Pick: Villa-NC 161' under

Theboundbook

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win.

Record: 23-13

The 2h was what I expected at the start - Villa only had about 11 points at the 8m mark of 2h.

Did you notice how reluctant the refs were to call defensive fouls against NC? Do you know why that is? Hint: think politics.

I would be EXTREMELY reluctant to bet against NC in the final. BUT, I would not be suprised to see the outcome that would screw the maximum number of people, and that will probably be NC winning but not covering. That's the way to bet more often than not in national-focus games, the Super Bowl this year being the perfect example.

Anyway, congrats to under bettors, and tough loss for you overs. It really would have been smarter to wait til halftime on this one, I love doing that on high-70s 1h games. So many things have to go right to cover a number in the mid-80s it's not even funny.

NICE CALL... And yes, you call it politics.... I call it VEGAS insurance.... Get 80% + and a 5 pt move or so, and those 80%ers lose 80%+ of the time in situations like this...
 

Nelson

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NICE CALL... And yes, you call it politics.... I call it VEGAS insurance.... Get 80% + and a 5 pt move or so, and those 80%ers lose 80%+ of the time in situations like this...

Yeah normally it is Vegas - but here we had the additional factor of Obama picking NC to win it all. The refs knew that and it affected their whistles. Not saying that was the difference but it was a definite contributing factor.
 

Theboundbook

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Yeah normally it is Vegas - but here we had the additional factor of Obama picking NC to win it all. The refs knew that and it affected their whistles. Not saying that was the difference but it was a definite contributing factor.

My goodness. Our socialistic government got into sports in 3 months....

The Zion Gov is numbing us..... Glad you at least noticed.....
 

Nelson

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My goodness. Our socialistic government got into sports in 3 months....

The Zion Gov is numbing us..... Glad you at least noticed.....

I'm not saying the government pressured the officials but that the refs' awareness of Obama's picks subtly influenced their calls. I saw a number of fifty-fifty swipes by NC that in many games would have been called fouls. I did not see similar leniency on the other side, the reffing was a bit stricter. When you have a team as good as NC on both sides of the ball, a very little help can go a long way. I expect the same thing the finals. NC will not win because of reffing, but it will not lose because of it either, and that is an advantage. I could be wrong of course. A rock-solid 40% of the time I am. :)
 

Nelson

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It should also be noted that the home crowd was a huge factor in MichSt's win today, and we'll see that again in the finals. Dueling influences...
 

Nelson

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I agree. MICH ST ML or NC giving pts.... and over in the 1st H.... Those are my LEANS before any line movement...

Hmm... well I respect your opinion and enjoy reading your threads. My own initial suspicion is NC wins but doesnt cover. Will revise that based on what I see from ESPN and the public. I've learned over the years that any high-profile game, and this is second only to Super Bowl, should be treated with utmost caution. The right thing to do is usually go against the money, and always ask oneself, which outcome would screw the maximum number of bettors? Doesn't always work out that way, and sometimes I do go with the public favorite, but more often than not what's being promoted by ESPN and bet on by the crowd ends up losing. The one thing I'm most certain about right now is that NC will win on the moneyline. The only thing even keeping this game close is the home-crowd advantage MichSt will have. Any other circumstances they can't come close to scoring with NC.
 

THE KOD

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I'm not saying the government pressured the officials but that the refs' awareness of Obama's picks subtly influenced their calls.
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archie

man you are off into space with that line of thinking
 

THE KOD

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It should also be noted that the home crowd was a huge factor in MichSt's win today, and we'll see that again in the finals. Dueling influences...

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MSU lost at Ford Field to NC by about 30 points

back in Nov 2009

Could be a replay :shrug:
 

Nelson

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...............................................................

MSU lost at Ford Field to NC by about 30 points

back in Nov 2009

Could be a replay :shrug:

I just don't see how MichS can score with NC. But, they showed great energy from the start on Saturday. That combined with the crowd might create enough frenzy to keep it close. Based on the officiating I saw Saturday, which was very tolerant of NC swiping and swatting inside, I think it's extremely like NC outscores MichS.
 
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