Trend sheet 6/20

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Trend Report

1:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CHI CUBS
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games at home

4:10 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. DETROIT
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

4:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. KANSAS CITY
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis

4:10 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY METS
Tampa Bay is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Mets are 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
NY Mets are 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home

7:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:05 PM
TORONTO vs. WASHINGTON
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
Washington is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. BOSTON
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Atlanta
Boston is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Atlanta

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CINCINNATI
Chi White Sox are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Chi White Sox are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston

7:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. FLORIDA
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. COLORADO
Pittsburgh is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

9:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. LA ANGELS
LA Dodgers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
LA Angels are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
LA Angels are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

9:05 PM
TEXAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

10:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

10:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

 

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Hot lines: Today?s best MLB bets

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies (-158, 9.5)

Are the world champions ever going to get things figured out at home?

The Philadelphia Phillies (36-28) are in first place in the National League East, mainly because of their major league-best 23-8 road record. At home, they are just 13-19. Only Arizona and Washington are worse.

In 11 home series this year, the Phillies are 2-8-1, with both series wins coming against the lowly Nationals.

On its current homestand, Philadelphia has dropped two of three at home to Boston before being swept by Toronto, which has nearly half its pitching staff on the disabled list. Its lone win came Sunday against Josh Beckett, the first time the Phils have been home underdogs this year.

Philadelphia's awful return rate as a home favorite is costing bettors. The Phillies have the fourth-best winning percentage but are just eighth in money at $272 for the season. With a similar overall record, Milwaukee (37-29) has returned $743.

In town are the Orioles (29-37), who are 8-20 on the road and have been road favorites just twice this year. Overall, Baltimore has won four of five - all against the NL - and might be worth a look.

Pick: Baltimore


Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers (-103, 10)

Welcome to The Show, Alfredo Figaro.

With Dontrelle Willis on the disabled list, Figaro makes his major league debut for the Detroit Tigers against the suddenly bopping Milwaukee Brewers.

A 24-year-old Dominican righthander, Figaro has a fastball in the 90s and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning over the last year and a half. He is the cousin of Tigers pitcher Fernando Rodney.

Figaro was 12-2 with a 2.05 ERA with Single-A West Michigan before moving on to Single-A Clearwater in 2008. This year, Figaro was 5-2 with a 4.10 ERA at Double-A Erie, twice winning Eastern League Pitcher of the Week, including last week.

On Saturday, the Tigers just need Figaro to be pitcher of the day. He will be facing the free-swinging Brewers, who compiled 30 runs and 40 hits - including five homers - in a three-game sweep at Cleveland.

Milwaukee has topped the total in five of its last seven games.

Pick: Milwaukee

 

[cisco]

Weekend Cheat Sheet
Marc Lawrence

Another round of Interleague play resumes this weekend and the MLB CHEAT SHEET is right here to guide you through as intra-division play between both circuits continues on the MLB front.

This guide is designed to help you isolate a few key best bets as we focus on four different series on this weekend's Interleague card. Keep in mind that all pitcher records are 'team starts' unless noted otherwise.

FYI: Three interesting Interleague team trends of note as we enter the weekend - Boston is 30-10 in its last 40 as a host... Minnesota is 21-6 in its last 27 contests... San Diego is 4-20 in its last 24 games.

Enjoy the Father's Day weekend...

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox

Most Recent Series Result: Red Sox 8-2 last ten games vs. Braves

Most Recent Series Result: at the Site: Red Sox 4-2 last six games home vs. Braves

Key Day/Month Stat: Red Sox 15-5 home on Sundays; Braves 6-14 away on Sundays

Best Arm in the Series: Red Sox' Matsusaka 1-0 3.37 ERA career team starts vs. Braves

Worst Arm in the Series: Braves' Vazquez 2-7 4.74 ERA career team starts vs. Red Sox

Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Most Recent Series Result: White Sox 9-0 last nine games vs. Reds

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: White Sox 6-0 last six games away vs. Reds

Key Day/Month Stat: White Sox 8-2 on Saturdays; Reds 5-15 on Saturdays

Best Arm in the Series: White Sox' Contreras 2-0 4.85 ERA career team starts vs. Reds

Worst Arm in the Series: Reds' Harang 0-1 4.08 ERA career team starts vs. White Sox

Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners

Most Recent Series Result: Mariners 9-3 last twelve games vs. Diamondbacks

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Mariners 4-2 home vs. Diamondbacks

Key Day/Month Stat: Mariners 7-1 home on Sundays; Diamondbacks 5-11 on Sundays

Best Arm in the Series: Diamondbacks' Garland 10-5 3.71 ERA career team starts vs. Mariners

Worst Arm in the Series: Diamondbacks' Davis 2-7 5/10 ERA career team starts vs. Mariners (1-4 5.00 ERA away)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels

Most Recent Series Result: Angels 12-5 last seventeen games vs. Dodgers (2-1 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Angels 7-1 last eight home vs. Dodgers

Key Day/Month Stat: Dodgers 14-2 on Saturdays; Angels 1-4 on Saturdays

Best Arm in the Series: Angels' Lackey 4-0 0.33 ERA home career team starts vs. Dodgers; Angels' Jerred Weaver 4-1 1.58 career team starts vs. Dodgers (2-0 home)

Worst Arm in the Series: Dodgers' Jeff Weaver 0-5 7.63 ERA last five team starts vs. Angels (0-3 last three away)

 

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MLB Weekend Top 10
By Bodog

Top 10 paying teams

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (43-23, 16.81 units)
2. Texas Rangers (37-27 SU, 12.13 units)
3. Boston Red Sox (40-25 SU, 9.44 units)
4. Los Angeles Angels (35-29 SU, 8.20 units)
5. Milwaukee Brewers (37-29 SU, 7.43 units)
6. Cincinnati Reds (33-31 SU, 5.32 units)
7. Philadelphia Phillies (36-27, 4.32 units)
8. Pittsburgh Pirates (31-34, 3.56 units)
9. Toronto Blue Jays (36-31 SU, 2.52 units)
10. San Francisco Giants (34-31 SU, 2.12 units)

Top 10 paying pitchers

1. Matt Palmer, L.A. Angels (8-1 team record, 10.4 units)
2. Josh Johnson, Florida (11-3, 7.89 units)
3. Tim Wakefield, Boston (10-3, 6.98 units)
4. Chad Billingsley, L.A. Dodgers (11-3, 6.56 units)
5. Jason Marquis, Colorado (9-4, 6.35 units)
6. Matt Cain, San Francisco (10-3, 6.19 units)
7. Vicente Padilla, Texas (8-3, 6.03 units)
8. Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee (9-5, 5.95 units)
9. Eric Stults, L.A. Dodgers (7-2, 5.85 units)
10. Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay (9-4, 5.60 units)

This weekend's top 10 storylines

1. Blue Jays putting starters Roy Halladay and Casey Janssen, closer Scott Downs on DL
2. Mariners send Erik Bedard to DL with shoulder inflammation.
3. Cubs manager Lou Piniella promises ?tough decisions? for slumping ballclub
4. Brewers OF Ryan Braun leaves game with back stiffness; expected return Friday
5. Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen blames blister for Johan Santana's struggles
6. A?s OF Ryan Sweeney (sprained left knee) expected to return Thursday
7. Carl Pavano?s Saturday start for Cleveland pushed to Wednesday; Tomo Ohka to fill in
8. Yankees SS Derek Jeter leaves game early with stiff left ankle
9. Twins put OF Denard Span on DL with inner ear infection
10. Cards to activate SS Khalil Greene, play him at third base

This weekend's top 10 games to bet on

1. Sunday: L.A. Dodgers at L.A. Angels (8:05 p.m. Eastern, ESPN)

It?s another edition of Sunday Night Baseball featuring two of the most profitable teams in the majors. The Angels took two of three at Chavez Ravine last month.

2. Saturday: N.Y. Yankees at Florida (7:10 p.m.)

A.J. Burnett (8-5 team record, +1.88 units) starts for the Yankees against Josh Johnson, the No. 2 pitcher on our money list.

3. Sunday: Atlanta at Boston (1:35 p.m., TBS)

Tim Wakefield and his dancing knuckleball take the mound for Boston. Wakefield is stuck on nine wins alongside Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain and Kevin Slowey. Jair Jurrjens (7-7, -1.95 units) goes for Atlanta.

4. Saturday: Tampa Bay at N.Y. Mets (4:10 p.m., FOX)

The Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 games at newly minted Citi Field. Tampa Bay is 2-8 in its last 10 on the road.

5. Friday: Cleveland at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m.)

Chicago has scored one run (or fewer) in four of its last six contests, prompting manager Lou Piniella?s threat to make some lineup changes. The under is 14-4 in the last 18 Cubs games.

6. Saturday: St. Louis at Kansas City (4:10 p.m., FOX)

Chris Carpenter (4-4, -0.37 units) has pitched five straight quality starts, during which the Cardinals scored a grand total of nine runs. The under is 5-2-1 for Carpenter thus far.

7. Friday: Texas at San Francisco (10:15 p.m.)

Randy Johnson (7-6, +1.54 units) turns 46 in September, and he?s still mowing ?em down with 64 strikeouts in 70 innings of work.

8. Sunday: Milwaukee at Detroit (1:05 p.m.)

The under is 21-8 in Detroit?s last 29 games, but only 7-7 on the season for Justin Verlander (9-5, +3.49 units). His streak of nine quality starts was snapped last week in St. Louis.

9. Friday: Pittsburgh at Colorado (9:10 p.m.)

Yes, that?s the Pirates on our Top 10 money board. They?re No. 19 in the majors in hitting with a .726 OPS and No. 13 in pitching with a 4.22 ERA ? not entirely awful, which is a big improvement.

10. Saturday: Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m., MLBN)

The fledgling MLB Network wraps up our preview with the hottest pitcher in the National League, Cincinnati?s Johnny Cueto (8-5, +3.71 units). The under is 9-4 in his starts.

 

[cisco]

MLB Weekend Preview: Rays vs. Mets

MLB Betting: Weekend Series Preview

A couple of baseball's postseason hopefuls hook up for an interesting interleague series when the defending American League champion Tampa Bay Rays hit the Big Apple for three games with the New York Mets beginning Friday night at Citi Field.

Andy Sonnanstine (5-6, 6.65, 1.55 WHIP) gets the start for Tampa in Friday's series opener (7:10 pm Eastern), against Fernando Nieve (1-0, 2.08, 0.81 WHIP) for New York. As of early Friday morning, BetJamaica.com is listing the Rays and Sonnanstine as -106 favorites for Friday, with the Mets and Nieve ?getting? -104 as home underdogs. The game has been tagged with an over/under of 9.5.

James Shields (5-5, 3.52, 1.32) will take the hill for Tampa Saturday vs. Johan Santana (8-4, 3.29, 1.22) for the Mets (4:10 pm E, Fox). And Jeff Niemann (6-4, 4.21, 1.45) will go on Sunday for the Rays against Mike Pelfrey (5-2, 4.56, 1.46) for NY (1:10 pm E).

Tampa just dropped two of three games to the Rockies in Denver this week, but has won six of its last eight. Going into Friday's play, the Rays sit in fourth place in the AL East, six games back of the division-leading Boston Red Sox.

The Mets just lost two of three games to the Orioles in Baltimore, capped by a 5-4 loss Thursday in which closer Francisco Rodriguez coughed up a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the ninth. In losing their last three series, New York has gone 3-6, and dropped to three games behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.

TB is two games over .500 on the season, but just 14-21 on the road. The Mets, meanwhile, are also two games above .500, and are 18-11 at home this year.

Tampa is a collective 21-19 when Sonnanstine, Shields and Niemann start this season, with the totals going 17-21. On the other side of this matchup, the Mets are 16-9 when Pelfrey and Santana start this season (Nieve has started just once), with the totals going 11-12.

These two teams have not met on the diamond since 2001.

Games played at Citi Field have averaged 8.6 total runs this season, which ranks 19th among all ML ballparks, as the totals have gone 13-14-2 in Mets home games. And only 48 home runs have been hit at Citi Field, the fourth-fewest total this year among all ballparks.

On the injury front, New York is still without 1B Carlos Delgado, SS Jose Reyes and RP JJ Putz, who are all sidelined with various ailments.

The totals are 33-32 in Rays games this season, as the majors' highest-scoring offense has helped Tampa games average 10.3 runs. The O/Us are 29-30 in Mets games this year, which are averaging 9.3 total runs.

The Rays rank 5th in the majors in team BA at .275, 4th in team OBP at .356, and 4th in home runs with 92.

New York ranks 3rd in the majors this season in team BA at .279, 28th in home runs with just 41, but 1st in team OBP at .359.

Just before this season started, the Mets were at +115 to win the NL East this year, +275 to win the NL pennant and +600 to win the World Series, with a regular-season wins over/under of 89.5. As of Friday morning the Mets were at +1,200 to win the Series, and were on a pace to win 84 games.

Tampa began this season getting +275 to win the AL East, +500 to win the pennant and +1,200 to win the World Series, with a season wins O/U of 89.5. As of Friday morning, the Rays were getting +2,000 to win the Series, and were on a pace to win 83 games.

 

[cisco]

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox (-163, 8.5)

The Atlanta Braves try and salvage an America- League road schedule that has been less than kind this month. After a three-game sweep of Toronto at Turner Field, the Braves traveled to Baltimore to meet the Orioles, who weren't impressed by Atlanta's success against their fellow AL East counterparts.

In a three game series at Camden Yards, the Braves went 1-2 and were outscored 19-6 in both losses combined. With the pair of loses, Atlanta is now 1-4 in its last five interleague road games. It is also 1-4 in its last five overall.

For the Red Sox, National League opponents started to bring trouble as the Mets took two of three from Boston at Fenway as interleague play began this season. Since, Boston's won back-to-back interleague series, first taking two of three in Philly and then taking two of three from Florida in Boston (Game 3 of the Florida series was called in the sixth inning due to rain. It was Florida's only win, 2-1). Coming off of a loss, the Red Sox are undefeated in their last four contests, they are also 7-1 in their last eight after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.

On the Lowe down

The return of longtime Atlanta Braves pitcher and first-year member of the Red Sox, John Smoltz, absolutely looms over Boston. Though Smoltz is slated to return next week against the Nationals, he was considered for a weekend start against his former club.

Instead, the intrigue falls onto Derek Lowe, who will be playing in Boston for the first time since 2004 when he helped the Red Sox win their first World Series in 86 years. Lowe finished 3-0 in the 2004 post season, recording an ERA of only 1.86. He remains the only pitcher in major league history to record wins in the final game of each series (beating the Angles in the ALDS, the Yankees in the ALCS and St. Louis in the World Series).

Lowe comes into Fenway with a 7-4 record in 2009, registering just one win in his last four outings. He was roughed up by Baltimore his last time out, being tagged for eight hits and seven earned runs over 2 1-3 innings. The right-handed Lowe could be troublesome on the mound as Boston's 4-1 in its last five games when facing a right-handed starter. The Braves are also 2-8 in their last 10 against Boston.

Book it Beckett

You can dwell on Josh Beckett's last start in Philadelphia all you want, but save yourself the aggravation and simply throw it out. Before the Boston right-hander was slammed for six earned runs on 11 hits, Beckett strung together an impressive streak of seven consecutive quality starts.

Though Beckett enters Saturday's start with a lifetime record of 6-7 against the Braves, he's 3-0 currently on the season when he starts at Fenway. Hitters are only swinging for a .245 BA when he takes the mound in Boston as well. Considering that Atlanta is 1-4 in its last five when facing a right-handed starter, Beckett and the BoSox seem to be the easy choice here.

The under is 10-1-2 in Boston's last 13 home games. The under is also 7-1-2 in Boston's last 10 interleague home games. The under favors Atlanta as well, going 6-1-1 in the last eight interleague road games against a team with a winning record (Boston's well over 10 games above .500).

Three strikes

Head to head, the under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Boston.
Under is 4-1-1 in Red Sox last six interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Braves are 4-1 in their last five interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.