Willie, I have been following you on this forum for almost 3 years now, and think that you are unquestionably the best hockey handicapper I have ever come across.
I have never even registered a username until now, as I never had to need to comment or post anything, but over the past few months I have been doing a lot of thinking regarding fundamental betting philosophy and strategy, and there's a question that I very much want to ask you.
First, I am very confident that the strategy you have developed is obviously a successful one, and every regular season, and every post-season, will end up with profit. Every capper goes through winning and losing streaks, and you are no exception, but at the end of the season, 99 times out of 100, you will end up +X units.
However, I believe that if you really treat this this seriously as an investment, as opposed to just a hobby, then the objective should not just be to profit, but to maximize profit. And I am sure you are not one to just rest on your laurels, but that you constantly examine and tinker with your system, to see if you could improve it in some way.
Which leads me to my question:
If we can agree that the goal is to maximize profit, it seems to me that your best strategy would be as follows: instead of playing the bronze/silver/gold plays at 1/2/3 units, wouldn't it make more sense, and lead to far greater profit, to simply eliminate your bronze and silver plays altogether, and only play your golds at 6 units? Over the 3 seasons I have followed you, every single regular and post season, your golds consistently win at a far greater percentage than your silvers and bronzes. The current post-season is perhaps the greatest example of the discrepancy in winning percentage between your golds and bronzes.
I would never call you an action junkie, because I see that you are disciplined and do not have tons of plays, but even so, isn't playing the bronzes and silvers just increasing the number of plays you have, to make wagering "more fun", since otherwise you may only have 2-3 plays in a week?
I think of it this way. If you were to take emotion completely out of the equation, as if you never watched a hockey game and didn't even know the rules of the game, so basically approaching this exactly as you would a potential investment in the stock market, and that maximum profit was the ONLY goal, you would have to agree that only playing the golds and putting more units on those plays would unquestionably lead to higher returns.
Other then having more plays to follow, and thus making it more fun when you watch hockey, I cannot think of any reason why you would play the silvers and bronzes at all. Even if you did want to have action on more games for the "fun factor" wouldn't it make more sense to play bronzes and silvers at .5 units, and golds at 5 units, than playing them 1/2/3?
Willie, I ask this with all the respect in the world, and your ability to identify winners in second to none. But one thing I have learned over the years is that picking winners and winning money are often worlds apart. The gambling world is full of broke cappers who could pick winners but who could not place the right bets or had poor money management. I actually think that picking winners is the easiest part of sports wagering. Making the right bets and proper money management is much tougher.
Investing as much time as you do, you must have thought about this yourself. So the question is, if the goal is to maximize profit, why have you decided to play the way you do?
Thanks Willie, and best of luck with the few games that are left. I'll be playing your next gold big :toast:
I have never even registered a username until now, as I never had to need to comment or post anything, but over the past few months I have been doing a lot of thinking regarding fundamental betting philosophy and strategy, and there's a question that I very much want to ask you.
First, I am very confident that the strategy you have developed is obviously a successful one, and every regular season, and every post-season, will end up with profit. Every capper goes through winning and losing streaks, and you are no exception, but at the end of the season, 99 times out of 100, you will end up +X units.
However, I believe that if you really treat this this seriously as an investment, as opposed to just a hobby, then the objective should not just be to profit, but to maximize profit. And I am sure you are not one to just rest on your laurels, but that you constantly examine and tinker with your system, to see if you could improve it in some way.
Which leads me to my question:
If we can agree that the goal is to maximize profit, it seems to me that your best strategy would be as follows: instead of playing the bronze/silver/gold plays at 1/2/3 units, wouldn't it make more sense, and lead to far greater profit, to simply eliminate your bronze and silver plays altogether, and only play your golds at 6 units? Over the 3 seasons I have followed you, every single regular and post season, your golds consistently win at a far greater percentage than your silvers and bronzes. The current post-season is perhaps the greatest example of the discrepancy in winning percentage between your golds and bronzes.
I would never call you an action junkie, because I see that you are disciplined and do not have tons of plays, but even so, isn't playing the bronzes and silvers just increasing the number of plays you have, to make wagering "more fun", since otherwise you may only have 2-3 plays in a week?
I think of it this way. If you were to take emotion completely out of the equation, as if you never watched a hockey game and didn't even know the rules of the game, so basically approaching this exactly as you would a potential investment in the stock market, and that maximum profit was the ONLY goal, you would have to agree that only playing the golds and putting more units on those plays would unquestionably lead to higher returns.
Other then having more plays to follow, and thus making it more fun when you watch hockey, I cannot think of any reason why you would play the silvers and bronzes at all. Even if you did want to have action on more games for the "fun factor" wouldn't it make more sense to play bronzes and silvers at .5 units, and golds at 5 units, than playing them 1/2/3?
Willie, I ask this with all the respect in the world, and your ability to identify winners in second to none. But one thing I have learned over the years is that picking winners and winning money are often worlds apart. The gambling world is full of broke cappers who could pick winners but who could not place the right bets or had poor money management. I actually think that picking winners is the easiest part of sports wagering. Making the right bets and proper money management is much tougher.
Investing as much time as you do, you must have thought about this yourself. So the question is, if the goal is to maximize profit, why have you decided to play the way you do?
Thanks Willie, and best of luck with the few games that are left. I'll be playing your next gold big :toast:
