Derby Preview - Part I

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We?re less than a week away from the 135th running of the G1 Kentucky Derby and like almost every other year we?re still not sure as to who will be in the starting gate come post time.

In most years this turmoil is caused by those at the bottom of the graded earnings list whose connections hem and haw until entry time before deciding what they want to do. This year, though, the one who is at the center of it all is Quality Road, who may actually go off as the favorite should he make it to the Derby.

In just four races, Quality Road has accomplished what it takes some years to do. After breaking his maiden at Aqueduct in his debut for trainer Jimmy Jerkens, Quality Road was second in an entry level Gulfstream allowance before Jerkens added Lasix in the G2 Fountain of Youth.

That day, Quality Road showed a new dimension as he rated just off the pace as opposed to setting it before drawing off to a convincing 4 ? length win. One month layoff, in his two turn debut, Quality Road managed to stave off a furious far turn surge by Dunkirk to win the G1 Florida Derby by almost two lengths.

Unfortunately for his connections, Quality Road popped not one, but two quarter cracks since, the same injury that plagued Big Brown throughout his career, and his status for the Derby will hinge on how he rains early in the week. Should he make the Derby, he?ll be ridden by John Velazquez, who was aboard for his last two victories.

Though he is the only one of two G1 stakes winner we?ll discuss today, there is one thing that Quality Road has in common with the rest of the contenders that?ll be mentioned in this story ? he?ll be his trainers? first starter in the Run for the Roses. Of the group, that one that has accomplished the most besides Quality Road would have to be General Quarters.

Claimed out of his winning debut for $20K by owner/trainer Tom McCarthy last may, all General Quarters has done since is win the G3 Sam F. Davis and G1 Blue Grass. General Quarters shed blinkers after finishing second in a pair of minor sprint stakes at Tampa Bay Downs to win the Davis by a widening 3 ? lengths before encountering trouble when fifth in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby.

A better trip couldn?t have been scripted in the Blue Grass as jockey Eibar Coa kept General Quarters out of trouble throughout before striking the lead on the far turn while on his way to a comfortable 1 ? length score. The red-hot Julien Leparoux will be aboard in the Derby as Coa has opted to ride a familiar foe of General Quarters, Musket Man.

A winner of five of six career starts, Musket Man?s lone defeat came at the hands of General Quarters in the Davis when Musket Man failed to fire his best shot in his two turn debut and had to settle for third. In the T.B. Derby, Musket man didn?t have the best of trips and was further back than usual but managed to shake loose in deep stretch to run down the leaders at the wire.

Coa climbed aboard Musket Man for trainer Derek Ryan for the first time in his final Derby prep, the G2 Illinois Derby which he won in workmanlike fashion by two lengths at Hawthorne Park, the fourth different track he has won at.

Like Musket Man, West Side Bernie is a colt that seems to put in a solid effort no matter where he runs. Churchill Downs will be the seventh different strip he?s run over in what will be just the eighth start of his career, all of which have been a round two turns.

After breaking his maiden on dirt at Monmouth and winning the G3 Kentucky Cup Juvenile over the synthetic Turfway Park surface, West Side Bernie is winless in five starts. Don?t hold that against him though because in those five starts he?s managed to be third in the both G3 Delta Jackpot and G3 Holy Bull and second in the G1 Wood Memorial in his last start. Stewart Elliott, who rode Smarty Jones to a Derby win in 2004 rides for trainer Kelly Breen.

Another sporting a solid resume is Papa Clem. Trained by Gary Stute, Papa Clem closed out his two-year-old season with a two turn maiden win after a pair of off the board finishes in sprints to start his career. After getting beat ? length in the G2 Bob Lewis, Papa Clem tried dirt for the first time in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Racing over a sloppy course in his dirt debut, Papa Clem set the pace before tiring to finish second while holding off a pair of late threats to hold the place.

In his next start, Papa Clem showed an ability to come from off the pace en route to a victory over a stubborn, since retired Old Fashioned in the G2 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Regular rider Rafael Bejarano has the call in the Derby.

G2 Rebel winner Win Willy, fourth in the Arkansas Derby will not only be the first Derby starter for trainer McLean Robertson, it?ll also be jockey Monty Berry?s first foray onto racings? biggest stage.

Before the Rebel, Win Willy won a couple of races on dirt and was off the board in a turf race before storming down the lane to also run down Old Fashioned over a slick Oaklawn surface. In the Arkansas Derby, Win Willy was caught five wide from post 9 while managing to close some ground late and would greatly benefit if the pace is hotly contested this Saturday.

Finally, a couple of real longshots will be looking to make their respective conditioners first brush with the roses a good one. They are Summer Bird and Mind that Bird. In his last start, Summer Bird closed from far back to be third in the Arkansas Derby for trainer Tim Ice and fellow Derby rookie, jockey Chris Rosier. Trained by Chip Woolley, Mind that Bird?s four wins have came over the Polytrack at Woodbine as a two-year-old. Calvin Borel, who won the 2007 Derby on Street Sense, will ride.

 

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Derby Preview- Part II

Derby Preview- Part II

In this edition of Derby Preview, we?ll be discussing five colts that started out their careers on the West Coast. So grab an In & Out burger and throw on a Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg CD ?cause we goin? back to Cali!!

Historically, the Californian contingent of Derby runners has often been considered afterthoughts BEFORE the Derby was even run. Then, they were completely written off when all the racetracks were forced to switch to synthetic surfaces. But if you think you?re going to get off that easy this year, think again.

With the defection of Quality Road on Monday due to quarter cracks, it looks as if I Want Revenge will be the clear cut favorite when the field enters the starting gate. And long before he treated us in New York to a pair of amazing efforts, he was cutting his teeth out west.

After three third place finishes in sprints, trainer Jeff Mullins stretched I Want Revenge out and was rewarded with a wire-to-wire maiden score. A little less than two months later, he was beaten a nose in the G1 CashCall Futurity and found himself on the Derby trail.

After a third place finish in the G2 Bob Lewis, his first start with blinkers, I Want Revenge headed east to try his hand at conventional dirt in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. Sitting just off the early pace, I Want revenge turned the Gotham into a one horse show in the stretch, drawing off in ultra-impressive fashion to win the Gotham by almost nine lengths, a win that prompted IEAH Stables, majority owner of Big Brown, to purchase half the colt for a reported $4 million.

I Want Revenge followed up that performance with an even more impressive one in the G1 Wood Memorial, also at Aqueduct. After walking out of the gate and spotting the field close to a half dozen lengths under regular rider Joe Talamo, I Want Revenge was deftly guided through the field under nothing more than a hand ride to win by an easy 1 ? lengths, stamping himself as one of the favorites for this years Derby.

Though he?s never run on dirt, it?s hard to argue with anyone that prefers Pioneerof the Nile over I Want Revenge as Pioneerof the Nile has defeated his rival the two times they met. After starting his career with trainer Bill Mott, Pioneerof the Nile was transferred to three time Derby winner Bob Baffert?s barn and hasn?t lost since.

A win in the CashCall was followed by wins in the Bob Lewis, the G1 San Felipe and most recently in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. A stone closer in his first six starts, Pioneerof the Nile has shown a remarkable ability to adapt on the fly, making solid middle moves in his last two starts when jockey Garrett Gomez sensed a lack of pace. Keep in mind that though he hasn?t raced on dirt, he did train over it earlier in his career with Mott.

Second place S.A. Derby finisher Chocolate Candy is another who?ll need to handle the dirt if he?s to have any chance in the Derby. A winner of over $500K on synthetic surfaces, Chocolate Candy had little success sprinting early on in his career before turning the corner once trainer Jerry Hollendorfer stretched him out.

Chocolate Candy was third in the CashCall before winning both the California Derby and G3 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in Northern California. Mike Smith, who shocked the Derby world aboard the 50-1 Giacomo in the 2005 renewal, will ride for the first time.

One of the more intriguing entrants in this years Derby almost has to be Square Eddie. After starting his career in Europe, Square Eddie was shipped to the U.S. for the G! Breeders? Futurity at Keeneland last October, a race he won by almost 5 lengths. After finishing second in the G! Breeders? Cup Juvenile, trainer Doug O?Neill decided to put him away and plotted a three-year-old campaign.

