nfl conference plays & info....

[AR182]

although i am leaning to the over in the az / philly game, i haven't decided on anything yet...but thought that this info might be helpful...

NFL Conference Game Trends 2009

*Since 1970, home teams are 50-26 in conference championship games.

*Since 1983 home dogs are 1-2-1 ATS in the Conference Finals.

*When the home team has eight days of rest versus the visiting squad who has seven days, the home club is a slumbering 9-14-1 ATS (Arz had 8 days rest).

*And teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs the week before (Eagles over the Giants, 23-11), are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS the following week.

*Favorites are 21-9 straight up in NFL championship games and 17-15 against the spread the last 15 years.

*The total is 18-14 "over" the past 15 years.

*There have been more blowouts by the underdog than the favorite (examples, giants in 2001 41-0 over minnesota, TB in 2003 over Philly 27-10, and so on).

*Favorites from 1993-1997 went 8-2 ATS in NFL Championship Games

*Dogs from 2003-2007 went 7-5 ATS in NFL championship games, before the favorites went 2-0 ATS last January (Ranger).

*Dogs are 12-6 ATS the last nine years in the NFL title games.

*NFC Dogs are 7-3 ATS the Last 10 years.

*AFC Dogs are 6-4 ATS Last 10 years.

*Philadelphia's trouncing of the Falcons in 2005, 27-10, ended a six-year (1999-2004) run by underdogs (Ranger)covering in the NFC championship tilt.

TEAM TRENDS
ARZ
*When Arizona has scored 30 or more points, the team has gone 8-1 SU and ATS in both postseason and regular season play.

*ARI was 9-7 ATS during the regular season

*ARI is 3-1 ATS L4 playoff games

*ARI is 5-11 ATS L16 games vs. NFC East

*ARI is 7-2 ATS L9 Jan. games

*ARI is 11-22 ATS L33 games after two or more consecutive wins

*ARI is 10-1 to the OVER L11 home games

*ARI is 6-2 to the OVER L8 home games vs. PHI.
EAGLES
*The Eagles are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings versus Arizona, while the ?over? has been money at 7-3 in the last 10 clashes.

*PHI was 10-6 ATS during the regular season

*PHI is 11-5 ATS L16 playoff games

*PHI is 6-0 ATS L6 playoff road games

*PHI is 7-2 ATS L9 games vs. AZ

*PHI is 17-3 ATS L20 games off a division game

*PHI is 4-2 to the UNDER L6 games

*PHI is 6-1 to the UNDER L7 road games

STEELERS

*PIT was 9-7 ATS during the regular season

*PIT is 7-4 ATS L11 playoff games

*PIT is 14-7 ATS L21 home games vs. BAL

*PIT is 5-2 ATS L7 games against a team with a winning record

*PIT is 1-4 ATS L5 games in AFC Conference Championship games

*PIT is 3-1 to the UNDER L4 home games

*PIT is 7-1 to the OVER L8 home games vs. BAL

RAVENS
*BAL was 13-3 ATS during the regular season

*BAL is 7-3 ATS L10 playoff games

*BAL is 4-1 ATS L5 playoff road games

*BAL is 7-3 ATS L10 games as an underdog

*BAL is 5-1 ATS L6 games vs. AFC North

*BAL is 5-1 to the UNDER L6 games

*BAL is 4-1 to the OVER L5 games vs. PIT

 

[Tdog72]

BOL Ari and thanks for all your plays and opinions this NFL Season buddy!!! Cant wait already for next season, plan on doing plenty of damage with you boys next season. I didnt come in here until near the end of this season.
I am actually on the other side (I think) this weekend on the philly game...I like the Under....Philly stinks...especially when they are favoured
BOL to u alll

 

[smurphy]

*And teams that knock off the defending Super Bowl Champs the week before (Eagles over the Giants, 23-11), are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS the following week.

:00hour

 

[tulah]

Awesome insight as alway's

Thanks AR182

 

[MrChristo]

:mj06:

Top stuff as always AR...

...leaning towards that over myself as an only play, but not entirely happy Spach is missing.

Still, any team av'ing over 30 ppg at home needs looking at a igh scorer.

Good Luck, mate. :toast:

 

[T OFF]

APPRECIATE YA AR!

APPRECIATE YA AR!

