Bowl Season Card ( Dec 20th - Jan 8th)

Irish

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First and foremost...
Happy holidays to all!, Stop to enjoy every moment..... the silent majesty of a winter's morn... the clean, cool chill of the holiday air... an asshole in his bathrobe, emptying a chemical toilet into my sewer...

Wake (-3) over Navy W
24-17 should be the number carved into the brains of Wake players. Wake was the 16th ranked team in the country before that loss to Navy. One of the best things about this game is that they have played this season and Wake lost. See the wishbone is very tough to stop but the deamon dacons not only have current game film of them against it but the players have first hand knowledge of playing it. This is big because of the experience they have at defense, this is not a young team and should be able to bounce back after the first meeting to play better defense. All the game film in the world will be meaningless if Riley Skinner has a game like he did the first time. Throwing 4 picks against anyone is not the way to go but especially against a Navy team that uses a lot of clock when they have the ball. Navy led the nation with 298.3 rushing yards per game. White racked up 1,021 yards and eight touchdowns in 12 games, ranking third nationally with an 8.7 yards-per-carry average. It is important to have gap control to get Navy out of those 2nd or 3rd short yardage plays, put them behind the chains and force them to change the plan. This will be a game that comes down to who can force the other out of the game plan. Can the deacons turn the offense on, they have the ability but can they turn it on? The Deacons rank 103rd nationally in total offense (315.8), 101st in rushing yards (111.6) and 97th in scoring offense (20.3). They have scored only 20 touchdowns in 41 trips inside the red zone. This one will come down to motivation and the upper classmen will have the players up for the game. After all, Wake's senior class will leave as the winningest class in school history. They enter the bowl game with a four-year record of 31-19 with three bowl appearances and the 2006 ACC Championship. I always hear how hard it is to beat a team twice, well in the first game Wake beat themselves. So really Navy could come in and win this game by just outplaying Wake. That being said Wake is hot and cold, they have one series where they look like the Colts offense of years back and then a series where they look like a high school JV squad. I think it stems from the offense not being intense series after series. When they score or get on top they don't keep the pedal down and look for more, they take a deep breath and then by the time they turn around they are in a close game. That is why Navy is going to be a tough out for them because the midshipman are the photo negitive of that, they are going hard all game. They may not be successful but the push back and are not pushed over. Wake has the passing attack and offense ability to get ahead of this team and force them to play catch up and pass more which hurts the overall effectivness of the novicane wishbone. I also know Navy will pass deep, they save these little passing plays for big games and they have a senior QB that can chuck it, especially when you have a defense playing run only. I do not think they will go only to the pass but it will be more of a factor. To say more of a factor is easy considering this team has gone whole games without throwing one pass. Wakes defense should keep them at bay, and the offense with all this practice tme should come out like they did in week one. I also have issues with a Navy team that was handled by Notre Dame, I know they have some good wins but if ND could hold them down I would think Wake can as well.

Cheers
Irish
 
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Irish

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Thanks guys,

Fresno (-3) over Colorado State L
Not too much to write up about this game. Fresno has been banged up all season and they are starting to get the players back to make them a very good team. Even though this is not where the dogs wanted to be at the start of the season Hill will want to win this game since they are in it. Colorado state was hot of late having to win a few games to become bowl eliglbe, this is why I like Fresno. I think the Rams are going to be so happy to be there they come out strong but burn out. The dogs have been there before and know how to prepare this is the first for some Colorado state players and coaches and come game time they will be hyped but they should hit the wall in the running game of fresno. The dogs ran for 400 plus against nevada and held two teams to negative yards rushing. This is a team that needs a spark after a sub par season and that means a good showing in the bowl. Fresno has the passing attack but they will live by the run and when you have a team with a good running attack and a decent defense that had some players return should be enough. Frenso is getting players comfortable in the gameplan and they should be too powerful over the corse of the game. Getting players in the starting line up for more thaqn one game should pay off come game time. The dogs will run it and play hard against the strength of colorado state which is the run.

BYU (+3) over Zona L
I just do not like what I saw from the wildcats this season. This will be a big motivation game for Arizona because they want the win but even though they want the win I do not think they can hammer BYU a team that seems to battle for the entire game. Looking at Arizona to look to its weapons at Tight End and not move the ball enough. Max Hall needs to get his head out of his arse and show up. They have a bowling ball at running back and a defense that should give Tuitomio some trouble. This will be a dog fight and I like the underdog to keep it close, I think the motivation might be enough for Arizona to win this game but if the cougars show up which will be a tough challenge they have the peices to win this outright.

S.Fla (-11.5) over Memphis W
This is just a play on memphis being a bad team. They have a sive on defense and the offense is not great against hard nosed teams. A rested S.Fla defense should be up to the challege, they are playing a home game pretty much and the offense should be able to move the ball at will if they try. The question is do the bulls play hard, I think they will because they have underachieved all season and they have a lot of factors in their favor. They need to use the speed on outside and Grothe needs to find his game which the time off should help. The Bull have killed me all season but I think they have no team in front of them in this game and over time they pull away and Memphis just won't have enough to stay with in striking distance.

Montana (+1.5) over Richmond L
Heart felt wins against App st and N Iowa might have taxed the spiders too much and even though I do not like how Richmond won against JMU (Turnovers and injuries to QB) they still played hard annd made it happen. They need to have the same thoughts tonight and they can muster up a win,


Plays against bad teams that I think are lucky to be in bowl games.
UNC (ML) over WVU
Before the last three games UNC was looking at the ACC championship. They will bottle up the threat of WVU (White) and it should get ugly. Remember White likes the ball in his hands and when that happens Devine does not get the touches and thats not good. They don't throw the ball enough and UNC should not be affraid of a defense that has been easy to pass against all season. WVU defensive numbers are a joke, they are not a strong team.

Hawaii (-1.5) over ND
See "Talk me off ND" thread

Cheers
Irish
 
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el JB

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like almost all your plays but i see Arizona getting their way over BYU's D enough for a clear win.
Also i see So Fla scoring at will ...so the OVER 52should happen well before the end, no matter what the teams play
 

Irish

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Troy (-4.5) over S.Miss L
I mentioned a lot of this in AR thread. Looking at S.Miss they are a book killer over the past 4 weeks. Winning those games by good margins but playing bad teams. The only game of those last 4 that makes me think S.Miss is the real deal is the 20-3 win over ECU. Still wins against UCF, SMU and UAB are not making me think this team is ready to take the next step. Befoer those 4 wins the golden eagles struggle against teams the likes of Memphis, UTEP, Rice and Marshall. Now Troy has 4 loses but they come at LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma State. Now that is going and putting yourself out their against the better out of conference teams. The other loss on the season was to La Laff by a point and that was a battle. Troy always comes to play in bowl games and they like to play hard when they are getting attention. This is a team that is very hungry after what happened to them last season and they want to win. Like the Trojans, USM ranks among the top 40 teams in the nation in all four major offensive categories (rushing, passing, total offense and scoring). First year head coach has ability to gameplan comeing over from Okie State, but he might not be ready to keep his kids focused in this contest. he Trojans have allowed only nine points the past two games. The front four is very athletic and does a great job rushing the passer. The linebacking duo of Boris Lee and Bear Woods is the best in the Sun Belt, and the secondary has improved. Troy has great team speed on defense, which will be a key in this game. Troy's offensive line has allowed only nine sacks all season. The big, physical and experienced group should be able to match up well with Southern Mississippi's defensive line, which has recorded only 16 sacks. This is a big key because Troy have been averaging 33 points a game and given time Levi can pick this secondary appart. On the other side it is going to take the stout front four of Troy to get to fletcher, who is the engine of the So. Miss offense. Troy willl have to be ready for the pread attack of S.Miss. The balanced spread attack averages 238.2 passing yards and 196.3 rushing yards per game. What I think this comes down to is what will S.Miss do when they are up against a team that is better than they are, see they have been the better team in the last 4 games and they have played that way. In games where they think they are going to be in a dog fight they don't finish. I see a hungry Troy team after last season against a S.Miss team that should feel lucky to be in this bowwl. Troy will not be scared of S.Miss and they will play faster and harder and be the better team on the field tonight.

EDIT.... Thanks El JB, have a good holiday.

Cheers
Irish
 
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tulah

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I think your spot on with Troy.
Troy should win this game easily.

GL this Bowl season
Happy holidays to you and yours
 

Irish

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Thanks Tulah

Funny how that S.Miss/Troy game finnished up. I guess the coach figured with a ten point lead mid third quarter he could just take a knee and S.Miss will not bother trying to win. That was a great play by the wide reciever knowing the distance and coming back to lose yards on the catch.

EDIT: Record 2-4
TCU (-2.5) over Boise
This is a very hard game to look at because both teams are very good. Boise is never to be overlooked in the bowl and we have an interest in TCU head coach looking at offers. After Boise State beat TCU in the Fort Worth Bowl in 2003, Patterson and his coaches paid a visit to Boise to swap and share ideas. These coaches know each other from many years before TCU and Boise and they are pretty firmiliar with each others offenses. The Broncos averaged 49 points over their final five games of the regular season, but those numbers came against teams with a combined record of 20-38 this season. TCU and the nation?s No. 1 run defense should be able to keep Boise State?s great ground game in check. Ian Johnson not having a great season considering the expectations and young running backs have been looked at to make up the slack. Boise is a young team especially with a freshman at QB, if the TCU defense can stop the Boise run attack or at least slow them down it will be up to Moore to be the player of the game. Good thing for Boise is the O-line is VERY good and Moore might have a ton of time to find receivers considering TCU has a wide line and rarely rushes a lot of players. Defensively, Boise State led the WAC, and was 16th in the nation. Do not expect a ton of points tonight but I do like TCU considering who they have faced, they have a little more experience at QB and a better defence. Should be a great game and if TCU avoids the issues turning over the ball and committing dumb penalties they can move the chains. I think Boise can move the chains and they are not making the same penalty mistakes TCU is but all this time off might get them in that department. The smurf turf is not going to help Boise in SD but playing off it won't be a problem either. I look at the TCU defense and see games against some good teams and expect this horn forged unit to be a big factor. This should be a battle but I think TCU can hold off the dogs enough to get this done.