In his first start this year, Square Eddie finished second in the G3 San Rafael after which it was decided he?d try dirt in his next start. But it wasn?t to be as he suffered a shin injury that many thought would keep him off the Derby trail. O?Neill pressed on, however, and was going to run him in the Derby off of a series of workouts before deciding on the G2 Lexington instead. After making a spectacular run on the far turn that saw him grab the lead for a bit, Square Eddie tired to third. Corey Nakatani will ride him for the first time in the Derby.

Mr. Hot Stuff figures to be the Californian lost in the shuffle as he hasn?t accomplished anywhere near as much as his fellow Left Coasters have. After breaking his maiden three starts back, Mr. Hot Stuff finished third in both the G3 Sham and S.A. Derby for trainer Eoin Harty who also conditions this colts? full brother, Colonel John. John Velazquez has picked up the mount.

 

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Trainer Mullins puts favorite in post 13 for Derby

Trainer Mullins puts favorite in post 13 for Derby

Trainer Mullins puts favorite in post 13 for Derby

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - This is the fifth time trainer Jeff Mullins has brought a horse to the Kentucky Derby, but the first time he will send out the favorite. From his rural roots in Murray, Utah, to first having success in Arizona, and then to the Southern California circuit, Mullins said he never could have imagined being in this position.
"Not at all," Mullins, the trainer of I Want Revenge, said Wednesday after post positions were determined for the 20 horses who were entered in the 135th Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs. "But it's good. They always say having the favorite in the Derby is the kiss of death, but it feels pretty good. I don't know if I'll ever be this fortunate again."

I Want Revenge, the Wood Memorial winner, wound up in post 13 after post positions were selected. He is the 4-1 favorite on the line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, and is 3-1 on the morning line of Mike Battaglia of Churchill Downs. The favorite has won the Derby the last two years and three times in the last five years.

If I Want Revenge wins, he will be the first horse to win wearing saddle cloth number 13 since Burgoo King in 1932.

Watchmaker has Dunkirk, the Florida Derby runner-up, the second choice at 9-2, with Pioneerof the Nile, the Santa Anita Derby winner, next at 5-1. Battaglia made Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile co-second choices at 4-1. They will break alongside one another, with Dunkirk in post 15, Pioneerof the Nile in post 16.

Reflecting the perceived disparity in talent in this year's Derby, both Battaglia and Watchmaker have only four horses listed at less than 15-1, and they each have six horses listed at 50-1.

The composition of the field, which underwent daily changes all week, had a final twist on Wednesday morning. Win Willy, the Rebel Stakes winner, was withdrawn from consideration after the diagnosis of the beginning of a fracture in the pastern bone of his left front leg, trainer Mac Robertson said.

"We took X-rays and on one of the X-rays there's a small line in the pastern going up into the ankle," Robertson said. "Three out of the four vets who looked at the X-ray said it looks like something that could spiral up into the cannon bone. He's not off on it, he's not sore, but there's something that's getting started. Most things start out as little problems, and if you look away, they become big problems."

That left a field of 19, but only temporarily. Trainer Nick Zito and owner Leonard Riggio, the Barnes and Noble chief executive who races as My Meadowview Farm, decided at the last second to enter Nowhere to Hide, who was fourth most recently in the Illinois Derby. He had not been under consideration for the Derby until Win Willy's defection.

"You've got to play the game," Zito said. "It's still the Kentucky Derby, and he's a 3-year-old. He was fourth in the Risen Star, fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby, and fourth in the Illinois Derby. I guess I'm going for fourth, right or wrong?"

No other horses entered the Derby at the last second, so no horses had to be excluded under the graded stakes earnings criteria, which kicks into effect if more than 20 horses, the maximum allowed to run in the race, are entered. This is the sixth straight year in which at least 20 horses were entered in the Derby.

The draw for the Derby is unlike nearly any other race in the country. At first, a traditional blind draw is held, but only to determine a draft order. Then, a representative from each horse selects a post position.

The longshot Join in the Dance, one of three horses in the Derby trained by Todd Pletcher, had the first choice, and got post 9. He is co-owned by Rashard Lewis of the National Basketball Association's Orlando Magic.

"We thought about it a lot," Pletcher said cheekily. "Since Rashard Lewis's jersey number was 9 it was pretty straightforward."

I Want Revenge had the 10th selection. Posts 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, and 16 already were taken. Showing no signs of triskaidekaphobia, co-owner David Lanzman, after consulting with Mullins, took post 13.

"We wanted to keep most of the speed inside us if we could," Mullins said. "We were going to take 14, but it got taken just before us" - by Atomic Rain - "so we took the next best thing."

Several well-regarded horses are in the auxiliary gate. Pletcher said his first choice for Dunkirk was 15, the first stall in that gate. There is a sizeable gap between the main gate and the auxiliary gate.

"I wanted him to be towards the outside," Pletcher said. "I think he has a better chance to fall into a good spot from the outside as opposed to the inside. I like the auxiliary gate, I like a little bit of space between the 14 and the 15."

Pioneerof the Nile, with the fifth pick overall, got post 16 just before Pletcher selected for Dunkirk.

"It was a little bit of a close call," Pletcher said. "I couldn't decide whether I wanted to go right next to Pioneerof the Nile or not. I notice that he doesn't always behave perfectly in the gate, but it was my first choice."

Garrett Gomez, who will ride Pioneerof the Nile, said he preferred post 16 to 15 because he did not want Pioneerof the Nile to possibly veer left at the start into the large gap between posts 15 and 14. When Bob Baffert, the trainer of Pioneerof the Nile, took 16, only posts 7, 9, 10, and 11 were gone. Baffert said he was cognizant of Pioneerof the Nile, who has never raced on dirt, avoiding the spray of dirt from the front-runners.

"There will be less dirt on the outside than there will be on the inside," Baffert said.

United Arab Emirates Derby runner-up Desert Party, with the 17th pick overall, wound up in post 19. Only posts 1, 2, and 20 also remained at the time.

"We had no choice. It was better to be there than inside," said Saeed bin Suroor, who trains Desert Party. "From 19 there is less pressure to get position early."

Desert Party and Regal Ransom, the UAE Derby winner, are both adding Lasix for this race. All other horses in the Derby regularly receive Lasix. Nowhere to Hide is adding blinkers. He removed them last time after wearing them in his previous three races.

 

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One last look reveals some clues

One last look reveals some clues

One last look reveals some clues

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - All 20 Kentucky Derby starters went to the track Thursday at Churchill Downs - one last chance to see the field for this year's Derby before making a final assessment. There were a few surprises, both good and bad, in the offing.
Churchill Downs
Cloudy, track fast, 67 degrees

Two Derby horses blew out for the race, including Papa Clem (three furlongs in 34.47 seconds), who needed to do something serious and impressive following his very disappointing seven-furlong work here last week. And sure enough, that's exactly what he accomplished. With jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard, Papa Clem left the quarter pole in full stride and flew down the stretch, getting to the wire in 22.65 while reaching out nicely under some encouragement before finishing up at the seven-furlong pole and galloping out a half in 47.86. Only three furlongs but a definite improvement over his previous work.

Nowhere to Hide, a last-minute addition to the field, blew out a quarter-mile down the lane in 25.40 before pulling up three-eighths in 38 and change.

The major disappointment this morning was Desert Party, who just didn't gallop with the same smoothness and vigor he has displayed over the past couple of weeks. Changed back to his left lead prematurely approaching the wire and was not striding out as well as you would like to see just 48 hours out from the race.

General Quarters also did not look as smooth or comfortable on Thursday as he had in previous days, while Dunkirk had a very good morning, showing a little more energy during a very sharp-looking gallop than he had in his first visit to the track.

The following is a general assessment of all 20 Derby starters from impressions they made during training hours since my arrival in Kentucky two weeks ago.

Advice: Has shown high energy during a couple of morning gallops and worked a little faster than expected, a half-mile in 47.15 with a strong gallop-out in 59.97 last weekend. Will be making a quick turnaround out of his victory in the Lexington but looks like he has bounced back nicely from the race.

