psu
- Thread starter bej0101
- Start date
pretty interesting play....it may take their offense some time to mesh but it should be pretty potent once they do....& their front 7 on defense is supposed to be very good but their 2ndary is inexperienced with only 9 total games started at the college level...but their toughest game vs. osu is in november.....looking at their schedule....their 2 toughest games are both at home....iowa on 9/26 & ohio st on 11/7...
good luck with the play...
It seems like all their games are at home, I think they don't leave home all of September and play 6/7 at home to start. Odd.
jr11
thanks..i think the bet has great value, i think they will play fl or tex in the champ game..
It seems to me that for PSU to get a chance to play in the championship game
1. PSU must win the Big 10 and be undefeated;
2. The SEC champ must have at least one loss;
3. The Big XII champ must have at least one loss;
4. PSU must be ranked ahead of the ACC and PAC 10 champs.
I'd guess that the winner of the PSU/OSU game will win the BIG 10 and that winner will go undefeated, so I'd put the probability of 1. at 50%.
I dont think any teams in the SEC other than Florida and Ole Miss have a serious shot at going undefeated, and I dont think that it will matter if Ole Miss does, so I think this comes down to Florida's chance of going undefeated. I'd put that at about 60%.
I think that the BIG XII champion will be determined by the OU/UT game with the winner going undefeated (and the loser having one loss). I'd put the chances of the BIG XII champ being undefeated at 90%.
Based on just these guesses, it looks like PSU has about a 25% chance of being ranked 1 or 2.
As far as the relative positions of the PAC-10, ACC champs and PSU, I happen to think that Joe Pa will get the nostalgia votes from most everyone, so I'd say that, given that they go undefeated, there is a pretty good chance that they are ahead here. If we assume 50% here, then PSU has about a 12% chance of playing in the BCS championship.
Now it all comes down to the chances you give PSU of winning assuming they make it to the championship game. As long as you think PSU would win 1 out of every 3 such games or better, you have at least a break even bet. Plus you get to pull like crazy for PSU. Plus you get to brag like crazy if it comes in.
1. PSU must win the Big 10 and be undefeated;
2. The SEC champ must have at least one loss;
3. The Big XII champ must have at least one loss;
4. PSU must be ranked ahead of the ACC and PAC 10 champs.
I'd guess that the winner of the PSU/OSU game will win the BIG 10 and that winner will go undefeated, so I'd put the probability of 1. at 50%.
I dont think any teams in the SEC other than Florida and Ole Miss have a serious shot at going undefeated, and I dont think that it will matter if Ole Miss does, so I think this comes down to Florida's chance of going undefeated. I'd put that at about 60%.
I think that the BIG XII champion will be determined by the OU/UT game with the winner going undefeated (and the loser having one loss). I'd put the chances of the BIG XII champ being undefeated at 90%.
Based on just these guesses, it looks like PSU has about a 25% chance of being ranked 1 or 2.
As far as the relative positions of the PAC-10, ACC champs and PSU, I happen to think that Joe Pa will get the nostalgia votes from most everyone, so I'd say that, given that they go undefeated, there is a pretty good chance that they are ahead here. If we assume 50% here, then PSU has about a 12% chance of playing in the BCS championship.
Now it all comes down to the chances you give PSU of winning assuming they make it to the championship game. As long as you think PSU would win 1 out of every 3 such games or better, you have at least a break even bet. Plus you get to pull like crazy for PSU. Plus you get to brag like crazy if it comes in.
I don't know that I would put down 2-hundy on that prop, but....not bad.....great upside....
GL to you bej.....:SIB
GL to you bej.....:SIB
PSU could go undefeated I suppose. But even with that the odds would be against them to be in the title game. And even with that I give them pretty much zero shot to beat any team they might play.
I suppose all considered the math is right for the play, but when its all said in done an L is an L.
I suppose all considered the math is right for the play, but when its all said in done an L is an L.
- Sep 29, 2007
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sorta ONLY osu beats usc then gets ripped by psu..no conf champ game and off the bcs champ vs fl..i see it very clearly.
- Sep 29, 2006
- 2,565
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sorta ONLY osu beats usc then gets ripped by psu..no conf champ game and off the bcs champ vs fl..i see it very clearly.
I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THIS AT ALL......:mj06:
