- Nov 17, 2006
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KeyGray we have a problem for GAME 3
- Thread starter dickiesports
- Start date
Just like last season.
Crawford worked game 3 when La was down 2-0 and got them a win.
This also sets things up for Crawford to work ar Game 7 like last season.
Only difference is this series will not make it to game 7.
Lakers in 6, maybe 5.
Crawford worked game 3 when La was down 2-0 and got them a win.
This also sets things up for Crawford to work ar Game 7 like last season.
Only difference is this series will not make it to game 7.
Lakers in 6, maybe 5.
- Nov 17, 2006
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KEY
KEY
READ THIS SHIT.
A lot of gamblers will mistakenly tell you that regular season results are meaningless when handicapping playoff games, but those guys are usually the ones who have no idea how to go about doing any research, not to mention probably being too lazy to bother. The fact is, regular season results are a valuable body of evidence in revealing the true personality of a team. And over an 82-game NBA regular season, certain tendencies, both good and bad, become so obvious in their repetition that they practically wave to you like an old friend. And if you can find tendencies that continue into the playoffs, or better yet - become even stronger - well, now you've really got something. Luckily for us, this year's NBA Finals pits two teams that have enjoyed stability and success for at least several seasons, and over the last two seasons, few major roster changes (with the exception of the rigged trade for Pau Gasol, who played in 59 games for the Lakers last season).
Both of these teams have developed a distinct character. Everyone is more familiar with that of the Lakers because they get much more media coverage than any other team in the league. Orlando's is more of a secret to the casual fan or bettor, but the Magic have quietly become the most dangerous team in basketball when seeking revenge, and no other team rights the ship faster following a loss than the Orlando Magic.
I hope the "experts" on ESPN don't harp on this today, but as most of us around here know, the Magic are pretty good at home following a loss. Last season, the 52-30 Magic played 18 home games following a loss and went 14-4. This season, the team that won 59 games went a perfect 12-0 at home off a loss (8-4 ATS), and in the playoffs they've played even better, not only winning all five games but covering the spread each time, too. Here are the five games:
April 22 - After losing Game 1 to the Sixers, the Magic, laying 8.5, won 96-87
May 8th - After losing Game 2 in Boston, the Magic, laying 4.5, won 117-96
May 14th - After losing Game 5 in Boston, the Magic, laying 7, won 83-75
May 24th - After losing Game 2 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 1.5, won 99-89
May 30th - After losing Game 5 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 2, won 103-90
So for those taking the Lakers on the moneyline, your task is simple. All you need is for your team (famous for picking and choosing their better efforts), to win on the home floor of a team that's won 31 of their last 35 home games when playing off a loss. All you need is for your team to do it against a team that hasn't lost once in this spot this season in 17 tries, and who's won those 17 games by an average of 15.7 points per game.
By the way, the Lakers are a poor 1-3 over the last two playoff seasons on the road when leading a series two games to none, winning only in Denver last year against a Nuggets team they own. This is further evidence of the fact that the Lakers usually don't come to play when their homecourt advantage is not threatened. In fact, between this year and last, the Lakers are a money-burning 4-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs when they have the homecourt advantage in the series. But when they had it, but then lost it, they're a solid 2-0 SU & ATS in trying to regain it. If the Lakers had lost Game 2 to the Magic, I might very well be on them tonight, but they lucked out, so it's a whole different story for Game 3.
KEY
READ THIS SHIT.
A lot of gamblers will mistakenly tell you that regular season results are meaningless when handicapping playoff games, but those guys are usually the ones who have no idea how to go about doing any research, not to mention probably being too lazy to bother. The fact is, regular season results are a valuable body of evidence in revealing the true personality of a team. And over an 82-game NBA regular season, certain tendencies, both good and bad, become so obvious in their repetition that they practically wave to you like an old friend. And if you can find tendencies that continue into the playoffs, or better yet - become even stronger - well, now you've really got something. Luckily for us, this year's NBA Finals pits two teams that have enjoyed stability and success for at least several seasons, and over the last two seasons, few major roster changes (with the exception of the rigged trade for Pau Gasol, who played in 59 games for the Lakers last season).
Both of these teams have developed a distinct character. Everyone is more familiar with that of the Lakers because they get much more media coverage than any other team in the league. Orlando's is more of a secret to the casual fan or bettor, but the Magic have quietly become the most dangerous team in basketball when seeking revenge, and no other team rights the ship faster following a loss than the Orlando Magic.
I hope the "experts" on ESPN don't harp on this today, but as most of us around here know, the Magic are pretty good at home following a loss. Last season, the 52-30 Magic played 18 home games following a loss and went 14-4. This season, the team that won 59 games went a perfect 12-0 at home off a loss (8-4 ATS), and in the playoffs they've played even better, not only winning all five games but covering the spread each time, too. Here are the five games:
April 22 - After losing Game 1 to the Sixers, the Magic, laying 8.5, won 96-87
May 8th - After losing Game 2 in Boston, the Magic, laying 4.5, won 117-96
May 14th - After losing Game 5 in Boston, the Magic, laying 7, won 83-75
May 24th - After losing Game 2 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 1.5, won 99-89
May 30th - After losing Game 5 in Cleveland, the Magic, laying 2, won 103-90
So for those taking the Lakers on the moneyline, your task is simple. All you need is for your team (famous for picking and choosing their better efforts), to win on the home floor of a team that's won 31 of their last 35 home games when playing off a loss. All you need is for your team to do it against a team that hasn't lost once in this spot this season in 17 tries, and who's won those 17 games by an average of 15.7 points per game.
By the way, the Lakers are a poor 1-3 over the last two playoff seasons on the road when leading a series two games to none, winning only in Denver last year against a Nuggets team they own. This is further evidence of the fact that the Lakers usually don't come to play when their homecourt advantage is not threatened. In fact, between this year and last, the Lakers are a money-burning 4-8 ATS on the road in the playoffs when they have the homecourt advantage in the series. But when they had it, but then lost it, they're a solid 2-0 SU & ATS in trying to regain it. If the Lakers had lost Game 2 to the Magic, I might very well be on them tonight, but they lucked out, so it's a whole different story for Game 3.
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As I posted prior to Game 2, the Magic are absolutely phenomenal following a road loss in which Dwight Howard scored at least 12 points and grabbed at least 12 rebounds (in other words - losses that probably weren't his fault). Coming into this season, the Magic had a streak going of 18 consecutive covers in this simple situation. During the 2008-2009 regular season, the spot came up seven more times, and the Magic, despite being favored by an average of 8 points per game, went 7-0 ATS. In the playoffs, this situation has now come up three more times:
On May 6th, Howard scored 12 points and had 12 rebounds in the 112-94 Game 2 loss in Boston. Two nights later, Orlando, laying 4.5, beat Boston, 117-96. COVER
On May 12th, Howard scored 12 points and had 17 rebounds in the 92-88 Game 5 loss in Boston. Two nights later, Orlando, laying 7, beat Boston, 83-75. COVER
On June 4th, Howard scored 12 points and had 15 rebounds in the 100-75 Game 1 loss to the Lakers. Three nights later, Orlando, getting 6.5, lost to the Lakers but covered the spread, 101-96. COVER
That makes it a truly unbelievable 28 consecutive covers against the vaunted Pirates of the Caribbean pointspread for the Orlando Magic. And tonight they go for number 29, as Dwight Howard scored 17 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the Game 2 loss out in L.A. So instead of accepting the tired old line of "trends are made to be broken", ask yourself this - if the Orlando Magic never let down in this situation during the often-mundane regular season, even against the likes of Sacramento, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Milwaukee - then why in the world would you bet against them now? With their chance at the NBA title most definetely ON THE LINE! Well, why? Because they're playing the Lakers? The same Lakers who shamelessly don't show up at all when they don't "need to"? The same Lakers whose head coach's motto in the playoffs is "As long as we've got homecourt advantage, we'll be alright"?
On May 6th, Howard scored 12 points and had 12 rebounds in the 112-94 Game 2 loss in Boston. Two nights later, Orlando, laying 4.5, beat Boston, 117-96. COVER
On May 12th, Howard scored 12 points and had 17 rebounds in the 92-88 Game 5 loss in Boston. Two nights later, Orlando, laying 7, beat Boston, 83-75. COVER
On June 4th, Howard scored 12 points and had 15 rebounds in the 100-75 Game 1 loss to the Lakers. Three nights later, Orlando, getting 6.5, lost to the Lakers but covered the spread, 101-96. COVER
That makes it a truly unbelievable 28 consecutive covers against the vaunted Pirates of the Caribbean pointspread for the Orlando Magic. And tonight they go for number 29, as Dwight Howard scored 17 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in the Game 2 loss out in L.A. So instead of accepting the tired old line of "trends are made to be broken", ask yourself this - if the Orlando Magic never let down in this situation during the often-mundane regular season, even against the likes of Sacramento, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Milwaukee - then why in the world would you bet against them now? With their chance at the NBA title most definetely ON THE LINE! Well, why? Because they're playing the Lakers? The same Lakers who shamelessly don't show up at all when they don't "need to"? The same Lakers whose head coach's motto in the playoffs is "As long as we've got homecourt advantage, we'll be alright"?
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There's a lot of trends that solidly back the Magic tonight. I've picked out what I think are a few of the best ones. You can do what you want with this information. I'm not telling anyone to bet on Orlando, but that's certainly what I'll be doing.
In Game 2 on Sunday night, Rashard Lewis played 45 minutes in the overtime loss. The Magic are 18-1 ATS after losing a road game in which Lewis played more than 40 minutes. Here are the games from this season:
On October 31st, Lewis played 41 minutes in an 86-84 loss in Memphis. In their next game, the Magic, laying 11, beat Sacramento, 121-103. COVER
On December 1st, Lewis played 43 minutes in a 107-88 loss in Boston. In their next game, the Magic, laying 9.5, beat Minnesota, 100-89. COVER
On January 4th, Lewis played 42 minutes in a 108-102 loss in Toronto. In their next game, the Magic, laying 12.5, beat Washington, 89-80. DIDN'T COVER
On March 9th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 98-94 loss in Detroit. In their next game, the Magic, laying 8, beat Chciago, 107-79. COVER
On May 6th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 112-94 loss in Boston in Game 2. In Game 3, the Magic, laying 4.5, beat Boston, 117-96. COVER
On May 22nd, Lewis played 43 minutes in a 96-95 loss in Cleveland in Game 2. In Game 3, the Magic, laying 1.5, beat Cleveland, 99-89. COVER
On May 28th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 112-102 loss in Cleveland in Game 5. In Agme 6, the Magic, laying 2, beat Cleveland, 103-90. COVER
That's 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season, and if you'll allow me, I'd like to make an excuse for the one time they didn't cover. That was the now famous "Caron Butler Game", the night the Washington Wizards' Caron Butler inexplicably went nuts, scoring 29 points in the 2nd half and single-handedly backdooring the Magic, who blew a 16-point halftime lead. And when I say "now famous", I mean famous to those who laid the points that night. Like I did, and for a good amount of money. Okay, a lot of money.
