MLB FRI 050109 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

That's some good stuff Ax...wouldn't happen to have it broken down further on a home/away basis...if it's not too much trouble.

Home dogs +17.15U
Away dogs +120 to +149 +10.55U
Away dogs to +149 +12.75U
Home dogs to +149 +15.8U

I think these are the significant numbers.

 

[axp59]

Thank you Barts

 

[barts185]

Thank you Barts

Glad to help out when I can.

 

[BIGWave]

I wanna share some trends

betting straight dogs this season has been profitable +25.6U. Betting the favs puts you in the hole -40.9U.

Betting dogs +100 to +149 gets you +28.55U. Don't bet heavy dogs +150 and up. This is down -2.95U

This is with no filters, ax..........less than +150.
No filtering out against pitchers that are in the top 20 ERA or filtering out teams that have lost 3 in a row or more????

Always nice work.:0corn

 

[BIGWave]

Also..............
KC+120 has risen to KC+164, while CLEV+160 is now CLEV+150 and HOU+165 has moved to HOU+150.

Are the lines taken opening or closing lines???

Thanks ax - have been looking at this the last days and have the daily record at 2-3 last night and 3-5 the night before which was a bit discouraging.......but your yearly stats are far more interesting. :0corn

 

[t20boss]

Had a nice THU on the bases. Not showing much FRI even with 15 games on the board. If something pops up, I'll add it to the list but for now I like:

St. Louis +101​

BOL to all

Wellemeyer has struggled a bit early on, but Cards s/b able to give him plenty of support. Nice pic 2night, Ax. Tailing you on this, and I'm down w/Seattle late night. Eveland doesn't impress me much...

 

[axp59]

This is with no filters, ax..........less than +150.
No filtering out against pitchers that are in the top 20 ERA or filtering out teams that have lost 3 in a row or more????

Always nice work.:0corn

Dave, this is straight up raw numbers without filtering to satisfy the system requirements of that dog sys I assume you are using.

 

[axp59]

Also..............
KC+120 has risen to KC+164, while CLEV+160 is now CLEV+150 and HOU+165 has moved to HOU+150.

Are the lines taken opening or closing lines???

Thanks ax - have been looking at this the last days and have the daily record at 2-3 last night and 3-5 the night before which was a bit discouraging.......but your yearly stats are far more interesting. :0corn

these are all against the closing lines Dave.

 

[axp59]

Wellemeyer has struggled a bit early on, but Cards s/b able to give him plenty of support. Nice pic 2night, Ax. Tailing you on this, and I'm down w/Seattle late night. Eveland doesn't impress me much...

Nice win today...BOL on the live one pal. I'm one and done tonight.

 

[Griffin8s]

Thanks for the Cards play today Ax. First MLB play I think this week, but I knew if you only had one today it must be Golden!!:toast:

 

[axp59]

Anytime Gunny.

 

[axp59]

St. Louis +101 +101
_____

respectable 1-0 +1.01U

back to work

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks Ax, Barts, & others. I know in football I normally don't like to mess with a game period when the line gets to a certain point...but I needed some quick education with the bases and what you/you all are are saying makes sense. thanx.

 

[axp59]

Thanks Ax, Barts, & others. I know in football I normally don't like to mess with a game period when the line gets to a certain point...but I needed some quick education with the bases and what you/you all are are saying makes sense. thanx.

How are you in football cruncher? NFL/NCAA? My serious weakness as a capper is football.

 

[#cruncher]

I've been crunching FB #'s for about 25yrs Ax and I'm still learning. I can just say this...we have some damn good FB cappers on this site...some on this BB now, & others that will 'come out of the woodwork' round Aug/Sept...just keep hanging here...you want regret it...and you've already been a welcome addition...hope you stick around...

 

[axp59]

That's good news. I don't plan on going anywhere. Thank you, this is the only place I post these days. Got a good bunch here.