Uconn/MSU-Is there a home court advantage?

[edludes]

That to me is the key question in analysis of this game,and I'll explain why:The spartans have almost the same differential between their offensive output and defensive points allowed at home as they have had for the first four games of this tournament,but there is one huge difference as well.The home games have them and their opponents scoring ten points less a game.They play slower at home,they score slower,the opponent scores slower.I have this system for forecesting final scores that uses four games.Once we get four games into the tourney,ie this weekend,it gets fairly reliable.Forecasting Uconn/Msu using the four games tourney to date it comes out with uconn covering and very close to the opening total.However,using the MSU homecourt numbers from their last four home games instead of the four tourney games and they were performing the same in relation to the margin between their offense and the other team,but there is much less scoring by both sides,it lowered the forecast to uconn winning by three,not covering and it going under by 10 points.Is there a homecourt advantage in this game even though it isn't a home court.Has anyone read any izzo quotes about his preferred pace for this game?He has to be thinking slooow or he's crazy.

 

[gjn23]

izzo's getting his resume ready for the arizona job!



a guy can dream right!

homecourt....i guess if it's the # of people in the stands but not the same gym, not the same rims, in a 72k seat dome with the court in the middle of the field and fans far from the court

sounds pretty neutral to me........now if they were playing at the palace in auburn hills, more of a home court adv. to msu

like the team that can get the ball inside and in this game it's uconn......wait, but i like nova in game two...shit, im gonna just flip a coin both games.

 

[J^3]

They played against Carolina at Ford earlier this season. I've read at a few places that the shooters generally don't like playing on a field like this because it isn't nearly as enclosed as a regular gym. You'd have to think MSU will try to slow this game down, I'm thinking they can cover as long as Suton is hitting but if not Thabeat will be able to sag back a bit more allowing UConn to coast.

 

[edludes]

Hope you get your coach.It sounds neutral to me too,don't think I can see how msu covers in this game without unusually poor shooting from uconn and deadeye lightsout stuff fromm msu,but I still like playing the team with a non cover vs the undefeated one vs the spread,that would be 3-1 ats msu vs 4-0 ats conn.

 

[edludes]

If they have thabeet on suton they're playing into MSU's hands there.He'll be on the three point circle and in foul trouble all day because he's not used to being out there.Theres gotta be some near the basket guy for him to guard.

 

[Chadman]

Considering the cost of these tickets, do these final four locations really have all that many local folks? What kind of ticket setup do they have per school, that kind of thing? Especially in Michigan these days, I think economics might play a part in it not being too lopsided a home court advantage, but I also think the area is so depressed that the area around the gym, the workers, and some locals will be really pumped up for the home state. I could see the non-UConn folks getting behind them if it's close late, though - I'm sure NC and Villanova would probably rather play them than UConn in the final. Maybe a little something to it, but I can't think it would be too much.

 

[edludes]

You're right,you've got to send away for those tickets a year in advance and then get drawn out of a lottery to get 'em.Not a lot of those being scalped,but I'm only guessing.Maybe the familiar,non road setting and maybe the kids get more Psyched Up at home,sorry to those who say you shouldn't need that as a motivation,sometimes people play out of their minds,being in your home state might be enough reason.I'm starting out playing the under,buying a point,under136,19-12 vs the number post season to date..The football arena vs gym setting will take some gettingused to I'm hoping,and the home team should be trying for a snails pace,walk it up game,or at least a slower paced one.If they try to beat the Beet up the court I'm cooked.Uconn has had only one under this tourney so far,MSU is 2-2 vs the total.If they go under the first h total of 62- by a good bit I may look to middle by playing the 2 half over,the bought point helps with that too.Gl to all handicappers.

 

[edludes]

Added MSU+5-,-130.After all the seasons drawing to a close,may as well play the 3-1 ats to play better then the the 4-0 ats team,the 4-0 with three out of four overs is more likely in my mind to miss a few they normally make vs a team that prides itself on its d,playing in their home state.We'll see soon. gl

 

[Old School]

They played against Carolina at Ford earlier this season. I've read at a few places that the shooters generally don't like playing on a field like this because it isn't nearly as enclosed as a regular gym. You'd have to think MSU will try to slow this game down, I'm thinking they can cover as long as Suton is hitting but if not Thabeat will be able to sag back a bit more allowing UConn to coast.

I can't imagine any outside shooter liking this backdrop..

 

[Old School]

 

[Theboundbook]

Added MSU+5-,-130.After all the seasons drawing to a close,may as well play the 3-1 ats to play better then the the 4-0 ats team,the 4-0 with three out of four overs is more likely in my mind to miss a few they normally make vs a team that prides itself on its d,playing in their home state.We'll see soon. gl

Well done. Easy play.... Wire to wire....