NBA TUE 06092009 early thoughts - value hunting (Finals)

vtfiyaboi

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Mar 21, 2009
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b/c their last home games were 99, 116, 103... =X but this is the finals.. so i dunno ... could go under. they do play good D against eachother
 

Griffin8s

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I think you are right. I am also 2-0 so far in this series. I didn't watch the last game but even went under with OT. How can you not bet the under.:00hour
 

gjn23

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game 1 = 175
game 2 = 176

both unders in reg were by 25-30 points.

orlando should try and push the pace, but la is due for an offensive clunker, esp on the road where they score less than 90
 

Statman02

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had the under for both of the first two games ......but this is different...........last five times
lakers have played at Orlando have produced five overs.......Orlando goes all out balls to the wall tonight.......should be an easy over and a win to boot.......Orlando in this playoff season is 7/0 ats as a home fave off an away game
 

Truckin'

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Info from other source

Orlando's '1' Spot - AND GUARD PLAY IN GENERAL has been so vacant offensively thru 7 qtrs of NBA Finals (FIVE 1\2's | Guards: 14-41 TWO-PTRS, 6-28 THREES, ECT) that maybe no one ELSE really noticed when Van Gundy threw caution to the wind in 4th Qtr and ran w\ZERO PG's on Floor for significant stretch - it nearly worked. YET - BALL-HANDLING MISHAPS AND ERRANT BALL-HANDLING THAT RESULTED HAD EQUALLY MEASURABLE DOWNSIDE(S):

Hence, all the Turnovers: Orl 20.
Thus, the stagnant Pace: 86.5.
Therefore, a Doltish Regulation Point Total: 176 Points.
To top it off; adding insult to injury and urine to the Oats, the once-in-a-blue-moon UNDER, OT Final.

HOWEVER - WE STILL HAVE GLIMPSES OF AN ORLANDO OUT-BURST FROM MAGIC OFFENSE THAT IS WAITING TO HAPPEN - AND DID BREAK-THRU FOR SHORT BUT SIGNIFICANT POSSESSIONS IN GAME 2. Late 3rd we finally SAW 'E-O' from ORL ISOLATING LEWIS - ALMOST ALL OF THESE EFFECTIVE LEWIS MATCH-UP VARIATIONS SAW LEWIS SCORE AT WILL - EARLY IN POSSESSION(S):

RASHARD LEWIS - WHEN HE HEATED UP IN 3RD AND 4TH, 'E-O':

ON GASOL - FROM P&P, PERIMETER J's
ON ODOM - WHOM JUST LOST HIM IN THE WEAVE & SCISSOR BASELINE CUTS
ON ARIZA - WHOM LEWIS BACKED-DOWN, and really surprised and DOMINATED
Unfortunately - even though Lewis singlehandedly attacked LA Lakers in QUICK HITTING possessions, and E-O, ORLANDO's inept PG Position and Orl's insistence on the poorly functioning, back-track of TURKOGLU TO HOWARD, BASELINE-PICK-AND-ROLL safety-valve they'd counted on all year to provide 'I-O' - which now results in bundles of EMPTY POSSESSIONS, all options and stubborn habits that slowed pace waaaaayyyy down and allowed LAL to never lose too much ground - and gave Orlando's Offense the meager numbers we just do not see compared to their own robust standard, 'Top 2/5ths' (#12 of 30 NBA Teams) Pace.

Orlando again had terrific execution - plenty enough to return home 1-1; just awful timing:

74% FT, Only 7 MISSED, yet 5 of the 7 came BTB; mid-4th Q!

So what happens now? ORL MINDSET:

Instead of Chasing that 'One that Got Away'...The Magic truly seem excited about being HOME ..FINALLY -

FIRST Home Game in 10 DAYS,
ONLY 2ND in 14
Magic Coaching Notes from Film Work and Shoot-around indicated they'd taken a blunt approach to missed shots - taking a 'We Got GOOD SHOTS' attitude into last game - which worked somewhat...and should pay dividends tomorrow, too.

SEVERAL THINGS ARE CERTAIN -

I. ORL'S BIG LINE-UP'S WORKED vs LAL:

ZERO PG LINE-UP WE MENTIONED GAVE LAL MAJOR MATCH-UP ISSUES - AND ACTUALLY GAVE ORLANDO THE GREAT UP-TEMPO, SPREAD COURT OPPORTUNITIES, AND SHOT ATTEMPTS THEY LOVE - WHEN LAL'S DEFENSE ISN'T STABLE
II. ORL Successfully EXPERIMENTED w\'All-Bigs' many times this Yr-

REDICK 'PG'
TURK - 'POINT FORWARD'
D HOWARD
LEWIS
GORTAT
ORLANDO'S INSISTENCE THAT PICK-AND-ROLL WAS UNSUCCESSFUL, AND THIS BIG LINE-UP WORKED UNTIL ODOM KEPT SEEKING OUT GORTAT WHEN LAL GOT INTO TRANSITION - AND ORL PRESUMABLY COULDN'T SURVIVE TRADING BASKETS AT THAT POINT, OR HAVING HOWARD CONTINUE TO CHASE FRESH LEGGED ODOM ALL OVER THE COURT - & ADJUSTED BACK TO HALF-COURT, STRENGTH ON STRENGTH. FROM EVERYTHING WRITTEN AND NOTED - ORL HAS SHIFTED GAME-PLAN TO THIS 'BIG'S ARE BEST' v LAL, 'E-O' STRATEGY; THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CAUSE THE GAME TO TRULY BE INEVITABLY UP. MORE ON THIS AS INFO CONTINUES TO TRICKLE IN.

At this point - Orlando in must win has been almost as pleased - although in huge hole - to have pc-of-mind that they made steady progress - and can get over the hump and get a win tonight at Home. IF - big IF, this comes down to ONE possession, we will take a position.

Right now - the lean is with just ONE cautious Unit on a 5 pt Teaser:

1 UNIT

5 POINT TEASER:

LA LAKERS AT ORLANDO

ORLANDO +1 TO OVER 193

----------------------------------------------------

I. STAN VAN GUNDY - On BIG Lineup arrangement; NINE MINUTES+, Mid-2nd Half without a POINTGUARD; Redick and Turkoglu splitting ball-handling duties:

We were just seeing if we could get somebody out there who would be able to make shots off the double teams, and off the pick-and-rolls, and stuff like that."
One would suspect VG is attempting to deflect emphasis; Put the Cat back in the proverbial bag. This indicates - from Van Gundy's reversal of field here - that we ought to expect MUCH MORE of the BIG Line-up, and A GOOD DEAL OF QUICK-HITTING, EARLY-OFFENSE. ALSO - INDICATOR that TURKOGLU will be moved around a great deal - and will have ball in hands early and often when Magic have ball: Turkoglu with max touches is nothing but GOOD for Orlando. He is quite possibly the single toughest match-up for ANY TEAM, at ANY position, and is amazingly versatile and consistent:

Versitle: 6-10 'BIG' Led Magic in Assts: 5.1 Reg Season
Consistent: Exactly 5.1 Assts in Playoffs also, entering Finals
Getting Turk AWAY from Ariza is the 3rd Benefit of BIG Lineup - as Ariza is the first guy to really get into Turkoglu's effective passing game (not only was Turkouglu just 3-11 in Game One, he managed just 2 asst | Now, Turkoglu is 11-28 for Series, and just 6 asst TTL). When ORL goes BIG - Ariza is often left switched onto LEWIS = GOOD NEWS for Orl, with Lewis' ability to exploit Ariza's one weakness - post defense strength.

I-A. STAN VAN GUNDY - On Poor Guard play, and Orlando's desperation to overcome vacant Guard Production:

''Our guards were 6 for 26. L.A.'s defense was good, but I thought our guards for the most part had very good open looks,'' he said. ''For the most part, we just couldn't knock anything down.''
Just more reinforcement for Up-Tempo game, PLAN-B that we will see tonight.

OH, and I must admit to the Nelson "Chemistry" Factor turning out to be PRETTY REAL - although the Jury is still out a bit, I get the impression that I was DEAD WRONG.

II. PHIL JACKSON: On Magic's Amway Atmosphere, and Orlando's Offensive Mindset for Game 3:

"You're going to see a wide-open game," Lakers Coach Phil Jackson said. "It's going to be a much more free-flowing game, up-tempo."

Again, thinking as a contrarian \ wagering thought pattern, one might suggest LAL has conscious plan to disrupt this FLOW.

III. DWIGHT HOWARD: On frustrating double teams of LAL thrown at him:

"They're mixing it up on me," Howard said. "They're doing some crazy things and it's been frustrating me a bit. . . . I've just got to really do my homework and try to find ways to beat it."
Pick-and-Roll, ad-nauseum. As late in Game 2, I still believe that Orlando will follow-thru on their 'PLAN-B'; circumvent LAL's Overplay, and FORCE the action thru more ball-swing and POST-UP's of more favorable match-ups, such as LEWIS vs ARIZA, Redick vs Fisher\Farmar, ect.
IV. LAMAR ODOM: On return of his Injury, "Body Language' near end of Game 2:

"I'm tired as hell, excuse my language. I'm tight, my back is tight."
Odom doesn't hide pain well - and when he's not right - he doesn't play through pain well at all (and who can blame him?). No problem with a guy being injured - it just isn't the best move to tip your hand, however.

PROP BETTOR-ALERT! (Your ears burning yet, Matty?)

V. 2-0 LAKER LEAD - Misc quotes, LAL Commanding position:

As we all know, 2-3-2 Format resigns Orlando to not only win 4 of 5 to win title, but the Magic could sweep all 3 Middle Home Games, and still be forced to win a Game back in LA for Title.

LAL: Insisting (predictably) they're focused; despite piece-of-mind knowing they have Games 6 & 7 back in Staples to fall back on. IN ADDITION to ODOM's injury admission, and the QUICK travel \ turnaround very small yet perceptible clues that LAL IS resting a bit on these fall-back games:

"We're playing tougher," forward Pau Gasol said. "We understand what it takes to go get the championship."
"What's there to be happy about?" Kobe Bryant asked. "The job's not finished."
I truly get the idea that LAL is attempting to manufacture urgency; and convince themselves of the task to win tonight in Orlando. Not seeing Kobe's clenched fist, teeth grind, ect. LAL - even PHIL, appear pretty Low-Key; with Odom factor adding to possibly seeing a return of, 'LAKER-LITE' tonight in C Fla.

ORL: Insisting they have made progress and plan to protect Home Court:

"Coach talked about being up against it in the locker room," forward Rashard Lewis said. "This is nothing new for us."
"We play better at home," center Dwight Howard said. "We tend to run more. Shots fall more. I expect all of us to play better."
"We've just got to go home and take care of business," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "The Lakers did a good job of protecting their home, and now it's our turn to do the same thing. We've been in some tough situations. We've just got to fight our way out."
MISC. Quotes - FYI:

This taken from a very entertaining LAL Fan Blog - and great read, called: 'Purple and Gold: Round the Clock", by The Kamenetzky Brothers; sort of a Skalar Brothers \ Bob and Doug Mackenzie, 'Strange Brew" - timeless, 'Two-Geeks-Sitting-on-a-Couch', observational humor, ect]

Great line from Shannon Brown. Asked if he was holding his breath as rookie Courtney Lee missed a wide open, potentially game winning layup, which led to OT and an eventual Laker win, Brown shook his head and smiled.

"I wanted to live."
In my humble opinion, we can gain IMMENSE amounts of valuable info from quotes and sound bytes that so many cappers dismiss as 'useless noise, or 'Pre-canned, Coach-speak'.

Still working on a possible selection - in addition to the Game 3, ONE UNIT TEASER already dropped in. To be truthful, we're just waiting (hoping), for the number to get to ORL -3; which ~ on GAMEDAY, 'If it hasn't happened already', most likely will NOT come. IF IT DOES, the research indicates a good not great, ORL wager w\the ONE POSSESSION being KEY, 1.5 UNITS | ORL -3. If we get ORL, -3.5, I have no problem buying a hook to ORL -3, yet this drops our VIG enough to also drop the WAGER count to 1 UNIT, on this end.

MORE TO COME
 

grindstone

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Mar 18, 2009
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Hey gang,

I think there's only one solid play tonight...why not ride the Under @ 2-0?



BOLTA


Here are the public #'s

LAL/ORL

Total
75% Over
25% Under

This total opened at 199 and it dropped 1/2- 1 full point and the the public keeps pounding the Over :shrug: Something doesn't smell right

Spread
64% LAL
36 % ORL

I will have to still lean under here. Anything locked up yet AX???

I sent you an email Sir GL
 

KillerKardoogan

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Mar 22, 2009
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Crawford being there has to favor Orlando (unless, of course, his new programming malfunctions and his factory defaults reset).

Stern tries to manipulate a lot of things, but the only one I've consistently seen take effect is GET LAKERS TO FINALS. Now that they're there, he has to want to prevent this series from being a sweep more than he wants to build the legend of Harold Miner (whoops, I mean Kobe).
 

Ace_Ace

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Mar 22, 2009
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Did very well in game 2 .



Magic ML --- 6 Units

Magic -4 --- 4 Units



Magic 1st half -2.5 -- 3 units


Will also bet live on this.......Gl to all:toast:
 

sfmoney

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Mar 4, 2009
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ML???

ML???

Right now I see -200 ML and -4.5 for Orl. Doesn't that ML appear low and suggest Lakers? I'd expect a -220 ML at -4.5 if there was a higher confidence level on the books part. :shrug:

I'm not saying bet LAL but make sure people notice and consider.
 

ShivaShante

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Nov 10, 2005
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The Dirty 'Ham, AL
What do you get when you combine UNBELIEVABLE shot making by Kobe and the whole Magic team with ZERO DEFENSE being played by either team?

OOOOVERRRRRRR!:sadwave:

Oh well, glad there's a 2nd half!:shrug:
 

Ace_Ace

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Mar 22, 2009
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:director: Greek gave me ORL -3 +110 for 2nd QT ...took it live for 7 Units

Lets Go magic...........
:0corn
 

Ace_Ace

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Mar 22, 2009
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Come on lakers win 3rd qt

so I can take Magic 4th qt.....:142smilie


Hope to get good line for 4th...:director:
 

KillerKardoogan

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Mar 22, 2009
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Nice night Ace.
Glad to see someone made out with live betting.
I had two different joints not take my in-game bets tonight.
 
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