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Book: Sharp money fading Yankees for ESPN matchup

New York Yankees (26-20) at Texas Rangers (27-18)

Line/Total: Game opened at Yankees -140 and 11 runs (over -115). Early this morning we received wise action on Rangers at +130. No sharp action on the total thus far. It still remains at 11 runs (over-115), while the Yankees are now -135.

Injury Report: None

Who's Hot: Yankees' Mark Teixeira has hit three home runs over his past five games, including last night against the team where he began his career.

Who's Not: Rangers' Marlon Byrd is just 1-for-12 lifetime against A.J. Burnett.

Comments: Tuesday's game between the two teams did not finish until 12:30 a.m. local time due to a 2 ? hour rain delay. After winning his first two decisions, AJ Burnett is looking for his third win on the season. Burnett has given up at least five earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Texas? Derek Holland makes his second career start (last Friday he went 5 2/3 innings, allowing three runs, and striking out four batters. With all the big bats New York has, this will be a stiff test for the young but productive Texas pitching staff.

74 percent of moneyline action are on New York

82 percent of runline bets are on Yanks

63 percent of bets on total are on over

Prop of the Game: Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) Will He Record a Home Run. No -320/Yes +240.

 

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Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays)

Roy Halladay has had plenty of success against the Baltimore Orioles during his career, but there's an added sense of urgency when he next faces them.

Halladay will try to help the Toronto Blue Jays salvage one victory during this nine-game road trip as he looks to win his 10th consecutive decision and 20th overall against the Orioles in the finale of a three-game set on Wednesday.

The eight-game slide has dropped the Blue Jays (27-22) from first to third in the AL East. They have a good chance of getting back in the win column with Halladay (8-1, 2.52 ERA).

The 2003 AL Cy Young Award winner improved to 19-4 with a 2.88 ERA against the Orioles (20-26) on May 1 after allowing four runs - three earned - and 10 hits over eight innings of an 8-4 victory.

"I think everybody would like to have about 10 Docs around," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said after that start. "But that's impossible. We do have one, so we've got to enjoy him."

Overall, Halladay, who is tied with Kansas City's Zack Greinke for the major league lead in victories, has won his last five decisions. The Toronto right-hander failed to earn one, though, against Atlanta on Friday despite pitching seven scoreless innings.

He gave up five hits and struck out six, but the Jays fell 1-0.

Halladay has benefited from a lot of run support when he's pitched against the Orioles, but he might not have that advantage in this game. Toronto, which averaged 7.5 runs in his last 11 starts against Baltimore, has been held to 13 during this road trip after a 7-2 loss Tuesday.

Rick Porcello (Detroit Tigers)

It only took a handful of games for Detroit Tigers rookie Rick Porcello to become comfortable pitching in the majors.

Porcello looks to win his fifth straight start Wednesday in the finale of a three-game series with the Kansas City Royals.

After spending 2008 at Class-A Lakeland in the Florida State league, Porcello (5-3 3.55 ERA) overcame a rough start to his first season in the majors - 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in April - to dominate during this month. He's won his last four starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, allowing three runs over 24 innings.

Porcello gave up one run and six hits over six innings of a 4-3 victory over Colorado on Friday to match Dave Rozema's 1977 team record for consecutive wins by a pitcher 20 years and under. Porcello doesn't turn 21 until December.

"I still think there's a lot of things I can improve on," he said.

A win Wednesday would make Porcello the first major leaguer 20 years old or younger to win five consecutive starts since Dwight Gooden in 1985 with the Mets.

Porcello, though, struggled against Kansas City in his third big-league start on April 24, surrendering five runs over six innings of a 6-1 loss. He gave up two home runs in that start as he was beaten by Zach Greinke.

Porcello at least won't have to worry about outdoing Greinke, who notched his eighth victory and fifth complete game in the Royals' 6-1 win over Detroit on Tuesday.

Slumping

A.J. Burnett (New York Yankees)

The Yankees, who are one game behind East-leading Boston, look to rebound from their third loss in five games and hope A.J. Burnett (2-2, 5.28) can win for the first time since April 14.

The right-hander joined New York in December after signing an $82.5 million, five-year contract, but has struggled recently. He's 0-2 with a 6.04 ERA in his last seven starts after winning his first two starts with a 2.70 ERA.

Burnett saw his first pitch go leave the yard on Friday, as he matched his career high by serving up two more while surrendering five runs and eight hits with seven strikeouts in six innings of a 7-3 loss to Philadelphia.

