jordan,
Yes... the Blue Jays qualify as a long roadtrip team w/7 gms... (but NOT an XL situation so no re-start)
My Terminology
Long Homestand (or Long Roadtrip) == 6 or 7 gms
XL Homestand (or XL Roadtrip) == 8 gms or longer
Note: I don't bother w/5gm homestands or re-starting when there is 5gms or less remaining in an XL situation, because the research showed there's too many losers to make it worthwhile, so I move on.
thru research, I recorded the overs/unders for all homestands of 6 gms or more for every team in MLB (usually 10-12 per season) the last 3 seasons.
Then went bk thru and reviewed the XL homestands and found a pattern of consistently hitting on my totals system and then hitting again when re-starting if 6 gms or more were left...
Then w/help from a friend, we each did the long and XL roadtrips (but only marked them according to when they hit, not every O O O U O U U like the homestand info)
I highlighted all homestands of 8 gms or more....
by doing the math for all homestands of 6 gms or more in the last 3 seasons... I discovered the following...
1) the units won if stopping after 3 bets was not that impressive (about +12 units/$1200 over 3 yrs) and going to 4 bets was slightly worse...
2) by going back and counting only the 8 gm or longer series for all teams and putting in re-start bets when there were 6 gms or more remaining.... over +200 units ahead over 3 yrs...
3) also did math for re-starts when there was only 5 gms remaining on the XL.... NOT Profitable.
while this lead to many more re-starts and wins, it also lead to many more losses... and the losses outweigh the wins in a chase system if ya know what I mean...
4) By FAR.... the most profitable situations were playing the regular totals system and re-starts for the XL Homestands and XL Roadtrips...
5) I do follow/record every team every time they take a trip of 6 gms or more...
and will usually play them by their 3rd game if they've had 2 straight overs or unders...
6) The "Early Start" concept, identifying teams that (over the last 3 seasons) have hit consistently one way or the other within the first 3 bets.... has also shown a profit of over 200 units in 3 yrs...
7) I did runline (playing @ -1.5 runs ONLY... NOT at +1.5) research on all every long and XL homestand.... there's only about 10 tms that have good records over the 3 yrs... and that's only really when you play them in the XL Homestands...
What I do...
*I will look at the plays the systems show are for that day....
*I spend about 15mins reviewing the pitcher's stats against the teams/hitters they're facing that day (on cbssportsline game preview)
*I spend another 10-15 mins ckg weather for the home teams involved...
If weather may negatively affect my play, I may either stay off it or cut back the bet, this saved me alot of $$ when I was betting on the Cubs to go Under last wk...
*I'm up over 4k in 2 1/2 wks.... and the first wk and half I was playing to win between $70 and $90 per unit....
*I've had to go to bet #4 twice, but each time I've managed well and haven't been down the full amts...
So I'm still trying to figure out the best way to track everything...
I have a 2 sheets for each team... one w/all long and XL homestands and dates.... one w/the long and XL roadtrips and dates...
I put in w/o for win/over and circle it if rl win...
tracking their progress thru these situations may provide some added insight down the road... or not lol
I spend about 1/2 hr ea. nite recording scores and to figure out the next day's stuff ....
hope this helps u understand...
BoL~LoB :SIB
