Home Team Totals System - Tues Sept 23

[LordofBalls]

hi guys...

no action monday... was watch day... so here we go!

PRIMARY SYSTEM - TUES PLAYS
*Phils gm OVER... Bet #1
*Mets gm UNDER... Bet #1
*RSox gm OVER... #1
*StL gm OVER... #1
*Tigers gm OVER... #1
*Sea gm OVER... #1

:director: "Watch Day" Tuesday for these teams...
-Milw
-Hou
-Twins
-SF


Primary System 225-3 ytd... 11 pending above
Secondary System 140-2.... done for season!!


Updated Record inc. gms played Sept 21st...
Primary System -- Bet Breakdown
Bet #1 == 127 wins
#2 == 55 wins
#3 == 27 wins
#4 == 8 wins
#5 == 7 wins
#6 == 1 win 9/14
3 losses... 2 of which won the very next home opportunity, the other tied and then won...

Secondary System - Bet Breakdown (since All-Star break)
Bet #1 == 28 wins
#2 == 14 wins
#3 == 16 wins
#4 == 2 win
#5 == 4 wins
2 Losses since labor day... ouch!


Best of Luck to USALL!!!! :00hour :SIB


Find something luckier and rub it!! :toast:

 

[Missy]

GL
Going to follow along:00hour

 

[LordofBalls]

Missy...

I got a late start this morning, and have some errands to run...
but Im going to ck the pitchers, and see what other cappers have to say about any of these...

unusual for so many overs needed... but we'll see... :0corn

Best o' Luck to You and USALL!! :00hour

LoB
:SIB

 

[tmacisonfire]

hey LOB,
are you going to start posting up your system again when MLB comes back?
I really liked it last year and made me so good money I hope you bring it back

 

[Mr.]

I would guess the rough patch you hit at the start of September would be from the roster expansion.....too much inconsistency in lineups w/ 40 players :shrug:

 

[lpbc]

system

system

What was the actual system?

 

[McVegas]

LOB....are you ready for another season of baseball:toast:......

 

[McVegas]

I would guess the rough patch you hit at the start of September would be from the roster expansion.....too much inconsistency in lineups w/ 40 players :shrug:

I agree, this year I think I will shut down baseball on SEPT 1, and if I remember correctly, LOB did not start the over/under plays until the second week of the season (not 100% sure) LOB could you clarify....

 

[LordofBalls]

McVegas,

good to see you back.... hope you are healthy and doing well

I have been going thru stats for last 3 seasons team by team, and hit a snag when there was a tragic sudden death in my family

I plan to complete this research in the next 2 wks...

I am tracking individual teams for hm team totals and r/l system and for '06 thru '08

You can see the results of the home tm totals system from last year... and you can plug in various numbers to see which way the risk/reward can work out most favorably...

Using Stats from Last season....
I believe it may be most profitable to play for 2 units on bet 1, then to win 2 units on bet 2, then to win only 1 unit on bet 3, then stopping...
Obviously, avoiding the large losses on a bet #4, 5 and 6 is the goal...
there are alot of varieties available, but I think this way can lead to a substantial # of wins, w/o risking the HUGE amts....

What do you guys think?

Please try a few amts yourself and see what you think... I will be ckg back every few days when I can...
I'd like to hear what You think may work the best (just using last yrs stats, I will share the research of 3yr total system when finished!)...

LoB :SIB

 

[McVegas]

LOB sorry to hear of your loss, looking forward to another season of baseball......

 

[bogdog]

McVegas,

good to see you back.... hope you are healthy and doing well

I have been going thru stats for last 3 seasons team by team, and hit a snag when there was a tragic sudden death in my family

I plan to complete this research in the next 2 wks...

I am tracking individual teams for hm team totals and r/l system and for '06 thru '08

You can see the results of the home tm totals system from last year... and you can plug in various numbers to see which way the risk/reward can work out most favorably...

Using Stats from Last season....
I believe it may be most profitable to play for 2 units on bet 1, then to win 2 units on bet 2, then to win only 1 unit on bet 3, then stopping...
Obviously, avoiding the large losses on a bet #4, 5 and 6 is the goal...
there are alot of varieties available, but I think this way can lead to a substantial # of wins, w/o risking the HUGE amts....

What do you guys think?

Please try a few amts yourself and see what you think... I will be ckg back every few days when I can...
I'd like to hear what You think may work the best (just using last yrs stats, I will share the research of 3yr total system when finished!)...

LoB :SIB

LOB I tracked the data from 2007 and 2006 a few months back. It was not good. Game 4 -6 had too many losses. I changed jobs so I dont have the data at hand but I wanted to see if you saw the same trends?

I think last year we got lucky on D4-6

 

[tmacisonfire]

i think all you need is that one nice filter or two filters. like a starting pitcher ERA type thing.

 

[LordofBalls]

tmac....

I hav completed the AL for the last 3 yrs for totals and run lines... (my friend is doing the NL and not done yet)

I'm not going to make any blanket statements yet,
but...

2 things that appear VERY strong....

1) When a team has a loss on the home totals system (having all overs and no unders, or vice-versa for the entire homestand)
The NEXT homestand, bet what you needed the last time

and

2) A team that has a homestand w/o a run line victory... the next homestand... seems to hit 1st or 2nd gm each time... a potential "load-up" situation...

The Problem is....
Both of these situations would require waiting for a team to have a negative homestand and then betting them the next homestand, and would lead to only a few plays per season...

I will wait until all this data is compiled within the next week, and share the results... So don't go do anything crazy yet lol

I am very busy right now w/work, but will continue to ck in here, and let everyone know what I find....

Believe in Positive things!!

LoB :SIB

 

[tmacisonfire]

I CANT WAIT FOR THIS TO COME BACK!
Those sound really good. But why can't you just play last years system in addition to those?

 

[bogdog]

hi guys...

no action monday... was watch day... so here we go!

PRIMARY SYSTEM - TUES PLAYS
*Phils gm OVER... Bet #1
*Mets gm UNDER... Bet #1
*RSox gm OVER... #1
*StL gm OVER... #1
*Tigers gm OVER... #1
*Sea gm OVER... #1

:director: "Watch Day" Tuesday for these teams...
-Milw
-Hou
-Twins
-SF


Primary System 225-3 ytd... 11 pending above
Secondary System 140-2.... done for season!!


Updated Record inc. gms played Sept 21st...
Primary System -- Bet Breakdown
Bet #1 == 127 wins
#2 == 55 wins
#3 == 27 wins
#4 == 8 wins
#5 == 7 wins
#6 == 1 win 9/14
3 losses... 2 of which won the very next home opportunity, the other tied and then won...

Secondary System - Bet Breakdown (since All-Star break)
Bet #1 == 28 wins
#2 == 14 wins
#3 == 16 wins
#4 == 2 win
#5 == 4 wins
2 Losses since labor day... ouch!


Best of Luck to USALL!!!! :00hour :SIB


Find something luckier and rub it!! :toast:

LOB here is the 2007 data. As you can see 2007 was worse:


# of Chases W L % $ Win $ Lost $ Net Cumulative Winnings
Game 1 281 141 140 50% $ 705.00 $ (770.00) $ (65.00) $ (65.00)
Game 2 139 63 76 45% $ 661.50 $ (877.80) $ (216.30) $ (281.30)
Game 3 69 43 26 62% $ 948.15 $ (630.63) $ 317.52 $ 36.22
Game 4 34 18 16 53% $ 833.49 $ (814.97) $ 18.52 $ 54.74
Game 5 16 7 9 44% $ 680.68 $ (962.68) $ (282.00) $ (227.26)
Game 6 9 4 5 44% $ 816.82 $ (1,123.13) $ (306.31) $ (533.56)

As you can see Day 6 has 5 losses, the units were calculated with 5$ and -110 juice. At the end of the day its a loss of 533.56

 

[LordofBalls]

bogdog,

First... I appreciate your efforts in this matter.
alot of people just want to let others do the research, and I know how much 'fun' it is lol...

Second....
One thing that is not factored into these "raw stats" is that there were times - based on weather, wind, or pitchers - that I did not play full amt or passed entirely on plays
and other times I played something for more than normal amt when it lined up with someone or some stats/factors that I liked in its favor and made extra $$$
I always said, never play anything blindly...

Thirdly...
another item we are not yet factoring in is the "Secondary System", particularly when a team is on a 9 gm homestand, has already hit once, and we play em to hit again...
Fourth...
after I finish all this, I will have tm by tm breakdown, and will hope to see that maybe some teams are indeed worse or better than others.... maybe something will stick out, but who knows?

right now Im working too much to get a chance to go in-depth w/the info being compiled...
but will hopefully get at it better next week!

talk again sooooooon...

LoB :SIB

 

[bogdog]

sounds good LOB, look forward to seeing what you develop.

 

[jordan23]

Lord

Just wondering if you have decided how you will be playing this this year??? Looking forward to this system. Thanks