NBA THU 060409 early thoughts - value hunting (Finals)

axp59

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These are my cap notes as I played out the games in my head 3 times. Let's have a profitable series. :)

ORL@LAL Gm1

Season 2008 - Scenario #1
NO doubt both teams are offensive but surprisingly also capable of playing some D.

ORL 99 LAL 100

Each team can and has won games by quarters consistently.

Observation1- LAL defense slower to start in 1H
Observation2- Both teams have no problems getting it going offensively
Observation3- LAL can come out with much more intensity to start 2H specially on the defensive end.

slight edge to ORL 1H but LAL evens it up in 3Q. 4Q is a toss-up depending on the situation. 4Q play is even.

ORL 100 LAL 101

Observation4- May be 1 or 2 more FGA for each team over the norm but both will hit less than norm.
Observation5- 3P peremiter play is a huge advantage for ORL and is going to be trouble for LAL. 1st Huge advantage for either team.

Conservative estimate ORL 94 LAL 97

Advantage ORL for starters but bench play goes to the LAL.

ORL 99 LAL 100

What changes when ORL is on the road and LAL are home? - Scenario #2

Observation6- LAL picks it up both offensively and defensively.
Observation7- ORL cans still get theirs but defense slacks enough to give games away.

ORL 98 LAL 105

Quarter play is telling.

Observation8- LAL slight advantage to begin the game. ORL bench can't make up the gap against LAL bench and 1H goes to LAL.
Observation9- 3Q may be where LAL could start to increase their lead and my be enough by 4Q to hold off a final push by ORL.

ORL 98 LAL 104

Observation10- Again 3p play is going to be a big factor here except that LAL is home and this isn't as significant. LAL won't need to rely on the 3p to

score their points.

Conservative estimate ORL 95 LAL 101

The difference maker in the home court is the LAL bench can significantly outplay the ORL bench.

ORL 97 LAL 105

Coming into the 1st game, how are the teams playing? - Scenario #3

Observation11- Nether team is concerned about winning by defense. Both are confortable with winning by outscoring the other team.

ORL 107 LAL 108

Quarter play again presents some interesting observation.

Observation12- LAL comes out firing and ORL will have a hard time keeping up.
Observation13- LAL might make the mistake of sitting back and lets ORL back in it before halftime.
Observation14- How 1H ends gives ORL some life to start 3Q and could actually go up on the LAL.
Observation15- LAL sensing possibly throwing away the game goes into another gear and wins the game

ORL 104 LAL 106

Conservative estimate ORL 102 LAL 103

Observation16- LAL won't need to rely on their bench while ORL bench must show up to keep this one respectable.

ORL 106 LAL 110

Final estimate ORL 100 LAL 104

Action is going to come down to the where the value is.

BOL everyone!
 

MonkeyPants

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This Lakers team employs something the Cavs don't know anything about - a bench. LA is deep; depper than the Magic by far.
 

JBrilman

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Ax,

Great work my friend. :)

Lakers win this game. Covering is another ball game in it self and 6 points SURE is A LOT. I can see this being a very tightly contested series with NO blowouts.
 

Eagle123

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Welcome back Ax.

I lost badly on last few games without you.


Hope can chase back some

BOL to us

祝我們好運:director:
 

ari

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Thanks for the insights Ax - I was leaning heavy on Under 206 - seems like the majority of your scenarios fall Under 206. LA seems to have shifted into another gear of intensity and they appear to be playing better team ball - if I can use that term to refer to LA:SIB
 
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axp59

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Locked the Under and hoping for some LAL backers to give me the hook before tip but I'll settle for the 6 if needed. BOLTA
 

Eagle123

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Locked the Under and hoping for some LAL backers to give me the hook before tip but I'll settle for the 6 if needed. BOLTA

We will go for under and ORL +6 on Game 1, am I correct Ax?
 

KillerKardoogan

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Hey Ax,
If you can bet in-game lines, you might want to wait til sometime in the 1Q to take ORL.
I believe 2 of your 3 above scenarios agree.

JBril - don't know if you got my message in the last thread.

Joe Shmoe - where u at ?

Me - I've had 4 days of nothing but :sleep:. I'm hoping with one more I'll be ready to:box2:.

Et Al - BOL
 
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harlytiger

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AXP you give Orlando no chance vs the Lakers....:shrug: couple of other teams thought the same....AKA boston and clev
 

40seven

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Thanks for the wisdom it has been missing for a while!

I belive you have nailed it.

Loving the Magic here!
 

axp59

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Hey Ax,
If you can bet in-game lines, you might want to wait til sometime in the 1Q to take ORL.
I believe 2 of your 3 above scenarios agree.

JBril - don't know if you got my message in the last thread.

Joe Shmoe - where u at ?

Me - I've had 4 days of nothing but :sleep:. I'm hoping with one more I'll be ready to:box2:.

