NBA FRI 050809 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

Hey guys. Tough card for me tonight.

I like both road teams and both unders. Both of the BOS/ORL numbers are moving sideways. It's going to be a board watching afternoon for me. I'll try to lock my play(s) in by 6pm today. I'm looking for the BOS/ORL total to inch it's way back up but may have reached its peak @ 189.5. The C's look good at +5 but I'm thinking the ORL backers may move this up even more for their FRI night plays. Seriously considering the BOS ml but it's a homer play and a gamble.
I see the public agrees on LAL winning this game. I think they also win this game but the total on this game is the toughest for me to cap. So my early leans in order are:

BOS/ORL U189

BOS+5 LAL-1.5

LAL/HOU U194

be back later

BOLTA

 

[Eagle123]

Ax,祝我們好運 !!!

 

[JBrilman]

Hey guys. Tough card for me tonight.

I like both road teams and both unders. Both of the BOS/ORL numbers are moving sideways. It's going to be a board watching afternoon for me. I'll try to lock my play(s) in by 6pm today. I'm looking for the BOS/ORL total to inch it's way back up but may have reached its peak @ 189.5. The C's look good at +5 but I'm thinking the ORL backers may move this up even more for their FRI night plays. Seriously considering the BOS ml but it's a homer play and a gamble.
I see the public agrees on LAL winning this game. I think they also win this game but the total on this game is the toughest for me to cap. So my early leans in order are:

BOS/ORL U189

BOS+5 LAL-1.5

LAL/HOU U194

be back later

BOLTA

Love both plays on Lakers game.

Was leaning Orlando early as they respond well to getting blown out, but Alston out means Rondo will own the paint and create plenty of opportunities for himself and his teammates. I think that makes the Celtics the pick but pushes me to the over as I think Orlando will shoot better at home and Celts will match that...

 

[Crockie]

Boston :toast:

 

[grindstone]

Here you go AX early public #'s

Bost/Orl


Spread Total
Bost 54% 76% Over
Orl 46% 24% Under



LAL/Hou


Spread Total
LAL 74% 60% Over
Hou 26% 40% Under


LAL- 2.5 open and now down to -1.5 and 74% are on the LAL :shrug: . Something is not right here. Loving both sides tonight AX GL Sir

 

[axp59]

Check you email GS and thank you

 

[Griffin8s]

I was working on the total of this C's game this morning and heres what I come up with.

All games are Boston and Orlando

Last 10 gms avg. 185

5 gms just in 08-09 178.4

last 5 gms in Orl. 181

But this is the killer 2 playoff gms 195.5:scared

Makes me believe the under is the play in this game but that last number is the one that worries me. No a far as the sides go Boston +5 how can you not like this number. But I will not forget what happened with D. Howard's Suspen. with Philly as I was on the wrong side of that one. I think we have alot of work to figure out the right side of this one unless you guys see something my dumb ass is missing.:mj07:

 

[joe_shmoe]

Hey guys. Tough card for me tonight.

I like both road teams and both unders. Both of the BOS/ORL numbers are moving sideways. It's going to be a board watching afternoon for me. I'll try to lock my play(s) in by 6pm today. I'm looking for the BOS/ORL total to inch it's way back up but may have reached its peak @ 189.5. The C's look good at +5 but I'm thinking the ORL backers may move this up even more for their FRI night plays. Seriously considering the BOS ml but it's a homer play and a gamble.
I see the public agrees on LAL winning this game. I think they also win this game but the total on this game is the toughest for me to cap. So my early leans in order are:

BOS/ORL U189

BOS+5 LAL-1.5

LAL/HOU U194

be back later

BOLTA

I like the LAL play and here's the reason why. I think that the Lakers are still going to make it into the next round. In order to do so, they have to win one road game, so even if they don't win tonight, you can just chase them into the next round using the ML.

I locked in on this play at -1. I was pretty surprised by the line... I was expecting to see -2.5 to -3. I also like that D. Fish is out. He wasn't doing the LAL any favors.

For the Bos/Orl game, I think Alston being out helps out the under. Just my two cents.

GL Ax.

