Saturday at the Park

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Saturday at the Park

The plot continues to thicken around baseball as July winds down with the division and playoff races tightening up. Two key AL matchups take place early in the day, as the Tigers visit the Yankees, while the Blue Jays host the Red Sox. Later in the afternoon, the three nationally televised FOX games all own a sub-plot inside the races. The highlighted matchup involves a former Cy Young Award looking to get back on track in Atlanta.

Mets at Braves (4:10 PM EST)

Two NL East rivals that are scratching and clawing their way toward the top of the Wild Card race meet up at Turner Field. Johan Santana has struggled since the start of June, with the Mets winning just three of his last eight starts. Santana has allowed 27 earned runs in that span, including losses in all four road outings.

The Mets ace has also had problems with the Braves since signing with New York in 2008. The Mets are 0-4 in Santana's starts against Atlanta, despite all four outings being quality ones. If you have followed Santana closely since his time in the Big Apple, two things have held him back - lack of run support and bullpen. The 'pen has improved this season with the acquisition of Francisco Rodriguez, but Santana has received just a measly three runs/start in 18 trips to the mound.

Thanks to the lack of run support and Santana's potential to dominate in any given trip to the mound, the Mets have hit the 'under' in 12 of his 18 starts, including seven of nine during the day.

Kenshin Kawakami has showed flashes of brilliance this season, but also has some questionable losses on his ledger. The Braves righty has road wins against the Red Sox, Phillies, and Cubs, but has lost to the Nationals, Reds, and Diamondbacks.

Kawakami had problems with run support from his lineup until recently, as the Braves are averaging 6 runs/game his last seven starts. Three of Kawakami's last four home starts have been quality outings, with the lone non-quality start coming against the Yankees (Kawakami left the game after getting hit by a line-drive in the fourth inning).

LVSC has opened up the Mets as a $1.20 road favorite, with the total set at 8.

Angels at A's (4:10 PM EST)

This series has been dominated by the road team this season (5-1 mark), while the Angels continue to score runs in bunches. Los Angeles has scored five runs or more in eight of its last nine games, while tallying at least nine runs on five occasions in this stretch.

Jered Weaver began the season as an 'under' machine, nailing nine of his first 11 starts. Lately, thanks to the Angels busting out at the plate, Weaver has drilled five straight 'overs.' The former Long Beach State star hasn't been as sharp recently, allowing 21 earned runs his last five starts, but he has struck out 104 batters while walking only 36 this season. Weaver has had some tough luck with the A's over the years, with the Angels winning two of his seven career starts. In that stretch, the Halos lost four times by one run, while Weaver delivered a quality start six times.

Vin Mazzaro had a promising start to his career by not allowing a run in his first two starts, wins over the White Sox and Orioles. Since then, the A's have lost Mazzaro's last six outings, while scoring just six runs in the process. That has translated into 'unders' in each of the right-hander's eight starts this season.

The Angels are a $1.30 road 'chalk', with the total listed at 8 ? according to LVSC.

Orioles at White Sox (4:10 PM EST)

The Pale Hose went on a nice hot streak before getting tripped up at Minnesota the final series of the first half. Chicago wrapped up a 13-game stretch against AL Central opponents with an 8-5 mark, but the Sox are just 3-5 the last eight games. The Orioles, meanwhile, continue to languish in the AL East cellar despite a 40-48 record. Baltimore owns the third-worst road record in baseball at 14-27.

Mark Buehrle looks for a bounce-back effort after getting shelled by the Twins his last time out. The White Sox lefty has been successful against the Orioles in his career, with Chicago winning six of his last eight starts. Buehrle has still been one of the top pitchers in the American League this season at 9-3, with an ERA of 3.66. However, Buehrle's day numbers compared to the night are contrasting. At night, the Sox lefty has been dominant, going 7-0, with an ERA of 3.02. Under the sun, Buehrle is just 2-3, as his ERA dips to 4.39. The 'under' has been a solid play in Buehrle's day starts, hitting six of nine times.

Jeremy Guthrie was expected to anchor this Baltimore staff, but injuries and ineffectiveness have slowed down that process. The Orioles right-hander has lasted only 14.1 innings his last three starts, while allowing 11 earned runs. Guthrie left his last start against the Mariners with a viral infection after only two innings, then missed his final scheduled outing before the All-Star Break with the same ailment.

Guthrie has terrible career numbers against the Sox, allowing 16 earned runs in four starts, with the O's winning just one of those games. Unlike Buehrle, Guthrie's better numbers are during the day, compiling a 3-1 record and ERA of 2.89 under the sun.

