Thursday's Afternoon Action

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Thursday's Afternoon Action


Half a dozen games around the diamond are scheduled throughout the afternoon hours on Thursday. You know the drill as we prepare to open our wallets up at the window. Narrowing our focus in this preview, let?s root out the underdogs. Are their some bonafide winners that books may be overlooking? What about road teams? chances of exiting hostile territory and returning a profit?

St. Louis at N.Y. Mets ? 1:10 p.m. EDT

We?ve got a great pitchers duel scheduled to take place in Citi Field. Using just the past few games as a measurement, St. Louis? (40-32, +293) Chris Carpenter (5-1, 1.53 ERA) can be considered the ?wild card?. The right-handed veteran is still yet to allow more then three runs in a given outing. Even more impressive has been the ability to lock down the opposition by not allowing more then six hits in any one of his nine starts on the year. In other words, Carpenter is as close to perfection as any slinger has been this season.

But besides winning games, gamblers have enjoyed the ?under? at 6-2-1 in Carpenter?s last nine trips to the hill. And while a 62-50-4 record on the ?under? dating back to the 2004 season isn?t overwhelming evidence for another ?under? play to cash in, the rate at which Carpenter has been throwing up impressive numbers isn?t something to put on the backburner. It?s just difficult to forget about the past two seasons of debilitating injuries that have struck fear in the Cardinals organization after signing the curveball specialist to a five-year, $65 million contract through 2011 (that deal was drawn up and executed during the end of 2006.

At the plate the Mets? (35-34, -208) have been relatively consistent despite a 4-6 disappointment in the last 10. The disparity comes in the form of hitting .269 from both sides of the plate (.310 versus lefties this year) but only scoring 82 runs in June. Although not convincing enough in terms of offensive output, the ?under? is 4-2 in the last six.

As far as Johan Santana (8-5, 3.22) representing his club from the hill, a 1-3 performance in the last four starts doesn?t explain everything. The lefty is coming off a 3-1 loss against Tampa Bay, but giving up three hits and two runs thanks in large part to a Carlos Pena long ball was the icing on that cake. Remember this was the same Santana that pitched his way through six straight ?under? plays in the first six games of the season. Why? How?s holding the opposition to one run per game as an answer sound? Santana has thrown four shutouts in ?09 with the last one coming in a May 11 win over Atlanta (8-3).

The ?over? is 8-2-1 in the last 11 head-to-head meetings.

Chicago Cubs at Detroit ? 1:05 p.m. EDT

Despite two straight defeats, the Cubs (34-33, -697) have been scoring five runs per game in the last six. This is important for the fact that Chicago is an unconscious, 26-4 when it has totaled five runs or more. Just pay attention to Wednesday night?s results as the Cubs are just 7-1 off a win in Game 2 heading into Game 3.

Southpaw starter Ted Lilly (7-4, 3.04) will matchup well against the Tigers (39-31, -419) given the fact that his team is 10-4 when he takes the mound. And despite Detroit?s 10th ranked, 342 runs produced, 86 runs scored versus southpaws ranks the club at a low, 17th in the Majors. As for Lilly, a 2-0 record in his last five starts has come on the heels of giving up 1.6 runs per game. The disparity, while not insurmountable, has been the opposition hitting .213 in Wrigley but .241 when Lilly is on the road.

Speaking of pitchers, next up on the slab for the Tigers will be struggling pitcher, Armando Galarraga (3-7, 5.62). How do you interpret giving up at least one home run per game in the last 10 straight appearances? That can?t be good for any slinger. His last two starts have seen Galarraga log in a total of six innings, allowing a lump sum of 16 hits and eight runs. Another disturbing stat on the sheet is 2.4 walks per game (33 total walks allowed). Most surprising in relation to the sloppy pitching is the ?under? taking control at 8-6 in Galarraga?s last 14 starts despite opponents ripping into the right-hander. All-in-all, Detroit?s offense has helped out Galarraga with 5.4 runs of support per start, but to no avail.

Despite the uphill climb concerning the pitching mismatch, Detroit is still a strong, 50-21 in its last 71 interleague games. The ?under? is 21-10 in Chicago?s last 31.

L.A. Dodgers at Chicago White Sox ? 2:05 p.m. EDT

The Dodgers (47-24, +2100) continue to add separation in the NL West regardless of the Giants? 18-9 record in the last 27. What L.A. has working in its favor is the strong pitching game. More specifically is Chad Billingsley (9-3, 2.83), his 1.27 WHIP and 5-2 matching records on the road and during the day.

This will be Billingsley?s first start against the White Sox. But in recent games, the right-handed phenom is 3-0 in four starts. He?s allowed 6.2 hits, two runs and 5.4 Ks per game during this stretch. Billingsley is 1-4 on the run line in the last five games.

Chicago enters Thursday with a 7-2 record over the Dodgers in their last nine meetings. However, a 3-9 slump in its last 12 home stands has been the complete opposite to a 10-4 run in its last 14 road games. Where to start? Some numbers complicating positive play include Chicago allowing 4.7 runs per game while scoring a putrid, 2.4 runs per game all in the same 14 home contests (run difference of minus-2.3 runs per game).

And coming full circle, the White Sox will have Clayton Richard (2-1, 4.03) going in Game 3 of this three-game set. First off, Chicago is 6-13 in Game 3?s this season. Second, Richard will be going up against a Dodgers club that shelling southpaws for a .289 BA with an 8th ranked, 103 runs. So what angle can we play here if the Sox seem like a total long shot? How about wagering on the total? The ?under? is 7-3-1 in Richard?s last 11 appearances (8 starts and 3 games in relief).

During the day, Richard is 0-0 but a 2.35 ERA in 15.1 innings, a stark contrast to a 4.28 ERA during evening duties (despite pitching 42.2 innings during the night time).

The ?under? is 8-3 in L.A.?s last 11 road games. In-fact the Dodgers have been able to cover the run line six straight times in its last six road games.
 

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Thursday's Late Tip Sheet

Thursday's Late Tip Sheet

Thursday's Late Tip Sheet

The end of June and beginning of July is the slowest period on the sports schedule. While the fall months will bring us college and pro football along with baseball, the national pastime is pretty much the only option right now unless you?re into the WNBA, golf or NASCAR. The good news is that there is plenty of action on Thursday?s card, so this Tip Sheet will focus on four late games.

**Phillies (Bastardo) at Rays (Sonnanstine)**




-Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed Tampa Bay as a $1.30 home ?chalk? over Philadelphia, with the total set at 10 ?over? (minus $1.20). This game is slated to start at 7:05 p.m. ET.

-Philadelphia left-hander Antonio Bastardo (2-2, 5.21 ERA) heads to the hill mired in a personal two-game losing skid after Friday?s setback to Baltimore as a $1.45 home favorite, 7-2. The Dominican Republic native went seven innings, yielding four runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts.

-The combined nine runs failed to topple the 10-run closing total, ending a string of three straight ?over? outings for the 23-year-old.

-Bastardo, a rookie pitcher, has never started against Tampa Bay in his brief major league career.

-Tampa Bay pitcher Andy Sonnanstine (5-7, 6.48 ERA) has alternated wins and losses his last six starts after Friday?s setback to the New York Mets as a $1.10 road ?chalk,? 5-3. The Kent State product went six innings, surrendering four runs on seven hits (one home run) with two walks and five strikeouts.

-The combined eight runs failed to eclipse the 9 ?-run closing total, enabling the ?under? to improve to 3-1 his last four starts.

-Sonnanstine, a three-year veteran, has never started against the Phillies during his career.

**Yankees (Pettitte) at Braves (Lowe)**

-LVSC lists Atlanta as a $1.15 home favorite over New York, with the total set at 8 ?. This matchup is scheduled to begin at 7:10 p.m. ET.

-New York?s Andy Pettitte (7-3, 4.26 ERA) has alternated wins and losses his last five starts after Friday?s victory over Florida as a $1.20 road ?chalk,? 5-1. The veteran left-hander was reached for the lone run on three hits (one home run) with no walks and seven strikeouts over seven innings.

-The combined six runs failed to topple the 9 ?-run closing total, enabling the ?under? to cash his sixth straight start.

-Pettitte has not started against the Braves the past few years.

-Atlanta right-hander Derek Lowe (7-5, 4.09 ERA) has dropped his past two starts after Saturday?s setback to Boston as a $1.58 road underdog, 3-0. The 36-year-old went 6 1/3 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits with a walk and two strikeouts.

-The three runs never seriously threatened the 8 ?-run closing total, helping the ?under? improve to 6-1 his previous seven starts.

-Lowe has not started against the Yankees the previous few seasons.

**Orioles (Hill) at Marlins (West)**

-LVSC opened Florida as a $1.15 home ?chalk? over Baltimore, with the total listed at 9 ?. This contest is scheduled to start at 7:10 p.m. ET.

-Baltimore?s Rich Hill (3-1, 5.18 ERA) is coming off of Friday?s victory over Philadelphia as a $1.35 road underdog, 7-2. The southpaw was reached for two runs on five hits with four walks and five strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings.

-The combined nine runs went ?under? the 10-run closing total, helping the ?under? go 5-2 his last seven starts.

-Hill, a five-year veteran, has not started against the Marlins the previous few years.

-Florida pitcher Sean West (2-2, 3.97 ERA) hopes to get back on the winning track after Friday?s setback to the New York Yankees as a $1.10 home underdog, 5-1. The towering 6-foot-8 left-hander lasted just four innings, yielding five runs on 10 hits (one home run) with two walks and seven strikeouts.

-The combined six runs failed to topple the 9 ?-run closing total, enabling the ?under? to go 2-1 his last three starts.

-West, a rookie hurler, has never started against the Orioles during his brief career.

**Rangers (Feldman) at Diamondbacks (Garland)**

-LVSC lists Arizona as a $1.20 home favorite over Texas, with the total set at 9 ? ?under? (minus $1.20). This matchup is slated to start at 9:40 p.m. ET.

-Texas pitcher Scott Feldman (5-2, 3.18 ERA) dropped to 0-2 his last three starts after Friday?s setback to San Francisco as a $1.03 road underdog, 6-4. The five-year veteran was tagged for five runs on eight hits (two home runs) with a walk and five strikeouts over six innings.

-The combined 10 runs went ?over? the eight-run closing total, ending a string of nine straight ?under? outings for the right-hander.

-Feldman has not started against the D?backs the previous few seasons.

-Arizona righty Jon Garland (4-7, 4.99 ERA) is searching for his first victory in over a month after going 0-4 his last five starts. The 29-year-old is coming off of Friday?s tough-luck no-decision against Seattle, tossing seven scoreless innings on seven hits with a walk and three strikeouts.

-The D?backs eventually dropped that contest as a $1.15 road underdog, 4-3, while the combined seven runs slithered ?under? the 7 ?-run closing total. The ?over? had cashed in Garland?s previous two outings.

-The 6-foot-6 hurler pitched for the Los Angeles Angels last season, and went 1-1 against the Rangers in three starts. The 10-year veteran went a combined 15 1/3 innings, allowing 21 runs (20 earned) on 26 hits (five home runs) with three walks and nine strikeouts. The Angels won as a $1.75 home favorite, 7-5, and as a $1.00 road selection, 15-13, while losing as a $1.70 home ?chalk,? 10-4. The ?over? cashed in all three contests.
 

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Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Bullpen Banter

Thriving ? San Francisco Giants

If the season ended today, which N.L. team would be on their way to the post-season as the wildcard? Surprisingly, and quite obvious at this point, it would be the San Francisco Giants. Their offense has very little to do with their current success as this team is last in the Majors in home runs and 28th in runs scored. Thus their pitching staff, including a top notch bullpen, is the main reason they are in a fight for a post-season berth which far exceeds what most expected from this team.

Most would not have envisioned the Giants having the second best team ERA in all of baseball as we near the All-Star break, however that is a fact. San Fran?s team ERA is just 3.65 and they have allowed the fewest runs per game (3.8) in the Majors this season. On top of that, this staff has more strikeouts than any other team?Impressive numbers to say the least. The starting staff obviously has a stake in those imposing stats as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are both in the top 10 in starter?s ERA. However, the bullpen has definitely held up their end of the bargain.



As I mentioned, the Giants team ERA is second in baseball, however the bullpen numbers are actually even more impressive. That?s because they have the best bullpen ERA in the league at 3.34. Opponents are hitting just .243 against Giant relievers. And while the starters have been solid for the most part, they have only 36 quality starts putting them in the middle of the pack in MLB. That tells us the bullpen has had to shoulder more than their share of the load this year.

The interesting part about this San Francisco bullpen is that their success has been built mainly with first year players. Now by that we don?t mean rookies, we mean first year Giants. These well traveled veterans have really come into their own this year and pushed this team into second place in the N.L. West behind the red hot Dodgers. The most ?well known? pick up was Bobby Howry who has posted decent numbers (3.91 ERA) but other under the radar signings have been more efficient. Jeremy Affeldt who has pitched with Kansas City, Colorado and Atlanta, has been one of the best pick ups in baseball. He has a miniscule 1.65 ERA in 32 appearances. Justin Miller, who was with Florida the last two years, has been great with an ERA of just 2.27 in 25 appearances. Brandon Medders is another newcomer who took the mound for Arizona the last four seasons. His ERA is 2.97.