Philadelphia:
11-1 ATS off division game
6-0 ATS off road division win

Arizona:
7-0 Over off SU dog win
10-0 Over off an Under



Baltimore:
8-2 ATS in road games
9-0 ATS off win by 3pts or less

Pittsburgh:
0-9 ATS after scoring 35+ points
15-5 Over vs. AFC

STUMMBLED ACROSS THESE JUST ADDING BUD

:SIB

 

[AR182]

thanks guys.....no problem t off....


so far i am 1-3 in the playoffs....there really isn't anything that i like this weekend.....but i do want to make at least 1 play for sunday & it will be on the over in the phil / cards game....but there is a disclaimer with this play...i never hit overs in the pros......i am also going to watch the lines to see if the total moves in my direction.....so i will not post a number with this play...

over phil / cards....

i am not a believer....i don't believe that all of a sudden arizona woke up in the playoffs & decided to start playing defense.....their first playoff game this year was against a rookie qb & a rookie coach playing / coaching in their very first playoff game on the road....& atlanta still scored 24 points.....& last week they gave up 13 points against a very flat & poorly prepared carolina team who thought that because they were a 10 point favorite, they would be able to walk right through the arizona team......so i think arizona had the benefit, in the playoffs of who they played rather than them all of a sudden becoming a defensive force....looking at the numbers during the season...the cards defense gave up 25.7 ppg during the year....while the eagles scored an average of 25.8 ppg on offense...

on the other side of the ball, we all know that philly is playing very good defensive football, but my question is how good is phil's defense ? so far in the playoffs, the eagles gave up 14 points to a team with a terrible qb (minn) & 11 points (giants) to a team that didn't have any real threat at wide receiver....with boldin coming back this week for arizona, the cards will be able to go 3 wide with boldin, fitzgerald & breaston (sp ?) & throw the ball down the field & put pressure on the eagles defensive backfield, something no other team did this year......if you look at who they played this year, the eagle defense hasn't really been challenged much.....they gave up 41 points at dallas in their first meeting, they gave up 36 points to the giants in their first meeting & 36 points at balt....but if you look at phil's schedule they haven't played anybody who had the wide receivers that arizona has or the polished qb that the cards have.....other than the game where they beat dallas 44-6 ( the cowboys had a fractured team then) & the games that i listed any team that phil played had some kind of offensive deficiency either at qb or wide receiver, or some place else....for the regular season phil gave up 19.7 ppg on the road....

during the year, the arizona offense played 6 teams with a top 10 defenses...3 at home (giants (66 total points), minn (49 total points), & dallas (54 total points) & 3 on the road ( the pats (54 points), phil (68 points), & wash (41 points).).....in the 3 games on the road, arizona scored an average of 14 ppg...but against the 3 top 10 teams at home arizona scored an average of 24 ppg....& for the year, arizona averages a little over 30 ppg at home.....

phil. has numerous trends favoring the under...while arizona has numerous trends favoring the over.....but imo the most powerful trends are these....

arizona is 10-0 over off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was arizona 26.6, opponent 29.7.....

arizona is 7-0 over off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons......the average score was arizona 25.4, opponent 29.4......

philadelphia is 8-1 over after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was phil. 26.6, opponent 25.6.....

with neither one much of a running team, & with a fast track & playing indoors, i think the total amount scored by these 2 teams will reach the 50's.......

good luck

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

good luck AR, showing great stuff as usual....


vicc

 

[djv]

AR when looking at trends I always check to see how long coaching staff has been there. It just seems to me if you have teams that have not had changes at top over long period of time you can trust data better. I just was wondering if others agree.

 

[AR182]

as i said before, i really don't like anything in the football games & although i have a lean to the over in the az / phil it is not strong enough for me to place a wager on....so i decided to go for a middle just to have some kind of interest in that game....this is what i played...

3*over 45 (150)
3*under 49(150)

so i'm risking $150 to possibly winning $600


good luck

 

[AR182]

AR when looking at trends I always check to see how long coaching staff has been there. It just seems to me if you have teams that have not had changes at top over long period of time you can trust data better. I just was wondering if others agree.

hey dave...

although i listed a cards trend that partially came under the previous coach, i try to show trends that apply to the team under their present coach...because i think that is pertinent...

good luck