Been pretty successful, so I need to start posting my plays.
Boston (Lester) -125 over Philly (Blanton) for $250
+$200
Lots of reasons to like Lester at a good price here. The interleague factor comes into play, coupled with the fact that the Phils haven't been great at home.
I really think the Red Sox have the better of the pitching matchup...and it's not really close. Lester's k'd better than a man an inning, he's not walking guys, and his inflated ERA is the result of some bad luck with his HR/FB rate. He's taken it to two good offenses in his last 2 outings, and I expect that to continue against a heavily left-handed Philly side.
Atlanta (Hanson)/Baltimore (Berken) under 10 (-105) for $150.
+$143
Love the under here, with Berken being significantly better at home than he is on the road. He's probably not long for the rotation at this point, but I'd expect him to handle the Braves lineup effectively.
On the other side, Hanson flashed brilliant stuff in his debut, but made a couple of key mistakes. The Orioles lineup has been scuffling a little bit here lately, with Nolan Remoid and Luke Scott combining to hit the team's last 13 home runs.
Have this game capped at 4-3, so I love the value with the under.
Kansas City (Hochevar) -119 over Cincy (Maloney) for $200
+$168
Hochevar has been better in his last two outings, and he's beginning to learn how to pitch a little bit. Now he gets to match wits with one of the worst offenses in the big leagues. With Votto out and Bruce not hitting, this lineup sucks out loud. I think Hochevar will likely rip through them like the #1 pick that he was, and he'll have people talking again until the next time he's blasted by an AL lineup.
Though his overall numbers are skewed from his early starts, things have been looking up lately. Hochevar has induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, and although his strikeouts are down, he's been effective when he throws his fastball down in the zone. He's using that fastball 8% more this season than last, and for good reason.
I like him a lot against Maloney, who will be facing what figures to be a decent lineup Friday night. At this price, it's a must play.
Colorado (Jiminez)/ Seattle (Washburn) under 9 for $150 (-115)
Quietly, Ubaldo Jiminez has established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. With a fastball that can touch 98 mph and one of the league's best sliders, Jiminez has torn through bad lineups all year long. He went through one rough stretch early in the year, and if you take away his numbers against the Dodgers, things look even better.
His strikeouts are up, he's keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he's had better control lately. What's more, he's better at home than he is on the road. All of this bodes for one of his better starts against a hapless Seattle team.
Jarrod Washburn has been pretty good in his own right, posting solid K/BB rates, while limiting home runs at Safeco Field. As a lefty, he figures to cause some trouble for the likes of Hawpe, Helton, and Ian Stewart, who make up the bulk of Colorado's power.
Look for this one to end up around 7, especially if Jiminez can go the distance or close to it.
Good luck!:00hour
Boston (Lester) -125 over Philly (Blanton) for $250
+$200
Lots of reasons to like Lester at a good price here. The interleague factor comes into play, coupled with the fact that the Phils haven't been great at home.
I really think the Red Sox have the better of the pitching matchup...and it's not really close. Lester's k'd better than a man an inning, he's not walking guys, and his inflated ERA is the result of some bad luck with his HR/FB rate. He's taken it to two good offenses in his last 2 outings, and I expect that to continue against a heavily left-handed Philly side.
Atlanta (Hanson)/Baltimore (Berken) under 10 (-105) for $150.
+$143
Love the under here, with Berken being significantly better at home than he is on the road. He's probably not long for the rotation at this point, but I'd expect him to handle the Braves lineup effectively.
On the other side, Hanson flashed brilliant stuff in his debut, but made a couple of key mistakes. The Orioles lineup has been scuffling a little bit here lately, with Nolan Remoid and Luke Scott combining to hit the team's last 13 home runs.
Have this game capped at 4-3, so I love the value with the under.
Kansas City (Hochevar) -119 over Cincy (Maloney) for $200
+$168
Hochevar has been better in his last two outings, and he's beginning to learn how to pitch a little bit. Now he gets to match wits with one of the worst offenses in the big leagues. With Votto out and Bruce not hitting, this lineup sucks out loud. I think Hochevar will likely rip through them like the #1 pick that he was, and he'll have people talking again until the next time he's blasted by an AL lineup.
Though his overall numbers are skewed from his early starts, things have been looking up lately. Hochevar has induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, and although his strikeouts are down, he's been effective when he throws his fastball down in the zone. He's using that fastball 8% more this season than last, and for good reason.
I like him a lot against Maloney, who will be facing what figures to be a decent lineup Friday night. At this price, it's a must play.
Colorado (Jiminez)/ Seattle (Washburn) under 9 for $150 (-115)
Quietly, Ubaldo Jiminez has established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. With a fastball that can touch 98 mph and one of the league's best sliders, Jiminez has torn through bad lineups all year long. He went through one rough stretch early in the year, and if you take away his numbers against the Dodgers, things look even better.
His strikeouts are up, he's keeping the ball in the ballpark, and he's had better control lately. What's more, he's better at home than he is on the road. All of this bodes for one of his better starts against a hapless Seattle team.
Jarrod Washburn has been pretty good in his own right, posting solid K/BB rates, while limiting home runs at Safeco Field. As a lefty, he figures to cause some trouble for the likes of Hawpe, Helton, and Ian Stewart, who make up the bulk of Colorado's power.
Look for this one to end up around 7, especially if Jiminez can go the distance or close to it.
Good luck!:00hour
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