Et Al - BOL

KK, I'm looking at halves also. I'm going to see how these guys perform against the stats and should have a good idea if the data is somewhat reliable.
 

JBrilman

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Hey Ax,
If you can bet in-game lines, you might want to wait til sometime in the 1Q to take ORL.
I believe 2 of your 3 above scenarios agree.

JBril - don't know if you got my message in the last thread.


Et Al - BOL

I saw ya killer, thanks!

After much thought and deliberation here are my thoughts. SIX points is a lot, but I can't take the points.

Cant bet against my Lakers, no play for me on this game. The numbers all point to an Orlando cover but I cant pull the trigger.

I will say that both regular season games can be thrown out the window. I don't think people realize how much Nelson contributes especially against teams that have trouble defending the point guard. Fisher was once a great defender but he is aging and as we saw in the Utah series a big physical guard can torment the Lakers. No Nelson isn't tall but he is STRONG!!

Without Nelson the Lakers can attack this team differently on defense. If the Lakers don't double off Rashard and Hedo they should be able to defend the 3 well. That leaves the pressure on Howard to propel this team to victory. I am sure he will get his 22pts/15reb but that won't be enough if the Lakers defend the 3 well. They should start Odom in this series purely for the match up. Ariza and Odom can change this series with there defense on Rashard and Hedo.

I will hope for a win by 2-4 so the line comes down for Sunday to around -4. I will JUMP all over that. Game 3 I will shy away from and again game 4 I will JUMP all over the LAKERS ML!!!

BOL TONIGHT FELLAS!!
 

axp59

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AXP you give Orlando no chance vs the Lakers....:shrug: couple of other teams thought the same....AKA boston and clev

Only capped gm1 and if I were to play a side, it would be ORL. I'm trying to stay as objective as possible but it's very difficult for a BOS homer to not want to go against the LAL. If the numbers are right, I have no problem going with ORL for any given matchup...e.g. gm1
 

axp59

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I saw ya killer, thanks!

After much thought and deliberation here are my thoughts. SIX points is a lot, but I can't take the points.

Cant bet against my Lakers, no play for me on this game. The numbers all point to an Orlando cover but I cant pull the trigger.

I will say that both regular season games can be thrown out the window. I don't think people realize how much Nelson contributes especially against teams that have trouble defending the point guard. Fisher was once a great defender but he is aging and as we saw in the Utah series a big physical guard can torment the Lakers. No Nelson isn't tall but he is STRONG!!

Without Nelson the Lakers can attack this team differently on defense. If the Lakers don't double off Rashard and Hedo they should be able to defend the 3 well. That leaves the pressure on Howard to propel this team to victory. I am sure he will get his 22pts/15reb but that won't be enough if the Lakers defend the 3 well. They should start Odom in this series purely for the match up. Ariza and Odom can change this series with there defense on Rashard and Hedo.

I will hope for a win by 2-4 so the line comes down for Sunday to around -4. I will JUMP all over that. Game 3 I will shy away from and again game 4 I will JUMP all over the LAKERS ML!!!

BOL TONIGHT FELLAS!!

Sounds like you got the series played out Jus. I guess you don't see this going 7? I'm throwing the stats out the door after gm1. I think situational analysis will be more reliable after the 1st gm.
 

JBrilman

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Sounds like you got the series played out Jus. I guess you don't see this going 7? I'm throwing the stats out the door after gm1. I think situational analysis will be more reliable after the 1st gm.

Here is how I see it playing out and no I dont see 7 games in this series.


Game 1 LAL win but not cover
Game 2 LAL win and cover
Game 3 ORL win and cover (spread will be -2)
Game 4 LAL win (spread will LAL +4)
Game 5 ORL win no cover spread will prob be 5 or 6
Game 6 LAL win and decisively maybe a blowout

I realize I am a homer and everybody else knows that too. With that being said there is a lot to be said for Kobe losing the last 2 finals he has played in. He knows what it takes to win and will push his teammates to the brink each night to make sure they are giving the effort it takes to win a championship. I know they have shown signs of a lackluster team but don't read into that too much. They just played 2 of the most physical teams in the playoffs and beat them both. They now will play a softer Orlando team and that plays right into their hands.

Dwight reminds me of a young Shaq in Orlando @ the 95 Finals. No he won't get swept like Shaq did but this team is not as tested as a returning to the finals Lakers team. Both teams are playing a high level of basketball at the right time and it will be fun to watch but my nod goes to experience in this one...

And yes Ax this series will be all about SITUATIONAL capping!!
 

adam44

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Hey Ax

Are you on the under for a full 1U or just an action play? Thanks and lets hit it!!:00hour
 

ari

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Ax - I am already on Under 206. I like your lean on Magic +6 (maybe a hook) - but do you see value in parlay Lakers ML and Under 206 for +150? Kind regards:0corn
 
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