Atomic Rain: Has been on the grounds only two days and did work up a little kidney sweat during his routine gallop on Thursday.

Chocolate Candy: Faltered badly when sent a mile over a wet track in his first local work before rebounding with a strong five-furlong drill in 59.24 without much urging from jockey Mike Smith. That was a very positive sign since he has never run on dirt. Getting mixed signals here but off his last work perhaps he's capable of running in for at least a share of the gimmicks at a square price.

Desert Party: Trained as well as anybody on the grounds for most of the past two weeks while turning in arguably the best pre-Derby work of the field when drilling five-eighths in 59.44, galloping out six furlongs in 1:12.60, and pulling up seven-eighths in 1:26.20 on Saturday. Unfortunately, he did not look quite as sharp on Thursday morning when he appeared to take a couple of missteps before changing leads prematurely nearing the wire. Not what I wanted to see from a horse locked in as my top pick on Wednesday evening.

Dunkirk: Got to watch him breeze twice at Palm Meadows prior to leaving for Kentucky and hard to fault either work, although I did not get to see his final major Derby prep in south Florida. Made a nice appearance galloping with high energy here Thursday morning, but still getting mixed signals. Extremely talented and the one to beat if able to bounce back off his very impressive but draining performance in the Florida Derby. Concerned about his relative inexperience and running style in a 20-horse field.

Flying Private: In his final Derby prep, he was allowed to show a little speed, which he will need to avoid getting hung out to dry breaking out of post 20 on Saturday. Improving but still looks a notch below many of these.

Friesan Fire: Turned in a very sharp mile workout over the Keeneland Polytrack before shipping to Churchill Downs and being gunned through a five-furlong workout in 57.86 seconds on Monday. He was under urging down the stretch before shutting down abruptly coming to and especially after passing the wire. Bounced back nicely out of the work and must consider him a major player, although with some trepidation over the fact he has yet to race beyond 1 1/16 miles.

General Quarters: A Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde couple of weeks for this year's Derby Cinderella story. Made a terrible first impression when reluctant to gallop and displayed unappealing leg action. Nor did he score any points when tiring noticeably at the end of his final Derby prep. Yet he bounced out of that breeze looking better than ever and had several very sharp mornings only to lose a little luster when looking less than comfortable or inspired during Thursday's training session.

Hold Me Back: Couldn't be doing any better and deserving of a mulligan over dirt following dull showing at 2 in the Remsen. Finished with interest in his final Derby work without need of urging from jockey Kent Desormeaux and has not had a bad day since. In fact, he didn't miss a single morning coming out of Sunday's work, which is taken as a very positive sign. Can see him as a longshot threat if he takes to the surface as readily as during his recent training sessions.

Join in the Dance: Cannot fault his Derby preparations and he was full of vim and vigor during Thursday's training session when galloping off at a very fast pace before ultimately coming to hand. Figures to be a major pace presence but hard to envision him hanging around for the finish.

I Want Revenge: Has improved on a regular basis over the past 10 days, culminating with a series of razor-sharp gallops and a solid half-mile work on Tuesday that was much sharper than his previous local trial. Looks ready to deliver another top performance.

Mine That Bird: Far from the most-imposing-looking member of the field, but does gallop soundly enough. Flipped leads late during a decent but uninspiring five-furlong work last weekend. Looks overmatched here.

Mr. Hot Stuff: Have had limited opportunity to observe Colonel John's baby brother, but like what I've seen so far. Makes a great physical appearance, although he did display some of his reported immaturity during Thursday's training session when gawking around and losing his focus a bit coming through the stretch.

Musket Man: Had him under consideration as a definite longshot player when arriving in town but have less expectations at this point. Turned in a very uninspiring final Derby work in which he was under heavy pressure but could not get by his stablemate, a recent maiden winner who actually was stronger during the gallop-out. Must wonder if he has not fully recovered from those big efforts in Tampa and Illinois.

Nowhere to Hide: Blew out an easy quarter-mile on Thursday after joining the dance at the 12th hour, so there has been little opportunity to garner any other impression other than he appears overmatched.

Papa Clem: Was on and then quickly off our list of contenders after a very disappointing seven-furlong workout last week in which he shut down very badly and barely made it to the finish line. Did like the way he bounced back and was reaching out during a zippy three-furlong drill on Thursday, but still think he may have peaked prematurely with his big performance in the Arkansas Derby.

Pioneerof the Nile: Could not be doing any better over the past couple of weeks and clearly should have little trouble handling dirt from what he has shown on a regular basis at Churchill Downs. Might be nitpicking to say I would have liked to have seen him finish up just a trifle quicker in his final Derby work, but other than that, he appears to be sitting on a big effort.

Regal Ransom: Has trained as well as could be expected with a couple of sharp drills over the course, although he has always been a good work horse. Not likely to get the same type of pace setup that carried him to victory in the UAE Derby.

Summer Bird: Exits an improved showing in Arkansas, but his final Derby work suggests he's liable to regress off the effort as he labored noticeably during the final stages of that drill. Lightly raced colt looks in over his head in this spot.

West Side Bernie: Has done little wrong in his final preparations, which included a relatively easy half-mile drill last weekend in response, I imagine, to the fact he's coming off a career-best effort in the Wood. Hard to knock yet thinking he's a notch below the best in this field.

ACTIVITY REPORT

ADVICE - Galloped 1 3/8 miles

ATOMIC RAIN - Galloped one mile

CHOCOLATE CANDY - Galloped 1 1/2 miles

DESERT PARTY - Galloped 1 3/8 miles

DUNKIRK - Galloped 1 3/8 miles

FLYING PRIVATE - Galloped

FRIESAN FIRE - Galloped one mile

GENERAL QUARTERS - Galloped 1 1/2 miles

HOLD ME BACK - Galloped 1 5/8 miles

JOIN IN THE DANCE - Galloped 1 3/8 miles

I WANT REVENGE - Visited the starting gate, galloped one mile

MINE THAT BIRD - Galloped two miles

MR. HOT STUFF - Galloped 1 1/2 miles

MUSKET MAN - Galloped 1 1/2 miles

NOWHERE TO HIDE - Blew out a quarter-mile in 25.40 seconds

PAPA CLEM - Worked three furlongs in 34.47

PIONEEROF THE NILE - Galloped 1 1/4 miles

REGAL RANSOM - Galloped 1 3/8 miles

SUMMER BIRD - Stood at gate, galloped one mile

WEST SIDE BERNIE - Galloped one mile

 

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RICHARD ENG: Friesen Fire heads Derby ticket

RICHARD ENG: Friesen Fire heads Derby ticket

RICHARD ENG: Friesen Fire heads Derby ticket


From 1980 to 1999, the Kentucky Derby favorite lost 20 straight times. In this decade, four favorites have won, including three over the last five years. So the question begs: Who is getting smarter, the handicappers or the horsemen? Both are.

Horseplayers have access to more and better handicapping information than ever. And horsemen are preparing their Derby hopefuls with the "less is more" theory, pinpointing the first Saturday in May with surgical precision. The trend now is deserving favorites who are running better races.

Last year, Big Brown crushed the Derby field as a solid 2-1 choice. The public was spot on, and trainer Rick Dutrow made all the right moves.

This year, the race is much more wide open with Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge (3-1) the morning-line favorite.

Do I like I Want Revenge to win? I'll try to beat him with two colts I've coveted all spring: Friesen Fire and Pioneerof the Nile. I fully expected each horse to be around 8-1 to 10-1 odds. That's a pipe dream now because of the scratch of Quality Road, who would have been a strong second choice behind I Want Revenge.

My top Kentucky Derby horse is Friesen Fire (5-1), whose last start was a win in the Louisiana Derby seven weeks ago. The layoff is trainer Larry Jones' strategy. Many have questioned his wisdom. I don't. Jones has run second in the last two Derbies with Eight Belles (2007) and Hard Spun (2006), so he knows how to prepare a Derby runner.

I suspect Jones has confidence in Friesen Fire and faith in himself to get his colt to peak Saturday off workouts alone.

Before I Want Revenge exploded to big wins in the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, there were two losses this winter to Pioneerof the Nile in Southern California. Most horseplayers have since jumped on his bandwagon and off Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile.

I think those folks are selling short trainer Bob Baffert, who has three Kentucky Derby wins, and Garrett Gomez, who chose to ride Pioneerof the Nile over Dunkirk. Baffert has quietly told others he is confident that Pioneerof the Nile (4-1) will run big Saturday.

I Want Revenge is my third choice. If he runs back to his speed figures in the Gotham and Wood Memorial, he's going to be right there. Joe Talamo overcame a horrendous trip on I Want Revenge in the Wood, breaking slowly and then having traffic trouble the length of the stretch. Talamo had better not repeat that performance in the Derby.

Another horse I will try to beat is Dunkirk (4-1). He'll have a tough task trying to pass 12 to 15 horses from the half-mile pole with his lack of experience. He is talented, but he's being asked to do a lot in only his fourth career start.

Finally, the Derby finish would not be complete without a nice long shot running late to complete your exotic wagers. A horse I'll be using liberally underneath my top choices is Hold Me Back (15-1).

? DERBY SEMINARS -- There will be two Derby seminars today, at Sam's Town and at the Plaza, both starting at 6 p.m. The "Track Talk" radio crew of Gordon Jones, John Kelly, Patrick McQuiggan and Mike Willman will be at Sam's Town. Dan Shapiro of Lucky's, Dave Tuley of viewfromvegas.com and I will be at the Plaza. Also, I'll be a guest handicapper at Planet Hollywood at a free Kentucky Derby party sponsored by propickracing.com.

 

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Based on dirt form, the choice is obvious

Based on dirt form, the choice is obvious

Based on dirt form, the choice is obvious


WASHINGTON - If synthetic tracks did not confuse the issue, an analysis of the Kentucky Derby could be reduced to a simple bit of deductive reasoning.
Pioneerof the Nile has won four straight stakes races in California. He has defeated such rivals as I Want Revenge (twice) and Papa Clem.

I Want Revenge subsequently went to Aqueduct and won two stakes impressively. Papa Clem shipped to Oaklawn Park and captured the $1 million Arkansas Derby.

In the past, the logical conclusion would have been obvious. The best 3-year-olds are in California, Pioneerof the Nile is the best of the bunch, and he figures to win the 135th Derby on Saturday.

However, such reasoning is not applicable since the Southern California tracks replaced their traditional dirt ovals with synthetic surfaces. Few horses display the same ability on dirt and synthetics, and it is difficult to predict a horse's preferences until he has tried both.

The California-based I Want Revenge had displayed very respectable form on synthetic surfaces, though he had managed to win only a maiden race in six starts. But when trainer Jeff Mullins shipped him to Aqueduct in order to try him on dirt, he was a different horse. I Want Revenge earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 113 in the Gotham Stakes, a number that was 21 points higher than his best effort in the West and was good enough to win any of the last six Kentucky Derbies.

However, the fact that I Want Revenge made this successful transition has absolutely no relevance to the chances of the other synthetic-track specialists in the Derby field. Perhaps one of them will improve on dirt, too, but the probabilities are against them. Last year, four horses came into the Derby with solid credentials on synthetics and no proven dirt form; they finished sixth, ninth, 16th, and 19th. I will bet against all of the synthetic specialists in Saturday's race - Chocolate Candy, Advice, Hold Me Back, Mr. Hot Stuff, and particularly Pioneerof the Nile.

As a 2-year-old, Pioneerof the Nile was trained by the astute Bill Mott, who launched the colt's career by running him on the grass at Saratoga and never tried him on dirt. It is plausible to assume that Mott didn't think he was a good dirt runner. Under the care of Bob Baffert this year, Pioneerof the Nile has blossomed at Santa Anita, which favors horses with his stretch-running style, but he may be strictly a synthetic-track horse.

Synthetic tracks have only injected handicapping riddles into the Derby. They have changed the complexion of the field and the dynamics of the race. The Derby has usually been filled with speed horses whose owners and trainers are praying they can somehow hang on for 1 1/4 miles. Many of these horses earned their way into the field after successes on speed-favoring tracks at Santa Anita and Keeneland. Their presence often created a destructive early pace that set up the Derby for a stretch-runner.

But since California and Keeneland have both converted to synthetics, fewer such speedsters enter the Derby. With a slower early pace, horses coming from far behind are compromised. That is an additional reason for bettors to avoid synthetic-track stretch-runners and to prefer horses who have shown speed on the dirt.

I Want Revenge is a standout in the Derby on the basis of his 2-for-2 dirt record. His losses in California are largely irrelevant. He has the necessary speed, which he displayed by dueling for the lead and winning the Gotham Stakes. But he showed other dimensions to his talent when he broke several lengths behind the field in the Wood Memorial, encountered traffic trouble in the stretch, and still managed to win. He possesses the versatility and stamina that are important assets at Churchill Downs.

After the formidable Quality Road was knocked out of the Derby by a hoof problem, there appear to be only two challengers with a plausible chance to beat the favorite: Friesan Fire and Dunkirk. Friesan Fire won three straight stakes in Louisiana, and he showed his readiness for the Derby with a sizzling five-furlong workout this week. One possible knock against him is that he earned his only excellent speed figure on a sloppy track. Dunkirk definitely has the talent, based on his second-place finish behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby. He owns the second-best speed figure in the field. However, the $3.7 million yearling has raced three times and never started as a 2-year-old. He is bucking a formidable precedent: No horse unraced at 2 has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882.

Since these two rivals are anything but iron-clad propositions, bettors playing trifectas and superfectas can take a chance with longshots who have respectable dirt form. Papa Clem ran decently to win the Arkansas Derby. Desert Party and Regal Ransom both have enough speed and seasoning to fare better than the other shippers from Dubai who have flopped at Churchill Downs. But this much about the Derby seems clear (at least to me): I Want Revenge will win it, and none of the synthetic- track specialists will finish close to him.

(c) 2009, The Washington Post

 

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Run for Roses 'kind of like lottery'

Run for Roses 'kind of like lottery'

Run for Roses 'kind of like lottery'

Potential for big reward worth financial risk

By MATT YOUMANS
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL
Some experienced bettors try to downplay the Kentucky Derby as a crapshoot unworthy of a serious handicapper's effort. Wynn Las Vegas sports book director John Avello disagrees.

Avello said the potential reward the Derby offers is well worth the risk.

"In a 20-horse field, what makes this such an intriguing race to wager are the exotic wagers, because the payoff you get can be a huge number," he said. "I've played the Derby a lot, and it's one of the few races where I play trifectas.

"It's a horse race that's kind of like a lottery. If you can connect the dots, it can be an extraordinary payoff, and that's what makes this such a great betting race."

Avello said he expects I Want Revenge to go off as the 3-1 favorite today at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Rain is in the forecast, so weather could play a factor.

In the past, avoiding the favorite was Rule No. 1 in the Derby. But that theory is not so often regurgitated by race analysts anymore. The post-time favorite has won three of the past five Derbys, including Big Brown last year, Street Sense in 2007 and Smarty Jones in 2004.

Avello said he will consider using Friesan Fire, winner of the Louisiana Derby, and I Want Revenge, winner of the Wood Memorial, in trifecta wagers with horses such as General Quarters, Hold Me Back, Musket Man and Regal Ransom.

He said he also likes the looks of Dunkirk, second in the Florida Derby, and Pioneerof the Nile, which won the Santa Anita Derby and is ridden by top jockey Garrett Gomez.

Dave Tuley, a Daily Racing Form contributor, said the plethora of options turns the Derby into a challenge and an opportunity.

"Some horseplayers would debate me on whether the Derby is a good betting race since the 20-horse field can turn it into a crapshoot, but the fact is it's worth a shot because you really get paid for being right," said Tuley (viewfromvegas.com).

"With all the possible combinations, the exotic wagers like the exacta, trifecta and superfecta can easily pay in the thousands."

Tuley said he looks for long shots with a better chance than the odds offered, and his value play is Regal Ransom at 30-1 on the morning line.

"He always shows speed out of the gate, but he doesn't need the lead. I think he'll let Join in the Dance set the early fractions and be sitting second the first half of the race," Tuley said. "He should be leading the field as they enter the stretch. It'll come down to whether he's good enough. Regal Ransom is the son of Distorted Humor, who sired 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, so I think he can get the distance.

"Among the favorites, I prefer Pioneerof the Nile and will be using those two in all my exotic wagers. Other price plays that will be helped by a fast pace and could light up the tote board include Mr. Hot Stuff and Musket Man."

Papa Clem, a top California horse and winner of the Arkansas Derby, has emerged as a wiseguy play this week and is 20-1 on the morning line.

 

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Friesan Fire to sizzle in Derby

Friesan Fire to sizzle in Derby

Friesan Fire to sizzle in Derby
By Don Agriss, Horse Racing Editor

Louisville, KY - The preps are complete, the post positions have been drawn and the morning-line has been set for Saturday's 135th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

It should come as no surprise my pick for the Run for the Roses is Louisiana Derby winner Friesan Fire. I picked him back in January when I saw him win the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

Owned by Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm, Friesan Fire remained in New Orleans and proceeded to capture the Risen Star Stakes before easily taking the Louisiana Derby. He devastated the opposition in the Derby by more than seven-lengths on a sloppy track.

There is a chance of rain on Friday and Saturday which can only help Friesan Fire.

"We are not hoping for rain," trainer Larry Jones said on Tuesday. "We want a fast track. We know we are OK because he ran well at the Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby. Churchill Downs gets very good when it is wet. If it rains, we won't spend the day panicking."

The three-year-old colt is perfect in his three starts this year for $540,000.

The two negatives are that he will be stepping up from 1 1/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby to 1 1/4 miles on Saturday. More importantly Friesan Fire will have seven weeks between races.

Of course in this day and age historical precedents have been set in recent years in the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro won in 2006 after a five week rest and last year Big Brown only had two preps races as a three-year-old before winning the Run for the Roses and won the race from number 20 post.

In the latest NTRA three-year-old poll Friesan Fire is third behind Saturday's favorite I Want Revenge and Pioneerof the Nile who is 4-1 along with Dunkirk. Dunkirk is fifth in the poll with the sidelined Quality Road in fourth.

The main attribute Friesan Fire has that will serve him well in the race is his tactical speed. He can be placed anywhere during the race according to the pace. If he needs to be at the front, no problem. Jockey Gabriel Saez can back him off a hot pace and let the colt come from off the pace.

There is enough speed in the field to allow Friesan Fire to sit about five to six lengths behind the pacesetters. Entering the far turn he should begin his move to the lead. With a quarter-mile to run look for Friesan Fire to be at the front and draw away from the field.

Post-time for the 135th Kentucky Derby is now listed as 6:24 p.m. (et).

 

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Former Winning Jockey likes 'Desert Party' in the Derby

Former Winning Jockey likes 'Desert Party' in the Derby

Former Winning Jockey likes 'Desert Party' in the Derby

By Jean Cruguet,
Triple Crown Winning Jockey

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Jean Cruguet, who rode Seattle Slew to thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown in 1977, is at the Kentucky Derby this week, serving as a celebrity handicapper for Churchill Downs official hospitality program,


Jean Cruguet
A savvy handicapper who has a small horse farm at his home, Cruguet is part of a new initiative called Derby Legends, a marketing partnership among he and prominent former fellow jockeys Steve Cauthen, Pat Day, Laffit Pincay and Ron Turcotte. Derby Legends offers speaking engagements, endorsements and other opportunities around those renowned horse racing personalities. QuintEvents, Churchill Downs Official Hospitality Provider, engaged Cruguet's services through Derby Legends.

Thursday morning on the backside at Churchill Downs, Cruguet provided these late insights into the race, which locked in its post positions Wednesday.

"At this point, I like Desert Party to win the race. My Exacta pick is Desert Party with I Want Revenge, who is now the Morning Line favorite. I'm losing interest in Pioneerof The Nile, despite the winning record.

The way I Want Revenge won the Wood Memorial despite trouble throughout was very impressive. With a confident rider in the young and talented Joe Talamo, this horse deserves to be the early favorite.

Desert Party should have won his last race in Dubai. He was much the best horse and has. He is proven in the U.S. as a juvenile and overseas this year. Look for the 2009 Derby Party to be held in his honor.

The other horse to watch is Friesan Fire, a grandson of the great Seattle Slew. Obviously, I like the breeding. Training up to the Derby off a seven week layoff may concern some but not me. He looks like a hot horse and could be on fire Derby Day."

In 1976, with Cruguet aboard, Seattle Slew won the Champagne Stakes and earned the industry's two year-old champion award, before going on to achieve racing immortality. In the three year-old campaign, they won the Flamingo Stakes and the Wood Memorial Stakes en route to Louisville and emerged as a superstar duo with the 1977 Derby victory over Run Dusty Run. The Preakness and Belmont Stakes triumphs followed, giving the French-born Cruguet his place in history. Cruguet now resides in Versailles, KY, 64 miles from Louisville.

"The Kentucky Derby may be the top event in all of sports and entertainment," said Cruguet, whose final ride in The Derby came in 1984, when Play Fellow finished fourth behind Swale. "It's special to be involved in an official capacity with Churchill Downs and Derby Experiences."

He will be joined in the celebrity handicapper role by media personality Tom Leach of Lexington, KY, the radio and television voice of the University of Kentucky Wildcats football and basketball teams, who is also a thoroughbred horse racing expert. Leach worked with Churchill Downs and QuintEvents on the program in its debut last year, when Paul Pompa, Jr, the part owner of Big Brown, was one of the "Derby Experiences" guests.

"Derby Experiences has two major attributes," said Brian Learst of QuintEvents. "Elements that you can't get anywhere else, like Millionaire's row and interacting with Jean Cruguet, plus guaranteed, high-quality delivery, which you would expect from an iconic brand like Churchill Downs."

 

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The Kentucky Derby - A Rainy Proposition

The Kentucky Derby - A Rainy Proposition

The Kentucky Derby - A Rainy Proposition
by Jeff Frank, Contributing Editor

Philadelphia, PA - The 20-horse field is set for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby, but the race will lose a ton of luster when Mother Nature rears her ugly head on Saturday afternoon.

The track is already muddy from Thursday's rain, and the early forecast for Derby Day calls for a 60 to 70 percent chance of rain from noon through the evening. With that as the backdrop, predicting the outcome of the 2009 Kentucky Derby is an extremely difficult task, more so than almost any other Derby of this decade. Friesan Fire and Desert Party are two horses that have won over a sloppy track, while only a handful of others have ever set foot on one.

Today's column will feature those two colts along with three others, beginning with Pioneerof the Nile.

The son of Empire Maker has done nothing wrong in his quest for Derby stardom, with four straight victories including a pair of Grade I triumphs. He also has the distinction of running against and defeating more horses in this race than any other member of the field. Not only has he beaten Chocolate Candy twice, he got the best of the morning line favorite I Want Revenge in both the Cash Call Futurity and the Robert B. Lewis. In the latter event, he also defeated Arkansas Derby winner Papa Clem. Only Musket Man has won as many races (five), and no other horse can claim as many stakes wins as Bob Baffert's colt.

There are some concerns, however, as Pioneerof the Nile has yet to race on conventional dirt, with seven of his nine lifetime starts on synthetics and his first two appearances coming on the Saratoga turf. It's true that he has beaten many of the top contenders in the Derby, but after taking a closer look at how he did so, the results do not seem as flattering.

Pioneerof the Nile defeated I Want Revenge in the Cash Call Futurity after already running in a pair of Grade I events, while I Want Revenge was coming into the race right off his maiden victory. The same scenario took place in the Robert B. Lewis as Pioneerof the Nile, now having run in three straight Grade I races, barely got past another recent maiden winner, Papa Clem.

Even though he's won four in a row, he was extremely rank in the early stages of his last two. One can forgive him for doing so against a weak field in the San Felipe, but the same thing happened again in the Santa Anita Derby, a race that left more questions than answers.

