Thursday?s Top System Suits Baltimore

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Thursday?s Top System Suits Baltimore



The return of interleague play picks up tomorrow; however before then is the matter of finishing off series within each team?s respective league. The Baltimore Orioles have been grounded since putting together a five-game winning streak at the end of May and have lost eight of last 10 games. The O?s could take a step in the right direction of ending this slump by overcoming Seattle and winning a series.

Baltimore?s troubles are easily traced to lack of hitting, as they have gotten as many as four runs only once in last 10 tries. The Orioles (25-34, -7.2 units) slump has seen them fall to ninth in batting average in the American League and 10th in runs scored. Today they will match up with a former teammate, now pitching for Seattle (29-30, -1.6 units), Garrett Olson.

The 25-year old Olson (0-1, 4.39 ERA) will be returning to Camden Yards for the first time, making his first appearance in another uniform. The left-hander gives up a lot of groundballs, which could be construed as bad luck, but most are hit with velocity and are quasi-line drives, just with a couple of bounces. Though the Orioles are far from pitching-rich, the biggest reason Olson was traded is he never developed an ?out-pitch? to keep opposing batters off-balance and finish them off. This will be his fourth start and he has also come out of the bullpen six times this season, as the Mariners seek to find a role for Olson.

Bookmaker.com has Baltimore as a -156 money line favorite, with total of nine. A super situation arises this evening favoring the Birds and it reads this way:

PLAY ON all favorites with money line of -125 to -175, who are below average American League hitting team (BA .265 or less), against an average starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.70 to 5.70, playing on a Thursday.

What this 84.1 percent system is telling us is if a team is below the norm as hitters, yet can still be this heavy a favorite, they must be in a very good situation. The record of 37-7 dates back to 1997 and in the last five years, this system has clicked off 10 of 11 winners, with average margin of victory 2.6 runs.

It is true, the Orioles are impatient lot, nevertheless, the Mariners are 13-30 (-18.1 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three or less walks a game. After completing your afternoon wagers, the O?s might be worth a look in night action.
 

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Thursday's Afternoon Action

Thursday's Afternoon Action

Thursday's Afternoon Action

Did you see Colorado?s current seven-game winning streak coming? How about the Cardinals recent implosion? Or what about Seattle?s 21-6 ?under? record in the last 27 (including six straight ?under? plays in the last six games)?

Whether you caught one or all of those trends or missed the boat entirely, don?t worry because Thursday is chock full of action to capitalize on. Focusing on the afternoon hours, eight games will challenge our wallets. Are you prepared to take this card to the bank?

Pittsburgh at Atlanta ? 1:00 p.m. EDT

Having taken three in a row as $2.07, $1.36 and $1.13 favorites (in descending order) against the Pirates (27-32, +23), the Braves (29-29, -501) will shift focus to improving on their 7-4 record in the last 11 home games. Atlanta is packing the second best BA at .296 during the daytime and a middle of the pack, 103 runs scored has actually stimulated a 4-1 ?over? record when the total has been placed at eight runs during the daytime. Even when 10-run totals have been set, the ?over? is cashing at a 4-2 clip (again, at home during the day).

After hours viewing on Wednesday witnessed ATL dropping Game 3 in this series, 3-2. The biggest news was books listing the Braves' Jair Jurrjens as a hefty, minus-201 favorite, thus cutting into their overall money line profit.

Atlanta is planning to start Javier Vazquez (4-5, 3.54). The Braves are 0-3 in his last three starts, losing backers a total of minus-4.34 units on the money line. But giving up 2.3 runs per game isn?t all that poor. A 2-4 ?under? record in his last six starts has been a result.

Pittsburgh is just 9-12 during the day. A 4.23 ERA and .271 BAA followed by the hitting department making contact for a .262 BA while scoring 93 runs helps explain daytime problems in the standings. Lefty, Paul Maholm (4-2, 3.94) is 10-12 lifetime with a 5.01 ERA in 37 starts during day games. But a .298 BAA and a .806 on base percentage allowed are numbers to watch out for (all daytime figures).

The Braves are tagging southpaws for a .276 BA and 91 RBIs is fifth best in the Majors.

Pittsburgh is 9-28 in its last 37 meetings in Atlanta.

As Wednesday came to a close most books had the Braves listed as 'chalky' $1.70 favorites. A low total of eight runs has been set. Atlanta is 12-6 on the 'over' during afternoon play while the Pirates are just over .500 at 11-9 on the 'over'.