The White Sox have nailed plenty of 'unders' at home when facing a right-handed pitcher, doing so in 22 of 28 games at U.S. Cellular Field, including 10 of 13 during the day.

LVSC has installed the White Sox as a $1.50 home favorite, while the total is set at 9.
 

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Totals Report

Totals Report

Totals Report

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TOTALS REPORT
Team Total Home Away Streak
Arizona Diamondbacks 44 - 41 31 - 18 13 - 23 Under-1
Atlanta Braves 37 - 50 18 - 24 19 - 26 Over-1
Baltimore Orioles 44 - 41 19 - 26 25 - 15 Over-1
Boston Red Sox 36 - 45 16 - 25 20 - 20 Under-2
Chicago Cubs 36 - 49 21 - 24 15 - 25 Under-3
Chicago White Sox 38 - 51 15 - 31 23 - 20 Over-5
Cincinnati Reds 37 - 49 20 - 20 17 - 29 Under-1
Cleveland Indians 47 - 42 19 - 26 28 - 16 Under-2
Colorado Rockies 43 - 44 22 - 18 21 - 26 Over-3
Detroit Tigers 34 - 52 18 - 21 16 - 31 Under-1
Florida Marlins 45 - 41 27 - 18 18 - 23 Over-1
Houston Astros 37 - 48 17 - 27 20 - 21 Over-1
Kansas City Royals 38 - 46 24 - 20 14 - 26 Over-1
Los Angeles Angels 47 - 36 24 - 18 23 - 18 Over-1
Los Angeles Dodgers 45 - 41 19 - 22 26 - 19 Over-1
Milwaukee Brewers 44 - 43 19 - 25 25 - 18 Under-1
Minnesota Twins 38 - 47 28 - 18 10 - 29 Under-1
New York Mets 40 - 45 20 - 24 20 - 21 Over-1
New York Yankees 45 - 39 23 - 17 22 - 22 Under-1
Oakland Athletics 39 - 49 18 - 24 21 - 25 Over-1
Philadelphia Phillies 40 - 43 17 - 26 23 - 17 Over-1
Pittsburgh Pirates 37 - 49 14 - 25 23 - 24 Under-2
San Diego Padres 45 - 42 21 - 21 24 - 21 Over-3
San Francisco Giants 40 - 43 22 - 20 18 - 23 Under-1
Seattle Mariners 35 - 54 17 - 25 18 - 29 Under-4
St. Louis Cardinals 39 - 47 17 - 26 22 - 21 Under-2
Tampa Bay Rays 42 - 45 23 - 20 19 - 25 Over-3
Texas Rangers 33 - 53 16 - 28 17 - 25 Under-3
Toronto Blue Jays 43 - 46 20 - 22 23 - 24 Under-5
Washington Nationals 40 - 45 19 - 24 21 - 21 Under-3
 

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Umpire Report

Umpire Report

Umpire Report

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MLB UMPIRE REPORT
UMPIRE AVG RUNS GAMES UNDER OVER K/GAME BB/GAME K/BB
ADRIAN JOHNSON 8.89 19 7 9 12.4 7.5 1.7
ALFONSO MARQUEZ 10.00 2 1 1 14.5 7.5 1.9
ANDY FLETCHER 7.21 19 14 3 14.5 7.9 1.8
ANGEL CAMPOS 8.86 14 8 6 15.8 5.9 2.7
ANGEL HERNANDEZ 9.15 20 10 9 13.0 7.3 1.8
BILL HOHN 8.53 17 9 7 13.3 6.1 2.2
BILL MILLER 9.10 20 12 7 15.7 6.2 2.5
BILL WELKE 10.32 19 9 9 14.5 5.9 2.5
BOB DAVIDSON 8.76 17 8 8 14.1 7.1 2.0
BRIAN GORMAN 7.42 19 12 4 14.2 6.5 2.2
BRIAN KNIGHT 8.68 19 11 7 13.8 7.1 2.0
BRIAN O'NORA 7.42 19 11 7 14.0 6.0 2.3
BRIAN RUNGE 8.22 18 12 4 13.5 5.9 2.3
BRUCE DRECKMAN 9.75 16 6 8 12.0 7.6 1.6
BUCKNOR 9.84 19 8 11 13.4 7.5 1.8
CASEY MOSER 4.00 2 2 0 12.5 4.0 3.1
CHAD FAIRCHILD 9.06 18 10 8 14.2 6.4 2.2
CHARLIE RELIFORD 7.56 18 12 6 13.7 5.1 2.7
CHRIS GUCCIONE 8.47 19 10 8 14.7 7.1 2.1
CHRIS TILLER 6.00 2 2 0 11.0 7.0 1.6
CHUCK MERIWETHER 9.94 18 9 9 13.6 6.9 2.0
DALE SCOTT 9.55 20 8 11 13.8 6.0 2.3
DAMIEN BEAL 9.50 2 1 1 14.5 5.0 2.9
DAN BELLINO 4.67 3 3 0 16.7 3.3 5.0
DAN IASSOGNA 10.39 18 8 10 12.6 6.9 1.8
DANA DEMUTH 9.94 17 8 8 13.5 6.8 2.0
DELFIN COLON 7.33 3 2 0 12.0 4.7 2.6
DERRYL COUSINS 8.22 18 10 7 12.6 7.7 1.6
DOUG EDDINGS 9.39 18 8 10 14.7 6.2 2.4
ED HICKOX 14.33 3 2 1 10.7 10.0 1.1
ED MONTAGUE 11.80 5 1 4 14.4 6.8 2.1
ED RAPUANO 9.05 19 8 9 13.7 7.5 1.8
ERIC COOPER 10.71 21 7 14 14.4 6.7 2.1
FIELDIN CULBRETH 8.28 18 11 6 13.7 7.3 1.9
GARY CEDERSTROM 9.79 14 8 6 13.6 6.3 2.2
GARY DARLING 8.29 14 8 6 13.2 6.0 2.2
GERRY DAVIS 10.26 19 8 8 13.0 7.7 1.7
GREG GIBSON 10.58 12 5 7 10.9 6.7 1.6
HUNTER WENDELSTEDT 9.42 19 9 10 13.9 7.3 1.9
JAMES HOYE 9.23 22 14 7 12.0 7.3 1.7
JEFF KELLOGG 7.95 19 12 7 13.3 8.3 1.6
JEFF NELSON 10.59 17 6 10 13.2 7.1 1.9
JERRY CRAWFORD 11.57 14 6 7 14.9 9.1 1.6
JERRY LAYNE 8.28 18 10 7 14.2 6.6 2.1
JERRY MEALS 9.68 19 7 11 14.5 7.2 2.0
JIM JOYCE 8.40 20 13 7 13.7 8.4 1.6
JIM REYNOLDS 8.77 13 5 8 14.2 7.0 2.0
JIM WOLF 10.00 18 7 10 13.1 6.9 1.9
JOE WEST 9.32 19 9 9 13.7 7.7 1.8
JOHN HIRSCHBECK 8.50 20 14 6 13.9 6.6 2.1
KERWIN DANLEY 8.50 4 2 2 13.5 6.5 2.1
KEVIN CAUSEY 3.00 1 1 0 12.0 5.0 2.4
LANCE BARKSDALE 9.63 19 8 10 11.9 7.7 1.5
LARRY VANOVER 8.50 18 9 8 12.5 6.7 1.9
LAZ DIAZ 10.22 18 6 11 13.4 6.1 2.2
MARK CARLSON 9.06 16 9 7 13.8 7.3 1.9
MARK WEGNER 10.00 18 9 9 13.4 6.7 2.0
MARTY FOSTER 9.11 18 9 8 13.4 7.0 1.9
MARVIN HUDSON 8.05 20 10 10 15.5 7.2 2.2
MIKE DIMURO 9.17 18 9 9 14.7 6.6 2.2
MIKE ESTABROOK 8.25 8 4 4 13.0 5.1 2.5
MIKE EVERITT 10.42 19 8 11 12.8 7.4 1.7
MIKE MUCHLINSKI 8.00 2 1 0 14.5 8.5 1.7
MIKE REILLY 9.42 19 9 10 15.4 7.9 1.9
MIKE WINTERS 10.56 16 7 9 12.6 7.0 1.8
PAUL EMMEL 8.94 17 10 6 12.8 6.5 2.0
PAUL NAUERT 9.28 18 9 9 14.8 6.4 2.3
PAUL SCHRIEBER 9.72 18 7 7 14.6 8.4 1.7
PHIL CUZZI 9.45 20 11 8 14.9 7.2 2.1
RANDY MARSH 10.47 19 6 12 11.9 8.4 1.4
REYBURN 6.33 3 2 1 10.7 2.3 4.6
ROB DRAKE 9.15 20 10 10 14.6 5.9 2.5
RON KULPA 8.60 10 7 3 14.2 6.5 2.2
SAM HOLBROOK 8.29 17 10 7 14.2 7.1 2.0
SCOTT BARRY 7.95 20 14 6 12.3 7.0 1.8
TED BARRETT 8.58 19 12 6 12.8 6.6 1.9
TIM MCCLELLAND 12.00 21 4 13 13.7 8.4 1.6
TIM TIMMONS 11.00 19 7 10 14.1 7.5 1.9
TIM TSCHIDA 10.53 19 8 10 13.7 8.3 1.7
TIM WELKE 10.47 19 9 10 13.6 7.3 1.9
TODD TICHENOR 9.06 17 10 7 13.5 7.5 1.8
TOM HALLION 8.40 20 9 10 13.0 6.5 2.0
TONY RANDAZZO 8.55 20 11 8 12.4 5.3 2.4
WALLY BELL 9.10 20 11 8 13.8 7.3 1.9
 