"It's a matter of executing every pitch," Burnett told the Yankees' official Web site about a flaw in his delivery. "We'll work on it in the bullpen and be consistent, and take care of it. The good thing is I know how to fix it. ... If I didn't know what was the problem, I'd be worried."

Burnett is 1-2 with a 4.72 ERA in six games - five starts - against Texas, including 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA in three starts at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Daisuke Matsuzaka (Boston Red Sox)

Matsuzaka was instrumental to Boston's success last season by going 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, but has struggled through three starts this year.

In his first start since coming off the disabled list because of right arm fatigue, Matsuzaka allowed four runs and five hits while throwing 80 pitches in five innings of a 5-3 loss to the New York Mets on Friday. The right-hander was placed on the DL on April 15, one day after he was tagged for five runs and five hits in one inning at Oakland.

While the Red Sox have lost all three of Matsuzaka's starts this season, they've won all three of his outings against the Twins. Matsuzaka is 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in those games.

Debuting

Zach Jackson (Cleveland Indians)

The Rays will try to end their slide against Zach Jackson (0-0, 5.79 ERA), who was recalled Tuesday and will make his first start of the season. The left-hander made two relief outings for the Indians before being optioned to Triple-A Columbus on April 21.

In seven appearances, including four starts with the Clippers, Jackson went 3-2 with a 3.09 ERA. He's 4-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 16 career major league starts.

This will be Jackson's first appearance against the Rays.

Burke Badenhop (Florida Marlins)

Florida could use steady play from whoever is on the field Wednesday with Burke Badenhop (2-2, 5.75) set to make his first start since June 3. Badenhop, who has made 11 relief appearances this season, is getting a start with injuries and inconsistency hurting the Marlins' rotation.

The right-hander went 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA as a starter last year. He's faced the Phillies twice - both in relief - surrendering one run and two hits in 3 2-3 innings.

Badenhop will face a Phillies lineup that is batting .281 with 20 home runs while averaging 6.0 runs over its last 12 games, winning nine.

 

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Wednesday's best MLB bets

Wednesday's best MLB bets

Wednesday's best MLB bets

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-210, 9)

Jered Weaver and the Angels will try to avoid being swept in a three-game home series for the first time in nearly two years when they face the White Sox on Wednesday night.

Weaver (3-2, 2.52 ERA) is winless in his last three starts, but a matchup with Chicago (21-24) could be coming at the perfect time. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA in four starts against the White Sox - all wins for the Angels (23-22). He pitched 15 scoreless innings against Chicago in 2008, allowing four hits in two Los Angeles victories.

Weaver has given up five runs over 20 innings in his last three starts, but the Angels have lost two of those games. He allowed one run and eight hits over five innings of a 3-1 loss to the Dodgers on Friday.

The Angels hope to avoid their second three-game skid this month after following Monday's 17-3 loss with a 4-2 defeat on Tuesday.

Los Angeles' bullpen took a big hit Tuesday when Scot Shields was placed on the 15-day disabled list with patella tendinitis in his left knee. Shields, whose 42 wins as a reliever are the most in franchise history, has given up runs in eight of his 20 appearances, and has three losses and three blown saves.

The White Sox, meanwhile, have won six of eight thanks to some vastly improved pitching. Excluding a 20-1 loss to Minnesota last Thursday, the starters are 6-1 with a 1.68 ERA during that stretch after going 0-5 with a 7.88 ERA in the previous eight games.

Gavin Floyd (3-4, 6.54) takes the mound after snapping a five-game winless streak with his best start of the season. Floyd was 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA over his previous three starts before giving up two hits in eight innings of a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh on Friday.

Pick: White Sox

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (+145, 8.5)

The way the San Diego Padres have played of late, Jake Peavy might want to seriously consider staying with the only team he's ever pitched for during his stellar major league career.

With the latest trade talks behind him, Peavy tries for a third straight victory while looking to help the Padres bounce back from their first loss in almost two weeks in Wednesday night's series finale against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

Peavy (4-5, 3.48 ERA) allowed two hits and struck out 10 while walking four in six innings of a 4-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs on Friday.

It came one day after the 2007 Cy Young Award winner vetoed a trade to the White Sox. He reiterated after the game that staying with the Padres (23-23), who lost 6-5 Tuesday to snap their 10-game winning streak, is the right thing to do "right now."

Peavy, who gave up a run and struck out eight in a complete-game 3-1 win over Cincinnati on May 17, is 11-12 with a 4.71 ERA in 27 starts against the Diamondbacks (20-26). He yielded two runs while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings of a 3-1 loss to them on May 6.

Billy Buckner (1-0, 6.35) takes the ball after allowing one run and five hits in 7 1-3 innings of a 2-1 victory at Oakland on Friday in his first start since 2007.

The right-hander made 10 relief appearances for Arizona in 2008, and three this season before being sent to the minors.

Pick: Padres

 

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Wednesday's MLB Preview

Wednesday's MLB Preview

Wednesday's MLB Preview

If you?re the Padres, Yankees or the Tigers then things are looking good as we flip the script to mid-week matchups. But if you?re dropping games like the Cubs or struggling to find the formula that made a club like the Blue Jays successful then maybe its time to change strategy.

Either way you look at it there are teams out there that can appeal to backers or those gamblers looking for the sharpest fade play. Wednesday will bring with it several games that could help fatten our wallets.

Toronto at Baltimore ? 1:35 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays are experiencing what can best be described as road woes. Getting swept in three-game series between both Boston and Atlanta, Toronto is hoping that it can stop the bleeding before it finds itself digging a deeper ditch.

The good news for those looking to squeeze out some bucks, look no further then dominant right-hander, Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.52 ERA). The career, 3.48 ERA slinger hasn?t lost a game against Baltimore since May 4, 2005. But more importantly Halladay is 28-12 since Opening Day of last year, hasn?t allowed more then one earned run in his last four starts and has pitched seven innings or more in every start this season.

While Halladay has been spot on, let?s not overlook Toronto?s offensive output. During the ace?s trips to the mound bats inside the box have been outstanding, producing a team high, 6.8 runs per start. But not so fast. During the eight-game free fall, the Blue Jays have scratched together just 1.6 runs per game overall. That's no where near the 5.7 runs per game produced during the first 41 games of the season.

Despite the Jays dropping eight straight, looking for value in this match could be a difficult proposition (in-fact a price of -160 has been manufactured by most books in this contest). In his last three road outings, Halladay has seen prices of -147, -152 and -168 in ascending order.

Toronto is 19-3 in Halladay?s last 22 starts versus Baltimore.

In terms of totals, Camden Yards has played a role in low scoring games. It?s Park Factor on the year is sitting at .910 (as a refresher, above 100 is a hitters park and below 100 favors pitchers). In support, the Orioles are now 10-5 on the ?under? in their last 15 home stands.


Baltimore is attempting to recover from a damaging road stint for which the club churned out a 4-6 record in its last 10 away from home. Lefty starter Rich Hill (1-0, 3.18) is coming off a no-decision in Washington last Friday, allowing three hits and two earned runs in 5.2 innings. Right-handers are teeing off on Hill for a .290 BA, but his command of the strike zone has been steadily improving. This will be Hill?s first career start versus the Blue Jays.

A total of 8 1/2-runs has been installed.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland ? 7:05 p.m. ET

It?s been almost two full days since the Rays squandered a 10-4 lead heading into the ninth inning against the Tribe. There?s no question that this loss should weigh heavily on the club in the near future. But should we be surprised over Monday?s scenario?

Tampa Bay?s bullpen is a shadow of what it was in 2008. Through 47 games, the pen is 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA. This hurts backers? wallets as the Rays last three losses have been determined by exactly one run. The last seven defeats have been decided by no more then three runs in any one contest.

Having faced off five times already this season, Tampa Bay leads the head-to-head action, 3-2. The Rays have been installed as favorites in every game this season. A contest played on May 16 witnessed the highest price tag in this exchange. Tampa closed the boards as $1.75 favorites, eventually taking that contest 4-2 thanks to Matt Garza giving up just five hits.

A streak that just can?t be ignored is the Rays going ?over? the total in six straight and 12 times in the last 14. What we have is a team scoring 7.4 and giving up 5.6 runs per game during this stretch.

Combine the above with the fact that Cleveland is 7-3 on the ?over? in the last 10 and expectations for books to adjust the opening total are expected. In the last five head-to-head meetings, the ?over? is 4-1 (and 8-4 in the last 12).

One factor that can?t be ignored is Tampa losing second baseman Akinori Iwamura for the season. His .310 BA and 16 RBIs will be missed. Iwamura was injured during a 5-4 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. Can Willy Aybar, Ben Zobrist and/or Reid Brignac come close to producing offensive numbers that Iwamura departed with? That answer seems like an unlikely ?no? at this point and time.

The pitching matchup in this contest will have Tampa Bay sending out Andy Sonnanstine (3-4, 6.60) onto the hill. Next in line for the Indians will be left-hander, David Huff (0-1, 17.55). Huff has been torched in only two starts this season, allowing 13 runs off 14 hits in a total of 6.2 innings.

The Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 meetings in Cleveland.

San Diego at Arizona ? 9:40 p.m. ET

Based on Tuesday night?s results, the Padres will either be attempting to stretch their winning streak to 12 games or, at the very least, challenging themselves to continue building on positive momentum.

Jake Peavy (4-5, 3.48) is slated to toe the slab for San Diego after last week?s news of a possible trade to the White Sox fell through the floor. Peavy says he's very much comfortable tossing in the Bay area. The ace of the staff is now 2-1 in his last three starts, covering his team by allowing an average of 2.3 runs pre game. His 4-5 overall record isn?t much of a surprise, especially based on the fact that an offense batting a league worst, .234 has supplied their No. 1 starter with 2.9 runs of support per start.

Surprisingly, Peavy hasn?t had much success against the Diamondbacks. In his 27 career starts versus Arizona, Peavy is 11-12, garnering a 4.71 ERA. San Diego has opened holes in the pockets of backers by going 4-9 in the ace?s last 13 starts when pitted against the D-Backs.

Despite a 5-2 performance in its last seven, Arizona finds itself six games below the .500 mark. A 10-16 home record has been damaging for divisional placement (this coming from a team that was 50-31 at home at the end of the ?07 season). Batting one point (.235) higher then San Diego isn?t something to celebrate. And a bullpen tossing softballs for a 5.07 ERA is embarrassing.

In just three of the last 10 games has the Diamondbacks passed through the window as betting favorites. If being installed as a $1.60 underdog against Florida on May 19 isn?t enough evidence to deem this club ?in trouble? then losing as $1.46 favorites in Oakland should take the cake.

Arizona is expected to pencil in Billy Buckner (1-0, 6.35) into the rotation on Wednesday.

The Padres are 5-1 in their last six games versus the D-Backs dating back to August of last year.

Most books have placed San Diego as a $1.52 visiting favorite, supporting that the expectations for Peavy are quite high. The run total can be had for nine runs, making this the third straight head-to-head contest that the same total has been set.

 

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AL Breakdown

AL Breakdown

AL Breakdown


Bettors don?t have a lot to look forward to on Thursday with just three games on the board in the American League. All three contests feature clubs that are just trying to find a spark to get them jumpstarted for the rest of the season or looking to keep themselves atop their respective divisions.

The plus side for us is there are some teams that are worth fading and maybe even a couple of totals we can exploit.

Tampa Bay at Cleveland ? 12:05 p.m. EDT

The Rays are finding out just how tough it is to repeat after winning the AL pennant last season. Tampa Bay has dropped three straight games as they sit five games out of first place in AL East.

Even worse for Joe Maddon?s club is that they?ve not only lost second baseman Akinori Iwamura for the year with a torn ACL, but now shortstop Jason Bartlett is on the disabled list with a sprained left ankle.

Tampa Bay will be looking to turn the tide with right-hander Jeff Neimann (4-3, 4.53) getting the starting nod. The 26-year old hurler took his lumps at the beginning of the year by dropping his first two starts, but appears to have found his touch. Neimann is 4-1 with a 3.99 earned run average in his last seven outings. And the club has won six of his last seven starts, with the ?over? posting a similar record.

Both ?over? bettors and Neimann should keep a close eye on the Rays? bullpen?Or as I like to call them, the comedy of errors. Tampa Bay has seen the ?pen post an unconscionable 8.87 ERA over the last two games. That number could have been a lot worse if you could have counted the three unearned runs that crossed home plate in that 11-10 debacle on Memorial Day.



Tampa?s bats come alive when Neimann takes the mound, averaging 9.75 runs in his last four starts. I guess we shouldn?t be too surprised as the Rays lead the majors with 274 runs scored this season.

Despite that offensive output we saw on Monday, Progressive Field has been a den of low scores recently. The ?under? is 5-3 in Cleveland?s last eight home fixtures.

The Indians will send David Huff (0-1, 17.55 ERA) out to the hill to close out this four-game set. This game will be a tough one for Tribe fans to watch as Huff hasn?t last four innings in either of his starts this year. His first go round came at Tropicana Field on May 17, where he promptly was torched for seven earned runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings. Luckily for him is that Bartlett won?t be in the lineup this time around after going three-for-four in that contest.

Most sportsbooks have installed the Rays as $1.20 road faves (risk $120 to win $100) with the total coming in at 11.


Tampa Bay has done well in day games this season, going 8-7. Cleveland, on the other hand, is just 8-13 when playing under the sun.