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore Friday:

Sides Playoffs: 21-29-2
Totals Playoffs: 33-19-2

Orlando by 2.7 and 185.5
Rockets by .7 and 191.5

 

[BIGWave]

The thing that has me worried about this BOS / ORL total is the way the C's have scored on ORL outside of the 1st 2 quarters they have played.
It seems they went into the locker room at the 1st half and figured something out.

Here are the C's scores by quarter from both games:
Game 1 - 19, 17, 26, 28
Game 2 - 26, 35, 25, 26

The 1st game only went under by a few - will the venue change help the under..........???

 

[axp59]

here's some value numbers for any ML action tonight. I've also included possible ML parlay value:

Play
ORL
$140.74 $134.04 $137.39
Play
LAL
$113.60 $102.08 $107.84

Play
ORL/HOU
$46.04 $58.46 $52.25
Play
ORL/LAL
$43.47 $24.48 $33.98

Worst play is BOS/LAL parlay
Worst ML play is BOS

Value calculated @ current numbers and win prob% according to ACCU stats

 

[JBrilman]

here's some value numbers for any ML action tonight. I've also included possible ML parlay value:

Play
ORL
$140.74 $134.04 $137.39
Play
LAL
$113.60 $102.08 $107.84

Play
ORL/HOU
$46.04 $58.46 $52.25
Play
ORL/LAL
$43.47 $24.48 $33.98

Worst play is BOS/LAL parlay
Worst ML play is BOS

Value calculated @ current numbers and win prob% according to ACCU stats

I have BOS ML with LAL -2 100/444

THATS VALUE

 

[Griffin8s]

:topic: I throw this out to you guys to think about. Have a discussion with a fellow worker on Bryant vs. James. As in all around better player. Stats have my back with LBJ but he's arguement is that the west is a tougher conf. Thoughts?

(Ax, I could start this in a new thread if you want. Just want to hear the guys in here opinions first.)

Also, have to "L---" in my play for the first game now and so far only play I see in this game for me is C's +5. BOL everyone!!!:toast:

 

[barts185]

I think the Lakers might get the job done in the game, but I think that Houston starts out strong.

Taking HOU in Q1.

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[axp59]

no prob Gunny.

I'm playing BOS/ORL U and LAL -1.5

BOLTA

 

[mpnyc76]

60-65% on the Celtics (for whatever that's worth,) and the line still went up

 

[sharktank]

Don't know how you win at this level without your point guard? Magic don't have a true court leader without Nelson and now no Alston. Losing 30+min. And a physical player. Lue could be a taken advantage of along with Johnson on def. Watch for lack of Magic ability to double team and defend the high screen. Quuckness of Rondo and shot release quickness of Allen and House.

 

[gamecocks207]

Here is an interesting fact "Garnett has missed 33 Games this year. The "Over" has gone 24-9 (72.7%) in those instances, which includes a 7-2 run currently in this year's playoffs"

 

[grindstone]

Here you go AX early public #'s

Bost/Orl


Spread Total
Bost 54% 76% Over
Orl 46% 24% Under



LAL/Hou


Spread Total
LAL 74% 60% Over
Hou 26% 40% Under


LAL- 2.5 open and now down to -1.5 and 74% are on the LAL :shrug: . Something is not right here. Loving both sides tonight AX GL Sir

Updated numbers


Bost/Orl


Spread Total
Bost 64% 67% Over
Orl 34% 33% Under



B]LAL/Hou[/B]


Spread Total
LAL 68% 52% Over
Hou 32% 48 % Under

GLTA

 

[ari]

I like the LAL play and here's the reason why. I think that the Lakers are still going to make it into the next round. In order to do so, they have to win one road game, so even if they don't win tonight, you can just chase them into the next round using the ML.

I locked in on this play at -1. I was pretty surprised by the line... I was expecting to see -2.5 to -3. I also like that D. Fish is out. He wasn't doing the LAL any favors.

For the Bos/Orl game, I think Alston being out helps out the under. Just my two cents.

GL Ax.

Joe - I use to follow some of your half plays at another site. Any chance you will be posting them on this site?