NFL off-season update
We touched on NFL season win totals a few weeks ago and now we?re ready to dive a little deeper into that topic and more. Our friends at Sportsbook.com have added a slew of wagering options to their NFL arena.
Gamblers can now bet on futures, win totals, division odds and more at the offshore website. In addition, Sportsbook.com is using different numbers for some teams compared to the opening totals we discussed from Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
In our previous discussion, I said I was bullish on the ?under? for the Arizona Cardinals. LVSC had that number at 9 ? on the send-out. However, Sportsbook.com is using 8 ? ?under? (minus-130). That?s a 30-cent line so ?over? wagers can be had at even-money.
With the number going down to 8 ? from 9 ?, I?m not nearly as high on playing the ?under? for the defending NFC champs. My initial thought process was that, well, we?re still talking about the Cardinals. There?s also that trend of defending Super Bowl losers falling flat the following season (think the Bears after losing to the Colts, no to mention the Pats not making the playoffs in 2008).
I?m also skeptical about Kurt Warner staying healthy and how the Anquan Boldin situation is going to play out. If Warner goes down, is Matt Leinart poised to impress or play ineffectively?
Another thought process with Arizona is that I think the NFC West, although still a weak division, will be an improved loop in 2009. In other words, I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be a lot better.
San Francisco played hard under Mike Singletary late in 2008. And remember, if not for Mike Martz?s horrendous play-call on the goal line in the final minute, the 49ers would?ve won their MNF game at Arizona. Furthermore, they got the steal of the draft in selecting Michael Crabtree after he inexplicably fell in their laps at the No. 10 spot of the first round.
Last season was an anomaly for Seattle with injuries galore and Mike Holmgren coaching as a lame duck. Matt Hasselbeck was never right in 2008 and the wide receivers were similarly banged up.
Sportsbook.com has Arizona as the plus-140 ?chalk? to win the NFC West (risk $100 to win $140). Seattle is sporting plus-180 odds compared to a plus-240 number for the Niners. St. Louis is the plus-800 longshot.
I like the Eagles to win the rugged NFC East and those odds are plus-160 (risk $100 to win $160). I love what Philadelphia did during the off-season and especially in the draft. Donovan McNabb will have more weapons at his disposal that any other time in his career.
Andy Reid?s team lucked out when speedster Jeremy Maclin from out of Missouri fell to the No. 19 slot of the first round. Then in the second round, the Eagles selected LeSean McCoy, a top-notch running back from Pittsburgh. McCoy, who thrives at catching the ball out of the backfield, is a perfect fit in Reid?s offense.
After the draft, I stated that McCoy?s presence would allow Reid to keep the oft-injured Brian Westbrook fresh and healthy. Westbrook is going to be out until at least early August after deciding to go under the knife (surgery scheduled for June 5) to remove bone spurs in his ankle. Remember, Westbrook already had surgery on one of his knees a couple of months ago.
Don?t be surprised if fifth-round pick Cornelius Ingram makes an impact as a rookie. Ingram tore his ACL last August before his senior season at Florida. Prior to the injury, most draftniks felt Ingram was a possible first-round pick and his rehab went so well that there was brief consideration for Ingram to play in UF?s national-title game against Oklahoma.
The Giants are the plus-150 ?chalk? to win the NFC East. Dallas has a plus-300 number compared to plus-700 for the Redskins.
If there?s a team that I really have no clue about for 2009, it?s the Cowboys. Will their team chemistry be so much better without T.O. that it translates to more victories? Can Wade Phillips get the locker room back after he clearly lost it in the latter stages of 2008? Without the pressure to force the ball to You Know Who, will Tony Romo return to his All-Pro form of 2007? Those are questions that I don?t have the answers for ? certainly not yet.
The heat is certainly on Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell in Washington. If they don?t perform to expectations in 2008, neither will be with the organization much longer. (More on Zorn?s situation below in Bonus Nuggets.)
In the NFC South, Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as the plus-160 ?chalk.? How?s that for a one-year transformation from when the Falcons had a season win total of four? This time around, Mike Smith?s squad has a win total of eight ?over? (-135 for ?over? wagers, +105 for ?under? bets) at the offshore website. LVSC initially released the Falcons as nine.