Boston at Minnesota ? 1:10 p.m. EDT

Baseball is a game of peaks and valleys. Currently, the Red Sox are taking a detour to the valley right now having dropped three of their last five matches. Despite the slump, Boston is still sitting one game ahead of the Yankees for the AL East lead.

Boston will be looking to Josh Beckett (4-2, 5.01 ERA) to get them back on track. He pitched a gem in his last outing on May 23 at home against the Mets. Beckett tossed eight full innings with five hits and one unearned run on that night as the Sox fell 3-2 as $2.00 home faves. It won?t be hard to side with him as the Red Sox are 3-1 in his last four starts, while he compiled a 2-0 mark with a 2.67 ERA.

Beckett has definitely benefitted from lively bats during the season as the Red Sox are scoring 7.92 runs every time he takes the mound. Boston ranks fourth in Major League Baseball with a team batting average of .278 this season. Now if they can just get David Ortiz back on the juice to improve his .197 average.

Minnesota will be sending out its latest pitching stud in Anthony Swarzak (1-0, 0.00 ERA). The rookie right-hander sprinkled five hits over seven shutout innings with a pair of strikeouts as the Twins won as $1.20 home favorites on May 23, 6-2.

If there is one thing that Swarzak can depend on is that the Twins? bats are dialed in right now. Minnesota is averaging 8.14 runs scored over its last seven matches. They?ve also hit a home run in nine consecutive ballgames, the first time they?ve done this since July 2002.

Most betting shops have tabbed Boston as a $1.15 road ?chalk? with total rolling out at nine. This is the fourth time in Minnesota?s last five games that the total was set at nine.

As great as Swarzak did for the Twins in his debut, it?s tough to back him plus-105 home pup. The reason being is that Minnesota is just 7-11 in the last three seasons against the Red Sox.

Detroit at Baltimore ? 7:05 p.m. EDT

The Tigers might be setting atop the AL Central, but they?re struggling right now as evidenced by three losses in their last four games.

Detroit can?t be upset with its starting pitching as they?ve thrown 25.1 innings over the last four games with a respectable ERA of 3.22.

What has been a thorn in the Motor City Kitty?s side is their hitting. Outside of a 13-run output on May 25, Detroit has scored five runs in its last three losses. One of those defeats did come against Kansas City?s Zach Greinke, who is pitching like a man possessed right now.

Armando Galarraga (3-4, 5.74 ERA) takes the hill for the Tigers on Thursday night. He?ll just be looking to get a positive mark for himself since he hasn?t won a start since April 26 at Kansas City. And Detroit is 1-4 in his last five outings.

Galarraga has allowed at least four runs in his last five starts. Normally you?d think that would make him a reasonable ?over? play, but you?d be wrong. The lack of offense has seen the ?under? go on a 3-1 run for Galarraga.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has opened the line for this game with the Orioles as $1.10 home favorites with a total of 10 ?.

That total might seem a bit high, but you have to take into consideration that Baltimore will most likely be sending out David Hernandez to toe the slab.

Don?t feel bad if you don?t know who he is since this will be Hernandez?s first start in the big leagues this season. He?s actually been one of the O?s better pitchers at AAA Norfolk this year with a 3-1 record to match a 2.91 ERA.

If we?re looking at recent outings, then Baltimore has the advantage. The Orioles have gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings. The ?over? went 5-2 last season between these clubs with the total setting up in the single-digits just once.

 

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NL Breakdown

NL Breakdown

NL Breakdown

The skinny, five-gamer on Thursday may not pack an A-bomb worth of continuous action, but that doesn?t mean we?ll just skip our wagering opportunities. The fact is three games in the AL and two more in the NL will give us plenty of time to dissect what means most on the bottom dollar.

Focusing on the first of a pair of National League contests, the L.A. Dodgers and Chicago Cubs will get the bats swinging and the balls slinging at 8:05 p.m. EDT. This will be Game 1 of a long, four-game set.

Setting the table, it?s ok to admit if you thought the Dodgers would have trouble acclimating themselves to the absence of power slugger, Manny Ramirez (.348 BA/20 RBIs/6 HRs). I did! Since being tossed from the league for 50 games, L.A. has continued to march on. The club is 11-7 without the star right fielder. But here?s where the supplement can be found.

The Dodgers are not only pulling in a league second best, 254 runs, but an on base percentage of .374 is unheard of when compared to this club's prior history. While the entire National League is hovering around a .258 BA, L.A. has surpassed that by posting up a figure of .291. And the offensive numbers go on and on.

As for Thursday expect the Dodgers to shove Randy Wolf (2-1, 3.02 ERA) out onto the field in hopes of earning his third win of the season. But although L.A. is a smoking 4-1 at home when Wolf takes the mound, the club?s road performance stands out at 2-3. The most surprising statistic has seen Wolf surrendering one or no runs at all in five of his 10 starts this season. His record during these performances; just 2-0!

With Wolf being a natural left-handed hurler, the Cubs will be hard pressed to manufacture anything from that side of the plate. Southpaw bats have made contact for a .093 BA with a .329 OPS. Career wise, Wolf has been able to hold fellow lefty bats to .226 BA. And for the month of May, the six-footer out of Pepperdine University has accumulated a 19-10 record followed by a 3.25 ERA (the best month of pitching in his career for that matter).

Chicago is emerging from its longest losing streak in the last three years. The Cubs managed to take a 6-1 ?W? away from Pittsburgh after the game was called at the end of the fifth inning due to inclement weather.




Four games out of first and 9-14 on the road, Chicago will entrust Randy Wells (0-1, 1.50) with the game ball. Wells has had the opportunity to start in three games this season as Rich Harden (back) departed to the 15-day DL on May 23. The problem hasn?t been Wells as two of those three appearances have seen the righty toss gems, giving up not one run on May 8 and 16 outings. Some of the blame can be applied to an offense giving their starter a skimp, 2.7 runs of support per start.

Despite books listing the Cubs as $1.22 underdogs in Wells first start in Milwaukee (May 8 in which they lost 3-2), most spots adjusted accordingly by placing Chi-Town as $1.06 and ?chalky? $1.60 favorites in his next two congruent trips to the hill. Despite the vote of confidence from the books, the Cubs are 1-2 when Wells is scheduled to take the field (that?s a -166 financial loss if making $100 wagers).

L.A. will bring with it a 5-1 record when Wolf toes the slab in Game 1 of a series and a 12-4 performance in Wolf?s last 16 starts with four days of rest. As it stands, Sportsbook.com has opened the Cubbies as $1.15 favorites.

Atlanta at Arizona ? 9:40 p.m. EDT

Both of these teams have had their fare share of ups and downs despite the premature age of the season. And now both clubs are beginning to embrace success, at least for the time being. Opening the books as a $1.20 favorite, Arizona will attempt to take its eighth win in the last 11 games. Bodog.com has set the total at eight runs.

First off, there?s no denying the improvement on offense for the Diamondbacks. Hitting .236 on the season and crossing home plate for 195 runs (23rd worst), Arizona finds itself with 46 runs in just the last eight games (third best in the league), despite pluggin in a .253 BA. During this time frame, Mark Reynolds leads the team with 10 RBIs while Justin Upton and Chris Snyder have combined for 11 RBIs.

And it?s not difficult to see that offense has been the difference between wins and losses. When the D-Backs have scored six or more runs this season they?re 11-4 in the record books (3-1 in just the last four games when scoring six or more). This is not to mention the 14-1 ?over? record when scoring six or more runs at a clip as well.

A shaky Dan Haren (3-4, 2.57), who hasn?t been credited with a win since May 2, will attempt to give his Arizona ball club a quality start. In the last three starts, Haren has self imploded, allowing 11 totals runs. Five of those runs came in his last appearance alone in which he coughed up a career high, four long balls. Books have continued to support Haren. All nine of his starts have been set with the Diamondbacks as the favorite (ranging from a low of -118 to a high of -177).

Derek Lowe (6-2, 3.45) is on a role for Atlanta, sitting in the statistical column posting seven quality starts, five wins in his last six trips to the rubber and has surrendered two or fewer runs in four of his last six appearances. A 4-1 record on the road have been followed by a 3.58 ERA with batter swinging over the ball for a .217 BA. Oh, and Lowe will be getting the nod for the start on Thursday.

In the last 10, the Braves have seen a spike in offensive production, posting up 6.3 runs per game. This coming from a unit that has posted 4.3 runs per game on the year, 23rd worst in the Majors. But these numbers can be misinterpreted as Atlanta has been shutout inside the batter box in three of the last five defeats.

The ?over? is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings. Atlanta has had the upper hand in these matchups, taking a 5-2 edge in the last seven clashes against Arizona.

 

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Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Thriving ? St. Louis Cardinals

While one N.L. Central team is struggling in the pen, another is thriving. The Redbirds currently sit atop the division and their relief corps is one of the key cogs in their successful machine. The relievers have been especially important as of late as the bats have been non-existent for the Cards. Despite the fact that this team has hit only .217 over the last 10 games, they are still 6-4 during that stretch mainly because their bullpen has been red hot.

The pitching staff as a whole has been ultra productive allowing only nine total runs over the last nine games. As well as the starters have been, the bullpen has actually gotten the better of the regulars allowing only one earned run during that span. The Cardinal relief squad has allowed opposing batters to hit only .113 during that nine game stretch. That has been a major reason this team has won seven of their last nine games despite scoring three runs or less in six of those games.





The St. Louis pitching staff as a whole has been fantastic as they lead the Majors in team ERA at 3.61 and team WHIP at 1.28. The bullpen has contributed significantly to those impressive numbers. Currently the Cards? relievers have an ERA of just 3.71 which is good for third in the National League. Even better yet, this bullpen allows opposing batters to hit just .214 this year which is first in the N.L.

At the back end of games, closer Ryan Franklin has been a big surprise closing 12 of the 13 games he?s attempted. He has allowed the opponent to score in only two of his 19 appearances this year. The middle relievers have done a great job of getting the game to Franklin with the lead. Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte and Dennys Reyes have led the way each with 21+ appearances this season. All three have an ERA of 3.50 or less with McClellan heading the group at just 1.96.

Even with a few key injuries, see Ryan Ludwick, and huge offensive struggles as of late, this team has been able to stay at the top of the N.L. Central. Tony LaRussa can thank his bullpen for giving him and his team that opportunity.

Struggling ? Chicago Cubs

The Cubs recent free fall has dropped them to fourth place in the N.L. Central. They have lost eight of their last 10 games as of this writing. Some of their struggles have been due to their ice cold bats as they are hitting just barely over .210 as a team during that stretch. However, don?t discount the affect of their poor bullpen on the rut they are currently stuck in. With Aramis Ramirez out with a dislocated shoulder, Derek Lee slowed by the flu, and Milton Bradley and Geovany Soto hitting near the Mendoza line, manager Lou Piniella has a built in excuse when it comes his offensive woes. There is light at the end of the tunnel for this team offensively. I?m not so sure that is the case when it comes to the bullpen.

Entering Wednesday?s action, the North Siders had the third worst bullpen numbers in the entire National League. The reliever?s combined ERA sits at 5.23 and the Cubs are just 6-7 in games decided by the bullpen. Taking a look at recent results, the Chicago bullpen has allowed seven earned runs in just their last 12 innings of work spanning six games.

A player by player breakdown of the key pitchers in the bullpen reveals the problem is staff wide. Carlos Marmol and Angel Guzman have been the only reliable options in relief this season. Even with that, Marmol?s numbers aren?t nearly as dominant as they have been the last few years. His 3.60 ERA is up from 2.29 his last previous two years combined. Kevin Gregg?s save numbers look fairly solid, seven saves in eight attempts, however he has failed in a few tie game situations and his ERA sits at 5.40. He has also allowed 33 base runners in just 19.1 innings. Don?t expect Gregg?s save numbers to stay solid if he continues to allow base runners at an alarming rate. They picked up Aaron Heilman from the Mets in hope that his down year in 2008 was an aberration. That has not been the case as Heilman continues to struggle with an ERA of 5.49. Neal Cotts was a decent left-handed option out of the bullpen last year, however in 2009 he has been terrible allowing 23 base runners in only 11 innings of work. Finally, Jeff Samardzija, he of Notre Dame Fame, was counted on to eat up some innings this year, however his poor start already has him demoted to the Minors.

While the Chicago starting pitchers haven?t been as good as some expected, they have been solid. The Cubs hitting is bound to pick up as they get key players back in the lineup and others break out of their slumps. The bullpen is a long term concern, however. As of now, they are not pitching well enough for the Cubs to be an elite team. We?ll see of that turns around anytime soon.

OTHER BULLPEN SNIPPETS

Tampa Bay Rays ? Last week I chose Tampa as my bullpen that was beginning to thrive. They followed that up by blowing a six run, ninth inning lead in Cleveland on Memorial Day. However, don?t read too much into that collapse. Since my article, the Rays had to put closer Troy Percival on the D.L. so he wasn?t available. Not only that, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler, two of Tampa?s top relievers, were not available after pitching the previous two days. Another option would have been Joe Nelson, however he pitched a perfect inning earlier in the contest. Jason Isringhausen was the only option remaining and he obviously didn?t have it that night.

Philadelphia Phillies ? I have commented on Brad Lidge a few times this year and the concerns are still there. Lidge, who was a perfect 41 for 41 in save opportunities last season, has already blown four this year. Last weekend alone he blew two saves and his ERA is nearing 9.00. This isn?t the first time Lidge has had a meltdown after a terrific season. In 2005 he was brilliant saving 42 games with a 2.29 ERA. He followed that up by blowing 14 saves his next two years combined and his ERA climbed to 4.40.

