NBA WED 042909 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[Griffin8s]

Thought I might start things off.

Early leans:
Heat +5.5: This series has been to close to call for every game but I see Heat keeping this game close to within 4 pts.

Nuggest -10.5: I mean come on. Do I have to say something. You guys give me one reason why not. N.O. just doesn't have it in them I believe and Den. tasting the 2nd round after that beating the other night.

Ax will tell you I don't do the backgroumd/research that all of you do on these game as far as number but I look at the board and go with the gut. Then find the reason not to go with them. So lets hear them!!:director:

 

[Griffin8s]

Then find the reason not to go with them. So lets hear them!!:director:

Meaning I then do the research and find if I stay on it or not. Sorry to not make that clear.

 

[axp59]

There's a good chance we're going to make some money WED.

 

[JSwinz213]

Ax,
What are your early leans? I am with Griff on the Denver train as of now...

 

[axp59]

FWIW, DEN is the POD. I have another play I'm looking at. I'll post later in the afternoon once the west coast has its bearings

 

[JBrilman]

There's a good chance we're going to make some money WED.

AGREE here my friend.:toast:

I had everything nailed yesterday and I let Ace's stat on Spurs take me off a few things and put me on that parlay that you threw out. Should have stuck to my gut yesterday it has been pretty damn good since Saturday. I am on a 10-3 run since Saturday morning. :00hour :00hour

I am all over Denver. No doesn't have the heart to pull this one off in Denver. Should get ugly by the 2nd quarter!

also looking at both totals as they may have value...

 

[CoFred]

So Ax is Denver locked and loaded or are you hoping to get a better line? I'm assuming its a full 1U play too.

 

[JBrilman]

So Ax is Denver locked and loaded or are you hoping to get a better line? I'm assuming its a full 1U play too.

Its full unit, he already said that and if he posts POD its locked...This line should only get worse IMO

 

[JBrilman]

Grif,

Why the Heat? Sell me.

I was leaning the other way.

 

[axp59]

AGREE here my friend.:toast:

I had everything nailed yesterday and I let Ace's stat on Spurs take me off a few things and put me on that parlay that you threw out. Should have stuck to my gut yesterday it has been pretty damn good since Saturday. I am on a 10-3 run since Saturday morning. :00hour :00hour

I am all over Denver. No doesn't have the heart to pull this one off in Denver. Should get ugly by the 2nd quarter!

also looking at both totals as they may have value...

wholeheartedly agree.

 

[axp59]

So Ax is Denver locked and loaded or are you hoping to get a better line? I'm assuming its a full 1U play too.

This one is locked and loaded full 1U @ -10.5

 

[axp59]

Grif,

Why the Heat? Sell me.

I was leaning the other way.

This one is a tough call. A competent spin doctor can call this for either side. If you want to play this game, play the total. The side here offers very little value IMHO.

 

[JBrilman]

This one is a tough call. A competent spin doctor can call this for either side. If you want to play this game, play the total. The side here offers very little value IMHO.

LOL

Agreed, will stay away. You seeing both these games going way under like I am ?

 

[Eagle123]

BOL on Denver Ax!!

 

[axp59]

here's the tricky part with calling the totals today.
The NOH/DEN game for example is one that's calling for the OVER in all the tools I've used this past season. The signal is even stronger when I ran the numbers in my playoff 'routine'. But seriously, who in their right mind is going to bet the OVER on this?
So I ask myself, how would I be doing if I bet my eye and how would I be doing if I bet my numbers. The success we've all enjoyed during the season and the playoff run was the product of both. The only reasons I'd play the OVER tonight are: 1) I've been preoccupied with a house project the past few days and my focus not at its peak and 2) I trust my numbers. It's not perfect but coupled with the extensive tracking of all possible outcomes matched against the closing lines, I can certainly get +52.38% from it.

my toughts

 

[axp59]

BOL on Denver Ax!!

Thanks Eagle. You too sir.

 

[Griffin8s]

Grif,

Why the Heat? Sell me.

I was leaning the other way.

Some reason my gut last night said Heat but I may have talked myself out of it already. Wade's back is hurting him and it can only get worse and I didn't think Atl. had it in them but I can see that is wrong. Even though I'm a Salesman looks like I won't be selling anyone on this play. Even myself.:mj07:

At work for a bit today but I will get home soon and work on the totals.

Hows the work coming Ax?

 

[axp59]

almost done Gunny. one last thin coat and then some painting

 

[JBrilman]

here's the tricky part with calling the totals today.
The NOH/DEN game for example is one that's calling for the OVER in all the tools I've used this past season. The signal is even stronger when I ran the numbers in my playoff 'routine'. But seriously, who in their right mind is going to bet the OVER on this?
So I ask myself, how would I be doing if I bet my eye and how would I be doing if I bet my numbers. The success we've all enjoyed during the season and the playoff run was the product of both. The only reasons I'd play the OVER tonight are: 1) I've been preoccupied with a house project the past few days and my focus not at its peak and 2) I trust my numbers. It's not perfect but coupled with the extensive tracking of all possible outcomes matched against the closing lines, I can certainly get +52.38% from it.

my toughts

I KNEW you were gonna be on the other side...:mj07: :mj07:

I just can't see either game going over...


MY ONLY PLAY TODAY

DENVER -10.5

 

[Ools]

Some reason my gut last night said Heat but I may have talked myself out of it already. Wade's back is hurting him and it can only get worse and I didn't think Atl. had it in them but I can see that is wrong. Even though I'm a Salesman looks like I won't be selling anyone on this play. Even myself.:mj07:

At work for a bit today but I will get home soon and work on the totals.

Hows the work coming Ax?

What bothered me most about MIA the other night - was when all of the key possessions occured at the end of the game - every single one was an isolation for Wade at the top. 1/2 he ended up straight up iso, the other 1/2 they ran high screen -- but there was never a look even for him to pass the ball off on these screens. The few times he did pass it was right back in his hands and re-iso. Way too many long jumpers (2 pointers even) were the result. That coach seems overmatched and unauthoritative.