TCU/Boise OVER (46)
OK I just said points will be at a premium so why take the over? Thats simple, both teams can score a lot of points. Boise 39 per game and TCU 35 per game. Both teams have great offensive production in the yards per game catagory. And this could easily be a case of so much focus on defense means extra preperation on offense. I understand each team has a good scoring defense as well, Boise 12 ppg and TCU 10 ppg. But I still have to think this game comes down to each coach pulling out some things to get ahead and that can lead to big plays or big mistakes. I do not think this goes to the 45- 41 level but I think 21-28 can happen here without a struggle. Against good offenses Boise have given up points, Oregon and Nevada, the bad thing is they faced almost no offense talent all season. TCU will be a struggle for them and like Oregon it will rely on the offense coming back not the defense stopping them all game.

Cheers
Irish
 
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Irish

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2-6:mad:

Time to double this down .....

Hawaii (ML) over ND
RE-HIT Steaming BIG PLAY!!!!
Time for the irsih to come in thinking they roll and Hawaii comes out looking for a win against a big name to cap a season of disappointment. I hope they had a lot of activities today so Charlie is thinking about the hula pig buffet and not his play calling.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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COLD STREAK

COLD STREAK

2-7

Normally you are given a last meal, perhaps a blind fold and cig before outcomes like mine so far. Hawaii hurt bad... leave it to Charlie to play their best in this game. Beat up on the bad teams charlie cause the good teams are beating up on you.

Tonight since I am tearing up the board I am trying something different. I was going to start fading my leans but I am NO... Shinanigans.... so I will start

C.Mich/ FAU UNDER (69)
I just do not think FAU will be pointing up the points even though they have been playing better of late. I can see C.Mich rebounding from an embarassing loss to EMU but I think this total is a wee bit large. If CMU and FAU are in a shoot out CMU is looking at 30 PF and 30 PA, while FAU is 25PF and 29PA. I can see this flirting with 60.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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La Tech (0) over N.Ill
no time for much of a write up but I like the run defense against N.Ill offense and I would think the dogs want this game something fierce. I do not think this game is a point fest but I could see it being a back and fourth game. In the end I think the La Tech defense will be enough to stop the huskies enough to get on top of them.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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NC State (+7) over Rutgers
There is no team hotter than rutgers right now but NC State comes pretty close. The wolfpack had a four game win streak to close out the season against some pretty good ACC teams in Wake, UNC, Duke and Miami. Now they are in no way the best teams but they are good enough to show NC state is a different team than how they started. A huge key in this turn around in the play of freshman Russell Wilson. This is the type of player O'Brien needs at the helm to make his teams move the chains. Since he has been playing better of late I like his confidence and ability going into this contest. HOWEVER, Teel threw for 20 TDs in the Scarlet Knights' six-game winning streak and just three scores in their five losses. Now I have been all over Teel this season for lack of productivity when it comes to passing and not turning the ball over. Of late he has been a different QB. The defense has been playing like they are on fire. This has taken the pressure of the offense. This abiltiy to let Teel be risky has been a hiuge reason why Rutgers has been putting up big numbers lately. Still O'Brien has to get his team ready defensively. Considering his bowl record I think he will know how to get his boys involved in this game. Getting the defense to play well enough against Teel, Britt and Underwood while his offense keeps the chains moving and getting points when they are in the redzone. Now I think Rutgers wins the game because I think they have the better talent at this time, I think seven is far to wide, unless NC state gets scared and is turning the ball over a ton. Still this should be a good game and I like that both teams are playing well, the chalk and a good coaching staff.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Mizzou (-12.5) over N'Western
Alot being made about the Tigers not having anything to play for but the seniors leaders on tht time might have something to say about that. N'Western is without Sutton (or their entire offense). Now the spread should not be any different than Mizzou has seen all season so they should not be taken by surprise. I am not sure of one player that can stay with Macklin in coverage so he should be able to have a huge game. The best players for N'Western are on the defensive front so quick hitters should mean big yardage. The Mizzou defense is not impressive but I do not think they will be called on to stop N'Western as much as Mizzou will out run the wildcats on offense. This looks like a three TD win for Mizzou if they are playing for the win. I am interested to see if Mizzou can match up with the speed. If Wisky is any indication of Big - 10 speed then their are a lot of teams that may be in trouble later this bowl season. Still I think Daniels being a big leader and trying to get one shining moment on this dreadful season gets enough from his teammates to make N'Westerns run option spread suffer and they get behind early and are forced to throw and they cannot sustain drives. One hint for the Mizzou coaching staff..... THROW DEEP OFTEN, see the ohio state game film and you will see a gaping hole in the secondary, the safties are slow and play poor position. Throw in play action and they are looking in the backfield so deep is something the tigers have to try tonight.

Cheers
Irish
 
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