Some excellent thoughts on this one already out there by other MJ'ers, but thought I'd add a bunch.
I really believe OU could get a real scare in this one. 15 seeds rarely do damage, but taking a look at the Bears schedule/results, I'm of the opinion that this is not your run-of-the-mill 15 seed. This team has tested some quality foes on the road, even occasionally coming out on top (ie. Maryland). The few times they got slapped around by the bigger conference foes, it was due to very poor FG shooting nights. I think they were a combined 5-29 with the three-ball (atypical) in the three largest deficit out of conference losses (St. Marys, Utah, and Wisconsin-Green Bay). Admittedly, their season FG average is not great, but it looks like their guards were heating up during their conference tourney run, so hopefully that rolls into tonight. Additionally, I expect Morgan State to be scrappy, ready, and intrepid in their quest to slay Goliath tonight. They are an experience-laden ball club who have already proven to themselves and others that they can play with the big boys at some tough venues. Team confidence and belief is paramount in backing a big underdog in the early rounds of the tourney and I expect Morgan State to be packing plenty of both.
The last time a 15 seed beat a 2 seed was in 2001. There are numerous parallels between that game and this one. Here are just a few I was able to uncover, but simply too many for me to ignore. 1) If you remember that major upset was by Hampton (MEAC league, just like Morgan State) over Iowa State (Big 12, just like Oklahoma). 2) Hampton was an experienced basketball team in 2001, much like this year's Morgan State club. They, too, weren't afraid to travel and play some bigger names out of conference and actually racked up some decent wins. Then they took care of business during the regular season and won their tournament to get in the dance. The Bears have also achieved these same things and seem to be bringing many of the same qualities into tonight's game. 3) Hampton's Pomeroy Rating back in 2001 was 132 and Iowa State was at 24. This year, Morgan State's Pomeroy Rating sits at 142 and Oklahoma is at 18. Almost equivalent in their difference. 4) In 2001, Iowa State was one of the top teams in the Big 12 that year, but lost two of their last four to finish the regular season, including a first game exit in the Big 12 tourney after earning a bye. Fast forward to this year...OU was definitely one of the best in the Big 12 during the regular season, but they faltered down the stretch losing 4 of their last 6, including a first game exit in the Big 12 tourney after earning a bye.
Hmmm...at this point, surely we all can agree that this is a "freaky" similar set-up leading into this game! But the big question is, does it really mean anything eight years later? Are the stars really aligned for the 5th upset in NCAA history by a #15? :scared I don't know, but it's sure fun to think about and I'm a sucker for this stuff during March Madness!
Fact: Blake Griffin is an absolute stud and could dominate this game with ease as a one-man show. If that is the case, I'll be wrong and look stupid. But from what I've seen, Oklahoma (unbelievably) sometimes struggles to get him enough touches. Front him inside and OU has a tendency to be lulled into a perimeter-based offensive game. Some talking heads in the media like to say that OU is more than just Blake Griffin. Sure, there are complementary players on every team, but the reality is that OU's guards and forwards are of good to average (not great) D1 talent. Their guard play, especially, has been their achilles heal down the stretch. As another MJ'er (gray beard) stated in an earlier post (and I wholeheartedly agree with)...it is not too far of a reach to say Morgan State could be as good or better at 4 of 5 positions on the floor tonight. Also, after a few losses late in the season there were rumblings of some team chemistry problems for OU (Patillo suspension, etc.). Perhaps these were unfounded, but something is certainly different about this Oklahoma team that was so dominant early on.
Bottomline: this big underdog has alot going for it, including some eery-looking historical parallels. OU may come out fired up to get back on track, and blow the Bears doors off, but I'm more than willing to plunk down a large wager that won't happen. Morgan State hangs tough here and may even pull off a HUGE shocker. I also played a small taste on the +1100 ML. Feel free to call me crazy...it won't sway me. Especially, not after spending so much time working up this game and typing this damn post. :mj07:
Here's hoping for inspired play and hot shooting from the Bears of Morgan State, tonight. Make yourselves and your University a household name, boys! (If American U. doesn't beat you to it as a 14 seed leading at half? Gotta love this time of year, HAHA).
Good Luck to All,
-JC
I really believe OU could get a real scare in this one. 15 seeds rarely do damage, but taking a look at the Bears schedule/results, I'm of the opinion that this is not your run-of-the-mill 15 seed. This team has tested some quality foes on the road, even occasionally coming out on top (ie. Maryland). The few times they got slapped around by the bigger conference foes, it was due to very poor FG shooting nights. I think they were a combined 5-29 with the three-ball (atypical) in the three largest deficit out of conference losses (St. Marys, Utah, and Wisconsin-Green Bay). Admittedly, their season FG average is not great, but it looks like their guards were heating up during their conference tourney run, so hopefully that rolls into tonight. Additionally, I expect Morgan State to be scrappy, ready, and intrepid in their quest to slay Goliath tonight. They are an experience-laden ball club who have already proven to themselves and others that they can play with the big boys at some tough venues. Team confidence and belief is paramount in backing a big underdog in the early rounds of the tourney and I expect Morgan State to be packing plenty of both.
The last time a 15 seed beat a 2 seed was in 2001. There are numerous parallels between that game and this one. Here are just a few I was able to uncover, but simply too many for me to ignore. 1) If you remember that major upset was by Hampton (MEAC league, just like Morgan State) over Iowa State (Big 12, just like Oklahoma). 2) Hampton was an experienced basketball team in 2001, much like this year's Morgan State club. They, too, weren't afraid to travel and play some bigger names out of conference and actually racked up some decent wins. Then they took care of business during the regular season and won their tournament to get in the dance. The Bears have also achieved these same things and seem to be bringing many of the same qualities into tonight's game. 3) Hampton's Pomeroy Rating back in 2001 was 132 and Iowa State was at 24. This year, Morgan State's Pomeroy Rating sits at 142 and Oklahoma is at 18. Almost equivalent in their difference. 4) In 2001, Iowa State was one of the top teams in the Big 12 that year, but lost two of their last four to finish the regular season, including a first game exit in the Big 12 tourney after earning a bye. Fast forward to this year...OU was definitely one of the best in the Big 12 during the regular season, but they faltered down the stretch losing 4 of their last 6, including a first game exit in the Big 12 tourney after earning a bye.
Hmmm...at this point, surely we all can agree that this is a "freaky" similar set-up leading into this game! But the big question is, does it really mean anything eight years later? Are the stars really aligned for the 5th upset in NCAA history by a #15? :scared I don't know, but it's sure fun to think about and I'm a sucker for this stuff during March Madness!
Fact: Blake Griffin is an absolute stud and could dominate this game with ease as a one-man show. If that is the case, I'll be wrong and look stupid. But from what I've seen, Oklahoma (unbelievably) sometimes struggles to get him enough touches. Front him inside and OU has a tendency to be lulled into a perimeter-based offensive game. Some talking heads in the media like to say that OU is more than just Blake Griffin. Sure, there are complementary players on every team, but the reality is that OU's guards and forwards are of good to average (not great) D1 talent. Their guard play, especially, has been their achilles heal down the stretch. As another MJ'er (gray beard) stated in an earlier post (and I wholeheartedly agree with)...it is not too far of a reach to say Morgan State could be as good or better at 4 of 5 positions on the floor tonight. Also, after a few losses late in the season there were rumblings of some team chemistry problems for OU (Patillo suspension, etc.). Perhaps these were unfounded, but something is certainly different about this Oklahoma team that was so dominant early on.
Bottomline: this big underdog has alot going for it, including some eery-looking historical parallels. OU may come out fired up to get back on track, and blow the Bears doors off, but I'm more than willing to plunk down a large wager that won't happen. Morgan State hangs tough here and may even pull off a HUGE shocker. I also played a small taste on the +1100 ML. Feel free to call me crazy...it won't sway me. Especially, not after spending so much time working up this game and typing this damn post. :mj07:
Here's hoping for inspired play and hot shooting from the Bears of Morgan State, tonight. Make yourselves and your University a household name, boys! (If American U. doesn't beat you to it as a 14 seed leading at half? Gotta love this time of year, HAHA).
Good Luck to All,
-JC