The head-on angle shows Pioneerof the Nile, under severe whipping from Gomez, bearing in and out through the stretch in his first attempt at nine furlongs. Will he be able to improve his poor habits running an extra furlong on a surface he has yet to see against 19 other horses? It's a risk too tough to take.


THE TWO PROBABLE FAVORITES

With Quality Road on the sidelines, I Want Revenge could be the post time favorite. In his first race on dirt in the Gotham Stakes, he dazzled the New York crowd with an 8 1/2-length win, earning a 113 Beyer figure. In a fascinating statistic, the last seven Kentucky Derby winners have all won a race by eight lengths or more prior to the first Saturday in May. (The only other horse in this field that can stake that claim is Advice.)

I Want Revenge followed up that effort with a devastating performance in the Wood Memorial, after three one-way trips across the country. The son of Stephen Got Even broke slow from the gate and still had enough energy to defeat a field of eight by 1 1/2-lengths, running his final three furlongs in 36 seconds flat under a hand-ride.

His talent cannot be questioned, but his energetic, high-strung personality might be his downfall. On April 13, just a day before his first scheduled local workout, he cast in his stall, which left scrapes all over his head and left knee. Imagine what might happen on Derby Day with over 140,000 fans in attendance at Churchill Downs.

Here's something else to remember. The reason I Want Revenge was moved off synthetics was due to his inability to properly grip the Pro-Ride surface out west. One has to wonder how he'll adjust to a projected sloppy racetrack in Kentucky. If he was spinning his wheels at Santa Anita, might he do the same on Saturday?

Trainer Larry Jones has finished second in each of the last two years with Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Is Friesan Fire the horse to take him to the Promised Land before he retires? If that happens, then a couple of longstanding Derby myths will be discarded.

Friesan Fire has yet to race beyond 1 1/16. The last Run for the Roses winner without the benefit of a nine-furlong race was Middleground in 1950.

In addition, Friesan Fire's last trip around the track was back on March 14 in the Louisiana Derby, a race he won by 7 1/4-lengths in the slop at Fair Grounds. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby off a six-week break since Needles grabbed the crown in 1956. Barbaro and Big Brown both proved victorious with a five-week layoff, but Friesan Fire enters the race with an unheard of seven-weeks of inactivity.

Nevertheless, if there's any trainer that can pull it off, it's Larry Jones. He came close to breaking the above trends the last two years, as Hard Spun ran second off a six-week layoff in '07 and Eight Belles did the same without a 1 1/8-mile prep just last year.

Friesan Fire has been training exactly as Hard Spun had prior to the '07 Derby, with a mile workout followed by a five-furlong blowout. The only difference is that Friesan Fire finished in 1:14 flat after five in 57 4/5, while Hard Spun galloped out six furlongs in 1:11 2/5 after five in 57 3/5.

Breaking from post six should set him up in a good spot right behind the early speed, and the wet track makes him a must-play. However, that's what most of the betting public will think, so look for the son of A.P. Indy to wind up as the favorite come post time.


TAKE YOUR PICK

Godolphin Racing has not had much of an impact in the Kentucky Derby with horses brought over from Dubai. The best finish of the five came in 2000 when China Visit, with only two lifetime starts, finished sixth to Fusaichi Pegasus. Curule, who ran seventh that year, didn't even start as a two-year- old. The next year, Express Tour ran just once at three prior to the Derby while Essence of Dubai only had two starts as a three-year-old before the 2002 Run for the Roses.

This year, the stable has gone about winning the Derby the right way. Its top candidate, Desert Party, has had three preps in '09, after winning two of three races, including the Sanford Stakes, as a two-year-old in the United States.

The son of Street Cry (Street Sense's sire) defeated Regal Ransom early this year in the Ford Flex by a half-length and then crushed that rival, along with Vineyard Haven, by almost five lengths in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

The track bias at Nad Al Sheba affected his performance in the UAE Derby as stablemate Regal Ransom finally got the best of him at nine furlongs. Speed was king in Dubai that day and Desert Party, despite sitting a couple of lengths off the lead, could not catch Regal Ransom, coming up a half-length short at the wire but 15 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. Moreover, both trainer and jockey felt the horse wasn't at his peak heading into the race.

Desert Party has looked fabulous in morning workouts over the Churchill Downs strip and despite the lack of a two-turn race he should be on top of his game this Saturday, particularly if there's moisture on the track. The only negative might be the 19 post.

Never in the entire history of the Derby has a horse won from that position, but jockey Ramon Dominguez might be able to keep his horse from floating wide as the field hits the first turn, since most of the speed will be breaking from posts one through 10.

It's been over a century since a horse won the Kentucky Derby without a two- year-old start. That trend will end this year when Dunkirk crosses the wire first at Churchill Downs.

The $3.7 million yearling encountered as much trouble in his first two starts as most horses see over a full year of racing. Not many colts can overcome a slow start and win by almost six lengths in their debut, and then stretch out to 1 1/8-miles and win by almost five while being carried into the eight-path around the first turn.

Dunkirk completed his nine furlongs in 1:50 earning a 98 Beyer in that second start, running faster than grade-one older horses had in the Donn Handicap earlier in the meet. In addition, he already has dealt with bulky fields, as 12 horses ran in his debut and 10 hit the track in his next outing. To put that into perspective, Friesan Fire has only encountered one double-digit field in his seven career outings.

In his most recent event, the Florida Derby, Quality Road took advantage of a speed-favoring Gulfstream Park surface and outran Dunkirk through the stretch to win by 1 3/4-lengths. It was a gap of six back to the third-place horse. There's no shame in losing to Quality Road as that colt would have vied for favoritism with Friesan Fire and I Want Revenge if two quarter cracks had not forced him to miss the Derby.

Todd Pletcher's decade long 0-21 Derby slump will end, as the best horse will win the most important three-year-old race in the county provided he can handle the sloppy racecourse.


HOW TO BET THE DERBY

The most important factor in regard to handicapping this year's Derby is the track condition. Speed has been the answer the last three times the race was run on muddy or sloppy tracks.

Smarty Jones galloped to victory sitting right behind Lion Heart, who held second, in the 2004 Derby, while both Go For Gin and Sunday Silence proved best on the lead in 1994 and 1989, respectively.

That doesn't mean a horse can't run well from off the pace. Strodes Creek rallied for second to Go For Gin, and Easy Goer, who disliked the off-going, still managed to nail the place spot behind Sunday Silence.

Given the expected track conditions, Desert Party and Friesan Fire must be used along with Dunkirk.

Given a $100 bankroll, this is how I would handle the wager. Throw $25 on an exacta box with Dunkirk and Desert Party for $50. Then bet $15 on each horse to win for $30, leaving $20.

Finally, take the two horses that have won on the slop - Friesan Fire and Desert Party - and box them in a $5 exacta for a total of $10, and do the same with Friesan Fire and Dunkirk for another $10.

For those with larger bankrolls, Hold Me Back, Chocolate Candy and Regal Ransom are other horses that should be used in trifectas and superfectas.


THE FINAL JEFF FRANK TOP 10

1) Dunkirk; 2) Desert Party; 3) Friesan Fire; 4) I Want Revenge; 5) Hold Me Back; 6) Chocolate Candy; 7) Pioneerof the Nile; 8) Regal Ransom; 9) Summer Bird; 10) Papa Clem.

 

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Kentucky Derby 135: Beware sloppy handicapping

Kentucky Derby 135: Beware sloppy handicapping

Kentucky Derby 135: Beware sloppy handicapping

John Pricci is the editor of no direct links:admin

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, April 30, 2009 -- Looks like it might rain on all those Derby hats. Oaks hats, anyway.

Which leaves all horseplayers in a quandary. What?s a handicapper to do?

I learned a long time ago that, when making an analysis well before post time, it?s a mistake to ?handicap for a wet track.?

If wet track pedigree is there? Great, have at it. If wet track form is there? Add gusto.

With 52 hours to post time, as this is written, we refuse to be psyched out by conditions which are not knowable until it's time for what jockeys refer to as that song.

I covered 14 renewals of the Kentucky Derby while at Newsday and can tell you that on two occasions - maybe one was a Breeders? Cup, come to think of it - I've seen a sloppy track turn fast in a matter of hours, especially in the spring.

Track superintendent Butch Lehr is legendary and the Churchill surface is rapidly drying. All the weather maps I?ve seen show an obscured half-sun for Saturday afternoon.

Perhaps, the derby gods will be kind. And we will not construct our tickets until the last possible moment which, for HRI readers, will be posted at 1:05 AM on Derby day.

Here, then, a look at the remaining members of Derby 135, listed in post position order with early line odds in parentheses:

11-CHOCOLATE CANDY (20-1): Loves the game, as his winning record attests, and his trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, should already be in the Hall of Fame. Of course, this colt has never seen dirt. The good news is that if handicappers must guess how his form will translate from the synthetics, winning bettors would be well compensated compared to, say, high profile conqueror Pioneer of The Nile. Suffered through very difficult trip when second in Santa Anita Derby, and probably was a short horse, too. Expect him to be at tops, indicating a superfecta finish is possible, and at generous odds.

12-GENERAL QUARTERS (20-1): Gray Cinderella colt is versatile, showing a liking for Tampa Bay, Churchill, and even Keeneland?s Polytrack, winning on the early pace or stalking just off it. The negative is that he?s a bit in-and-out, and this looks like an out spot. Hasn?t been breaking stopwatches since returning to his Churchill base and loses Eibar Coa to Musket Man. Not yet an elite three year old, his running style places him in a vice between the speed and the ralliers.

13-I WANT REVENGE (3-1): Turns out he?s a wonderful dirt horse. Classy, brave and athletic, no Derby-135 entrant has a better rapport with his rider than this colt has with the young, talented, cocky wise-beyond-years Joe Talamo. Between Animal Planet, his cucumber-cool Wood Memorial, and avoiding an Alysheba-like calamity to win a So Cal event last week, the racing gods just might be conspiring here. Churchill gallops indicate there might be more where that Gotham and Wood came from. Deserving favorite.

14-ATOMIC RAIN (50-1): Never lived up to the early season promise he demonstrated at Gulfstream Park. He?s never been a serious threat anytime he faced accomplished three-year-old competition, and got into the race due to all the last-minute defections. Had a Monmouth Park blowout before boarding a van for the 13-hour ride to Louisville, where he and partner Joe Bravo at best figure to get hot and dirty.

15-DUNKIRK (4-1): Apollo, 1882, and that?s a whole lot of history. Historical trends have been falling by the wayside recently but there?s a good reason why this one has lasted. But this colt cannot be eliminated on those grounds. True, he?s done a lot of developing in a short time. But his performance figures have increased with distance and experience. Todd Pletcher said that the long, lean individual is typical of the better Unbridled?s Songs, and has put on weight since the Florida Derby. Five weeks should be enough to refill the tank. Major player

16-PIONEEROF THE NILE (4-1): Undefeated for newly elected Hall of Famer Bob Baffert but, as everyone knows, 0-for-0 on dirt. The Pro Ride horses have been running well on dirt all spring and observers have been impressed with how comfortable this colt is on the Churchill surface. But how he handles it Saturday is a complete guess. His high cruising speed suits the anticipated race shape and he wants to compete and to beat you. My guess is that he?ll transition to dirt. Now he needs to prove it. Value at 6-1 plus.

17-SUMMER BIRD (50-1): An interesting newcomer with less seasoning than Dunkirk, also making career start number four. This guy debuted even later, following his Mar. 1 sprint debut loss with a good win going long, then was a slow-start, wide-rally, strong-finish third in the Arkansas Derby. Even a money finish would be too much to expect but the race could provide an excellent educational foundation. Belmont, maybe?

18-NOWHERE TO HIDE (50-1): If a Kentucky Derby was held without Nick Zito, would the sky fall? Might never get an answer to that question. This is a nice colt who at present is not ready for something like this. But apparently the owners of My Meadowbrook Farm have dreamt about running in the Derby and will get their wish Saturday afternoon. Shaun Bridgmohan gets the last-minute assignment.

19-DESERT PARTY (15-1): The perceived stronger half of the Dubai pair was compromised by a moderate pace and a quality loose stablemate which kept him from sweeping the Dubai triple crown. A graded stakes win as a Saratoga juvenile speaks to his class and foundation and both Dubai runners appear to be thriving at the Downs. Owns enough pedigree and positional speed for the trip and is partnered with future Hall of Famer Ramon Dominguez. Wide draw hurts.

20-FLYING PRIVATE (50-1): Since stretching back out as a three-year-old, Fusaichi Pegasus colt has come to hand for four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas. Following a good second in the Lane?s End, he suffered through a difficult Arkansas Derby trip. Finished well in his final Derby work at Churchill with a good gallop-out beneath new rider Robby Albarado. The post is a killer and he?s in deep water with these.

 

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HorseRaceInder.com will once again be bringing our readers our Kentucky Derby Media S

HorseRaceInder.com will once again be bringing our readers our Kentucky Derby Media S

HorseRaceInder.com will once again be bringing our readers our Kentucky Derby Media Selections with consensus. Results from various members of the horse racing media will continue to be updated as they come in, so check back to often to see if there has been any change. Friesan Fire seems to be the consensus so far to win the 135th Kentucky Derby, but after that it gets close.

Kentucky Derby 135 Media Selections with Consensus
Win Place Show
John Pricci
HorseRaceInsider.com Dunkirk I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile
Vic Zast
HorseRaceInsider.com Dunkirk Hold Me Back Pioneerof the Nile
Bill Christine
HorseRaceInsider.com Desert Party I Want Revenge Chocolate Candy
Cary Fotias
HorseRaceInsider.com West Side Bernie Regal Ransom Desert Party
Mike Brunker
NBCSports.com Pioneerof the Nile Chocolate Candy Friesan Fire
Jessica Chapel
JessicaChapel.com Friesan Fire Regal Ransom Papa Clem
Ron Correll
Tracksideview.com Friesan Fire Papa Clem Summer Bird
Jody Demling
Louisville Courier-Journal I Want Revenge Desert Party Mr. Hot Stuff
Joe Drape
New York Times Friesan Fire Papa Clem Regal Ransom
Richard Eng
Las Vegas Review-Journal Friesan Fire Pioneerof the Nile I Want Revenge
Bill Finley
New York Times Dunkirk Friesan Fire I Want Revenge
Bob Mieszerski
Todaysracingdigest.com Dunkirk I Want Revenge Pioneerof the Nile
Paul Moran
At the Races Desert Party Friesan Fire I Want Revenge
Brendan O'Meara
The Saratogian Friesan Fire Dunkirk Chocolate Candy
Ray Paulick
PaulickReport.com Pioneerof the Nile I Want Revenge Dunkirk
Mike Penna
HorseRacingRadio.net Friesan Fire I Want Revenge Regal Ransom
Berverley Smith
The Globe and Mail Friesan Fire I Want Revenge Desert Party
Alicia Wincze
Lexington Herald-Leader Friesan Fire Pioneerof the Nile Chocolate Candy

Consensus Friesan Fire
(47) I Want Revenge
(26) Dunkirk
(24)

Consensus: 5 points were awarded for a 'win' selection, 3 points for 'place', and 1 point for 'show'

 

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Kentucky Derby 135: May the Best Horse Win

Kentucky Derby 135: May the Best Horse Win

Kentucky Derby 135: May the Best Horse Win

SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, May 2, 2009--Unlike the last two years when we were locked in to our Derby horses early on, Street Sense and Big Brown, this year I have no firm opinions.

Even if the track were fast, a third surface turned a difficult test into a guessing game.

And when you guess in this business, you lose.

This year, even the best Derby horses have warts. I?m not convinced we?ll get the Wood effort back from I Want Revenge. Dunkirk is seasoned but lacking in experience.

Friesan Fire will probably get his track. But for me it?s not the seven weeks as it is the 8.5 furlongs. I love Pioneerof The Nile as a racehorse, but I have no idea what to expect tomorrow. They are the Big Four, and they all have handicapping warts.