Those four have helped this rebuilt San Francisco bullpen become one of the best in MLB. In fact, the only holdover besides closer Brian Wilson, that has had significant mound action this year is Merkin Valdez. If the ?newcomers? continue their breakout seasons and the starting staff stays solid, this team should remain in the N.L. wildcard hunt. If their offense ever comes around, then they will really be a serious threat.

Struggling ? Kansas City Royals

The Royals were somewhat of a surprise team early in the season as they jumped out to a solid 18-11 mark. That was on May 8th. Since then this team is just 12-28 and has dropped to nine games below .500. Those 12 wins are the second fewest in baseball since May 8th topped, or bottomed in this instance, only by Washington with 11. Much of that drop off has been the result of an ineffective bullpen.

KC sits near the middle of the pack for most key pitching stats, however if it weren?t for Zach Greinke having an all world year, they would be much further down the totem pole. The bullpen ranks 25th in ERA at 4.73 and have allowed 229 base runners in just 157.1 innings. The relievers have combined to blow 10 saves and have a record of only 6-11. The starters haven?t been much better as Hochevar, Davies and Bannister have had some less than stellar outings making for some long relief outings taking its toll on the pen.

The only real standout this year in the Royal bullpen has been closer Joakim Soria. Problem is, Soria was injured in early May and sat on the sidelines for nearly a month. He made is first appearance off the D.L. on June 3rd. He has pitched a total of seven innings since being reactivated. His overall numbers are great with a 1.72 ERA and eight saves in nine opportunities. If you take away his save numbers, the KC relievers have only two saves in 11 chances. Soria?s role as a closer is being vastly underutilized with the Royals this year because this team simply hasn?t given him many chances to save a game. In fact, since returning from the D.L. on June 3rd, he has had only two save opportunities and that?s it. This team has scored the 4th fewest runs in the Majors this year and in June they have put up less than four runs per game unfortunately leaving Soria on the bench most o f the time.

As we mentioned, the remaining relievers have been under performing. The Royals top five out of bullpen according to appearances all have ERA?s of 4.24 or higher. That?s not good to say the least. Everyone in the pen that has more than 10 innings pitched (minus Soria) has a WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) of more than 1.46 except one and that?s Kyle Farnsworth. Another extremely unimpressive stat. With only one really reliable starter, a bullpen in flux and very little offense, the prospects for this team do not look bright.

OTHER BULLPEN TIDBITS

Philadelphia Phillies ? The Phillies are just 2-8 their last 10 games and closing out games has been a huge problem. Closer Brad Lidge has been sporadic all season and is now on the disabled list. The Phils have used Ryan Madsen as his replacement with limited results. Last week alone Madsen blew two saves and allowed five earned runs in just over two innings pitched. Madsen was very good as a set up man but may not have what it takes to be a solid closer.

Texas Rangers ? The Ranger bullpen as a whole has not been very good. However, their closing situation has become one of the better spots in baseball. Closer Frank Francisco was recently activated off the D.L. after being sidelined since June 4th. He is 12 for 12 in save opportunities and has the lowest ERA in baseball (0.44) among pitchers with more than 15 innings of work. His replacement during his downtime was CJ Wilson who was 6 for 7 in saves and has an ERA of 2.89. Between the two they have pocketed 18 saves in 19 chances.
 

