Orlando even, but will they recover mentally?

Lumi

LOKI
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Orlando even, but will they recover mentally?

People who don?t watch sports will never get it. There are those moments in sports that transcend meaning; it goes to a different level, otherworldly. LeBron James gave the city of Cleveland something it hasn?t had much of, hope. By now you have seen James? shot a couple of hundred times and it is as marvelous and unbelievable as was live the first time. No nickname has really stuck with LeBron, be in King James and a few others, but on the number he?s picked for himself (23), the ?Chosen One? might well be the best of all.

His Game 2 winning shot will take on greater meaning if Cleveland can find a way to at least win the Eastern Conference, which is far less a sure thing than it was Wednesday night before the series opener.

I?ve been scratching my head wondering why everyone in Orlando is blaming themselves for James making shot. Coach Stan Van Gundy took the blame, but never said exactly why. Mickael Pietrus joined in the blame-game and was equally unclear what he did wrong, since he wasn?t assigned to guard James in the first place. If anybody is to be blamed it?s Hedu Turkoglu, not for not guarding LeBron tighter, since he and teammates has already taken away dunk opportunity, but for not taking more time off the clock with what SEEMED like game winning shot with a second to go.

Sometimes you can do everything right and the ball just goes in the cylinder.

The Orlando bench and players were visibly shaken, but this isn?t their first jolt in the playoffs. Coach Van Gundy only needs to remind his squad; they absorbed haymakers from Andre Iguodala and Ray Allen and still came out on top in two prior series. The Magic have proven the Cavaliers are not superior to them by any stretch and Turkoglu was defiant after heart-breaking loss.

"They make a last-second shot and seeing them celebrating, it means we are in their heads," he said. "I guarantee it's going to be a ballgame difference when we go back to Orlando in front of our home-court fans." The Magic return home 12-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games.

The last seven minutes of Game 2, likely set the table for this contest and rest assured neither Mickey nor Minny Mouse will want any part of this action in downtown Orlando. In the closing minutes, it looked like RAW from the WWE, with bodies flying everywhere, accept this wasn?t scripted. With the intensity rising minute by minute, the Magic are 16-5 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog and they will be laying in wait.

Cleveland is on 11-2-1 ATS run, however are just 2-10 ATS vs. teams having won 70 percent or more of their games. The Cavaliers are finding out what TNT analyst Doug Collins said to be true about Orlando, ?Leads of 15 points for or against Orlando don?t mean much, with how they shoot the three.? Cleveland?s defense has been exposed when they can?t pack it in, with the Magic having quickness edges at different spots in open space.

When the series began, it did not appear Orlando would be a favorite, but after two impressive contests, Sportsbook.com has them as 1.5-point choice with total of 189.5. Based on the past, this could work in Cleveland?s favor, since they are 22-9 ATS as road underdogs of less than five points. Conversely, the Magic have been not be magical in this spot, sporting 5-15 ATS record when favored by less than five points at Amway Arena.

This swing game will start at 8:35 Eastern on TNT, with Orlando 12-1 ATS in last 13 meeting with Cavs, including 5-1 against the spread on home floor.
 

Lumi

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Game 3, Cavs at Magic

Game 3, Cavs at Magic

Game 3, Cavs at Magic
May 23, 2009


The 2008-09 NBA Playoffs have had its share of dramatics and it continued on Friday in Cleveland, when the Cavaliers edged the Magic, 96-95, as LeBron James drilled a 3-pointer at the buzzer. The victory not only tied the Eastern Conference Finals at 1-1 but it more than likely salvaged the best-of-seven series and season for the Cavs.
The last-second play was designed to be a lob to the basket but Orlando defended well and James improvised. The catch-and-shoot will go down as one of the biggest shots in NBA history and easily the biggest ever for the Cleveland franchise.

James led the team with 35 points for the second straight game after dropping 49 in Game 1?s loss on Wednesday. Even though the Cavs knotted up the series, some pundits believe that the Magic are the better team.

?There is no doubt that LeBron is arguably the most talented player in the league but his supporting cast is average and they?re showing their true colors in this series, which makes LeBron look even better. The bench and the coaching are starting to look like weaknesses as well.?



For the second straight game, the Cavaliers were outscored in the second-half by 11 after leading by as many as 23 points in the first two quarters. In Game 1, the Magic outscored the Cavs by 16 in the second-half, helping gamblers cover the number in both contests.

The Magic outscored the Cavs? bench 26-14 in Game 2 and 25-5 in Game 1. Mickeal Pietrus has been a big boost for Stan Van Gundy?s team, posting 23 points in the first two games.

