Hurlers ripe for getting rocked

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Hurlers ripe for getting rocked

Statistic that compares strikeouts and walks suggests it?s wise to bet against the starting pitchers on this list

Since the publication a few years ago of the handicapping manual ?Betting Baseball: A New Approach,? I have followed a statistical category that author Michael Murray calls ?command rate,? a tool to analyze starting pitchers.

The formula for command rate is simple ? strikeouts divided by walks ? yet effective as a starting point for finding pitchers you might want to bet against.

A pitcher with a rate under 1.0 ? meaning he has walked more batters than he has struck out ? could be ?primed for a fall,? as Murray puts it.

Only pitchers who remain viable members of their starting rotations ? for now, anyway ? were considered when tracking pitchers with poor command rates. Some who would have fit into the category this season if they had not been relegated to mop-up duty (paging Oliver Perez) did not make the cut.

A wide range of factors, of course, goes into handicapping baseball. In compiling a portfolio of starters you would like to fade, however, you could do a lot worse than beginning with the following list of pitchers with command rates under 1.0 this season:

? Trevor Cahill, Athletics. Although he is coming off a solid start Saturday at Seattle, Cahill has walked 18 batters and struck out only eight for a disastrous command rate of .44. He is scheduled to start against the Rangers on Thursday.

? Dana Eveland, Athletics. With 16 walks and 15 strikeouts, Eveland enters today?s game against the Rangers off a rocky start Friday at Seattle in which Oakland lost as a small favorite.

? Matt Palmer, Angels. With five walks and three strikeouts, Palmer technically belongs in this dubious crowd even though he looked strong Saturday leading the Angels past the Yankees as a heavy underdog of plus 240.

? Aaron Laffey, Indians. Scheduled to start Thursday at Boston, Laffey is 2-0 this season despite walking nine and striking out two in his past two starts, and walking 15 and striking out 10 overall.

? Brian Bannister, Royals. Despite a 1.96 ERA, Bannister has walked 10 and struck out seven heading into Thursday?s scheduled start against Seattle.

? Robert Ray, Blue Jays. In his major league debut Saturday against Baltimore, Ray ended up with a no-decision after walking four and striking out two.

? Russ Ortiz, Astros. Thursday?s scheduled start against the Cubs will be the first time for Ortiz in this category this season.

? Daniel Cabrera, Nationals. Cabrera has officially been a ?fade? under this strategy in his past two outings, with Washington losing as an underdog both times. It did not help his cause that he threw four wild pitches Thursday against St. Louis.

? Mike Pelfrey, Mets. Scheduled to face the Phillies? Jamie Moyer at home Thursday, Pelfrey has a 3-0 record despite having issued 13 walks against six strikeouts.

? Graham Taylor, Marlins. Scheduled to start at home today against the Braves, Taylor has walked nine and struck out three in 8 2/3 innings.

? Jeff Karstens, Pirates. After walking five and striking out one in his first start, Karstens has been a ?bet against? pitcher in three consecutive starts under this strategy. The Pirates lost two of those three games. He is scheduled to start Friday against a wild card of sorts in Ken Takahashi of the Mets. Takahashi, 40, became the third player in the post-World War II era to make his major league debut after turning 40, joining Satchel Paige (42, 1948) and Diomedes Olivo (41, 1960).

Speaking of Satchel Paige, if Karstens and the 10 other guys on this list all win their next outings, my stomach will surely dispute me. I?ll have to lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.

 

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The effect of overworked arms

The effect of overworked arms

The effect of overworked arms

Only recently has Sports Illustrated?s Tom Verducci joined Christian Doppler, Pygmalion and Martha Beall Mitchell in the starting rotation of people who have had an ?Effect? named for them.

Yet the so-called Verducci Effect has captured the imagination of baseball fans with a statistical bent, fantasy baseball players and, to a lesser extent, gamblers.

The tool developed and popularized by Verducci aims to identify major league pitchers who are likely to post disappointing stats in the forthcoming season.

According to the Verducci Effect, young pitchers ? 25 or under ? whose workload increased by at least 30 innings pitched from the prior year have a tendency to underperform the next season.

The basis of the indicator is that pitchers of such a tender age often are not physically conditioned to put up those kind of numbers. To paraphrase Verducci, it?s like trying to run a marathon without having built stamina incrementally. In the past couple of seasons, pitchers such as Francisco Liriano, Ian Kennedy and Tom Gorzelanny, among a host of others, have fallen victim to the Effect.

Of the 22 starting pitchers listed on the betting board at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book in regular-season victory over/under wagering, five are candidates to feel the Verducci Effect in 2009.

Betting lines at the Hilton show no clear pattern with regard to the Verducci Effect, and indeed offer opportunities to gamblers who wish to play either ?on? or ?against? it.

Cole Hamels had the largest jump in innings of the five pitchers in question, pitching 262 1/3 innings including postseason play for Philadelphia ? an increase of 72 1/3. The over/under on Hamels? wins in 2009 opened at 15 1/2 with a slight premium on the ?under,? a number consistent with his recent performance. (As always, odds are subject to change.) Hamels won 14 games last year and 15 in 2007.

Chad Billingsley won 16 games last year for the Dodgers yet had a 65-inning increase from the previous season. The over/under on Billingsley for 2009 suggested a bit of a drop-off, opening at 13 1/2 victories.

Jair Jurrjens won 13 games for the Braves last season with an increase of 46 innings pitched, and his opening line of over/under 12 1/2 victories indicates oddsmakers expect a repeat performance.

Mike Pelfrey broke out with 13 wins for the Mets in 2008 but with a jump of 48 innings pitched. The line on Pelfrey opened at over/under 12 1/2 wins for 2009.

San Francisco?s Tim Lincecum will be the most closely watched of the Verducci Effect Five (nongamblers have identified anywhere from seven to 15 pitchers who could be headed for a fall, but the others aren?t on the betting board).

Lincecum, 24, won 18 games and the National League Cy Young Award a year ago, a season in which his workload increased by 49 2/3 innings. Oddsmakers opened the over/under on Lincecum?s 2009 victory total at 15 1/2, even though the Giants, who won 72 games last year, are projected to win 80 this season.

Lincecum?s projected stats also play a role in another season-long proposition at the Hilton, the over/under on the most strikeouts by any pitcher. The line opened at 251 1/2, a total exceeded last year only by Lincecum, who led the majors with 265 strikeouts. A.J. Burnett was the runner-up with 231 strikeouts and Ervin Santana was third with 214.

No one in the majors exceeded 251 1/2 strikeouts in 2005, 2006 or 2007. By contrast, ?over? 251 1/2 would have been a winner for the prior 10 consecutive seasons thanks largely to Randy Johnson, who led the majors in strikeouts in six of those years (and nine times overall in his career).