 

[Lumi]

Braves on the rise

Braves on the rise

Braves on the rise

The hot start for the Dodgers and the recent surge of the Padres has brought a lot of attention to the NL West, while the struggles of the Cubs and the close race in the NL Central between the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds is also an intriguing storyline. In the NL East, it seems to be a forgone conclusion that the Phillies and the Mets will be battling it out through September, but another perennial playoff contender is not far behind and could quickly climb back into the picture. The Atlanta Braves were a bit of a trendy pick in spring training and although they have floated around .500 most of the year, a big push into the thick of the playoff picture could be coming soon.

June could be a big month for Atlanta. Following a west coast trip to end May, Atlanta will play 16 of 25 June games at home. As usual, Atlanta gets tough interleague draws, playing three games with the Yankees and six with the Red Sox but two-thirds of those games will be at home. Atlanta recently won three games against Toronto, so the Braves have proven they can compete against the best in the AL unlike many other NL teams. The Braves will have a critical ten-game home stand to open the month, catching slumping offenses in Chicago, Milwaukee, and Pittsburgh in what will be a key opportunity to pick up some ground. In the first two months of the season the Braves have already played six games at Philadelphia and more games in New York than at home so they should have opportunities to move up in this division.




As was the case when Atlanta had great teams in the 90s, pitching is going to carry the Braves. Atlanta currently owns one of the better ERAs in baseball a 4.13 and the team ranks fifth in baseball in WHIP and strikeouts. Atlanta?s defense has also been one of the better fielding units in the league. In signing Derek Lowe the Braves have a reliable #1 option at the top of the rotation and he has not disappointed so far with a 6-2 record. Javier Vazquez has also revived his career with very solid numbers for the Braves. Jair Jurrjens has all-star caliber numbers with a 2.07 ERA through ten starts and Kenshin Kawakami has pitched much better his numbers indicate. The #5 spot has not been locked down but promising prospect Kris Medlen currently has the opportunity. Even if that spot remains in flux, few teams can match this rotation, particularly in the NL East.

The Atlanta bullpen has not been great overall this season but closer Mike Gonzalez and set-up man Rafael Soriano may be all that the Braves need. Both veteran relievers have produced great numbers so far this season and given the durability and endurance of the rotation this unit will not need a ton of middle-relief innings. Between Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, Eric O?Flaherty, and Peter Moylan the Braves have enough pieces to maintain a competitive bullpen and with closing options from the left and right side with Gonzalez and Soriano the Braves should lock down wins, a key in the NL East with Phillies closer Brad Lidge struggling and Mets closer Francisco Rordiguez battling injury.

A big difference for the Braves this season has been improved play on the road. Last season Atlanta was 29-52 on the road, one of the worst marks in baseball. Atlanta has gone 12-10 so far this season in road games and many of those wins have come against winning teams. The Braves have gone 4-2 in Philadelphia, 2-1 in New York, and 2-0 in Florida to deliver commanding success within the division. Atlanta also won a series in Cincinnati, another team that is playing well. The Braves did lose early season series in Pittsburgh and Washington but after starting the season 11-15 Atlanta has played much better overall in the last three weeks. The Braves have not been swept in a road series all season long although that run is in jeopardy in San Francisco this week.

The Braves have only scored 4.3 runs per game but the team is batting .262, around the middle-of-the-pack in baseball, but an average that should reflect more scoring. Atlanta has hit only 33 home runs and stolen just 10 bases to rank towards the bottom of the league in those categories but with Chipper Jones and Brian McCann Atlanta should have two solid .300+ hitters and Atlanta has been playing better with Matt Diaz taking over many of the at-bats that Jordan Schafer and his 56 strikeouts took early in the year. If Kelly Johnson and Garret Anderson can get back in line wither their career averages this offense should be good enough and with wild cards like Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman leading the team in at-bats there should be some hot streaks at various points of the season. Atlanta strikes out much less than most teams and generates enough walks to make-up for some power deficiencies.

Atlanta has also proven in the past they are willing to make a big move to add what they need. Jake Peavy talks could resume after falling through in the off-season and there will be several attractive bats on the market that could fit in nicely with this offense. The Braves have also been crushing left-handed pitching going 11-5 against left-handed starters this season, a key in a division with Johan Santana and Cole Hamels. The June schedule looks very tough for the Mets and the Phillies so expect Atlanta to slowly climb closer to the top of the standings in the next month and look for the NL East to be a three-team race down the stretch with the Braves as a serious threat.