Bears last week?just a hunch that the Lions keep this one very close with a chance to win it outright.
Detroit 24 New Orleans 23 LOSER
I thought I learned my lesson in week one = If you bet on BAD Football teams you usually get BAD results.

San Diego Chargers +13.5 over Bucs
The Bucs defense is banged up and has been very poor versus the run as of late?Jeff Garcia?s playing status is up in the air?and?the Chargers still have a shot at the postseason if they come out on top on Sunday?this one goes down to the wire.
San Diego 21 Tampa Bay 20

Green Bay Packers +14 over Bears (Monday Night)
This game means nothing to the Packers except for the rivalry between the two?need I say any more?...with temps in the single digits, I expect a rather low scoring game.
Chicago 17 Green Bay 16

 

[FirstnGoal]

Really like this one so I added another 1 Unit on this Play: (A total of 1 1/2 Units)

2 game 6.5 point teaser
Denver Broncos -0.5 over Bills
I liked the Bills +9 last week as my one and only leans but in my opinion the Bills left everything that they had physically and emotionally on the field last week in their loss to the Jets?they outplayed the Jets but came out on the losing end due to a huge play calling mistake by their coach Dick Jauron?their slim playoff chances have disappeared?the only reason that I?m hesitant to elevate this to a higher-rated play is because the Broncos will know their fate for the playoffs before they step on the field since the Chargers play the Bucs at 1:00 on Sunday?if the Lightning Bolts lose the Broncos could ease up on the peddle...either way?I feel that for all of the reasons I mentioned the Broncos will still come out on top this week.
Denver 27 Buffalo 19

&

New England Patriots -2.5 over Cardinals
The Cardinals looked like a disinterested team last week at home versus the Vikings since the game meant nothing to the Birds?I expect a better effort this week by the Cards but the weather (temps in the mid 30?s, winds from 18 mph and a 70% chance of mixed precipitation) will hamper the Cardinals aerial attack and the fact that WR Anquan Boldin and HB/RS J.J. Arrington will be sidelined makes this a somewhat easy pick for me here?this game means everything to the Patriots who need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
New England 24 Arizona 16

 

[FirstnGoal]

Lean Only:

Seattle Seahawks +3.5
Mike Holmgrens last home game as coach of the Hawks coupled with the Jets poor performance this season on the West Coast...just a hunch that the 'Hawks come to play today and give the Jets a scare.

WINNER!

 

[FirstnGoal]

Well my hot winning streak came to a screaching halt this week as I lost 4.80 units and 5 figures in the process ...the Cowboys left their run defense at home, the Steelers had the game in hand early until Big Ben became a turnover machine and I knew that the Broncos defense was poor...but calling them poor is an understatement...if it's any consolation...my Lean for the week the Seahawks +3.5 won outright pushing my leans to 15-6-1 on the year.


Overall 2008 Recap

Record:

27-20-4

Breakdown:

Teasers:
17-13-3

Sides:
10-7-1

Big 3 unit plays:
1-1

Medium 2 unit plays:
9-4

Small 1 unit plays:
10-8-1

Very Small 1/2 unit plays:
6-6-1

Very Very Small 1/4 Unit plays:
1-1

Total = +8.03 units @ $3000 a unit = +$24,090

Leans:
15-6-1