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Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Saturday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Dan Haren (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Haren was even more dominant in his most recent start. If that?s possible.

The 28-year-old right-hander was nearly unhittable in his most recent outing, an 8-0 win against the Marlins in which he yielded just four hits, struck out 10 batters, walked one in the complete-game shutout. This season, Haren ranks in the Top 10 in the National League in wins, strikeouts, innings pitched, ERA, complete games and WHIP (walks + hits over innings pitched).

In nine starts since May 23, Haren (9-5, 2.01 ERA) has yielded no more than two earned runs in any outing and has lasted at least seven innings in all but one appearance.

"That sets off the fire alarms around here when he walks a guy," Arizona manager A.J. Hinch told the Associated Press.

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

The 25-year-old right-hander has emerged as a legitimate Cy Young contender. Johnson (8-2, 2.74 ERA) also ranks in the Top 10 in the NL in virtually every statistical category as he has been the most consistent pitcher on the Senior Circuit this year.

Johnson has allowed more than three earned runs only once in 19 starts this year and has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 outings.

In his most recent start, Johnson allowed only one earned run on seven hits in 6 2-3 innings as he struck out seven in an 8-1 win over the Diamondbacks.

Slumping

Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Rays)

It?s been the unlucky sevens that Kazmir has had to worry about. After allowing seven runs in consecutive starts in May before a stint on the DL sidelined him for June, Kazmir appeared to slowly be regaining his form. He allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in consecutive starts.

But then came the debacle on July 8 against Toronto. Kazmir was slammed for seven runs on nine hits in 6 1-3 innings as he gave up a pair of long balls.

If Kazmir can?t regain his form, the Rays have a huge hole in their rotation.

"It felt like I pitched way better than that," Kazmir, who hasn?t won since May 9, told the Associated Press. "It seems like I haven't gotten one break the whole year. I'm due."

Jason Hammel (Colorado Rockies)

Hammel?s 5-4 record and 4.43 ERA seem harmless enough. But he has been playing with fire and putting runners on base at an alarming rate.

In his past two starts, he?s allowed nine earned runs on 19 hits in just 8 2-3 innings. In his most recent outing against Atlanta, he last just three innings as he gave up five runs on nine hits.

Hammel?s 1.46 WHIP is the stat people should be looking at. The Rockies offense won?t be able to bail him out all season.

09wedge600.jpg
 

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Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Hot lines: Saturday's best MLB bets

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians

Let us take a second to introduce you to the team with the best record in one-run games in the American League: Seattle.

The Mariners have been amazing in close games this season, going 21-13 in contests decided by the slimmest of margins. The reason? The team?s pitching has been consitent all season. Seattle?s 3.72 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors and opponents are hitting just .245 against them. And when the Mariners have a late lead, you can lock it up. The team is tied for the major-league lead with 28 saves.

Cleveland, however, is just 12-12 in one-run games and has the worst pitching staff in the majors. Its 5.35 ERA is by far the poorest mark in the bigs. The Indians may have a slight edge in offense, but have a huge disadvantage in pitching and it won?t be enough as this team starts to pack it in during the dog days of summer.

Pick: Mariners

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (-109, 9)

So what do you get when you combine one of the best road-pitching teams in the majors and one of the best home-pitching teams in the majors with two mediocre offenses? Very few runs.

The pitching matchup of the Giants' Barry Zito against the Pirates' Charlie Morton might scare off some bettors, but in this case the stats don?t lie.

The Giants over/under record on the road this season is 17-22-3 and the team has gone under the total in six of its past 10 away games. On the other hand, the Pirates over/under record at home is 14-24-1. The under also has hit in eight of the Bucs past 10 home games.

Zito and Morton should be just good enough to stifle the opposing lineup and keep this one below the total.

Pick: Under 9

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