Colorado at Milwaukee ? 2:05 p.m. EDT

We begin this preview by stating Milwaukee?s (33-26, +738) league leading, 2.84 ERA during day games. Ok, with the obvious number in the open, the Brewers have been less then impressive. A 7-11 record in the last 18 coupled with being listed as the underdog six times in the last nine games has placed a ?buyers beware? tag on this franchise. At least starting pitcher, Yovani Gallardo (6-2, 2.84 ERA) could end up making or braking Thursday?s bets. Gallardo is an outstanding 2-0 in four starts during the day. And how can you beat a 0.33 ERA and a.162 BAA during these day time shifts?

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The Rockies (27-32, -363) are seven games deep in a winning streak thanks to sweeping St. Louis in a four-game series (now six straight victories versus the Cards in the last six meetings) and taking Wednesday's Game 2, 4-2 in Milwaukee. Colorado will entrust Aaron Cook (4-3, 4.50) for the 28th win of the season. His 2-3 record while surrendering 6.4 runs per game (including runs surrendered by relief pitchers) adds to the volatility in backing the team but it?s not like the Rockies haven?t been faced with adversity before.

The ?over? is 9-2-1 in Cook?s last 12 starts and 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings. The Rockies have reign dominance in this matchup, tendering a 9-3 performance in the last 12 mettings. However, the Brewers have countered at home in head-to-head meetings by going 10-5.

Minnesota at Oakland ? 3:35 p.m. EDT

A serious problem surrounding the Twins (30-31, -194) is an 8-22 record playing on natural grass. That means that Minnesota?s 21-12 home record and 9-19 away performance are stark contrasts to how this team plays at home versus on the road. Starting slinger Nick Blackburn is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA on the road this season. Even more inspiring is his personal 3-0 record in his last four starts and the Twins? three wins and one loss during the same stretch. The ?under? is also 3-0 in Blackburn?s last three starts and 6-2-1 in the last nine. Not hard to picture when Blackburn is responsible for allowing just 1.9 earned runs per game in the same nine starts.

Beginning with three straight wins as $1.22, $1.25 and $1.56 visiting underdogs against the White Sox, Oakland (26-32, -384) was able to string out four more victories for a total of seven in a row. A loss against Minnesota on Tuesday (10-5) ended that run. Now the Twinkies will be looking to Trevor Cahill (3-5, 4.21) to get them back on track. The problem here is that Cahill is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA during day games. Getting 4.5 runs of support per start overall equates to a run difference of plus-1.7 on the season. So although the offense hasn?t been blistering in his starts, Cahill is getting almost a two run cushion to work with.

Take into account that without home field advantage in its favor, Minnesota and its opponents have excelled at hitting the ?over?, currently standing at 18-8-2 this year. But coming off a road win, the Twins are 5-1 on the ?under? in the following road game.

Currently, books have listed the Athletics as light, $1.07 home favorites with a total of 8 1/2.

Extra Innings

-- San Francisco (31-27, +411) looks to stretch out a 6-2 record in the last eight when it encounters Arizona (25-35, -1214). The Giants have opened the books as $1.30 visiting underdogs. A run total of nine has been set in the early hours on the board.

-- Arizona is 7-3 on the ?over? during home-day games when the total has been posted at nine runs. The club is averaging a total of 10 ?-runs during day games at home (runs produced combined with runs alloweed). What this says is the pitching staff has logged in a 4.25 ERA during the day this season.

-- Max Scherzer (2-4, 4.10) takes the ball on Thursday. His 2-2 record in the last seven starts is far from effective although the Diamondbacks are 4-2 in his last six starts. And a 1-2 record followed by a 7.46 ERA at home could be partial importance for the fade alert to be signaled.

-- The talk of the town could be the Giants? 5-2 stranglehold on ?Zona this season, but Thursday?s starter must be addressed. Jonathan Sanchez (2-5, 5.19) giving up 3.6 runs per game isn?t the strongest of stats and a 1.65 WHIP despite both righties and lefties hitting for a .248 BA could justify the +130 price on San Fran (bet $100 to make $130). But the D-backs are struggling hardcore against southpaws with a .230 BA and a .323 OBP.

-- The ?under? is 6-3-1 in the last nine meetings in Arizona. The Diamondbacks are just 3-9 in their last 12 home games. But don?t be so surprised. Arizona has 12-20 overall home record can be partially attributed to owning the worst home cooking ERA at 5.49. Another damaging stat for the fade play include the D-backs going 1-10 when coming off a home win in their next home stand (although Wednesday's loss against Frisco, 6-4 has nullified this trend for today). The 'under' is also 9-3-1 in the last 13 overall head-to-heads.
 

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ASA: Bullpen Banter

ASA: Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter
June 10, 2009



Thriving ? Minnesota Twins

I?m going to throw Tuesday night?s bullpen performance out for now as an aberration. The Twins won the game 10-5 over Oakland, but they led 10-0 entering the 9th. Starter Scott Baker pitched brilliantly until the 9th where he ran out of gas giving up three runs. Relievers Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares didn?t fair any better and in fact, Joe Nathan was able to pick up his 12th save even though his team had a 10-run lead entering the 9th. Again, despite that poor inning on Tuesday, I?m still sticking with the Twins as my ?hot? bullpen.

If you simply look at long term numbers, you wouldn?t put the Twins bullpen in this spot. However, they are coming together nicely as of late. They have ranked toward the bottom of the A.L. for much of the early season, however they have dropped their ERA down to 4.21 with some recent success. One overlooked factor in the bullpen?s early struggles was the absence of catcher Joe Mauer. His replacement for the month of April was rookie Jose Morales who was shaky defensively. He also wasn?t really familiar with the Minnesota hurlers or opposing hitters which can be a big detriment to a pitching staff. Since Mauer returned in May, the results from the pitchers have been much more positive.



Joe Nathan remains one of the top closers in baseball with 12 saves in 14 opportunities and an ERA of 2.01. Nathan had a whopping 197 saves from 2004 through 2008. That?s an average of 39.4 saves per season. He is a constant that isn?t going away. As far as middle relief and set up men, Minnesota is looking solid. Luis Ayala struggled early in the year but has now given up only one earned run in his last eight appearances. Opposing batters are hitting just .216 against Ayala during that eight game stint. Lefty specialist Sean Henn was called up from the minors in mid-May to replace Craig Breslow who was waived. Henn has been solid in his nine appearances with an ERA of 2.70. As I mentioned earlier, Jose Mijares pitched poorly on Tuesday night, however he has been very good giving up only two earned runs in his last 10 trips to the mound. Matt Guerrier has been a great innings eater with 28 appearances without a loss this season. Knuckle baller R.A. Dickey has also been a very effective long inning man and his ERA is just 2.45. The only glaring weak link right now in the pen is Jesse Crain. He pitched poorly on Tuesday and has all season with an ERA over 8.00.

The Minnesota starting rotation is not performing as well as most expected, however their bullpen is really coming around. The Twins have already won three one-run games in June and their bullpen has had a lot to do with that. They are back near the .500 mark and if they are to make a run at the A.L. Central again in 2009, the bullpen will have an important say in that.

Struggling ? Arizona Diamondbacks

This is the polar opposite situation when comparing it to my Minnesota analysis above. That?s because Arizona has been really under performing in the bullpen with the exception of last Sunday when they put up nine innings of scoreless relief in a 9-6, 18-inning win over San Diego. Again, as I did with Minnesota, I?ll call this an aberration as the D-Back?s relievers were reeling for the most part and the Padre hitters are last in the Majors with an average of just .236. Truth be told, the relievers got the team into that situation to begin with as starter Dan Haren pitched a gem only to have the pen allow five runs in the 9th to push the game to extra innings. Thus, I?m sticking with Arizona as my struggling bullpen.

As a whole, this bullpen has the fourth worst ERA in baseball at 4.91. They also allow their opponents to rip the cover off the ball on their way to a .274 average. That is also the fourth worst mark in the Majors. They have walked 105 batters while striking out only 136. That 1.29 strikeout to walk ratio is the second worst for any bullpen in all of baseball. Despite solid efforts this season from their starting rotation, this team is in last place in the N.L. West and they currently sport the 3rd worst record in all of baseball. Three starters have put up very solid numbers (Dan Haren 2.33 ERA, Doug Davis 3.36 ERA and Max Scherzer 4.10 ERA) and the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the Majors in quality starts at 33. Yet despite those solid stats, this team is near the bottom of the league well below .500. That tells you enough about their bullpen?s performance.

It?s been even worse as of late. The relievers have allowed five or more runs in three of the last seven games. Arizona has won only two of those seven games despite having a lead entering the 5th inning in four of their five losses. The only game they did not lead was tied at zero in the 6th inning. In other words, they had a great chance to win most or all of those games but all turned into losses. The bullpen was at fault for most.

Not only have the D-Back relievers pitched poorly, they have also had some bad luck. Tom Gordon was counted on to be a solid, veteran out of the pen, however he injured his hamstring early and has not come back. Gordon has pitched only 1.2 innings this year. Lefty Scott Schoeneweis was sporting an ERA of just 2.53 when his wife passed away in mid-May. He took a long leave of absence and actually considered retiring. He has since decided to return and was just reactivated on Tuesday but hasn?t pitched since May 16th. Also, key starter Brandon Webb has been a nice ?relief? in the past for the pen as he has a tendency to pitch deep into games. Webb has been out since April 6th but should be back soon which should help. Excuses or not, the Arizona bullpen better improve quickly or this team will stay at the bottom of the N.L. West.

BULLPEN POTENTIAL COMINGS AND GOINGS

Houston Astros ? Interim closer LaTroy Hawkins has done a great job replacing Jose Valverde who went on the D.L. in late April. Hawkins has saved eight of his 10 opportunities with an ERA of 2.55. Valverde is scheduled to come off the D.L. this weekend and that could put Hawkins on the trading block. Despite having a top notch closer, the Minnesota Twins have shown some interest in Hawkins.

Cleveland Indians ? If the Indians don?t get back into the A.L. Central race soon, closer Kerry Wood has the interest of a number of teams that are currently in contention. Wood?s numbers aren?t all that impressive with an ERA that exceeds 5.00, however he has saved eight of his ten chances in 2009.

Los Angeles Angels ? No names have officially surfaced, however you can expect the Angels to aggressively pursue some relief help. They are currently three games behind Texas in the A.L. West, however if it weren?t for their horrendous bullpen (worst ERA in the Majors), the Halos would be comfortably in first place in that division.
 

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Totals Report

Totals Report

Totals Report

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TOTALS REPORT
Team Total Home Away Streak
Arizona Diamondbacks 29 - 27 20 - 12 9 - 15 Over-6
Atlanta Braves 25 - 30 13 - 16 12 - 14 Under-2
Baltimore Orioles 31 - 27 13 - 18 18 - 9 Under-3
Boston Red Sox 24 - 28 11 - 14 13 - 14 Push-1
Chicago Cubs 24 - 30 12 - 14 12 - 16 Under-2
Chicago White Sox 24 - 39 9 - 27 15 - 12 Under-1
Cincinnati Reds 24 - 32 15 - 12 9 - 20 Under-2
Cleveland Indians 35 - 25 13 - 15 22 - 10 Over-3
Colorado Rockies 30 - 27 15 - 7 15 - 20 Under-3
Detroit Tigers 24 - 34 12 - 15 12 - 19 Under-1
Florida Marlins 29 - 27 19 - 11 10 - 16 Over-1
Houston Astros 24 - 31 13 - 19 11 - 12 Under-2
Kansas City Royals 28 - 28 17 - 12 11 - 16 Over-2
Los Angeles Angels 27 - 27 11 - 13 16 - 14 Over-1
Los Angeles Dodgers 30 - 27 15 - 15 15 - 12 Under-1
Milwaukee Brewers 26 - 31 10 - 16 16 - 15 Under-2
Minnesota Twins 26 - 30 19 - 12 7 - 18 Over-2
New York Mets 26 - 28 13 - 14 13 - 14 Over-2
New York Yankees 29 - 26 16 - 11 13 - 15 Push-1
Oakland Athletics 28 - 30 15 - 15 13 - 15 Over-2
Philadelphia Phillies 27 - 26 9 - 15 18 - 11 Over-3
Pittsburgh Pirates 29 - 29 11 - 14 18 - 15 Under-2
San Diego Padres 29 - 27 13 - 14 16 - 13 Under-1
San Francisco Giants 28 - 26 14 - 11 14 - 15 Over-2
Seattle Mariners 24 - 35 12 - 17 12 - 18 Under-6
St. Louis Cardinals 27 - 30 14 - 19 13 - 11 Over-1
Tampa Bay Rays 30 - 28 15 - 12 15 - 16 Over-1
Texas Rangers 23 - 33 12 - 15 11 - 18 Under-5
Toronto Blue Jays 30 - 30 14 - 16 16 - 14 Under-4
Washington Nationals 26 - 28 13 - 17 13 - 11 Under-7


Updated Thu Jun 11 9:00 AM EDT
 
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