Remember, Atlanta has never had back-to-back winning seasons in the frachise?s lackluster history. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism with budding star QB Matt Ryan and newly acquired TE Tony Gonzalez.
New Orleans has plus-180 odds to win the NFC South, while Carolina is sporting a plus-225 number. Tampa Bay is the plus-700 longshot.
With Tom Brady back in the mix, New England remains the Super Bowl favorite with 4/1 odds (risk $100 to win $400). The Pats? win total at Sportsbook.com is currently 11 ? ?over? (-125). They are the minus-400 ?chalk? to win the AFC East (risk $400 to win $100).
Buffalo has plus-600 odds to win the division, while the Jets are carrying a plus-700 tally. The Dolphins, who won the loop last season, are at plus-900.
--Sportsbook.com?s early line for Super Bowl XLIV has the AFC listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 47 ?.
--Just to be clear, I don?t want my characterization of Westbrook as oft-injured to be misinterpreted. Westbrook is a workhorse stud that only missed one game last season. I?m not in any way shape or form questioning his toughness. I?m simply saying less touches will be better for him and the team and will lead to him not being ?questionable? on the injury report seemingly every week.
--Five coaches on the hot seat:
1-Wade Phillips (Dallas)
2-Jim Zorn (Washington)
3-Dick Jauron (Buffalo)
4-Norv Turner (San Diego)
5-Brad Childress (Minnesota)
--Jacksonville?s Jack Del Rio and Cincinnati?s Marvin Lewis are also coaches to keep an eye on, but I kept them out of the top-five because their respective franchises clearly don?t want to pink slip them for monetary concerns. If not for those worries, surely both would?ve been canned after dreadful 2008 campaigns?
--The hot-seat list is especially important this season because of the presence of an unbelievable group of free-agent coaches that includes Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden. And that?s leaving Super Bowl winners Brian Billick and Tony Dungy out of the equation, although few think Dungy will ever come out of retirement.
--The presence of Phillips and Zorn in 1-2 order is directly related to their bosses. Owners Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder won?t hesitate for a second to make moves, especially if it means beating the other to Cowher or Shanahan.
We touched on NFL season win totals a few weeks ago and now we?re ready to dive a little deeper into that topic and more. Our friends at Sportsbook.com have added a slew of wagering options to their NFL arena.
Gamblers can now bet on futures, win totals, division odds and more at the offshore website. In addition, Sportsbook.com is using different numbers for some teams compared to the opening totals we discussed from Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
In our previous discussion, I said I was bullish on the ?under? for the Arizona Cardinals. LVSC had that number at 9 ? on the send-out. However, Sportsbook.com is using 8 ? ?under? (minus-130). That?s a 30-cent line so ?over? wagers can be had at even-money.
With the number going down to 8 ? from 9 ?, I?m not nearly as high on playing the ?under? for the defending NFC champs. My initial thought process was that, well, we?re still talking about the Cardinals. There?s also that trend of defending Super Bowl losers falling flat the following season (think the Bears after losing to the Colts, no to mention the Pats not making the playoffs in 2008).
I?m also skeptical about Kurt Warner staying healthy and how the Anquan Boldin situation is going to play out. If Warner goes down, is Matt Leinart poised to impress or play ineffectively?
Another thought process with Arizona is that I think the NFC West, although still a weak division, will be an improved loop in 2009. In other words, I expect the Seahawks and 49ers to be a lot better.
San Francisco played hard under Mike Singletary late in 2008. And remember, if not for Mike Martz?s horrendous play-call on the goal line in the final minute, the 49ers would?ve won their MNF game at Arizona. Furthermore, they got the steal of the draft in selecting Michael Crabtree after he inexplicably fell in their laps at the No. 10 spot of the first round.
Last season was an anomaly for Seattle with injuries galore and Mike Holmgren coaching as a lame duck. Matt Hasselbeck was never right in 2008 and the wide receivers were similarly banged up.
Sportsbook.com has Arizona as the plus-140 ?chalk? to win the NFC West (risk $100 to win $140). Seattle is sporting plus-180 odds compared to a plus-240 number for the Niners. St. Louis is the plus-800 longshot.
I like the Eagles to win the rugged NFC East and those odds are plus-160 (risk $100 to win $160). I love what Philadelphia did during the off-season and especially in the draft. Donovan McNabb will have more weapons at his disposal that any other time in his career.
Andy Reid?s team lucked out when speedster Jeremy Maclin from out of Missouri fell to the No. 19 slot of the first round. Then in the second round, the Eagles selected LeSean McCoy, a top-notch running back from Pittsburgh. McCoy, who thrives at catching the ball out of the backfield, is a perfect fit in Reid?s offense.
After the draft, I stated that McCoy?s presence would allow Reid to keep the oft-injured Brian Westbrook fresh and healthy. Westbrook is going to be out until at least early August after deciding to go under the knife (surgery scheduled for June 5) to remove bone spurs in his ankle. Remember, Westbrook already had surgery on one of his knees a couple of months ago.
Don?t be surprised if fifth-round pick Cornelius Ingram makes an impact as a rookie. Ingram tore his ACL last August before his senior season at Florida. Prior to the injury, most draftniks felt Ingram was a possible first-round pick and his rehab went so well that there was brief consideration for Ingram to play in UF?s national-title game against Oklahoma.
The Giants are the plus-150 ?chalk? to win the NFC East. Dallas has a plus-300 number compared to plus-700 for the Redskins.
If there?s a team that I really have no clue about for 2009, it?s the Cowboys. Will their team chemistry be so much better without T.O. that it translates to more victories? Can Wade Phillips get the locker room back after he clearly lost it in the latter stages of 2008? Without the pressure to force the ball to You Know Who, will Tony Romo return to his All-Pro form of 2007? Those are questions that I don?t have the answers for ? certainly not yet.
The heat is certainly on Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell in Washington. If they don?t perform to expectations in 2008, neither will be with the organization much longer. (More on Zorn?s situation below in Bonus Nuggets.)
In the NFC South, Sportsbook.com has Atlanta as the plus-160 ?chalk.? How?s that for a one-year transformation from when the Falcons had a season win total of four? This time around, Mike Smith?s squad has a win total of eight ?over? (-135 for ?over? wagers, +105 for ?under? bets) at the offshore website. LVSC initially released the Falcons as nine.
Remember, Atlanta has never had back-to-back winning seasons in the frachise?s lackluster history. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism with budding star QB Matt Ryan and newly acquired TE Tony Gonzalez.
New Orleans has plus-180 odds to win the NFC South, while Carolina is sporting a plus-225 number. Tampa Bay is the plus-700 longshot.
With Tom Brady back in the mix, New England remains the Super Bowl favorite with 4/1 odds (risk $100 to win $400). The Pats? win total at Sportsbook.com is currently 11 ? ?over? (-125). They are the minus-400 ?chalk? to win the AFC East (risk $400 to win $100).
Buffalo has plus-600 odds to win the division, while the Jets are carrying a plus-700 tally. The Dolphins, who won the loop last season, are at plus-900.
--Sportsbook.com?s early line for Super Bowl XLIV has the AFC listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 47 ?.
--Just to be clear, I don?t want my characterization of Westbrook as oft-injured to be misinterpreted. Westbrook is a workhorse stud that only missed one game last season. I?m not in any way shape or form questioning his toughness. I?m simply saying less touches will be better for him and the team and will lead to him not being ?questionable? on the injury report seemingly every week.
--Five coaches on the hot seat:
1-Wade Phillips (Dallas)
2-Jim Zorn (Washington)
3-Dick Jauron (Buffalo)
4-Norv Turner (San Diego)
5-Brad Childress (Minnesota)
--Jacksonville?s Jack Del Rio and Cincinnati?s Marvin Lewis are also coaches to keep an eye on, but I kept them out of the top-five because their respective franchises clearly don?t want to pink slip them for monetary concerns. If not for those worries, surely both would?ve been canned after dreadful 2008 campaigns?
--The hot-seat list is especially important this season because of the presence of an unbelievable group of free-agent coaches that includes Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden. And that?s leaving Super Bowl winners Brian Billick and Tony Dungy out of the equation, although few think Dungy will ever come out of retirement.
--The presence of Phillips and Zorn in 1-2 order is directly related to their bosses. Owners Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder won?t hesitate for a second to make moves, especially if it means beating the other to Cowher or Shanahan.