While Cleveland has relied on LeBron, the Magic have three legit players in Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu that can fill it up on a nightly basis. Turkoglu finished with 21 points in Game 2 and was almost the hero after his last bucket gave the Cavs a 95-93 lead before James? big-shot.

Van Gundy shouldered the blame for the late bucket, the second time he?s done so this postseason. , ?As much heat as Shaq and others have given Stan Van Gundy, its not deserving at all. The guy can flat out coach just like his brother Jeff. What you have to love about this team is they don?t give up and his adjustments at the break have outclassed Mike Brown.?

After going 7-1 against the spread and winning every contest by double digits in its first eight playoff games, Cleveland has failed to cover in its last two. The oddsmakers and the betting public have taken notice and for the first time in a long time, the Cavs have been made underdogs.

Orlando opened as a 1 ?-point favorite for Game 3, while the total is sitting at 190 points. Is the line fair or too big of an adjustment?

?The Magic have been favored in every home playoff game so I?m not surprised to see the short price plus they?ve shown the public that King James? crew is suspect. And, the Cavs lost both regular season trips to the Magic Kingdom, one time by 29 points,?

Cleveland dominated the Pistons and Hawks in the first two playoff rounds on the road, which produced a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record, only failing to cover Game 4 in Atlanta by a point.

Orlando has gone 4-2 both SU and ATS at home in the playoffs, losing both games on buzzer beaters courtesy of the 76ers? Andre Iguodala and the Celtics? Big Baby Davis. Put simply, when the Magic win they cover too.

Cleveland owns a record of 4-6 ATS as a road underdog this year, while Orlando is 10-4 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less.

The first two games went ?over? in this series, plus the first quarter and the first half have been solid ?over? winners too. The number could be a tad inflated and bettors should note that the ?under? has gone 4-2 in Orlando?s home playoff games. The Cavs have watched the 'under' go 3-1 in their four road playoff tilts.

The series price still has Cleveland listed as a favorite (-330) albeit much smaller than the opening series price (-600). Gamblers who are looking to back Orlando in what?s now become a best-of-five can find a price of plus-250 (Bet $100 to win $250) odds.

TNT will continue its coverage of the Eastern Conference Finals, airing Game 3 at 8:35 p.m. EDT.
 

RowdyRider

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Orlando doesn't need to recover mentally, Cleveland does.

Orlando has already won the mental game. Cleveland knows that Orlando has figured them out, and Cleveland has to change their lineup and go different from what got them to where they are.

Orlando really might win this in 5, but I say they win it in 6...
 

Lumi

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Cavaliers at Magic

Cavaliers at Magic

Cavaliers at Magic

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-1.5, 190)

Do you believe in Magic?

The Magic proved they are a championship-caliber contender by winning Game 7 in Boston last round, taking Game 1 in Cleveland earlier in the week, and coming within a second of holding a 2-0 lead against the Cavaliers. Orlando is a team learning how good it can be. It is 11-9 in its last 20 games ATS, but 7-3 ATS in the past 10.

Be careful against picking the favorite, though. They are 0-4 ATS in the third round and just 2-2 SU. Last round, however, the favorites were 3-1 ATS in Game 3?s

Defense or Offense?

The first two games between Orlando and Cleveland make it very difficult to predict if these teams will try to outscore or stop each other.

Game 1 featured 213 total points, smashing the total of 184. The second game, however, was much more defense oriented. The teams combined for just 191 points, but it still was more than enough to push it past the total of 188.5.

With both team?s preferring to play lower-scoring games ? Cleveland is 4-6 O/U and Orlando is 6-9 O/U ? defense figures to eventually become a focus of the series.

And look for the teams to settle into that defensive mode Sunday. The under has hit in Cleveland?s past four road games and Orlando has gone under the total in 26 of its past 36 home games as a home favorite. The over, however, is 11-5-1 in the team?s past 17 games in Orlando.

Matchups matter

So nothing gets older than hearing Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Chris Webber on TNT continually harp on matchups being the deciding factor in playoff series.

But they are right.

Cleveland still is favored to reach the NBA Finals, but the Magic give the Cavs fits. Cleveland is 1-12 ATS against the Magic in the team?s past 13 meetings and 1-5 ATS in its past six trips to the Sunshine State. In two games in Orlando this season, the Magic covered as five-point favorites in a 99-88 win early in the year and again as 3.5-point favorites in a 116-87 blowout last month.

