Preliminary Report on 3 yrs Research of Home Team Totals System

[LordofBalls]

Hi guys,

its friday afternoon.... finally compiled some stats for past 3 seasons (2006-2008)...
sorry its taking so long, but with a family heartbreak and then working late hrs its been pretty busy...
and of course don't forget procrastinating!!

It was a general consensus that the flaw with the Totals System last year was having to risk the amts necessary to win the full amt on bets 5 and 6 in particular. Personally, it got pretty nerve-wracking and wallet-threatening for me when I had 3 series in the same week get stretched out to bets 4, 5 or 6.
Remember...
I always said to NEVER bet blindly, factor in weather, pitchers, other cappers, etc.

I did seem to zig and zag fairly well last season... had a healthy profit until Labor Day...but when you simply look at the following statistics, they won't be that impressive.
I did get hurt pretty badly around Labor Day last season violin: ), and will be very careful to protect profits late in the season!!
I hope the profits cooperate :spotting:

FYI, It IS POSSIBLE to bet much smaller amts for your 'unit', and play the system out further....
YOU have to do your own math, and decide what YOUR amounts should be... and DON"T Bet blindly!

Also, the stat source I used did not specify which day of the week these homestands began on.
Last year I used the "Secondary System" for long homestands starting on Thursday or Friday.
I won't use that term any longer...

For these stats, I looked at all homestands of 6 gms or longer ONLY (usually 9-11 per team per season)....

So with that in mind...

Home Team Totals System asks....
"if 1st game of a long homestand results in the game staying "Under" the total, then start 1st bet w/game #2 (beting OVER) and continue until an "Over" hits... or vice versa..."
Results
Bet #1 -- 452 wins
Bet #2 -- 229 wins
Bet #3 -- 108 wins
Bet #4 -- 50 wins
Bet #5 -- 22 wins
Bet #6 -- 17 wins
Lost 12 times

So what does this translate into when placing a wager to win a unit (say $100)?

Using -110 juice as an example...
if you stop after the first 2 bets...
you'd be down about $870 after 3 yrs...

if you stop after the 3rd bet...
you'd be up about $1200 after 3 yrs

if you took it out to the 4th bet...
you'd be down about $2800 after 3 yrs

Frankly, none of those sound that appealing for 3 yrs efforts...
However....... I came across some other potential wagering situations which seem to have a better occurrence rate!

The first I'll call the "RE-START SYSTEM" for now anyway...
When a team gets a victory in the home totals system, if there are still 6 games or more remaining in that homestand, then 're-start' em to hit the opposite way from what they just did. If they just won with an 'Over'... then bet em to go 'Under' the next day...
Bet #1 = 181 wins
Bet #2 = 83 wins
Bet #3 = 43 wins
Bet #4 = 16 wins
Bet #5 = 5 wins
Bet #6 = 4 wins'
Loss = 2 times

Playing to win a unit ($100), doing the math shows....
Stopping after 3 bets...
Wins $9,910 over 3yr period

Stopping after 4 bets....
Wins $13,600 over the 3yr period

Drawbacks are....
-only about 100 bets per season...
-not every long homestand will have this opportunity, if team takes too long to get their initial win in the totals system...

Other situations which look like good possiblities but I need to finish reviewing more stats...
** when team has loss on totals system, play them on the next homestand the way you needed them to go....
** when team fails to cover the runline during a homestand, play them on the next homestand to cover the runline...

I am also reviewing:
** runline system (using same long homestand situations)...
**reverse runline systems
**5-gm homestands for totals and runlines...
** other "totals" situational plays....

Also studying my Fantasy Baseball Team draft picks for tomorrow! woooohooooo!!

Bit I hope to get back w/some more clarity in the near future!!!

til then my friends... think positive! :00hour

LoB:SIB

 

[Mr. Poon]

Lord - good info man. Can you let me know if it is cool to get your email from Jack or IE? I have a MLB system I've followed somewhat over the last couple of seasons (though it applies to sides), but I think getting your info to cross reference might be helpful.

 

[McVegas]

Nice work LOB...are you going to start up right away or wait until the second week of the season (thought that last year you waited until the second week)...anyway good luck...I'll post the R/L record every week (like last year)....I'll be laying low the first week or so, got my ass kicked last year during the first two weeks. Good luck to all.

 

[tmacisonfire]

great work lob! you make me even more excited for baseball season!
but one question does anyone know were godzilla went?

 

[Theboundbook]

Nice work LOB...are you going to start up right away or wait until the second week of the season (thought that last year you waited until the second week)...anyway good luck...I'll post the R/L record every week (like last year)....I'll be laying low the first week or so, got my ass kicked last year during the first two weeks. Good luck to all.

Last year I made a killing.. Especially betting against the HUGE FAVORITE DETROIT LAST YEAR>> I have found that betting dogs in 1st week or two blindly if you have too will make you money.... Of course, Im not blind so I seem to make a little more.... Good luck this year!

 

[LordofBalls]

hi guys, thanks for the feedback...

Mr. Poon,
any fan of Chevy Chase movies is alright w/me, feel free to email me!
Lets find something that can make us $$$

McVegas,
I will probably start small the 1st week... playing the totals system, and "re-start" totals system.
I am contemplating how to work the runline system, and I will probly take several more days to pull out stats I'd like to see before I risk much.

Boundbook,
I am staying away from laying juice on home teams this season!!
I like playing the big dogs esp early ('cuz some teams are always overrated at home due to public perception).
or... wait until the home team has failed to cover the runline for 3 or 4 games, then start playing them to hit it... not sure yet so don't quote me!!

FYI, I've been going back thru the "RE-START" system and figuring how it would do if u re-started when there were only 5 gms remaining on the homestand, it's looking like it mayyyy be worthwhile, letcha know soon!
I have NOT finished compiling... will report back on Sunday (hopefully)!

Also,
another area a friend and I were looking at.... playing the visitor and visitor -1.5 runline... there are a few teams that smoked it for huuuuge profits!! but then there's a few others that bring the profit margin wayyyyyy down... maybe I can weed out the weinies!

I guess what I'm sayin is... reading statistics and looking for trends or patterns can be mind boggling lol... and it doesn't always bear fruit.
I know it may take me awhile, but I will try to get caught up and let u guys see what I've found...

bye for now,

LoB :SIB

 

[StevieD]

Great stuff Lord.

 

[mercury]

Lord,
Greatly appreciate all the work you do, especially under difficult situations. I know last year was a good learning experience, and your efforts to improve on them is commendable.Even if some situations only yield about 100 plays a season they would would be well worth it if combined with some of the other situations.
Always enjoy reading your posts.
best of luck this season.
Will be following McVegas' posts also.

 

[axp59]

Good stuff, always looking for new angles and I'm going to be sure to check out your threads this season. BOL sir.

 

[tmacisonfire]

so when is this system kicking in?
and do you have godzilla 1s' email just wondering becasue you were a close follower of his last year

 

[nervousTic]

LOB can you post the Wins and Losses by day for both Home Team Totals and Restart?

Thanks.