There is a similar trend featuring Dwight Howard. The Magic are 22-1 ATS with at least one day of rest after losing a road game in which Howard played more than 40 minutes. The one ATS loss was by one point, and it came in an Orlando win. In Game 4 of the Philadelphia series, the Magic were favored by 4 over the Sixers and they won by 3 on a Turkoglu three-pointer with one second left. Howard had played 45 minutes in the Game 3 loss in Philadelphia
In Game 2 on Sunday night, Rashard Lewis played 45 minutes in the overtime loss. The Magic are 18-1 ATS after losing a road game in which Lewis played more than 40 minutes. Here are the games from this season:
On October 31st, Lewis played 41 minutes in an 86-84 loss in Memphis. In their next game, the Magic, laying 11, beat Sacramento, 121-103. COVER
On December 1st, Lewis played 43 minutes in a 107-88 loss in Boston. In their next game, the Magic, laying 9.5, beat Minnesota, 100-89. COVER
On January 4th, Lewis played 42 minutes in a 108-102 loss in Toronto. In their next game, the Magic, laying 12.5, beat Washington, 89-80. DIDN'T COVER
On March 9th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 98-94 loss in Detroit. In their next game, the Magic, laying 8, beat Chciago, 107-79. COVER
On May 6th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 112-94 loss in Boston in Game 2. In Game 3, the Magic, laying 4.5, beat Boston, 117-96. COVER
On May 22nd, Lewis played 43 minutes in a 96-95 loss in Cleveland in Game 2. In Game 3, the Magic, laying 1.5, beat Cleveland, 99-89. COVER
On May 28th, Lewis played 41 minutes in a 112-102 loss in Cleveland in Game 5. In Agme 6, the Magic, laying 2, beat Cleveland, 103-90. COVER
That's 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS this season, and if you'll allow me, I'd like to make an excuse for the one time they didn't cover. That was the now famous "Caron Butler Game", the night the Washington Wizards' Caron Butler inexplicably went nuts, scoring 29 points in the 2nd half and single-handedly backdooring the Magic, who blew a 16-point halftime lead. And when I say "now famous", I mean famous to those who laid the points that night. Like I did, and for a good amount of money. Okay, a lot of money.
There is a similar trend featuring Dwight Howard. The Magic are 22-1 ATS with at least one day of rest after losing a road game in which Howard played more than 40 minutes. The one ATS loss was by one point, and it came in an Orlando win. In Game 4 of the Philadelphia series, the Magic were favored by 4 over the Sixers and they won by 3 on a Turkoglu three-pointer with one second left. Howard had played 45 minutes in the Game 3 loss in Philadelphia
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Here's one I really like. The Magic are 10-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they had the lead at the end of the 3rd quarter and then blew it. The Magic had a 65-63 lead going into the 4th quarter on Sunday night. Two of those ten pointspread winners happened in this year's playoffs. The Magic blew a 67-59 lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 5 in Boston but rebounded with a win and cover in Game 6. They were leading Cleveland 79-78 at the end of the 3rd quarter in Game 5 before Lebron put on his one-man show in the 4th quarter. They bounced back in a big way with an easy 103-90 win in Game 6. And I'd like to make another excuse for them for the one time they didn't cover. Way back on October 31st, playing in their second game of the season, the Magic were upset in Memphis, 86-84. When Memphis came to Orlando, the Magic won but failed to cover, beating them 81-78 as huge 14-point favorites. The thing is, the rematch happened on April 8th, Orlando's 78th game of the season. So that means 76 games and 159 days went by in between Orlando's 86-84 loss and their chance for revenge. I think 5.5 months may have been enough to make them forgive and forget. Furthermore, the Magic had played and lost in Houston the night before, and the sad fact of the matter is they simply didn't give a shit about beating up on the Memphis Grizzlies. I say "sad" because I bet on Orlando that night and it was apparent early on that they were mailing in the effort. I have no such concerns for tonight.
- Nov 17, 2006
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SO KEY
SO KEY
WE HAVE CONFLICTING TRENDS GOING BOTH WAYS FOR OVER 90%.
WHAT DOES THAT CORRUPT FUCKER WANT TONIGHT SENDING IN CRAWFORD ?
SO KEY
WE HAVE CONFLICTING TRENDS GOING BOTH WAYS FOR OVER 90%.
WHAT DOES THAT CORRUPT FUCKER WANT TONIGHT SENDING IN CRAWFORD ?