So I asked myself which horse will make me bang my head against the wall if I didn?t pick it and it won.

That horse is Dunkirk, and that?s because I lost my Derby horse when Quality Road went to the sidelines.

For the record, Dunkirk will win, I Want Revenge will place and Pioneerof The Nile will show.

How absolutely boring of me.

So let?s have some fun with the gimmicks--and you?ll be the one who decides who to use and how to play it. I won?t know what I?ll do for sure until later this afternoon.

But here?s the rule: There are four tiers: Top, Second, Third and Fourth, representing projected finishers of horses will believe will win or, at least, contend. Use them as you will. However, no tier, when layering the tickets, can jump more than one level.

Top Tier: Dunkirk and I Want Revenge

Second Tier: Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom and Pioneerof The Nile

Third Tier: West Side Bernie, Mr. Hot Stuff, Chocolate Candy

Fourth Tier: Musket Man and Papa Clem

In other words, the rule says I can?t use West Side Bernie to save in the Top Tier. Nor can I use Papa Clem to finish better than third. Got that? And, of course, a horse that can finish first obviously could finish second, third, fourth or worse.

The tiers, of course, represent the straight, exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools. I figure to be in all of them. Bet only what you can afford. Take one moon shot for a few dollars; the Derby pools are humongous.

Four numbers could change your life forever. If not, you?re out $5 or $10. As hard as it is, it?s ?America?s Race,? and it?s worth a sawbuck--if you?re truly a red-blooded American.

And, please, may they all come back safe.

 

[Lumi]

A Different Look at the Kentucky Derby Field

A Different Look at the Kentucky Derby Field

A Different Look at the Kentucky Derby Field


This week's HandiGambling 131 exercise is the Kentucky Derby. Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race (including Kentucky Oaks - Kentucky Derby Daily Doubles), and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought process about wagering, it would be appreciated.

I landed on several win candidates. In order of preference:

DESERT PARTY (#19) is professional and tactical, and had to rally over a speed-favoring track in the UAE Derby while under an overly-confident ride by Frankie Dettori. He has enough speed to secure a stalking trip while in the second or third flight. There may not be a ton of pace in this Derby, and Desert Party can get the jump on the stone closers from 5-7 lengths off the early leaders.

REGAL RANSOM (#10) was flattered by the bias in the UAE Derby, and 1 1/4 miles may be just outside his range, but he could be aided by the possible moderate splits. I'm projecting Regal Ransom to sit just off overmatched pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE only to take over with three furlongs to run. I'm hoping he'll be in front when they hit the "wall of sound." After that, we'll see how good he is.

DUNKIRK (#15) may have the most upside potential of any horse in the field. Yes, he's inexperienced, but he's also very talented. He ran against the bias in the Florida Derby when rallying five wide on the far turn only to be turned away by an excellent three-year-old in the now-injured Quality Road. Dunkirk will likely need some pace to properly setup his late kick, but expect to see the gray streak makes his presence felt at some point of the running.

I WANT REVENGE (#13) (SCRATCHED) is a favorite without many holes. He ran fast in the Gotham when pressuring a quick and quality three-year-old in Mr. Fantasy, then asserted his class by overcoming a horror trip to win the Wood Memorial under only hands and heels urging. He has enough speed to find a good spot going into the first turn...if he breaks well from the gate. Hopefully, his abysmal start in the Wood Memorial was an aberration instead of the beginning of a bad habit.

FRIESAN FIRE (#6) has Funny Cide-eque tactical speed, and may work out a similar trip as the plucky New York-bred gelding. He can track the pace while saving ground, is proven over a wet surface and, according to the Beyers, has run some races fast enough to compete with these.

#1 WEST SIDE BERNIE isn't impossible in the gimmicks although he was no match for I Want Revenge in the Wood, and that one had a much more difficult journey. West Side Bernie also suffered from a minor bout of colic since the Wood, and must avoid being shuffled all the way back after breaking from the rail.

#2 MUSKET MAN looked a tired horse when switching back to his wrong lead in the waning strides of the Illinois Derby. That should have been expected as he's bred to excel at shorter distances, but Musket Man has already outrun his pedigree. He's a likeable colt, but probably a cut below the top contenders.

#3 MR. HOT STUFF has some long-term potential, but this horse is as green as the Grinch when compared to his older brother, Colonel John, at this point last year. A one-run closer, Mr. Hot Stuff needs pace and race luck.

#4 ADVICE was aided by a wonderful ride from Garrett Gomez when winning the Lexington at Keeneland. He's another late-kicker that needs racing luck, and is probably better at shorter distances over synthetic surfaces.

I think #5 HOLD ME BACK is coming into this race wonderfully for Bill Mott. He showed a lot of class in winning the Lane's End in his first start off a four-month break, and I don't think he was fully cranked when second to GENERAL QUARTERS in the Blue Grass. He's probably sitting on 'go' for the Derby, but has yet to win on dirt, and needs a trip from the rear of the field.

#7 PAPA CLEM showed a new dimension when stalking-and-pouncing to victory in the Arkansas Derby, and he was game to hold the place in the Louisiana Derby. He can be close to the expected moderate pace under the aggressive Rafael Bejarano, and looms an exotics chance at the very least.

#8 MINE THAT BIRD is simply too slow with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 81. He has never won on dirt, and is overmatched in this spot.

#9 JOIN IN THE DANCE is the probable pacesetter, but he stopped in the Blue Grass, and couldn't hold back Musket Man's determined late surge in the Sam F. Davis. Know him early, but he probably starts backing out of this race at the three-eighths pole.

#11 CHOCOLATE CANDY has never raced on dirt so that's the major x-factor with him. He's bred to handle this distance, and also acts like the additional furlong won't be a problem. Another late-runner that will need luck.

#12 GENERAL QUARTERS has won graded stakes races on both dirt and polytrack, and he kept on trucking to win the Blue Grass last time out. He's a professional sort with some tactical speed, and is the only horse in the race with a previous victory at Churchill Downs. I'm just not sure if he's as good as the top ones, however.

#14 ATOMIC RAIN's best race came when no match for I WANT REVENGE in the Wood. He's eligible for a 'n2L' race somewhere, and looks in over his head in the Derby.

#16 PIONEEROF THE NILE is consistent and hearty, and if he duplicates his synthetic form, he's going to be very, very tough in the Derby. Of course, not one person in this world knows if he's going to be as effective on dirt until he actually races on it. If he goes off at a decent price, and you like Pioneerof the Nile, you owe it to yourself to load up. But, if he goes off as an underlay, you have to try and beat him as you're not supposed to play horses trying something new at short prices.

#17 SUMMER BIRD may have been helped by the hot pace when a rallying third in the Arkansas Derby. He's an interesting colt by Belmont and Travers winner Birdstone, but his lack of speed will put him behind the eight ball on the backstretch.

#18 NOWHERE TO HIDE has been exposed at the graded level, and he didn't do much behind Musket Man in the weak Illinois Derby. He has an outside chance to hit the board with an even performance if some of the others falter.

#20 FLYING PRIVATE is also eligible for an entry-level allowance race, and his best speed figure came over a synthetic track. He'd be a surprise.

Here's my HandiGambling play:

$25 WIN-PLACE Desert Party (#19) - $50
$8 EXACTA BOX Regal Ransom, Dunkirk, Desert Party (#10, #13, #19) - $48

$2 for half of a mint julep
***
For what they're worth, here are some other opinions for the weekend:
Churchill Downs Stakes (Race 6 - Saturday)


Don't think there's a lot of pace in this race, and that may work against likely favorite KODIAK KOWBOY. The Jones-trained sprinter gave a gut-busting effort to win the Carter Handicap last month, and may regress off that hard race. SOK SOK looks logical from closer to the pace, but I'll go with a better price in SPOTSGONE. The six-year-old battled every step of the way in the Fifth Season at Oaklawn last time out only to come up a neck shy. He sandwiched himself between a pair of next-out winners that day, and is making his fourth start since returning from a stress fracture suffered last year. It looks like he's rounding into form, and can be a pace presence despite turning back in distance