The biggest issue for Cleveland appears to be its inability to find a way to guard Dwight Howard (20.6 ppg, 13.8 rpg), or at least keep him away from the basket. Orlando also is doing a great job at forcing the rest of the Cavaliers to make difficult, contested jump shots.

The LeBron Rules

So how do teams stop LeBron James?

?The Chosen One? averaged 28.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg and 7.2 apg as the Cavaliers were streaking through the postseason prior to their loss in Game 1. In the loss, all LeBron did was score 49 points, grab six rebounds and hand out eight assists. Following the game, Magic coach Stan Van Gundy admitted he had ?no idea? how to guard James.

That showed at the end of Game 2, when he took Mickael Pietrus off of James and allowed Hedo Turkoglu to guard him with a second left.

The result: A game-winning 3-pointer by The King and lots of second guessing. Pietrus appeared to be causing trouble for James, holding the league?s MVP to just four fourth-quarter points prior to the game winner. If Van Gundy doesn?t figure out how to stop or at least slow down James, who had 35 points on Friday night, the series could be over quickly.

"The way they were celebrating, it was good, man,? Turkoglu told reporters. ?They win and they celebrate, and it means we're in their heads. So it's all on us now, and how we play in front of our fans.?

Other key numbers:
- Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games
- The Magic are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win
- The under is 16-7 in the Cavaliers last 23 playoff games as an underdog
- The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the team?s past 13 games
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Sunday's best NBA bets

Sunday's best NBA bets

Sunday's best NBA bets

Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-1.5, 190)

For all the drama and emotion surrounding the riveting shot, the Cavaliers have plenty to fix if they want to reclaim home-court advantage when the series shifts to Orlando for Game 3 on Sunday night.

The Magic ripped their defense apart, exposed their lack of depth and roared back from a double-digit deficit for the second straight game. Now the NBA's top-seeded team heads to Orlando, where it lost both games this season, including a 29-point blowout in April in which it trailed by as many as 41.

But one shot made all of that seem like a distant memory.

''To go on the road, 1 second from being down 0-2, going to Orlando and from zero seconds the shot goes in to being 1-1 going on the road, it is a good feeling for us,'' James said. ''We can carry this momentum.''

It's an all too familiar feeling for Orlando.

The Magic have been last-second losers four times this postseason. Boston's Glen Davis hit a jumper as time expired in Game 4 of their second-round series. Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young each hit a shot in the final seconds for wins in the opening round, forcing the Magic to again watch another team celebrate as they walked slowly to the locker room in defeat.

Any carry-over seems unlikely.

Orlando responded well after each of the previous heartbreakers, winning the following games against Philadelphia and nearly taking Game 5 against the Celtics before blowing a big fourth-quarter lead.

''How many times have I been asked that in the postseason so far?'' coach Stan Van Gundy said. ''Game 1 in Philly we lose at the buzzer. Is there going to be carry-over? OK. Game 3 in Philly, they beat us at the buzzer. Is there going to be carry-over? Game 4 against Boston, is there going to be carry-over? I mean, you know, I've heard that the entire postseason.''

Pick: Orlando -1.5
 

Lumi

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Trends - Cleveland at Orlando

Trends - Cleveland at Orlando

Trends - Cleveland at Orlando

ATS Trends

Cleveland
Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.
Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Cavaliers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win.
Cavaliers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
Cavaliers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Cavaliers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. Eastern Conference.
Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.
Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Cavaliers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games.
Cavaliers are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Cavaliers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following a ATS loss.
Cavaliers are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Cavaliers are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. NBA Southeast.
Cavaliers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Orlando


Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Central.
Magic are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Magic are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Magic are 50-21-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a S.U. loss.
Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games.
Magic are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.


OU Trends

Cleveland
Over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 Conference Finals games.
Over is 4-0-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-2 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 6-2 in Cavaliers last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 38-13-1 in Cavaliers last 52 Sunday games.
Under is 16-7 in Cavaliers last 23 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 28-13-1 in Cavaliers last 42 games playing on 1 days rest.


Orlando

Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 6-1 in Magic last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 10-2 in Magic last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 5-1 in Magic last 6 Sunday games.
Over is 4-1 in Magic last 5 vs. NBA Central.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 home games.
Under is 6-2 in Magic last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 26-10 in Magic last 36 games as a home favorite.
Under is 15-6 in Magic last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 17-7 in Magic last 24 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 22-10 in Magic last 32 overall.


Head to Head

Over is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Orlando.
Road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Orlando.
Cavaliers are 1-12 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
 
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