Report on 3 yr Research for Totals in MLB

LordofBalls

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Aug 31, 2006
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Hi guys, not going to be around to explain alot of the stats, most of u know what they mean, if u don't... think about it a bit...

Results for Totals during 2006-2008 seasons

Home Team Totals System
Bet 1 = 452 wins (of 890 chances = 51%) AL 209/411
Bet 2 = 229 wins (of 439 chances = 52%) AL 105/202
Bet 3 = 108 wins (of 210 chances = 51%) AL 53/97
Bet 4 = 50 wins (of 102 chances = 49%) AL 23/44
Bet 5 = 22 wins (of 52 chances = 42%) AL 8/21
Bet 6 = 17 wins (of 30 chances = 57%) AL 9/13
13 Losses


3 year results - If playing to win 1 unit (call it $100)...
If stop after 1st 2 bets.... -870
Note: All losses counted as -$330 per loss

If stop after 1st 3 bets.... +1200
Note: Losses counted as -$770 per loss

If stop after 1st 4 bets.... -2800
NOTE: All losses counted as -$1700 per loss


The results surprised me a bit, I know I made money last season (until Labor Day wknd lol).
But...
there were times I passed on a bet.
there were times I increased a bet amount significantly.
there were times I decreased a bet amount significantly.
there were times I skipped a team series entirely.

Overall, I guess you could say I zigged and zagged pretty well...
but if you just played these #'s in a mechanical way, w/o letting anything else influence you, then the only way to make $$ was to stop after 3 bets.
Bottom Line, not much profit playing it that way.....


Re-Starts when 6gms or more remaining in series after 1st system win
Bet 1 = 181 wins (of 334 = 54%) AL 83/166
Bet 2 = 83 wins (of 153 = 54%) AL 48/83
Bet 3 = 43 wins (of 70 = 61%) AL 19/35
Bet 4 = 16 wins (of 27 = 59%) AL 10/16
Bet 5 = 5 wins (of 11 = 45%) 3/6
Bet 6 = 4 wins (of 6 = 67%)
2 Losses

*Note: re-starting w/5 gms or more remaining vastly increased the amt of chances and wins.... but not enough to offset the losses... so it was abandoned.

3 year results when betting to win $100, loss amts as previously stated....
Stopping after 3 bets = + $9,910

Stopping after 4 bets = + $13,600


Question: Are these resulty typical of what will happen every year?
Answer: I don't know... I only know the last 3 yrs, and presume it will work out about the same each year.


To me...
The re-starts look like the best proposition just lookg at the math....

So I decided to go back and review last 3 yrs for the same info on...
Long roadtrips ONLY w/8 gms or more... (no less than 8gms)
Nat'l League = + 74 units... Reg System
Nat'l League = +29 units.... Re-starts w/6gms or more remaining...
American League = -10 units w/reg system (AL East -40!!)
American League = +41 units.. Re-starts w/6gm or more
Long Homestands of 8gms or more
NL = reg. system = +14 units
NL = re-starts = +78 units
AL = reg system = +22 units
AL = re-starts = +24 units

Hope that all makes sense to you guys!

Q: Will the Nat'l League always be more productive in this system?
A: I don't know... maybe YOU can do some deeper research and let me know.... :shrug:
I think its very possible the pendulum could swing more towards the AL... I really don't know :D

So, I guess you can try to do with it whatever you think might work...

At this point I don't think I am going to track the regular home team system this season...

If there is someone else out there that can do this... please help as you can!

Thats all for now!!

Best of Luck to USALL!!

LoB :SIB
 

mnm

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Jul 19, 2002
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Terrific research and effort!

Terrific research and effort!

Can't thank you enough for all your time and sharing.

Did you have success in the system for playing the home team (chase) on the R/L? I think it too was "confined" to homestands of 6 games or more. I believe I did well with this one and would sure appreciate your thoughts on it (and whether or not you will play it and track it).

All the very best!

mnm
 

LordofBalls

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Aug 31, 2006
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mnm,

actually a gentleman named "McVegas" agreed to track the runline results for hometeams on the homestands of 6 gms or more...
as i recall, I believe the system had 6 losses for the season.. but that was playing it out for 6 wagers..

the difficulty w/posting the runline results has to do with the payoffs... sometimes you were getting "plus" money... other times you might have been laying -150 juice at -1.5 runs...

I have most of the stats...all of the American league, but they're just not totaled up yet, I was focusing my limited time on the totals systems...

Theres lots of action still ahead, I hope to post the runline stats for the last 3 yrs later this week...
I think anytime you see a hometeam on a long homestand that does not win by runline the 1st 3 gms... its a pretty good time to start playing the runline...

I am just saying that as it seems that way in my head, I hope the figures will back it up lol

will be posting again w/more stuff soon!

best o' luck!

LoB :SIB
 
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