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Weather Report

Weather Report

Weather Report

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MLB WEATHER
Matchup Conditions Game Time Temp Heat Index
STL CARDINALS
NY METS
Thu 1:10 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY. IN FROM RIGHT 7-12 76 66 %
Humid -
CHI CUBS
DET TIGERS
Thu 1:05 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS LATE. OUT TO LEFT 8-13 88 53 %
Humid 93
LA DODGERS
CHI WHITE SOX
Thu 2:05 p.m. ET PARTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS. OUT TO LEFT CENTER 7-12 88 53 %
Humid 93
KC ROYALS
HOU ASTROS
Thu 2:05 p.m. ET PARTLY SUNNY. OUT TO CENTER 8-13 94 45 %
Humid 102
MIN TWINS
MIL BREWERS
Thu 2:05 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS EARLY. OUT TO LEFT 6-11 80 62 %
Humid -
SD PADRES
SEA MARINERS
Thu 4:40 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWERS. OUT TO CENTER 7-12 65 67 %
Humid -
CIN REDS
TOR BLUE JAYS
Thu 7:05 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS EARLY. IN FROM LEFT 8-13 79 73 %
Humid -
CLE INDIANS
PIT PIRATES
Thu 7:05 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS. OUT TO LEFT 9-14 86 52 %
Humid -
BOS RED SOX
WAS NATIONALS
Thu 7:05 p.m. ET PARTLY CLOUDY. OUT TO RIGHT CENTER 5-10 88 46 %
Humid 91
NY YANKEES
ATL BRAVES
Thu 7:10 p.m. ET MOSTLY FAIR. OUT TO RIGHT 3-8 88 46 %
Humid 91
BAL ORIOLES
FLA MARLINS
Thu 7:10 p.m. ET MOSTLY CLOUDY, 40% CHANCE SHOWER, STORMS. OUT TO LEFT 7-12 85 69 %
Humid 93
TEX RANGERS
ARZ DBACKS
Thu 9:40 p.m. ET PARTLY CLOUDY. LEFT TO RIGHT 6-11 98 17 %
Humid 95
 

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Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Ted Lilly (Chicago Cubs)

Ted Lilly is heating up under the June sun. In four starts this month, the Cubbies left-hander is posting a 1.98 ERA and has struck out 23 batters while walking just six.

Despite these stellar performances, Lilly has just one win to show for his efforts. He?s settled for three no-decisions in June including his most recent start against the Cleveland Indians. He went six innings, allowing three runs on six hits against the Tribe, recording his 11th quality start of the season.

Chris Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)

The inspiring return of Chris Carpenter continues to play out in Disney-like proportions. In his most recent trip to the bump, Carpenter pitched just under eight innings, giving up only one run on three hits.

That gem improved the right-hander?s record to 5-1 on the year and was Carpenter?s fifth quality start in a row. He has a 2-1 record and an ERA of 2.43 this month, helping St. Louis capture first place in the National League Central.

Slumping

Armando Galarraga (Detroit Tigers)

The Tigers? youngster appeared to be turning over a new leaf in June, posting an ERA under 4.00 in his first two appearances of the month. However, in his past two starts Galarraga has pitched only six innings while allowing seven earned runs on 16 hits.

His most recent outing was a rain-shortened showing versus the Milwaukee Brewers. While he was able to throw just four innings, Galarraga did manage to give up a home run ? making it the 10th straight game an opponent has gone yard off the right-hander. He has allowed 14 dingers during that stretch.

Sean West (Florida Marlins)

The Marlins? rookie hurler blew through seven batters when he faced the New York Yankees in his most recent start. Unfortunately, he also gave up five runs on five hits and lasted just four innings.

West has dropped his past two trips to the mound since pitching an eight-inning shutout against the San Francisco Giants. The 6-foot-8 southpaw has good stuff but sometimes gets caught going after batters, leading to the three home runs he?s allowed in the past two games. He?s served five round trippers during his six starts in 2009.
 

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers (+112, 9)

The Chicago Cubs don?t score runs on the road.

The Cubbies are a wretched 13-20 away from Wrigley Field this season, with the majority of their problems attributed to leaving their bats back in the Windy City.

Chicago is hitting a meager .235 BA in opponents? ballparks and has topped four runs just three times in their past 15 road games. The Cubs also have gone under the total in 14 of their past 20 games and have an O/U road record of 13-18-2.

The Tigers do have the ninth-best home offense in baseball, scoring 181 runs at Comerica Park and hitting .274 as a team, but overall are 14-16-2 against the number at home.

Neither pitchers ? Chicago?s Ted Lilly or Detroit?s Armando Galarraga - will be unhittable, but look for both to keep runs off the board.

Pick: Under 9

Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates (+143, 8.5)

The Indians have rocked opposing pitchers on the road this season. And the Pirates have been on a roll at home.

Cleveland has the fourth-best road offense in baseball, scoring a major-league best 211 roads away from home. The Tribe are batting .277 BA and have mashed 45 home runs. They are one of the few consistent over plays this season, topping the number in 24 of 37 road games.

The Pirates, however, are killing it at home and post a 17-13 record and hit .291 BA as a team at PNC Park - the second-best home average in the majors.

Pittsburgh has been struggling to score runs, but the majority of its struggles have come on the road as it figures to take a scalp off the Indians.

Pick: Pirates +143
 
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