Updated Record: 47-33 for +43.4 units
Next to last weekend of the regular season. Several plays today to start off the weekend:
LSU -175 (vs. Florida) for 1 unit ? Florida is a hot club right now, especially coming off their sweep of Georgia last weekend. I still don?t think they are a really solid club though and this weekend series at LSU should show that. Florida has shown they are streaky both ways this season and I would not be surprised to see them get swept. LSU has advantages across the board so its worth a small play in my mind.
Georgia Tech -125 (vs. Florida St.) for 2 units ? FSU has won 14 straight but they have all been against pretty suspect competition. I think they are in for a rude awakening this weekend in Atlanta. Florida State is a good offensive club, but Georgia Tech is even better averaging more than 9 runs and 2 HR?s per game while having a team batting avg. of .328. Starting pitching favors Georgia Tech too. Deck McGuire goes for Tech and has some really good stats. He has a 2.51 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; .206 opponents avg. and 88 K?s in 71 2/3 IP. Lefty Sean Gilmartin goes for FSU and though he?s not a power pitcher like McGuire, has some decent results this year. He has a 3.15 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .218 opponents avg. and 62 K?s in 65 2/3 IP. Now I was going to play this for much larger until I read a scouting report that thought Georgia Tech?s power hitting lefties would have trouble against Gilmartin not due to him being a power pitcher but due to how good he throws his breaking ball. Taking that into account I lowered my play as I still feel Tech can get off to a Friday win against the Seminoles.
Oklahoma St. +105 (vs. Oklahoma) for 2 units ? this series is technically neutral as they play tonight?s game at Tulsa and then Sat. and Sun. at Oklahoma City. Sooners definitely have a big advantage offensively. Their pitching has simply not been solid this season and is holding them back from being a top 10 team. Neither of tonight?s starting pitchers have outstanding stats, but I definitely think there is an advantage for Oklahoma St. Oklahoma starts Andrew Doyle. Doyle has a 4.19 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; .264 opponents avg. and 54 K?s in 73 IP. Cowboys go with pre-season All American Oliver who has definitely struggled this year. Oliver has a 4.99 ERA; 1.41 WHIP; .267 opponents avg. and 84 K?s in 70 1/3 IP. A few weeks back he got bumped out of the Friday starting role and since then has responded well and pitched better. I like his strikeout potential against a powerful Sooner offense, but one that strikes out almost 8 times per game. I really believe Oklahoma St. can win this series this weekend to get back on track, but they will need a good pitching performance from Oliver to start them off.
Alabama +100 (vs. Arkansas) for 2 units ? Pitching is pretty even in this one. Both starters (Dallas Keuchel for Arkansas and Austin Hyatt for Alabama) are quality starters but neither will blow you away. I would perhaps give a slight edge to Hyatt. Offense is the main reason for this play as Bama has the better bats and they have been hot as of late. In conference play they have hit .322 as a team and averaged over 8 runs a game. Arkansas is a gritty team but I think Bama can start the weekend off with a win in this one.
Cal State Fullerton -125 (@ Cal Poly) for 5 units ? Big play here but I really like Fullerton in this spot. Poly is ranked 12th in the country and has a unbelievable home field advantage. They are 20-2 on the season and have not lost to a Big West foe on their home turf. Poly?s offense has carried them this season as they have a team avg. of .330 and score just under 9 runs a game. Fullerton has a pretty solid offense too as they have a .318 avg. and scores 7.4 runs per game. All of that is against the #1 SOS in the country. Pitching is the big factor in this one, especially starting pitching. Daniel Renken takes the mound for the Titans and has been really superb recently. He has a 2.27 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; .198 opponents avg. and 63 K?s in 75 1/3 IP. Poly hasn?t officially named a starter, but their normal Friday starter has been DJ Mauldin. Mauldin has a 4.74 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; .306 opponents avg. and 57 K?s in 79 2/3 IP. None of the other Poly starters have better stats than that so it?s doubtful there would be a shakeup in their rotation. As mentioned Poly has an impressive home record and a very good offense, but Fullerton is playing well right now and can match them offensively. When you boil it down to pitching and some of the other intangibles like defense and experience, Fullerton can win this series if not sweep Poly. Rarely will you get Fullerton at a price like this and I?m willing to go with it even if it is on the road against a top 20 club.
More plays than usual for me in one day, but I feel good about them. GL guys.
Next to last weekend of the regular season. Several plays today to start off the weekend:
LSU -175 (vs. Florida) for 1 unit ? Florida is a hot club right now, especially coming off their sweep of Georgia last weekend. I still don?t think they are a really solid club though and this weekend series at LSU should show that. Florida has shown they are streaky both ways this season and I would not be surprised to see them get swept. LSU has advantages across the board so its worth a small play in my mind.
Georgia Tech -125 (vs. Florida St.) for 2 units ? FSU has won 14 straight but they have all been against pretty suspect competition. I think they are in for a rude awakening this weekend in Atlanta. Florida State is a good offensive club, but Georgia Tech is even better averaging more than 9 runs and 2 HR?s per game while having a team batting avg. of .328. Starting pitching favors Georgia Tech too. Deck McGuire goes for Tech and has some really good stats. He has a 2.51 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; .206 opponents avg. and 88 K?s in 71 2/3 IP. Lefty Sean Gilmartin goes for FSU and though he?s not a power pitcher like McGuire, has some decent results this year. He has a 3.15 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .218 opponents avg. and 62 K?s in 65 2/3 IP. Now I was going to play this for much larger until I read a scouting report that thought Georgia Tech?s power hitting lefties would have trouble against Gilmartin not due to him being a power pitcher but due to how good he throws his breaking ball. Taking that into account I lowered my play as I still feel Tech can get off to a Friday win against the Seminoles.
Oklahoma St. +105 (vs. Oklahoma) for 2 units ? this series is technically neutral as they play tonight?s game at Tulsa and then Sat. and Sun. at Oklahoma City. Sooners definitely have a big advantage offensively. Their pitching has simply not been solid this season and is holding them back from being a top 10 team. Neither of tonight?s starting pitchers have outstanding stats, but I definitely think there is an advantage for Oklahoma St. Oklahoma starts Andrew Doyle. Doyle has a 4.19 ERA; 1.22 WHIP; .264 opponents avg. and 54 K?s in 73 IP. Cowboys go with pre-season All American Oliver who has definitely struggled this year. Oliver has a 4.99 ERA; 1.41 WHIP; .267 opponents avg. and 84 K?s in 70 1/3 IP. A few weeks back he got bumped out of the Friday starting role and since then has responded well and pitched better. I like his strikeout potential against a powerful Sooner offense, but one that strikes out almost 8 times per game. I really believe Oklahoma St. can win this series this weekend to get back on track, but they will need a good pitching performance from Oliver to start them off.
Alabama +100 (vs. Arkansas) for 2 units ? Pitching is pretty even in this one. Both starters (Dallas Keuchel for Arkansas and Austin Hyatt for Alabama) are quality starters but neither will blow you away. I would perhaps give a slight edge to Hyatt. Offense is the main reason for this play as Bama has the better bats and they have been hot as of late. In conference play they have hit .322 as a team and averaged over 8 runs a game. Arkansas is a gritty team but I think Bama can start the weekend off with a win in this one.
Cal State Fullerton -125 (@ Cal Poly) for 5 units ? Big play here but I really like Fullerton in this spot. Poly is ranked 12th in the country and has a unbelievable home field advantage. They are 20-2 on the season and have not lost to a Big West foe on their home turf. Poly?s offense has carried them this season as they have a team avg. of .330 and score just under 9 runs a game. Fullerton has a pretty solid offense too as they have a .318 avg. and scores 7.4 runs per game. All of that is against the #1 SOS in the country. Pitching is the big factor in this one, especially starting pitching. Daniel Renken takes the mound for the Titans and has been really superb recently. He has a 2.27 ERA; 1.02 WHIP; .198 opponents avg. and 63 K?s in 75 1/3 IP. Poly hasn?t officially named a starter, but their normal Friday starter has been DJ Mauldin. Mauldin has a 4.74 ERA; 1.49 WHIP; .306 opponents avg. and 57 K?s in 79 2/3 IP. None of the other Poly starters have better stats than that so it?s doubtful there would be a shakeup in their rotation. As mentioned Poly has an impressive home record and a very good offense, but Fullerton is playing well right now and can match them offensively. When you boil it down to pitching and some of the other intangibles like defense and experience, Fullerton can win this series if not sweep Poly. Rarely will you get Fullerton at a price like this and I?m willing to go with it even if it is on the road against a top 20 club.
More plays than usual for me in one day, but I feel good about them. GL guys.
